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Joshua Kelly – Deck of DT 2018

He knocked back North and could improve even more in 2018.

Image result for josh kelly s.afl.com.au 2017Name: Joshua Kelly
Team: Greater Western Sydney
Position:Ā MID
AFL Fantasy: $795,000
Bye Round:Ā 13
2017 Average:Ā 112.9
2017 Games Played: 21
Predicted Average:Ā 114.8
Draft Range: Top 15

Click here for DT Live profile.

Why should I pick him?

I think the better question is ā€œwhy not?ā€, because there is a lot to love about Josh Kellyā€™s Fantasy game. After breaking out in 2016, averaging 23 more Fantasy points than his previous season and getting $10 million contract offers from clubs around the league, I think itā€™s safe to say that Kelly is going to be a superstar for years to come.

To start with, his scoring is immense, almost pig-like. In his 21 games last season, Kelly went under the ton only SIX times! Even better than that, of those six scores under 100, 4 were 90+ and the other two were in the 80ā€™s. Couple that with a huge ceiling of 162 in Round 8, backed up three weeks later by a 159 and I think itā€™s fairly safe to say Josh Kelly has an insane Fantasy game. To break it down for you, thatā€™s; 15 x 100+ scores, 11 x 110+ scores, 6 x 120+ scores, 5 x 130+ scores and 2 x 150+ scores. Every second week last year, Kelly was scoring above 110 for his owners, that sounds like a lock to me.

Another thing I like about Kelly is how he scores his Fantasy points. Heā€™s most certainly not a one-trick pony, filling the stat sheet more than LeBron in an NBA Finals series (basketball comparison for Roy, I know he loves those.) In 2017, Kelly averaged 14 Kicks, 15.2 Handballs, 3.4 Marks, 6.3 Tackles and almost a goal a game. Thatā€™s about as close to a 1:1 Kick-to-Handball ratio as it gets from such a prolific midfielder, and not only does he rack up touches, but his huge frame can get up for a few grabs and lay a few cuddles whilst heā€™s in there. In fact, Kelly only had three games last season below 25 disposals, no wonder he only went under 100 six times! Not only that, but from 21 games last year, Kelly averaged a huge 85% time on ground. That means that for roughly the two hours heā€™s out there every week, heā€™s only not scoring you points for 18 minutes, what a crazy workload.

Image result for josh kelly s.afl.com.au 2017

Why shouldnā€™t I pick him?

Honestly, there is but one thing thatā€™s nagging at me, telling me not to pick up Josh Kelly, and thatā€™s his price tag. I personally donā€™t think Kelly has a whole lot of room to improve. Maybe on his actual AFL game there are areas in which he could be better, but Fantasy-wise heā€™s basically as good as I see him getting. Possibly a few more disposals to add each game, but itā€™s hard to improve on those numbers. Therefore, I find it hard to justify starting with Kelly as his price shouldnā€™t fluctuate very much. In my opinion, heā€™s not like a Tom Mitchell who you canā€™t afford to not start with as youā€™ll miss out on too many points, and heā€™s not like a Bryce Gibbs who I wrote about last week, who I think has 5-10 points improvement on his 2017 average. Kelly is very much in the middle of both, a player who should average about the same and his price should stay at about $800k because of that.

The other problem I have with Kelly, although Iā€™m much less worried about this, is him copping a tag. Due to having such a standout season last year, you would wonder how teams could let this bloke run amok again this season. Personally, I think there are two reasons teams donā€™t tag Kelly: 1) Heā€™s too difficult to stop, with such a big frame, quick speed and a nose for the Sherrin, itā€™s difficult to even curb his effect on the game. Kind of like why teams tag Selwood instead of Danger. And 2) GWS have such a strong midfield, itā€™s easy to forget they also have players like Shiel, Coniglio, Ward, Whitfield etc. For those two reasons alone, I think Kelly will once again avoid the tag this year.

Deck of DT Rating.

KING ā€“ Itā€™s hard to not rate Kelly an ace, but I think the fact that his price-tag isnā€™t very justifiable, hence giving people little reason to start with him, brings him down a peg into the ā€˜Kingā€™ category. Heā€™s a prolific scorer, a consistent and fantastic Fantasy player to have in your team, (trust me, I had him all last season). But the $795,000 next to his name is just not worth it for a 115-ish average and youā€™re better off spending money elsewhere to begin the year. At the end of the season, I guarantee you heā€™s a must-have and a wonderful upgrade target, but for now Iā€™d be staying away.

Which Midfielder improves on their 2017 average the most in the 2018 season?

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