Connect with us

Deck of Dream Team

Matt Rowell – Deck of DT 2021

Should you start with the most popular player in the game?

  • Ben

Name: Matt Rowell
Team: Gold Coast Suns
Position: MID
Price: $574,000
Bye round: 12
2020 average: 70.8
2020 adjusted average:
88.4
2020 games played: 5
Predicted average: 105
Draft range: 3rd round

Click here for 2021 Fantasy prices.

Why should I pick him?

Every season there’s a player gifted to us by the fantasy gods, and this year it’s Matt Rowell.

The former first pick scored 64, 108, 104 and 78 in his first four games. That’s elite for a rookie if we’re talking 20-minute quarters, but he did it during corona-ball in 20% less game time. It was actually 80, 135, 130 and 97.5 if we adjust those numbers to BCV scoring, leaving him with an outrageous average of 110.6.

But now to the even juicier part.

The piglet was injured on 0 in Round 5, so his season average was actually 70.8 (88.4 adjusted). By itself that’d mean he’s 22.2 points under-priced, but he receives a further 15% discount because he only played 5 games. That $574,000 price tag is equated to a 75.2 BCV average, meaning he’s actually 35.4 points under-priced.

Now I don’t think Rowell will average 110 next year, but 105 is incredible value. Heck, he’s a must-have even if he only manages a ton.

If you’re one of the 51% of coaches who’ve picked him, you probably knew all of this already. But if you’re not, get him in ASAP!

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

I’m going to be grasping at straws here, but here goes.

Rowell injured his shoulder in Round 5 and underwent surgery in July, and past history says his tackling numbers will be down this season. Just look at the pig Tom Rockliff, whose fantasy scores plummeted after multiple shoulder reconstructions and only bounced back years later when he’d completely recovered. Rowell averaged 6.5 tackles from his 4 full games, but those 26 points a game could be in jeopardy.

A hard tag is also a concern. Rowell is clearly Gold Coast’s best midfielder and he’s sure to cop more attention this season. Geelong tagged him in just his fifth game, and it’s worth pointing out that he was injured halfway through the first quarter but had only managed a kick and a handball. He won’t have free reign ever again and will rely on his fellow midfielders to provide some protection.

But this still isn’t enough to prevent you from picking him. Maybe you don’t think his tank will cope with the 20-minute quarters? Or you’re banking on another injury on 0 points to impact 51% of the competition?

All else I can say is that you shouldn’t pick him if you’ve won two cars already and want a challenge, or you reckon it’s well and truly #PreussSZN and want Braydon to be the most selected player this season.

Deck of DT Rating.

ACE

Don’t be silly, just pick him.

Take a risk by fading somebody else if you have to, but not Rowell.

He’s priced at 75 and is excellent value if he only manages 100.

105 is a conservative estimate, however, and will see him rocket up more than $200,000 before season’s end.

FOLLOW US  ON TWITTER: @DTTALK for all things AFL Fantasy (and more). Got something to say about the deck or AFL Fantasy in general? Join the conversation and use the hashtag… #AFLFantasy.

Ben

Ben's a Swannies supporter whose love of fantasy footy far exceeds his skill. He coaches the Beaufort Beaus and is on the hunt for a hat. Is a fifth year breakout on the cards? Follow on Twitter: @BeaufortBeaus.

12 Comments

12 Comments

  1. Avatar

    Euman

    January 20, 2021 at 8:00 am

    Even if he went 90-95 at that price it’s a win

    • Avatar

      Ron Burgundy and the channel 2 news team

      January 20, 2021 at 8:20 am

      Spot on euman, he is still much younger than the pig, I think he will continue where he left off last year and as a team should improve. Hey euman hope you can join my league again this year when I create it and also what do you think of Oleg markov this year can you see him having an improved season at GC.

      • Avatar

        Blake

        January 20, 2021 at 1:13 pm

        Will he even get a game at Gold Coast?

      • Avatar

        Euman

        January 21, 2021 at 8:10 am

        Stay classy Ron yes love to join when you create. I’m not sure on Markov can’t say I’ve given him much thought sorry. I will have a look today give you my thoughts. That said I think I finished like 15,000th last year lol 😂

      • Avatar

        Euman

        January 21, 2021 at 9:00 am

        Hi Ron just had a look at Olav, spoke with my mad GC supporter and he agrees with Blake below is he even best 22? That said AFL & Fox both list him best 22 on half back, Jock Reynolds SC says interchange. Look if hes named then no issue if hes dropped you can easily swap to the great rookie on the rise you missed. Hes priced at his average with b/e of 49 avg 50. Interesting in his few games his low was only 40 odd and a high of 67. We need value in def and he is that, but let say he has JS, what do you see him scoring? if theres a 10 point improvement then its a slow burn but gives you points, if you see 20 points then its a win he ends up at 520k and you upgrade. Im on Cummings at the moment, now his JS is worse really with both AFL & fox not listing him as best 22, but Jock Reynolds SC does, again its wait and see if named round one. If both were named round 1 i personally would pick cummings as i think theres more scoring potential hoping for 20 point increase is priced at 46.

        hope that helps.

  2. Avatar

    22 guns

    January 20, 2021 at 3:32 pm

    a lock for me

  3. Avatar

    Lach

    January 20, 2021 at 7:44 pm

    G’day all, just thought id throw my current starting 18 team out there to get some opinions on it:

    Def: J.Lloyd, L Whitt, R Laird, Z Williams, H Young, H Chapman
    Mid: T Rock, P Danger, S Walsh, R Sloane, M Rowel, B Cunnington, W Phillips, T Powel
    Ruck: B Grundy, R Thilthorpe
    Fwd: T Phillips, J Caldwell, L Franklin, JUH, E Hollands, A Perkins

    Thoughts?

    • Avatar

      Euman

      January 21, 2021 at 8:14 am

      Not bad great def, mid range mid team forwards are little weak but that said this year with the salary cap it’s hard and seems the mid pricers may be the go obviously if a few fire you are on. My own team is weak in def and forward really. I don’t know who your R2 is? Can you elaborate on him?

      • Avatar

        daniel

        January 21, 2021 at 1:04 pm

        Thilthorpe is no.2 pick at draft taken by Adelaide. I don’t think that he will score enough points to justify when you could pick up Pruess. although he’s more expensive he can score massive and everyone is going with him so no risk. also thilthorpe has had groin injuries so i dont think he’ll play round 1

        • Avatar

          Lach

          January 22, 2021 at 11:37 am

          What have to change someone out to free up the money for Pruess and not sure who I should get rid of cause can’t really find a better replacement for any other position on the field.

  4. Avatar

    brian

    January 21, 2021 at 8:37 pm

    I like your punt on Cunnington, I’m heading that way too, but at M5 as I have stronger FWD

    • Avatar

      Scott

      January 21, 2021 at 10:25 pm

      Any news on Cunnington’s back injury?

Leave a Reply

More in Deck of Dream Team