Connect with us

Deck of Dream Team

Josh Dunkley – Deck of DT 2020

In just 15% of teams, Dunks could be a POD you need.

  • Avatar

Name: Josh Dunkley
Team: Western Bulldogs
Position: Midfielder
Price: $824,000
Bye round: 14
2019 average: 111.1
2019 games played: 22
Predicted average: 121
Draft range: Top 10.

Click here for 2020 Fantasy prices.

Why should I pick him?

Damn it feels good to have AFL Fantasy back, that was enough excitement alone. That excitement turned into arousal once I started researching Josh Dunkley’s prospects in 2020. Strap yourselves in because I’m not one to sit on the fence, so let’s see if I can ruin your current team structure in under 2 minutes.

Why should you pick him…? Hello? Here’s a recap of Josh Dunkley’s scoring prowess once he moved permanently into the midfield after Round 6. He scored 14 tons in 16 games. That’s a level of consistency rarely ever seen.

Of those 14 triple figure scores, 12 of them were over 118. Do not scratch your eyes, Dunkley really did score 120 (close enough) or more in 75% of his games to end the season. This included a period of over two months where he didn’t drop below 118. If we’re talking upside, scoring higher than the best averaging midfielder for 2019 in 75% of your games in the guts seems a decent place to start.

It wasn’t just his consistency. He has the ceiling too. Dunks posted three scores of 150+ including a ridiculous 189 points against the Demons on the back of 39 disposals and 15 tackles. He had over 30 disposals and 10 tackles in each of those monster scores.

To become a fantasy legend you need to do it all. Some players are natural ball magnets, others thrive on their defensive work and tackling. Rarely do you get players that do both. This guy does.

He averaged 33 disposals, 4.5 marks and 6.8 tackles per game over those final 16 rounds for an average of 124. One hundred and twenty-four. Dunkley is the ultimate fantasy player.

A lot of the time our most dominant fantasy midfielders can get held back by tags. Titch could have averaged 140 in 2018. However Dunkley finds himself in a midfield group next to Jack Macrae and Marcus Bontempelli. He has already proven that he can score beside them. It should also mean that hard tags will be few and far between. Regardless, you can’t stop him from tackling.

Last year’s level of scoring was no fluke either. Over the final 9 rounds of 2018 he moved into the midfield for an average of 112 with a lowest score of 96. This guy is a bonafide fantasy star, and a downright star of the competition.

The scariest part is that he has only just turned 23. Dane Swan, Tom Mitchell and Tom Rockliff were all yet to average over 110 at that age. There is absolutely no reason why Dunkley can’t get even better, let alone match the numbers he produced last season.

I don’t think paying full price for your premiums is a great idea. So why spend $824,000 on a midfielder? It’s crazy to say it, but I think he’s at least 10 points under priced. The sky is the limit.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

OK, so no selection is ever without its cons. Josh Dunkley comes with one major drawback, and it will be enough to put off a lot of coaches. Luke Beveridge. I don’t know if he just wants to keep his best midfielders on their toes, if it’s a load management plan or he just likes keeping them affordable in Fantasy, but it seems any Bulldogs midfielder can be shunted forward at any given time.

Last year we could afford to take that risk. Dunks was a forward priced at an average of 95. Even so, his average of 77.5 in the first six rounds of 2019 was an unmitigated disaster. We can gloss over that now given how he finished the season, but if you pay $824,000 for an uber premium midfielder and they sit forward for an average of 70, you can kiss your season goodbye as the rest of the competition snares him for a bargain once he returns to the guts.

The 40 point downside is a big one, and definitely a reason to shy away from picking Dunkley, or any Bulldog midfielder for that matter.

I would normally say that role is my only concern, but there is some serious Angus Brayshaw vibes here. I was thinking at this time last year there was no possible way that selection could go wrong! He still hasn’t put together a full 22 game season as a midfielder, and there’s always the possibility he could forget to play football altogether. I’m laughing as I type that paragraph. It’s complete rubbish.

Deck of DT Rating.

ACE.

Come on people, Josh Dunkley is nothing short of a Fantasy ace. Currently selected in just 15% of teams, if Dunkley comes out of the gates hot he could be averaging 130 and priced at nearly $900k after the first month. There’s upside here, which I love in a premium. His numbers don’t lie, I think you can make a legitimate argument that he was in the top 5 midfielders in the competition by the end of last year. It’s a spell at fine leg for anyone who thinks he’s not going to be a permanent midfielder in 2020.

