AFL Trade Period 2019 and Fantasy
Warnie’s Fantasy spin on every move of the trade period.
The Telstra AFL Trade Period is over and Warnie takes a look at every move from free agents to team-to-team trades with his AFL Fantasy glasses on. Discuss your thoughts in the comments!
Projected prices are based on an approximate magic number of 7265 (an approximation based on last season’s number) which also assumes that the salary cap will be around $13,000,000, close to the official AFL salary cap for 2020 (we don’t have official confirmation at time of writing). Discounts have been applied following last year’s formula where appropriate.
LATEST UPDATE: Wednesday October 16, 10:35pm.
JAMES AISH TO FREMANTLE
TRADE #30 – Wednesday October 16, 7:45pm
2019 AVERAGE: 66.9 (13 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $486,000
FANTASY VERDICT: I’ve always been an Aish believer, but he’s been a let down after his promising debut season return of 72.4 from 21 games. Since then it has been mediocre with a 66.2 average from his 77 games playing no more than 15 in a year since his first season. SHOULD IMPROVE NUMBERS, BUT PASS.
AIDEN BONAR TO NORTH MELBOURNE
TRADE #27 – Wednesday October 16, 7:38pm
2019 AVERAGE: 42 (2 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $326,000
FANTASY VERDICT: The 20-year-old has played just six games for an average of 53.3. Far from setting the world on fire as a forward, his 84 and 78 average in the NEAFL the last two seasons has probably been a lot about role. You’d think the Roos will give him a chance to run through the midfield and therefore could be a low-end mid-priced forward option next season in Classic. It will all depend on what cash cows are available for us. ONE TO WATCH.
JOSH JENKINS TO GEELONG
TRADE #26 – Wednesday October 16, 7:32pm
2019 AVERAGE: 75 (11 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $545,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Good move for the Cats and we will be looking to Jenkins once again to be a streamable option against teams where he has a favourable match up. Good for a mid-70-to-80 average while pumping out those 85+ type scores as he did a dozen times in the 33 games he played in the last two seasons. LATE DRAFT SELECTION, STREAMING OPTION.
DAN BUTLER TO ST KILDA
TRADE #25 – Wednesday October 16, 7:30pm
2019 AVERAGE: 48.4 (7 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $376,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Will receive a 9% discount to price him just over 50 points (discount applied to his 56.9 average from 2018). Butler made us a bit of coin when he played 20 games in 2017 at an average of 56 as an essentially mature-aged pick in the Premiership winning Tigers team. Doubtful he has enough upside to make him a Fantasy option. PASS.
ZAK JONES TO ST KILDA
TRADE #24 – Wednesday October 16, 7:26pm
2019 AVERAGE: 82.8 (18 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $602,000
FANTASY VERDICT: The 24-year-old played mostly on the half-back and wing in his six years at the Swans. Jones enjoyed his best Fantasy season to date averaging 22.4 disposals, 4 marks and 3.9 tackles thanks to more time playing as an inside midfielder. Eight of his games returned scores of 90+. The issue will be defining his role as we will need to monitor this over the pre-season and whether he is MID only, or if he retains the DEF status from this year. FULLY PRICED.
TOM CUTLER TO ESSENDON
TRADE #24 – Wednesday October 16, 7:19pm
2019 AVERAGE: 80.3 (3 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $486,000
FANTASY VERDICT: If only he was anything other than MID only, Cutler would be on the radar as he’ll be priced at around 66 due to a discount. Averaged 85 in 2018 and went at 97 this year in the NEAFL. Everyone has had Cutler at one point or another in Draft. He’ll reguarly put together 2-3 very good games and we jump on as a free agent, then pumps out a 50. Case in point in 2018 he scored 97, 101, 142 from round 14 and then dropping a 59. Even this year he scored 91 in round 7, his second game of the year, before being dropped. You can take that from a forward, but as a MID, no thanks. SOME UPSIDE, BUT NOT AS A MID.
