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AFL Trade Period 2015 and Fantasy

The trade period has started and we will be looking at the fantasy relevance of each move made.

trade_logoThe AFL Trade Period is over for the year. Warnie has taken a look at every player trade completed from the free agents through to team-to-team trades over the last couple of weeks!

Projected prices are based on an approximate magic number of 5660 (close to last year’s starting one) which also assumes that the $10M salary cap will stick as it has the last two seasons. Discounts have been applied following last year’s formula where appropriate.


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LATEST UPDATE: Thursday October 22, 2:00pm.

MICHAEL TALIA TO SYDNEY SWANS

TALIA MichaelTRADE #36 – Thursday October 22, 1:51pm

2015 AVERAGE: 64 (14 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $362,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Talia was actually one of the quiet rookie winners down back this year, increasing $182K over his 14 games. As a 193cm key defender, he’s not someone you can pick with any confidence. At the Dogs, he posted some solid scores that would have made you happy as an owner. PASS.

CHRIS YARRAN TO RICHMOND

YARRAN-ChrisTRADE #34 – Thursday October 22, 1:34pm

2015 AVERAGE: 67.6 (14 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $383,000

FANTASY VERDICT: This move was mooted before the season even finished and it was made official today. Yarran will add another piece to the Tigers’ puzzle that is all about making the finals… and actually winning a game when they are there. Consistency is an issue with Yarran’s game and no matter where he is playing, even which position, it’s going to be hard to back him in with some conviction. I’ve been burned in draft before and loved that he was able to pump out 90’s and tons, but they would be backed up with 50’s and 60’s. Annoying. CAN IMPROVE AVERAGE, BUT NOT ENOUGH.

RYAN BASTINAC TO BRISBANE LIONS

BASTINAC RyanTRADE #31 – Thursday October 22, 12:42pm

2015 AVERAGE: 65.2 (17 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $369,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Bastinac had his best fantasy season back in 2013 where he averaged 85.4 from 22 games. That season he did some tagging, but smashed our a 132 and 136 (along with some other decent scores) when he was running through the midfield or going more head-to-head. This year he wore the vest a couple of times and didn’t manage to post a ton. In fact, he had just three scores above what he averaged in 2013. Anyway, a new club… and new hope. While he isn’t going to be a massive fantasy scorer, the midfielder had 15-20 points per game upside in him. WATCH HIS PRE-SEASON AND ROLE IN TEAM.

JAMES AISH TO COLLINGWOOD

trade_aishTRADE #29 – Thursday October 22, 12:40pm

2015 AVERAGE: 53 (11 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $300,000

FANTASY VERDICT: The skirt went over his head and Aish demanded to be traded to Collingwood. He got his way and if he’s a happier lad, his fantasy numbers may increase. Aish impressively averaged 74.2 from 21 games in his debut season but had a Barry Crocker this year copping a couple of vests and performing over 20 points per game worse off. At a projected price of $300K, there is definite upside but will he get the midfield time and opportunity he would like at the Magpies? Time will tell but at that price, it’s a bit risky when there will be players who will be priced a little bit better for potentially similar output and job security. LOWER END OF WATCH-LIST.

TOMAS BUGG TO MELBOURNE

BUGG TomasTRADE #27 – Wednesday October 21, 4:51pm

2015 AVERAGE: 58.9 (16 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $333,000

FANTASY VERDICT: In his four years at the Giants, Bugg has played 65 games and been a solid contributor as a role player. That is, playing in the backline and tagging. This has meant his fantasy numbers have been up and down. I wouldn’t say he has a huge ceiling, but there could be a 10-15 point per game increase in him, but way too many question marks on Bugg at his new home. PASS.

JACK FITZPATRICK TO HAWTHORN

FITZPATRICK JackTRADE #26 – Wednesday October 21, 4:41pm

2015 AVERAGE: 43 (3 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $192,000

FANTASY VERDICT: The 24-year-old has played just 22 games in his five seasons at Melbourne and could possibly be more than just depth at the Hawks. Fitzpatrick is named as a forward in fantasy, but at 201cm, he has proven to be a flexible player. He has the ability to play in the ruck however following his form in the VFL, taking a tall forward has been where he has shown some form. The majority of the season he played in defence with a few stints up forward. COULD BE CHEAP ENOUGH TO CONSIDER IF IN HAWKS’ PLANS.

