Week fifteen is complete and most of us are sporting a near all “premo” team, or that’s what we thought! I have seen some really disappointing and low scores from these so called “premium players” and to compound this, Walsh and Stack showed us this week that some rooks still have some meat left on their bones. What a champion Walsh has been, from all the fantasy coaches, we say “Thank you very, very much for your service, and go get that rising star award!”.
From the results that I have seen from the twitterverse, the DEF line is again the bone of our contention and the vain of our AFL Fantasy existence. What a bunch of expensive under-performing players, you are all on notice! This week some of us copped 50’s and 60’s from our premium defenders. Sicily owners were relieved to see him on the back-line only to be disappointed by his 59. Speaking of expensive under-performers last week, there were coaches that were expecting a big score from Dangerfield as their captain, but he also let his owners down. However, by far the biggest question facing most coaches is “what do we do with Gawn if he is out next week?”.
Hopefully, I can provide you with some options moving forward. After fifteen weeks of data, we can start to see definite trends from elite coaches that form the top 100 in AFL Fantasy. Note that the following data and information will focus on the most selected players in the top 100 AFL Fantasy coaches. I have filtered the statistics below to count only the players that are “on-field” and hence bench players are not counted. I will also attach a copy of the full summary of the data in a PDF format for your complete reference. After fifteen rounds, “How do I compare with the top 100 AFL Fantasy Coaches?”. My team has 16/22 of the vanilla selection as per listed below. Thank you to my mate @Fryzigg for providing me with the raw data, he has certainly saved me time and potential RSI from all the cutting and pasting of data.
Lloyd (100%), C. Daniel (77%), R. Laird (70%), B. Houli (68%), J. Sicily (52%), & G. Logue (45%)
B. Crouch (95%), J. Macrae (86%), A. Treloar (76%), A. Gaff (74%), J. Kelly (74%), Z. Merrett (73%), T. Taranto (70%), & S. Coniglio (52%)
Grundy (90%) & M. Gawn (79%)
T. Boak (98%), T. Kelly (97%), P. Dangerfield (95%), J. Dunkley (90%), D. Martin (63%), & J. Worpel (62%)
D1 J. Lloyd (109) $746K Ownership 55% Top 100 Ownership 100%
D2 C. Daniel (97) $683K Ownership 16% Top 100 Ownership 77%
D3 R. Laird (97) $672K Ownership 44% Top 100 Ownership 70%
D4 B. Houli (104) $730K Ownership 27% Top 100 Ownership 68%
D5 J. Sicily (87) $573K Ownership 16% Top 100 Ownership 52%
D6 G. Logue (72) $334K Ownership 24% Top 100 Ownership 45%
These six players represent the most common premium defenders in the top 100. There will be 77 coaches in the top 100 that are looking to offload Daniel this week. He looks like missing as much as a month from a hamstring injury. Five out of the six players on ground are premium defenders, with Logue rounding up the defence. The top 6 averaging defenders consist of Whitfield (117), Lloyd (109), Houli (104), Laird (97), Daniel (97) and Stewart (96). Spoilers, the DEF line is the only line that still has a rookie on ground, the MID, RUC and FWD line boost an all premium line-up. With Whitfield a possibility to come in next week, I would suggest that the coaches that have huge Warne-chests will make that rookie to Whitfield transition. However, as much as Whitfield is an enticing option, don’t sell the bank just so you can get him next week. Unique options such as Hurn($625 – 94), Stewart ($623 – 96) & Salem ($637 – 96) can provide you with that average boost in the back-line without breaking the bank. You want an even more smokey/unique DEF player? Owned by 4 % of the top 100 coaches Z. Jones is back doing his thing in the middle and the old saying goes, you gotta risk it for the biscuit.