ALEX KEATH TO WESTERN BULLDOGS
TRADE #23 – Wednesday October 16, 7:10pm
2019 AVERAGE: 67.1 (18 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $487,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Second tall timber added to the Dogs, this time at the other end of the ground. Pumped out some playable scores for Draft coaches, mostly when he took double-figure marks, but consitency is always going to be an issue for a 198cm key defender. PASS.
JOSH BRUCE TO WESTERN BULLDOGS
TRADE #22 – Wednesday October 16, 5:58pm
2019 AVERAGE: 58.4 (22 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $424,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Played 22, had two scores over 80. PASS.
ANDREW PHILLIPS TO ESSENDON
TRADE #21 – Wednesday October 16, 5:01pm
2019 AVERAGE: 80.4 (5 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $496,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Phillips has always been a bit-part player. Never has he delivered any Fantasy numbers of note… until this year. He played as the king pin in his five games this season, opening with 83 and 84 over the first two weeks. He came back into the side for a 91 before finishing the season with 77 and 67. Phillips averaged 30 hitouts and could possibly take over from Bellchambers as Essendon’s No.1 ruck. At this point, though, you wouldn’t think that’s what the Bombers want. Maybe worth handcuffing with TBC if you’re willing to leave your rucks until super late in Draft. NOT UNLESS HE BECOMES THE NO.1 RUCK.
MARC PITTONET TO CARLTON
TRADE #20 – Wednesday October 16, 4:52pm
2019 AVERAGE: 54 (2 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $298,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Pretty much ends up being the ruck depth for the Blues with Phillips out the door. Can’t see them playing both. NO UNLESS KREUZER GOES DOWN.
BLAKE ACRES TO FREMANTLE
TRADE #19 – Wednesday October 16, 3:39pm
2019 AVERAGE: 67.5 (19 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $490,000
FANTASY VERDICT: I’m bullish on Acres at the Dockers after being a frustrated Draft owner this year. Sounds like he’ll most likely retain his FWD status and push up on the wing and be around the ball a bit more than he has at the Saints. Fingers crossed he can go at 80+ like he did in 2018 which would see him a dozen or so points under-priced. All about watching the pre-season and hoping the Dockers play a possession game where he can average 20+ disposals and push his marks/tackles to 5 each and be a very handy FWD pick. PRE-SEASON WATCH.
Acres: Wherever my role is I’m happy to play but I’m looking forward to settling on a wing or as an inside mid. #foreverfreo
— Fremantle Dockers (@freodockers) October 16, 2019
BRAD HILL TO ST KILDA
TRADE #19 – Wednesday October 16, 3:39pm
2019 AVERAGE: 88.6 (22 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $644,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Brad Hill is a Draft special and has posted quite servicable numbers at the Dockers. 94, 81 and 89 since switching over from the Hawks. While it is hard to predict much upside for the 26-year-old, he’ll once again be taken later in drafts. LATE DRAFT.
CALLUM AH CHEE TO BRISBANE
TRADE #18 – Wednesday October 16, 3:29pm
2019 AVERAGE: 62 (1 game)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $329,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Ah Chee hasn’t done a lot in his 45 game career that has excited Fantasy coaches. His highest score of 92 is one of only three scores he’s posted over 80. Not great, but he’ll be priced at 45 for those who might think he can a) get a regular game and b) post a 70+ average. PASS.
JACK STEVEN TO GEELONG
TRADE #17 – Wednesday October 16, 3:15pm
2019 AVERAGE: 76 (7 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $639,000
FANTASY VERDICT: As Steven only played 7 games this year, he gets a 9% discount… but it is applied to his 2018 average of 96.6. This prices him at 88, which is well below his 2015 average of 111.5 (which got him on the cover of the AFL Record) and subsequent averages of 104, 94 and 97. While somewhere in the high 90s is a possibility, we will need to see that he’s a chance for some midfield clock to be able to make this happen. A big part of why I’m bullish on Steven being a Fantasy option in 2020 is that he will hopefully be in a better headspace at ‘home’ andthat he will most likely have FWD status! With so many top forwards losing their FWD eligibility, he may find himself in the top 10… if not higher. ONE TO WATCH FOR ROLE.