ADAM TRELOAR TO COLLINGWOOD

trade_treloarTRADE #25 – Wednesday October 21, 4:29pm

2015 AVERAGE: 104.1 (21 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $589,000

FANTASY VERDICT: The Treloar trade has been the talk of the last few days and it has finally gone down. Ads is a fantasy gun. In his first two seasons he averaged over 80 and then went on to go 103.4 and 104.1 in the next two. A move to Collingwood will be interesting to see his progress as a the Pies midfield is star studded. Does Pendles move to the half-backline like we saw late in the season? And does Swanny stay forward? Pre-season will be telling and keeping our ear to the ground and watching role through the NAB Challenge will be important. Treloar has just undergone some secret off-season groin surgery in Hobart, so at this stage he might be an upgrade target. But we do know his potential (6 scores 111+ in 2015)… it would suck to miss out on a fast start due to his high fantasy ceiling! WATCH-LIST.

LIAM SUMNER TO CARLTON

SUMNER LiamTRADE #24 – Wednesday October 21, 1:15pm

2015 AVERAGE: DNP
PROJECTED PRICE: $142,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Sumner didn’t get a game in his fourth year on the GWS list, so he is looking at being rookie priced again due to his low average in 2014 (24.5 from 2 games). Named as a forward, if given the opportunity we have to look at the 22-year-old as a cheap bench option or downgrade target during the season when/if he gets games. A wrist and foot injury held him back this year (as well as a club suspension), so it will be an interesting pre-season to see where he fits. MONITOR PRE-SEASON.

ANDREW PHILLIPS TO CARLTON

PHILLIPS AndrewTRADE #24 – Wednesday October 21, 1:15pm

2015 AVERAGE: 49.5 (4 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $230,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Phillips made $48K in his four games this year as a few coaches slotted him on the ruck bench as there were slim pickings and he got a couple of NAB games. With a ruckman merry-go-round at the Giants when Mumford went down, Phillips wasn’t seen much despite decent NEAFL numbers. Obviously behind Kreuzer at the Blues and probably won’t be looking at too many games. PASS.

JED LAMB TO CARLTON

LAMB JedTRADE #24 – Wednesday October 21, 1:15pm

2015 AVERAGE: 45 (2 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $194,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Although it is the NEAFL, Lamb averaged in the high 90s, so there is some hope that he will have a decent enough fantasy game to consider picking him. He hasn’t has much of a run at it with 10 vests in his 22 games over three years (which included the Swans before his time at GWS). With a likely starting price at under $200K, the forward will have to be considered IF he can break a spot in the Carlton line-up. MONITOR PRE-SEASON.

LACHLAN PLOWMAN TO CARLTON

PLOWMAN LachieTRADE #24 – Wednesday October 21, 1:15pm

2015 AVERAGE: 57 (2 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $245,000

FANTASY VERDICT: The 191cm defender shouldn’t be on your fantasy radar, even though he gets a discount. In 20 games over three seasons at the Giants, Plowman managed a 90 against Collingwood, but his next best was a 61. I don’t think we’ll be seeing him towards the top of the fantasy tables. PASS.

TROY MENZEL TO ADELAIDE

MENZEL TroyTRADE #23 – Wednesday October 21, 1:00pm

2015 AVERAGE: 47 (14 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $266,000

FANTASY VERDICT: A great pick up for the Crows, but not really a fantasy option for us. He copped 3 vests this year and posted a 98 and 81… but his third best score was 56 – yes really. We won’t be picking him in any format what-so-ever. PASS.

SAM KERRIDGE TO CARLTON

KERRIDGE SamTRADE #23 – Wednesday October 21, 1:00pm

2015 AVERAGE: 19 (1 game)
PROJECTED PRICE: $142,000

FANTASY VERDICT: As Kerridge played just one game (19 points and subbed out following an ankle injury), he should be basement priced. With that said, we should be looking to place the FWD/MID on our bench. In Kerridge’s last month in the SANFL, his disposal counts read 24, 31, 28 and 31. Some pretty handy fantasy numbers there. BENCH LOCK IF BLUES GIVE HIM A RUN AND HE’S THAT CHEAP.