M1 B. Crouch (110) $768K Ownership 45% Top 100 Ownership 95%
M2 J. Macrae (112) $775K Ownership 37% Top 100 Ownership 86%
M3 A. Treloar (114) $765K Ownership 27% Top 100 Ownership 76%
M4 A. Gaff (113) $761K Ownership 20% Top 100 Ownership 74%
M5 J. Kelly (122) $866K Ownership 18% Top 100 Ownership 74%
M6 Z. Merrett (108) $747K Ownership 15% Top 100 Ownership 73%
M7 T. Taranto (115) $804K Ownership 16% Top 100 Ownership 70%
M8 S. Coniglio (108) $751K Ownership 25% Top 100 Ownership 52%
These eight players represent the most common midfielders in the top 100. In contrast, the top 8 averaging pure mids consist of J. Kelly (122), Taranto (115), Treloar (114), Gaff (113), Macrae (112), Duncan (112), B. Crouch (110), & Coniglio – Z. Merrett (108). If you missed out on Macrae’s bottom price, he is a little bit harder to get now. The last three weeks has seen his Top 100 ownership jump from 15% to 86%. What about the continuing disappointed that is Brayshaw? I bet new owners that jumped on him after the bye are thinking “cheap for a reason”. If you are in the top 100 and you are looking to go up the ranking why not take a leap of faith on selecting unique players such as Oliver (106), who is owned by only 3 of the top 100 coaches. Duncan had a quiet week, only managing to score 99, he is currently the 6th highest averaging mid and he is still a reasonable unique, only owned by 27% of the top 100. Merrett, Taranto, and J. Kelly all still have low ownership overall but have significantly higher ownership in the top 100. If you have money in the bank, its really hard to go pass J. Kelly.
R1 B. Grundy (122) $868K Ownership 63% Top 100 Ownership 90%
R2 M. Gawn (110) $807K Ownership 48% Top 100 Ownership 79%
Now, depending on the news on Max Gawn, there are a huge number of coaches, both overall and in the top 100 that will need to make a hard decision this week. What to do with Max Gawn? Aside from Grundy and Gawn, the top averaging rucks this year are Witts (101), Marshall (99) and R. O’Brien with an average of 94! That is the same average as Walsh and to boot he has made a total of $418K (Walsh – $363K) for coaches that selected him when he took over the ruck duties from Jacobs. There are 6 coaches in the top 100 that still hold the ROB trump card, out of this 6 coaches, 3 of them has ROB sitting on the bench ready to go. What a luxury move that is for these three coaches.
Will you trade Gawn if he is out? If you are going for overall rankings, you need to be aggressive, that amount of money on the bench at this time of year will be unforgiving for your ranking. I am a Gawn owner and if he is injured, I will be following the majority and select Marshall as R2. Not only does this free-up cash, it will also provide me the choice to move him to the forward line once Gawn is fully fit.
F1 T. Boak (113) $737K Ownership 37% Top 100 Ownership 98%
F2 T. Kelly (103) $709K Ownership 44% Top 100 Ownership 97%
F3 P. Dangerfield (106) $732K Ownership 63% Top 100 Ownership 95%
F4 J. Dunkley (104) $795K Ownership 28% Top 100 Ownership 90%
F5 D. Martin (97) $733K Ownership 30% Top 100 Ownership 63%
F6 J. Worpel (92) $632K Ownership 33% Top 100 Ownership 62%
These six players represent the most common premium forwards in the top 100 teams. The top 6 averaging forwards thus far are Boak (113), Dangerfield (106), Dunkley (104), T. Kelly (103), Marshall (99). Billings (98). If you took a punt of both Jack Ziebell and D. Martin prior to the byes, you would be over the moon on your return of investment. They have both increased in value and more importantly produced a more than acceptable last 3 round average, 123 for Martin and 116 for Ziebell. There are unique options in the forward line such as Walters, Heeney and Gray but it would take a brave coach to pull that move. My suggestion for the forward line, keep on top of @RoyDT rolling 22 and @CalvinDT scale of hardness and don’t go too cute.
If you want a copy of the full analysis in a PDF format. Download a copy here.
How did you compare?
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