LEWIS TAYLOR TO SYDNEY SWANS
TRADE #16 – Wednesday October 16, 3:10pm
2019 AVERAGE: 70.4 (5 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $446,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Unlikely to trouble the Fantasy scorers much even with some added opportunity at the Swans. Best average of 78 and while he is likely to hold his FWD status. DISCOUNTED IN CLASSIC, BUT A HARD PASS.
ZAC SMITH TO GOLD COAST
TRADE #15 – Wednesday October 16, 3:08pm
2019 AVERAGE: 73.3 (3 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $421,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Heading back to the Suns, it’s going to be hard to see Smith get much of a chance with a fully fit Witts. Gets a decent discount to price him at under 60, which is well below the 85 he averaged in 2017. NOT UNLESS WITTS IS INJURED.
DARCY CAMERON TO COLLINGWOOD
TRADE #13 – Tuesday October 15, 4:15pm
2019 AVERAGE: DNP
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $170,000
FANTASY VERDICT: The 24-year-old heads to the Pies probably hoping that Brodie Grundy gets injured. Clearly a depth player who will spend plenty of time in the VFL where he’ll most likely dominate. In 2018 Cameron averaged 142 from 19 games in the NEAFL and went at 96 this year. He’s just played the one game for the Swans for 27 points. What else is there to say? BENCH HIM… AGAIN.
HUGH GREENWOOD TO GOLD COAST
TRADE #12 – Tuesday October 15, 2:50pm
2019 AVERAGE: 78.2 (14 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $568,000
FANTASY VERDICT: While Greenwood might be priced fairly in Classic, there is some potential upside due to what his role may be at the Suns and the fact that he is some chance to have MID/FWD status in 2020 after gaining FWD during this year. He’s shown the capacity to score 90 mostly thanks to his tackling… which, as a Sun, he may need to do a bit! PRE-SEASON WATCH IF FWD STATUS, ESPECIALLY GOT DRAFT.
PADDY RYDER TO ST KILDA
TRADE #11 – Tuesday October 15, 2:50pm
2019 AVERAGE: 70.2 (17 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $510,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Turning 32 ahead of the 2020 season, any Fantasy relevance is behind Ryder. His best season was his second at the Power when he went at 91.7. The major factor about this move is what it might mean for Rowan Marshall who had an epic year when he came into the Saints’ lineup and was their main man in the ruck. Ryder will be behind him, but could take some ruck minutes and therefore points from Marshall. PASS.
— Fantasy Freako (@FantasyFreako) October 15, 2019
DOUGAL HOWARD TO ST KILDA
TRADE #11 – Tuesday October 15, 2:50pm
2019 AVERAGE: 54.2 (15 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $394,000
FANTASY VERDICT: The key position player was played at both ends of the ground this year and will be used as a defender at the Saints. While he has slightly better numbers when playing down back, marks the main reason for this, I don’t think many will be looking to Howard as a Fantasy option. PASS.
BILLY FRAMPTON TO ADELAIDE
TRADE #10 – Tuesday October 15, 2:30pm
2019 AVERAGE: 38.5 (2 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $287,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Depth forward/ruck for the Crows to sit behind Reilly O’Brien but may sit up forward (when/if Jenkins goes). The soon to be 23-year-old has played three AFL games for scores of 52, 63 and 14 where he has been up forward. Frampton has average 80, 79 and 85 in the last three years in the SANFL with the most recent seeing his hitout numbers drop significantly as he’s been playing as a forward. He’ll be priced like a top priced rookie and if the stocks are low for rookie rucks, he might be worth looking at but still, the cash is going to be better to be saved with a non-playing bench ruck. IF PLAYING HE WILL MAKE SOME CASH ON THE BENCH.
SAM JACOBS TO GWS GIANTS
TRADE #9 – Tuesday October 15, 2:19pm
2019 AVERAGE: 80.4 (5 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $503,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Reilly O’Brien kept big Sauce out of the Crows’ team for the majority of the season, restricitng him to just five games… he averaged 108 in the SANFL while out of the senior team. Jacobs has generally been a consistent performer in Fantasy, being safe for a high 80s-90s average. All looks promising with the move to the Giants if he is the No.1 ruckman considering he has only missed 4 games since 2012 (let’s forget about this year) and getting a 15% discount on an already lower average. Shane Mumford apparently triggered a contract extension for 2020 which is a worry, but you’d think big Mumm will be depth with the retirement of Dawson Simpson. Coaches would want him to be the main man as a mid-priced Classic option and a decent later ruck pick up. CONSIDER IF NO MUMFORD.