MATT ROSA TO GOLD COAST

ROSA MattTRADE #22 – Wednesday October 21, 12:46pm

2015 AVERAGE: 74.3 (14 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $421,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Gaining DEF status helped make Rosa fantasy relevant. Over his career (named up as a pure MID), he has been a solid fantasy contributor with his best seasons being 2014 (91.5 average), 2012 (92.1 average) and the three other seasons where has has averaged in the 80s. There is upside in Rosa as the 28-year-old should be able to average well enough to (a) increase his average and (b) end up in the top 20 fantasy defenders in 2016. Depending on role, he offers value next year. CONSIDER IF STILL A DEFENDER.

CRAIG BIRD TO ESSENDON

BIRD CraigTRADE #20 – Wednesday October 21, 10:00am

2015 AVERAGE: 65.8 (6 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $328,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Bird, Bird, Bird is the word. Craig Bird heads to Essendon as part of the Carlisle deal with an opportunity to improve his fantasy numbers. As a previous owner, especially because of his forward status, Bird has delivered some hope for fantasy coaches with impressive scores. His best average was back in 2014 with 83.3 from his 18 games – not too bad for a forward. Bird is a role player and has spent a lot of time tagging. It will be interesting to see what Essendon has planned for him but if given a chance to play his natural game, he should do fairly well! At the very least, he is under-priced… at his best, he could be one of the best picks of 2016. Definitely keep him in mind for Elite if he slides a bit. WILL BE A BIG IMPROVER ON AVERAGE IN 2016.

 

JAKE CARLISLE TO ST KILDA

trade_carlisleTRADE #20 – Wednesday October 21, 10:00am

2015 AVERAGE: 66.7 (17 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $378,000

FANTASY VERDICT: It finally went down… we won’t get bogged down in the nitty gritty and dramas of the trade, but with fantasy in mind, there isn’t a heap to talk about. 2014 was the swingman’s best season, averaging 72.1. We can argue that he is slightly underpriced – especially if he will be happier – but that bottom lip will find a way to drop at some stage during the season I’m sure (yes… I’m just another jaded Bombers supporter – haha). No tons in 2015 but most coaches will remember when he went 163 and 165 in rounds 17 and 18 of 2014 as he kicked 12 goals over the two weeks. Plenty got excited, but let’s remind ourselves about what he posted following those beast scores. 53, 49 and 51. Yes, you read those right. NOPE.

CHARLIE DIXON TO PORT ADELAIDE

DIXON CharlieTRADE #19 – Tuesday October 20, 4:50pm

2015 AVERAGE: 59.4 (16 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $336,000

FANTASY VERDICT: The Power got their man via a trade that included the Tigers and a few picks going backwards and forwards. Dixon has shown some fantasy potential. He scored 118 and 113 this year but it took 6 and 7 goals to do it. With injuries keeping him down, his average was 12 points less than his best of 71.2 he posted in 2013 when he spend a fair bit of time pinch hitting in the ruck. Missing a heap of games each year, Dixon isn’t a serious option in any form of the game for me. UPSIDE, BUT REALISTICALLY A PASS.

NATHAN FREEMAN TO ST KILDA

trade_freemanTRADE #18 – Tuesday October 20, 12:00pm

2015 AVERAGE: DNP
PROJECTED PRICE: $142,000

FANTASY VERDICT: The 20-year-old midfielder was taken a couple of years ago by the Pies but hasn’t managed a game yet due to injury. The hamstring has been an issue for Freeman and played just four games this year in the VFL. The Saints want him (after being another one of the young upstarts who nominated where he wanted to play thinking he was a free-agent) and you’d think that if he’s fit, he’ll find a place in the side early on. Due to lack of game time in the last couple of seasons, he is a bit of an unknown but Freeman should be basement priced and a serious cash cow option so long as his body holds up. BENCH LOCK IF FIT AND IN 22.