He will be in the guts, and he will be in my team. An average of 120+ is not out of the question at all.

FOLLOW US  ON TWITTER: @DTTALK for all thing AFL Fantasy (and more). Got something to say about the deck? Use the hashtag… #DeckofDT.

17 Comments

17 Comments

  1. Avatar

    The Full Bonty

    January 29, 2020 at 7:21 am

    He’s too good to not play in the midfield now. He’s much better than Libba. And now the doggies have a forward line with Bruce, Naughton, Dale, Lloyd and Schache, there’s no room for Dunks up there anyway. He’s 120+ for sure.

    • Avatar

      Matt

      January 29, 2020 at 10:40 am

      Agree.

  2. Avatar

    Euman

    January 29, 2020 at 7:41 am

    Agree with Full Bonty I would ask though did dogs win more games with him mid? So how did they go for first 6 rounds. I am very tempted now to swap macrame to him pocket the cash

    • Avatar

      Euman

      January 29, 2020 at 7:44 am

      Cash diff is only $34k so no great allure there. It’s all about his role and I’m thinking Full Bonty is correct dogs have recruited forwards

    • Avatar

      SB

      January 29, 2020 at 9:45 am

      2 wins 4 losses in first 6 rounds, 10 wins and 6 losses for the rest of the season

      • Avatar

        Matt

        January 29, 2020 at 10:41 am

        Correct. Case closed.

  3. Avatar

    Ron Burgundy and the channel 2 news team

    January 29, 2020 at 10:00 am

    So where do we think Toby McLean sits in the team? Surely he is underpriced too and more likely to be a half forward / wing type player who rotates in the midfield as well. I’m deciding if he’s good enough for F4 and improve on last years failure.

    • Avatar

      Matt

      January 29, 2020 at 10:43 am

      I am a big Toby Mclean fan, and if there’s an injury or two that opens up a spot for him in the midfield then he’s straight in for me. But at the moment there’s just no room for him and I don’t think you can pick him.

    • Euman

      Euman

      January 29, 2020 at 1:29 pm

      Stay classy Ron

  4. Euman

    Euman

    January 29, 2020 at 1:47 pm

    So im going to do a versus as i have Macrae and after reading this article considered a swap to Dunkley.

    Figures are for entire 23 games including the one final, now the first half is 11 games and second is 12 includes the final in which dunks went poorly, but a games a game.

    As in this article the first 6 games before his move dunkley went at 77.5 and Macrae at 110.5 (low by his standards). As stated above dogs won 2 from 6

    Something changed after the break because at half year Macrae was only averaging 101 as games 7-11 he went at 90.4, and Dogs won only 2 from 5. Post byes they both went at 19 & 123 respectively, and dogs won 8 from 12 so i dont follow the team but obviously the game plan changed and or all players were fit and firing.

    $ Games AVG first half Second half Last 5
    Macrae $858,000 23 116.22 101.36 129.83 125.60
    Dunkley $824,000 23 110.00 95.64 123.17 115.60

    At the end of my analysis with only $34k between them i am going to personally stick with Macrae.

    • Avatar

      Oskar

      January 29, 2020 at 5:11 pm

      por qué no los dos?

      • Avatar

        Euman

        January 29, 2020 at 7:08 pm

        Why not both indeed good question

        • Avatar

          The Full Bonty

          January 29, 2020 at 8:11 pm

          Yes agree with Oskar. Basically what your data are saying is that they were the two best midfielders, factoring in durability, in the second half of the year.

    • Avatar

      Matt

      January 30, 2020 at 12:39 am

      Can’t really go wrong with either. I’m team Dunkley.

  5. Euman

    Euman

    January 29, 2020 at 1:52 pm

    sorry typo should read “Post byes they went at 129 Macrae & 123 Dunkley, “

  6. Avatar

    Adonis

    January 29, 2020 at 3:25 pm

    Gus 2.0

  7. Avatar

    bort22

    January 30, 2020 at 12:28 am

    100% agree, was my first mid picked, even before Titch. Should go 120+ this year unless Bevo does something moronic.

Leave a Reply to Matt Cancel reply

More in Deck of Dream Team