JONATHON PATTON TO HAWTHORN
TRADE #7 – Tuesday October 15, 12:49pm
2019 AVERAGE: DNP
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $358,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Patton will go into 2020 witha 30% discount because he didn’t play this year. The discount will be applied to his 2018 average of 70.4 (his second best return in his career, just shy of 2017’s 71.3), making him priced at under 50 in Fantasy Classic. This probably isn’t enough considering he’s a low 70s guy at best… and he’s coming off three knee reconstructions. Patton has been training for most of the back-half of the season, so he should be good to go, but not a Fantasy option. PASS.
EDDIE BETTS TO CARLTON
TRADE #6 – Monday October 14, 2:41pm
2019 AVERAGE: 58.5 (21 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $425,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Back in 2016, Eddie had his best Fantasy season averaging 79 from 22 games. This was servicable coming off your bench in Draft… just, but with him only averaging over 70 four times in his 15 year career, it’s hard to see Eddie pumping out much more than a 60 average. Betts has been durable missing 7 games in his time at the Crows and playing 21 or 22 games 10 times. The key is a) who he is keeping out of the team… and b) which player moves up the ground now that Eddie is in the forward pocket. PASS.
ED LANGDON TO MELBOURNE
TRADE #4 – Friday October 11, 12:03pm
2019 AVERAGE: 92 (22 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $668,000
FANTASY VERDICT: As a draft owner of Langdon, I was stoked with his eight tons, four of which came in the Fantasy finals which helped lead me to the Bacon Cup premiership without my first round pick Stephen Coniglio. Anyway, enough about my epic victory. Langdon has improved his Fantasy output across his five year career to knock out 88 and 92 in the last two seasons that has seen him only miss one game. Playing as a wingman, his 25 disposals and six marks this season saw him score below 87 on just six occasions this year. The downside is that he is of course MID only and there’s plenty better. Maybe there’s some improvement in him, but it is unlikely and he will forever be a depth player for Draft squads. Angus Brayshaw on the otherhand could be a major beneficiary next year as Langdon and Tomlinson running the wings could push him back in the middle. DRAFT MID BENCH OPTION.
SAM FROST TO HAWTHORN
TRADE #3 – Friday October 11, 11:27am
2019 AVERAGE: 52.4 (22 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $381,000
FANTASY VERDICT: I’m not going to bore you here. This is a hard pass… always has been and always will be. The only positive thing could be his inclusion may mean that James Sicily may learn to Fantasy again. UH, NO.
Sam Frost to the Hawks will surely release James Siciliy to play the fantasy conducive role of taking uncontested marks in space? Sicily shared his time evenly this season playing on general forwards and key forwards. #AFLTrade #2020AFLProspectus
— Fantasy Freako (@FantasyFreako) October 11, 2019
GRANT BIRCHALL TO BRISBANE LIONS
UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENT – Thursday October 10, 12:26am
2019 AVERAGE: 73 (3 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $419,000
FANTASY VERDICT: The Hodgey replacement? Maybe not exactly, but he could play out a couple of years in the Lions den running off half-back and returning servicable Fantasy numbers. He’s averaged over 80 across his 248 game career finishing with season averages between 81 and 90 between 2011-17. Birchall’s last couple of years have been hampered by injury and this year returned for three games with limited time on ground for returns of 80 (66% TOG), 73 (71% TOG) and an injured 66 (46% TOG). Definitely overs what the 58 he’ll be priced at with discounts in Classic. The backline is a place where we can have a crack at some midpriced players, so with a full pre-season, Birchall could be a very solid option if he goes at 80+ like he usually does. PRE-SESON WATCHLIST.