BEN KENNEDY TO MELBOURNE

trade_kennedyTRADE #17 – Monday October 19, 5:46pm

2015 AVERAGE: 43.2 (5 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $208,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Kennedy hasn’t shown us a lot in fantasy every his three seasons in the system. He hasn’t averaged over 50… BUT there is a reason. In 25 games, he’s worn a green or red vest in 13 of them. That’s right, thhiiirrrttteeeennnn! Thanks, Huddo. 87, 83 and 82 have been his best scores and while not setting the world on fire, no sub-rule and possibly extra opportunity at the Demons will mean it’s up, up and up for the FWD/MID. Kennedy had some big games in the VFL this year with multiple 30+ possession games. Priced at 43 with a potential 15% discount, he will be value for your F6. SHORTLISTED FOR AN ON-FIELD SPOT IN YOUR FORWARD LINE.

JEREMY HOWE TO COLLINGWOOD

trade_howeTRADE #17 – Monday October 19, 5:46pm

2015 AVERAGE: 65.3 (22 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $370,000

FANTASY VERDICT: The Pies have picked up a potential mark of the year winner for the next few seasons but probably not a fantasy star for us. Missing one game in the last four seasons, Howe is very durable but has only managed to average between the 65-76 mark in that time. Whilst the past has shown a 10 point improvement is impossible, the FWD/DEF isn’t consistent enough to warrant selection. Maybe in a deeper draft his dual position status could help. Or maybe not. Are we wasting our time here? Maybe. UNLIKELY TO IMPROVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT SELECTION.

JIMMY TOUMPAS TO PORT ADELAIDE

trade_toumpasTRADE #17 – Monday October 19, 5:46pm

2015 AVERAGE: 59.4 (9 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $326,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Toumpas’ scores over his career have been very sporadic. Vests have had an impact but so have some very random games where he has handballed way too much or scored 26 points in a full game of footy (this year against the Hawks… ouch). Toumpas has also had some crackers. 26 touches, 5 marks and 8 tackles against the Saints for 125 and 20 touches, 5 marks and 6 tackles for 103 v the Bulldogs were nice returns. The number 4 draft pick in 2012 will be keen for a big pre-season and to make his mark at the Power, however his price is very awkward to start with him unless you think he will pump out an 80+ average. WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON, BUT LOW ON PRE-SEASON WATCHLIST DUE TO PRICE.

PAUL SEEDSMAN TO ADELAIDE

trade_seedsmanTRADE #16 – Monday October 19, 5:44pm

2015 AVERAGE: 64 (12 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $363,000

FANTASY VERDICT: In five out of his 12 games, Seedsman wore a vest. This is the first thing that highlight’s his value in 2016. Although he won’t be getting a discount because he played 12 games, being priced at 64 is under what he is capable of scoring (his best was 79.2 from 16 games in 2013). The Seed will improve his average next year as a running half-back flanker for the Crows. Will he push that to 80+, I think he can… but will need to watch pre-season. I will be looking at what it means for blokes like Brodie Smith and whether a wing role will help improve his numbers that we hoped for this season. GOOD GREAT CHANCE TO IMPROVE AVERAGE.

JONATHAN GILES TO WEST COAST

GILES JonathanTRADE #15 – Monday October 19, 5:39pm

2015 AVERAGE: 73 (3 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $326,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Giles heads to his fourth club and is set to be the backup ruckman to Nic Naitanui and Scott Lycett. Realistically, he will be spending a fair bit of time in the WAFL and will come in if one of those blokes is injured. Giles will recieve a discount as he just played 3 games, but there is no way we will be looking at him in 2016 for the salary cap game and he’s unlikely to be a member of your draft side even if it is very deep. NOPE.

