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Deck of Dream Team

Joshua Kelly – Deck of DT 2018

He knocked back North and could improve even more in 2018.

Image result for josh kelly 2017Name: Joshua Kelly
Team: Greater Western Sydney
Position: MID
AFL Fantasy: $795,000
Bye Round: 13
2017 Average: 112.9
2017 Games Played: 21
Predicted Average: 114.8
Draft Range: Top 15

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Why should I pick him?

I think the better question is “why not?”, because there is a lot to love about Josh Kelly’s Fantasy game. After breaking out in 2016, averaging 23 more Fantasy points than his previous season and getting $10 million contract offers from clubs around the league, I think it’s safe to say that Kelly is going to be a superstar for years to come.

To start with, his scoring is immense, almost pig-like. In his 21 games last season, Kelly went under the ton only SIX times! Even better than that, of those six scores under 100, 4 were 90+ and the other two were in the 80’s. Couple that with a huge ceiling of 162 in Round 8, backed up three weeks later by a 159 and I think it’s fairly safe to say Josh Kelly has an insane Fantasy game. To break it down for you, that’s; 15 x 100+ scores, 11 x 110+ scores, 6 x 120+ scores, 5 x 130+ scores and 2 x 150+ scores. Every second week last year, Kelly was scoring above 110 for his owners, that sounds like a lock to me.

Another thing I like about Kelly is how he scores his Fantasy points. He’s most certainly not a one-trick pony, filling the stat sheet more than LeBron in an NBA Finals series (basketball comparison for Roy, I know he loves those.) In 2017, Kelly averaged 14 Kicks, 15.2 Handballs, 3.4 Marks, 6.3 Tackles and almost a goal a game. That’s about as close to a 1:1 Kick-to-Handball ratio as it gets from such a prolific midfielder, and not only does he rack up touches, but his huge frame can get up for a few grabs and lay a few cuddles whilst he’s in there. In fact, Kelly only had three games last season below 25 disposals, no wonder he only went under 100 six times! Not only that, but from 21 games last year, Kelly averaged a huge 85% time on ground. That means that for roughly the two hours he’s out there every week, he’s only not scoring you points for 18 minutes, what a crazy workload.

Image result for josh kelly 2017

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Honestly, there is but one thing that’s nagging at me, telling me not to pick up Josh Kelly, and that’s his price tag. I personally don’t think Kelly has a whole lot of room to improve. Maybe on his actual AFL game there are areas in which he could be better, but Fantasy-wise he’s basically as good as I see him getting. Possibly a few more disposals to add each game, but it’s hard to improve on those numbers. Therefore, I find it hard to justify starting with Kelly as his price shouldn’t fluctuate very much. In my opinion, he’s not like a Tom Mitchell who you can’t afford to not start with as you’ll miss out on too many points, and he’s not like a Bryce Gibbs who I wrote about last week, who I think has 5-10 points improvement on his 2017 average. Kelly is very much in the middle of both, a player who should average about the same and his price should stay at about $800k because of that.

The other problem I have with Kelly, although I’m much less worried about this, is him copping a tag. Due to having such a standout season last year, you would wonder how teams could let this bloke run amok again this season. Personally, I think there are two reasons teams don’t tag Kelly: 1) He’s too difficult to stop, with such a big frame, quick speed and a nose for the Sherrin, it’s difficult to even curb his effect on the game. Kind of like why teams tag Selwood instead of Danger. And 2) GWS have such a strong midfield, it’s easy to forget they also have players like Shiel, Coniglio, Ward, Whitfield etc. For those two reasons alone, I think Kelly will once again avoid the tag this year.

Deck of DT Rating.

KING – It’s hard to not rate Kelly an ace, but I think the fact that his price-tag isn’t very justifiable, hence giving people little reason to start with him, brings him down a peg into the ‘King’ category. He’s a prolific scorer, a consistent and fantastic Fantasy player to have in your team, (trust me, I had him all last season). But the $795,000 next to his name is just not worth it for a 115-ish average and you’re better off spending money elsewhere to begin the year. At the end of the season, I guarantee you he’s a must-have and a wonderful upgrade target, but for now I’d be staying away.

Which Midfielder improves on their 2017 average the most in the 2018 season?

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  1. Avatar


    January 13, 2018 at 8:32 am

    Given his age I see no reason why he won’t improve. He went at 117.8 from his last 18 games (including finals) which if he replicated that for the whole season would have him 5 points under priced. I think he’ll go 115-120 and is definitely worth the price

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      January 13, 2018 at 8:52 am

      You got to remember that Coniglio was out for most of that time

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        January 13, 2018 at 9:06 am

        Averaged 120 from his last 7 with Coniglio in the side

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    January 13, 2018 at 9:19 am

    Pay the big bucks to get the best, simple. He will be 115+ and top 8. Can’t go value picks all the time.

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    January 13, 2018 at 11:03 am

    Using your argument as to why you would not pick him, it’s fair to assume you will not be starting with any of Zerrett, Danger, Adams, Zorko or Martin as none of them are likely to actually increase on their 2017 score.
    Not every one of your starting lineup need to be “value” selections.
    Kelly will be in my starting team due to his remarkable consistency.

  4. Euman


    January 13, 2018 at 12:04 pm

    Locked from day one. They talk about price yes I see that but do you want to be without his 115-120 points each week while I’m going nice work you get what you pay for and you still need points

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    January 13, 2018 at 1:18 pm

    Thanks Sparksy for the article.
    I don’t think his over priced, although I haven’t selected him. Have Titch, Danger, Merrett and chose Dusty instead of Kelly.

    Point to note is may get more attention this year, I was at the preliminary final last season watching him run amok until Prestia went to him in the 2nd half and quieten his influence.

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      January 13, 2018 at 1:29 pm

      So what would happen if dusty got more attention this year as well, either either . Everyone premium is capable of getting tagged. Just wish you would stop whinging about it. It’s common sense

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        January 13, 2018 at 3:09 pm

        Common sense turn it up comin from a fuken troll!!!!!!!

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    January 13, 2018 at 1:33 pm

    +1 hawk.. must be a Richmond thing lol

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      January 13, 2018 at 3:08 pm

      Must b a troll thing ,more like it

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    January 13, 2018 at 2:08 pm

    Beams or Kelly?

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      January 13, 2018 at 6:14 pm


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      January 13, 2018 at 6:15 pm

      But I’d have Kelly is priority #1

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    January 13, 2018 at 2:43 pm

    Watch teams start to target kelly instead of shiel this season. I wont be starting him!

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      January 13, 2018 at 3:19 pm

      I don’t think Shiel was the go to man last year gum budge. You must have been watching netball or something

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        January 14, 2018 at 3:08 pm

        You know nothing

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    The real hawk

    January 13, 2018 at 3:35 pm

    Wipe ur chin

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      January 13, 2018 at 4:21 pm

      I doubt Dad would be impressed when he finds his 12 year Daughter trying to but unsuccessfully troll his favourite go to website, now would he? Now log out of your 2-3 accounts, shut your dads laptop off and fuck right off

  10. Warnie


    January 13, 2018 at 3:41 pm

    Can you guys stop being so annoying? You’re ruining the experience on here for others.

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      January 13, 2018 at 6:04 pm

      If you guys are looking for players to write about, I would love to see a deck of dream team article of jack redden and Andrew McGrath

      • Warnie


        January 13, 2018 at 6:24 pm

        There’s a fair chance they’ll be coming up at some stage in the Deck!

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          January 13, 2018 at 6:52 pm


  11. Euman


    January 13, 2018 at 6:02 pm

    They are entertaining but

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