TIM KELLY TO WEST COAST
TRADE #1 – Wednesday October 9, 1:41pm
2019 AVERAGE: 96.8 (22 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $703,000
FANTASY VERDICT: The trade that Kelly wanted to happen last year was the first real move of the Trade Period. Kelly was the sixth most selected player at season end this year, second behind Dangerfield for forwards. In the first 15 rounds he was averaging 103 with eight scores 108 or more including five 120+ and a top score of 141. In the last eight rounds he only scored one ton (103) averaging 86. The big things for 2020 is always the unknown of a new team (Gaff, Shuey, Yeo, etc) and the fact he will be MID only. While he could quite easily average more than 100 going into his third season in the AFL system, he’s someone you wouldn’t take a chance on in Classic and make him an upgrade target if he turns it on. If the 100 average is what you predict, he can knock on the door of the top 20 MIDs if you’re thinking draft. Too much risk for me to predict a mega year. Apart from the Eagles being a bit more of an unknown and points being spread (Sheed and Redden likely to regress), there will be a hole in the Cats’ midfield that we will be keeping an eye on this pre-season. M3 IN DRAFT, WAIT AND SEE IN CLASSIC.
ADAM TOMLINSON TO MELBOURNE
UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENT – Monday October 7, 5:45pm
2019 AVERAGE: 77.3 (22 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $562,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Having missed just one game in the last three years, the last two seasons has seen Tomlinson play mostly as a wingman and returning averages of 74.2 and 77.3. This year his scoring was less sporadic however sittign next to his three tons were five scores under 60. Tomlinson will be a MID and continue that wing role at the Dees which could Angus Brayshaw pushed back in the middle rather than way out on the outside which hampered his scoring this year (especially too if they get Ed Langdon). While a new home and new opportunity could see some improvement for Tomlinson, there is a lot of unknown about the Dees and their game plan to even risk picking Tomlinson. PASS.
CAM ELLIS-YOLMEN TO BRISBANE LIONS
UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENT – Saturday October 5, 3:30pm
2019 AVERAGE: 87.9 (10 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $639,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Has only played 39 games since making his debut in 2014. A mixture of injury… and not making the side has been the reason for this. Does he become a walk-up for the Lions? Their midfield was pretty good this year. 2019 saw CEY enjoy his best Fantasy average, beating last year’s 81.5. A big 134 vs West Coast helped bump his average for this year. It’s hard to see him maintaining this average let alone improving. He’ll once again be a very temping Draft option off the free agents. VERY LIMITED FANTASY UPSIDE.
BRANDON ELLIS TO GOLD COAST
RESTRICTED FREE AGENT – Saturday October 5, 3:15pm
2019 AVERAGE: 84.7 (20 games)
2020 PROJECTED PRICE: $615,000
FANTASY VERDICT: Started his career as a DEF in Fantasy and through his best patch (averages of 96, 103 and 90) he was listed as MID only basically because of his wing role. He’s had DEF status the last two seasons, after gaining it in a DPP addition in 2017. Ellis predominantly played a wing role this year, which is where his best Fantasy output comes from. Six tons this year with half of his 20 games registering 85+, but was let down by scores of 46, 47, 56 and 50… and then a finals series of 66, 59 and 30 in the GF. Ellis is a small chance to hold DEF status, but is likely to be a MID… and hold little relevance despite the possibility of a bump with a full-time wing role that will let his outside game florish. WORTH A LOOK IN DRAFT – ESPECIALLY IF A DEF, BUT DON’T REACH.
KEY TRADE PERIOD DATES
Friday, 4 October: Restricted free agency offer and unrestricted free agency period starts.
Monday, 7 October 9am: Telstra AFL Trade Period starts.
Thursday, 10 October 5pm: Close of restricted free agency offer and unrestricted free agency period.
Sunday, 13 October: AFL restricted free agency matching offer three-day period ends.
Wednesday, 16 October 7.30pm (tbc): Telstra AFL Trade Period closes (for exchange of players).
Friday, 22 November 2pm: Telstra AFL Trade Period closes (for exchange of selections only).
Discuss the trades and any Fantasy value you find in players at their new club in the comments.