STEVE JOHNSON TO GWS GIANTS

JOHNSON SteveTRADE #14 – Monday October 19, 2:17pm

2015 AVERAGE: 86.6 (20 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $490,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Stevie J’s AFL career isn’t over… and his fantasy relevance possibly isn’t either. Obviously he is an all-time great and a future fantasy hall-of-famer after a decade of dominance averaging over 92 from 2007-2014. SJ’s best season was in 2013 when he averaged 118.3 points. Gaining forward status this year (and likely to hold it for 2016), SJ will be priced relatively cheaply due to averaging 86.6… a 22 point per game drop on the previous season. At GWS he’ll most likely play the majority of early games, however he might be in line for a rest or two as the season progresses. I don’t mind SJ as a starting option, but heaps depends on what FWDs we have available when fantasy opens… and exactly what role and subsequently the numbers he will have at the Giants. MONITOR PRE-SEASON.

JOSH WALKER TO BRISBANE LIONS

trader_walkerTRADE #13 – Monday October 19, 1:53pm

2015 AVERAGE: 52.8 (16 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $299,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Key forward looking for more opportunities. Walker will be going into his fifth season and while he is possibly under-priced due to wearing a sub vest four times, it’s hard to select him in any fantasy format. He had two scores of 88 this year… one of them took five goals. With the ability to pinch hit in the ruck, he may have some value and even though the Lions are looking for a player like him, I’m not sold on his fantasy output. PASS.

JARRED JANSEN TO BRISBANE LIONS

trade_jansenTRADE #13 – Monday October 19, 1:53pm

2015 AVERAGE: DNP
PROJECTED PRICE: $142,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Going at pick 36 a couple of seasons ago, Jansen is yet to play an AFL game and is heading north for further opportunity. Looking across his VFL numbers, he hasn’t set the Fantasy world on fire with only two out of his 16 games where he had over 20 disposals. We’ll monitor over the pre-season and if the midfielder gets a gig, then we have to consider as a bench option but we won’t be expecting scores big enough to start on our field. POTENTIAL BENCH OPTION.

DANIEL CURRIE TO GOLD COAST

CURRIE DanielTRADE #12 – Monday October 19, 1:21pm

2015 AVERAGE: DNP
PROJECTED PRICE: $211,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Ah man… he’s been R4 for us a few times before, could it happen again? Will sit behind Nicholls in the ruck pecking order at the Suns and who knows where Gorringe is comared to Currie. Obviously it has been tough for Currie to crack the North 22 with Goldstein so epic and the Roos pushing Daw through, so we haven’t seen his true ability. He’ll be priced at his 2014 average of 53.2 from his 4 games and is likely to get a 30% discount for not playing a game in 2015. This would see him at just over $211K. That’s too much for a bench spot for me, however if some bench rules change for next year, it might be worth spending that cash on him? DON’T CROSS HIM OFF YET.

ZAC SMITH TO GEELONG

SMITH ZacTRADE #11 – Monday October 19, 1:20pm

2015 AVERAGE: 70.3 (11 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $398,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Will Zac Smith be the man at the Cats? If so, we should see an improvement on his 70 average making him coming in at unders in 2016. Although there has been talk about him being a depth player, surely Smith is half a chance to shoulder the ruckload at times and will definitely be in a battle for the number one ruck role with other big men like Blicavs, Stanley, Clark and Vardy not that far ahead of him as rucks (they are a bit more versatile than Smith). Anyway, pre-season will be interesting. WARY BUT PUT ON WATCH-LIST.

TOM BELL TO BRISBANE LIONS

trade_bellTRADE #10 – Monday October 19, 10:00am

2015 AVERAGE: 88.8 (22 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $503,000

FANTASY VERDICT: I rate Bell highly… and that’s probably because he was left on our waiver wire in our draft league and just quietly, he had a massive fantasy breakout year in 2015. In his fourth season, he took his average to 88.8 after averaging 65, 56 and 67 in his first three seasons. Personally, I think he’s an upgrade target as there are the questions about him at a new club, but if you look across his season that included eight tons, there is a lot to like about him as a fantasy player going forward. Listening to Lions list manager Peter Schwab, it sounds like he will play as a forward and go into the midfield when needed. This is ideal for Bell’s game from what we saw in 2015 – however there is some unknown about he fits in with other hard nut midfielders like Rockliff, Robinson, et al. UPGRADE TARGET, BUT DON’T MISS DRAFTING HIM IN ELITE.

