Hold or Fold – Ep. 196

A lot of experienced AFL Fantasy coaches will tell you to back your premiums. “They’ll come good” they say. They suggest to build your team around the out of form players and it will be better in the long run.

Up until this week, Dayne Zorko (MID, $576,000) owners could be forgiven for not heeding this advice. The man who averaged 114 last season was having a stinking start to the year averaging 66.5 and with his scoring gradually getting worse with a run of 72, 63, 55 and 43 up until round six.

His 176 on the weekend was not only the highest score of the round, it was a reward for the 3.9 per cent of coaches who opted not to trade him out in Fantasy Classic.

Already this week he is one of the most popular players traded in after dropping a total of $229,000, the most of any player this season. A breakeven of 58 means Zorko’s price will be heading north of the $576,000 he is currently valued at.

Zorko faces the Bulldogs this week and last time he played them at Etihad Stadium, he scored 157.

Jack Billings (FWD, $551,000) appears in more than 25 per cent of teams and his coaches have been frustrated by his season to date. Scores of 64 and 66 in the past fortnight has seen his price drop to $115,000 below where he started and he is showing he is a long way from the premium selection many initially thought.

The Saint averaged 94.5 last year in what was a breakout season for the 22-year-old.

A key statistic is that he averaged more than 100 in St Kilda’s wins last year. In their only win of 2018, he scored 123. From round seven Billings averaged 101.3 after starting the year averaging 76.6. This year he currently averaging 78.6. Could we see a turn around?

Another player who coaches expected more from is Luke Parker (MID, $623,000). The Swan was seen as under-priced at the start of the year due to the fact he has averaged 110 previously.

A midfield spot is wasted on a supposed premium Fantasy player who has scored 73, 80 and 73 in the last three weeks.

Similar to Billings, Parker’s season started slowly (no tons in first seven weeks of 2017) but improved from this point. The 26-year-old went at 108 points per game from round eight.

Will history repeat? The Traders discuss whether you should hold or fold under-performing stars on this week’s episode of the Official AFL Fantasy Podcast.

 

Also in this week’s podcast:

• All the action from round seven
• News from around the grounds, including Magoos News
• Trade tips for round eight
• Your questions answered

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