JACOB TOWNSEND TO RICHMOND

TOWNSEND JacobTRADE #9 – Friday October 16, 1:00pm

2015 AVERAGE: 82 (1 game)
PROJECTED PRICE: $339,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Townsend is realistically a depth player but the inside midfielder could have a developing fantasy game about him. He played in the final round of 2015 where he racked up 22 touches against the Demons and has 82 points. A hefty discount will see him come in at around $339K but that will probably be too expensive for someone who is at best going to be a fringe player. Even though he’s copped a lot of vests, there are not enough runs on the board as yet when you look across his career games. PASS.

CURTLY HAMPTON TO ADELAIDE

HAMPTON CurtlyTRADE #8 – Friday October 16, 12:00pm

2015 AVERAGE: 48.2 (5 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $232,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Hampton has been at the Giants since 2012 and racked up 51 games. 2014 was his best season averaging 68 points and in doing so, had a hot month where he scored 93, 99 and 96 in three of four games. Two vests and a discount due to only 5 games this year will make him relatively cheap… but don’t expect anything more than a 70 average IF he gets a gig in the Crows’ backline as a rebounding defender. (More on which Crows will benefit as the pre-season unfolds… Brodie Smith maybe?) D5 OR D6 IF YOU’RE GOING CHEAP, BUT NAH.

hamptonbig

DAWSON SIMPSON TO GWS GIANTS

SIMPSON DawsonUNRESTRICTED FREE AGENT – Friday October 16, 11:16am

2015 AVERAGE: 42.7 (4 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $198,000

FANTASY VERDICT: This is a bit of a nothing trade, but anyway, Dawson Simpson has headed to the Giants to play back-up to Shane Mumford. His career has been pretty limited down at the Cattery with just 28 games to his name. Simpson’s best fantasy season was in 2013 where he averaged 70.3 but he played only 6 games. In his six seasons since debuting in 2010, he has only played in double figure games once – and that was 13 in 2014 and he averaged just 49. With an 18% discount on his 2015 average, he should come in at under $200K but there are arguably better, younger GWS rucks who might even be ahead. PASS, BUT A BENCH RUCKMAN MAYBE.

JED ANDERSON TO NORTH MELBOURNE

ANDERSON JedTRADE #7 – Friday October 16, 11:02am

2015 AVERAGE: 49.3 (4 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $220,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Anderson has been in the system for three years now but has played just 9 games. His four games this year will give him a discount on his 49.3 average to take him just over the $220K figure and a good price at his new home at Arden Street. Anderson’s 97 in the first NAB Challenge game this year got us excited but injuries and lack of opporunity meant that he wasn’t a viable rookie option. Yep, we’re paying a bit more for him but hopefully the 21-year-old will be able to put his best foot forward and be a regular fixture for the Roos. NO SUB RULE AND SPOT IN 22, LOCK.

MATTHEW LEUENBERGER TO ESSENDON

trades_leuenbergerRESTRICTED FREE AGENT – Thursday October 15, 4:40pm

2015 AVERAGE: 54.4 (14 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $308,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Bingo! Not only for the Bombers, but for us in fantasy. In 2011, the ‘Berger enjoyed playing all 22 games and averaging 92.8. Since then he went 57 (3 games), 85 (20 games) and 58 (5 games) with a few injuries thrown in to finish 2015 with a 54.4 average from his 14 games. The rise of Stef Martin was a big factor in his poor scores this year. In fact, the 27-year-old reminded us all how good he was with his 124 against Freo with Stef out of the side. Anyway, Leuenberger will be the number one ruck ahead of Tom Bellchambers at the Bombers and he should relish this. The former number four draft pick will definitely improve on his 2015 average and will at least pump out an 80+ average. THE MID-PRICED RUCK WORTH GAMBLING ON.

JAKE MELKSHAM TO MELBOURNE

trade_melkshamTRADE #6 – Thursday October 15, 1:55pm

2015 AVERAGE: 64.8 (18 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $367,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Offering us plenty of laughs earlier in the season when Roy picked him up, a few are having the same chuckles with the Demons. But seriously, the 24-year-old is a good pick up for Melbourne in this trade period. Plenty of footy ahead and his best is pretty good, the FWD/MID started the season like a house on fire. 95 v Sydney and 104 v Hawthorn followed by 81 v Carlton, it looked like we were going to see a breakout season. In Melksham’s next three games he posted 66, 52 and 39… from full games. Ouch. His best season was 77.6 from 21 games back in 2013 and there is definitely some upside depending on role and opportunity at the Demons. Watch this space! ROY IS KEEN.

https://twitter.com/gnburgan/status/654492946645938176

CALLUM SINCLAIR TO SYDNEY SWANS

trade_sinclairTRADE #5 – Wednesday October 14, 5:38pm

2015 AVERAGE: 74.8 (17 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $423,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Quite a few coaches were keen t hear that Callum Sinclair made the move to the Swans. There has been talk that Mike Pyke (he’s Canadian, you know) may retire leaving a number one ruck spot open for the former Eagle. The Swans must love him after their 52 point loss to West Coast in round 17 where Sinclair had 129 points from his 21 touches, 9 marks and 29 hitouts (and yes, NicNat played that… he had 41 hitouts and 114 fantasy points). It’s all about next year and a fresh start. Very much a watch this space on Sinclair and consider using him as a stepping stone to one of the big dogs like Martin or Goldstein when they inevitably drop in value. 10+ POINTS OF UPSIDE AS NUMBER ONE RUCK.

LEWIS JETTA TO WEST COAST

trade_jettaTRADE #5 – Wednesday October 14, 1:38pm

2015 AVERAGE: 79.1 (22 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $448,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Not really someone to consider for the salary cap games due to consistency, but depending on the depth of your draft team, he has the potential to improve at his new home in the West. 2015 was his best season to date, but his consistency lacks despite being a relatively durable player. Jetta wanted to return to WA and at his new home, he may not get any more/less opportunity… so an 80 average could be about it, however there is possibly some upside in the 26-year-old’s game.  CONSIDER UPPING HIS SPOT IN YOUR PRE-DRAFT LIST.

HARLEY BENNELL TO FREMANTLE

trade_bennellTRADE #4 – Wednesday October 14, 2:38pm

2015 AVERAGE: 92 (14 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $521,000

FANTASY VERDICT: The Dockers did very well to get Bennell (and pick 22) for picks 16 and 35. Of course there has been plenty of off-field issues, but there is no doubting how good Bennell is – and still has the scope to be. He’s averaged 85 or more since his second AFL season in 2012. This year Bennell produced his best numbers which included two lots of 130’s and three other scores over the fantasy ton. His lowest score was 70. Definitely keep an eye out on his pre-season and where he will sit in the Freo 18. It might be tough if Champion Data deem him to be a MID only which is likely based on his season heat map. CONSIDER IF STILL NAMED AS A FORWARD.

LACHIE HENDERSON TO GEELONG

HENDERSON LachieTRADE #3 – Wednesday October 14, 10:18am

2015 AVERAGE: 60.9 (12 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $345,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Good pick up for Geelong and a new club should be the fresh start the 24-year-old is looking for. As he has been in the system for eight seasons and his highest average has been 68.7, it would be silly for me to even contemplate selecting the FWD… but maybe there is a little upside in him. Who am I kidding? He has only scored five tons from his 112 games and only another six in the 90s. PASS.

JACK REDDEN TO WEST COAST

trade_reddenTRADE #2 – Monday October 12, 6:00pm

2015 AVERAGE: 97 (17 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $549,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Rocky loses his best mate, Reddo to the Eagles. They will forever have their bond with their matching tattoos of their street name on their bums (true story, ask Roy). Redden will go into 2016 under-priced after averaging 97 – compared to 109.1 in his third year breakout (2011) plus his 102.6 (2012) and 105.6 (2014). The midfielder averaged 24 disposals, 5 marks and 6.5 tackles over the last two seasons making him a tasty fantasy option. There’s around 8 points of upside in him. I’ll be monitoring closely over the pre-season. HIGH ON WATCH-LIST.

SCOTT SELWOOD TO GEELONG

trades_selwoodRESTRICTED FREE AGENT – Monday October 12, 3:20pm

2015 AVERAGE: 58.8 (12 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $320,000

FANTASY VERDICT: A few coaches were keen on picking up Scooter this year when he was priced at his 2014 average of 81. An ankle injury has impacted his massive fantasy rise where we saw his average jump by over 10 points per season to 108.3 in 2013. Tbetta’s Deck of DT is a great read from earlier this year. Four vests, a few below average scores coupled with two tons meant for an indifferent year. As he will be priced at his lowest average since 2009, Selwood offers a lot of value at his new club (almost) regardless of role – so long as he’s best 22. LOCK IF SELECTED IN ROUND ONE.

* UPDATE – Selwood is set for some surgery on his ankles and won’t start full training until after Christmas. Buyer beware.

PATRICK DANGERFIELD TO GEELONG

trade_dangerTRADE #1 – Monday October 12, 12:00pm

2015 AVERAGE: 106.3 (21 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $586,000

FANTASY VERDICT: The biggest name of free agency was Dangerfield and he has now officially made his way to the Cats via trade. Let’s keep this simple, Danger won’t be in my starting team. He had his best AFL Fantasy season ever… which was only the second time in his eight year career that he has topped the ton. Gun player, will be in top few… but most likely be an upgrade target. The winner out of this will be Joel Selwood who will be freed up a fair bit you’d think and improve on his 97.8 – but more on that in the pre-season coverage on DT TALK. UPGRADE TARGET AT THIS STAGE.

DEAN GORE TO ADELAIDE

trade_goreTRADE #1 – Monday October 12, 12:00pm

2015 AVERAGE: DNP
PROJECTED PRICE: $142,000

FANTASY VERDICT: The 19-year-old was drafted to the Cats last year at pick 55. He had a great year in the VFL finishing 3rd in the best and fairest for the Cats only playing 11 games. Statistically, Gore was one of the Cats’ best all year finishing fifth in disposals (average of 21.4), fifth in tackles (5.6), fourth in clearances (3.6) and first in inside 50’s (3.5), showcasing his potential as a quality midfielder. Towards the end of the season Gore was “in the mix” to get a game for the senior side. It’ll be interesting to see where Gore fits in at the Crows. PRE-SEASON WATCHLIST.

MATT SUCKLING TO WESTERN BULLDOGS

trade_sucklingUNRESTRICTED FREE AGENT – Saturday October 10, 8:00pm

2015 AVERAGE: 80.2 (21 games)
PROJECTED PRICE: $454,000

FANTASY VERDICT: Suckers has been a bit of a fantasy tease over the years. He was a member of the Warne Dawgs for a part of 2015 before dumping him when he was dropped for a trip to Tassie (following a 56 point game)… only to be a late inclusion and racking up 97. Just my luck! Suckling’s best season to date was in 2011 when he averaged 90.7. With two vests this year, his price will be slightly lower than what it should be and certainly capable of producing. There’s value but it’s hard to tell how he will fit in at the Dogs. I’m confident there is spot there for him (his 3 year deal would suggest that too) but what it is, we don’t know. Matthew Boyd and Bob Murphy play a similar rebounding role at the Dogs, but as this year has seen, his flexibility saw him play up the wing and across half-forward. The booming left footer will most likely retain his DEF/FWD for 2016 however my biggest worry is that there isn’t the same easy ball at the Dogs as there was at the Hawks. POTENTIAL UPSIDE, PRE-SEASON WATCHLIST.

suckling

KEY TRADE PERIOD DATES

Friday October 9 – NAB AFL restricted free agency offer and unrestricted free agency period begins

Monday October 12, 10am – NAB AFL Trade Period begins

Sunday October 18, 5pm – Close of NAB AFL restricted free agency offer and unrestricted free agency period

Wednesday October 21 – NAB AFL restricted free agency matching offer three-day period ends

Thursday October 22, 2pm – NAB AFL Trade Period closes

* All times AEDT.

Discuss the trades and any Fantasy value you find in players at their new club in the comments.

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Co-captain of DT Talk since we started this thing in 2007. Best finish was 13th in 2009... that was a long time ago. Follow on Twitter: @WarnieDT




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