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The Fantasy Analyzer: Trading Traps

Ben enjoys reading Fantasy footy websites on Monday morning and is interested by the comments he sees when everyone starts looking at trading. Today he discusses different trading schemes some may pursue, but should avoid.

Traps

Avoid the traps!

I love reading fantasy football. Monday mornings I peruse through the articles on various websites, both for Fantasy and the other major formats of fantasy football. I read through to the comments section, where trading discussion has invariably already taken hold of the sites faithful. I’m often shocked by the moves many are considering. Today I’ll discuss the different trading schemes some may pursue, but should undoubtedly consider twice before making the final decision.          Chappy Chappy has gone and rubbed himself out for a week. The Chapstick has never been a happy camper, and in trademark ‘on the edge’ fashion, he has gone and gotten himself rubbed out for this high hit. He has the Round 10 bye, to further compound matters so he won’t be scoring any fantasy points for the next two weeks. Perfect time to trade it would appear…  These are my two potential trade options below;

Option 1: Chapman to Harvey & Hunter to Bock

Option 2: Hunter to Bock & Dunstan to Swan

 Option 1

Screen Shot 2014-05-15 at 12.32.58 pm

Chapman is a premium and after averaging 103.29 points per game this season, it’s quite clear that he’ll be a top 6 forward option come seasons end. Letting him go may get you two weeks of, for arguments sake, Harvey over Ambrose. The Roos champion is averaging 96 ppg and Ambrose is averaging 58. The expectation is that he’ll outperform the young Bomber by (38*2) 76 points over the next fortnight, before having a slightly lower average through the course of the season than Chapman. So we’ve gained 76 right? Absolutely we have, but what if it’s holding back our side from bringing in more guns quicker?

Harvey 96*2=192

Ambrose 58*2=116

192-116=76

Final Result: Option 1 gain of 76 points over 2 weeks, then will lose points thereafter if Chapman & Harvey maintain current averages

Option 2

Screen Shot 2014-05-15 at 12.29.23 pm

This requires more cash than the other trade, but given that you’re making a downgrade of roughly $155,000, it shouldn’t be too difficult to make the trade of a Dunstan type to Swan. The young Sainter is averaging 80.71 points per game and has been slowing considerably in recent weeks, averaging just 67.67 over the last 3 weeks. The aforementioned Dane, started slowly but has now picked up his seasonal average to 104.14 points per game, including 123 over the last 3 weeks. Using the seasonal averages for arguments sake, Dane will outscore Luke by roughly 48 points for the next two weeks. That’s 29 points less than what we would receive from Option 1.

Swan 104*2=208

Dunstan 80*2= 160

Final Result: Option 2 gains 48 points over the 2 week period, and remains consistent throughout the year

Final Consideration

Now if the season ran over a 2 week period, I’d gladly say go with Option 1, it’s a clear and utter no brainer really. I mean you’re gaining an extra 28 points after all. But the season doesn’t run for another 2 weeks now does it. Over time Swan will progressively outscore Dunstan by at least 24 points per game. Whilst on the other hand Harvey is likely to be outscored by Chapman till the end of the season judging by their current respective averages. This trading mechanism is adaptable for a variety of trade moves obviously, but this just provides an example which hopefully covers many individual’s considerations for this week, and the weeks ahead. This does not mean don’t trade Chapman, it just means that a lot of us have better things to do with our two moves this week. I’m keen on a Chapman to Walker trade, but that accounts for value, rather than just out and out points. Anyway let me know what you think in the poll below!

AFL Fantasy: Trade or Hold Zorko?

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So what do you guys think? Remember to give me a follow on twitter @B_Gogos and tune into AFL Fantasy Radio Live at 7PM this Friday! Ask questions using the #FantasyFM and we’ll answer them in the lead up to the game and then continue with a fantasy commentary during the game! Good luck with all your fantasy sides this weekend!

32 Comments

32 Comments

  1. Avatar

    Matt

    May 15, 2014 at 3:51 pm

    I see your point, but you will have the cash in the bank to go Dunstan to Swan next week. This won’t only improve point scoring overall but it will help your bye structure as well. In Fantasy sideways trades like Chapman to Harvey are worth it, unless this is a RDT focused article in which case spot on!

    • Avatar

      Ben Gogos

      May 15, 2014 at 4:54 pm

      I see your point mate, and it’s very valid indeed, but I guess it’s also largely to do with trading strategy. If for instance, you aren’t planning on doing an upgrade next week (due to lack of funds or the like), I’d agree whole heartedly with your thinking. But I think again, if an upgrade can be done, it’s most likely making your side stronger, and quicker than if you do sideways moves… Food for thought though :)

      • Avatar

        Lachlan

        May 15, 2014 at 5:58 pm

        For the first option Boomer would outscore Ambrose by more cos Ambrose has the final round bye.

  2. Avatar

    Francis

    May 15, 2014 at 4:23 pm

    (1) S Mitchell & J Merrett> Bartel & T Walker + 175k OR/

    (2) S Mitchell & J Merrett> B Smith & Dangerfield OR/

    (3) Smitchell & J Merrett> Jaensch & Dangerfield?

    • Avatar

      Hoff

      May 15, 2014 at 5:06 pm

      1.. good value there getting the Texan

  3. Avatar

    Jordan

    May 15, 2014 at 4:32 pm

    Great article!
    For my afl Fantasy; what i really want to do this week is bring in Goddard however this will only let me scrape in 18 players (not including honeychurch) for round 10 (assuming no injuries). this will also leave me with a midfield of 8 players 500k+
    in my opinion this is a better long term trade but should i make the byes a higher priority?

    • Avatar

      Ben Gogos

      May 15, 2014 at 4:56 pm

      It really depends mate. If you can wait a week on Goddard that’d be preferable, but if you see that as the clear best upgrade you can make this week, and feel you can deal with it down the track, then it probably works reasonably well doing it this week (Y)

      • Avatar

        Jordan

        May 15, 2014 at 5:03 pm

        Good point, going this way will leave me with a better team after the byes just a higher risk for r10, but i’m going to roll with it and hope for the best!

  4. Avatar

    Henry

    May 15, 2014 at 5:00 pm

    Great article Ben.
    I am planning a similar trade to your Option 2, with the exception that I’m trading out J Merrett rather than Hunter. But my big concern is, even if Bock is named in the squad tonight, we won’t know for sure until tomorrow that he is in the team. By then it will be too late to reverse trade (because of Swan). Would I be better going out: Dunstan & Merrett; in: Kelly & Tex Walker (with the aim of moving Kelly to defence in the next couple of rounds) which leaves me with the certainty of 6 playing forwards?

  5. Avatar

    Hoff

    May 15, 2014 at 5:46 pm

    If bock is playing.. who would you pick as just a money maker.. bock or t.walker?

    • Avatar

      Albert Lloyd

      May 15, 2014 at 5:53 pm

      Walker

  6. Avatar

    leetrevor81

    May 15, 2014 at 5:55 pm

    Not to mention there is talk of Chappy only playing 16-17 games, so expect to lose points in the weeks he is rested.

  7. Avatar

    marcus81168

    May 15, 2014 at 6:11 pm

    Hibberd, Simpson, Enright
    Suckling, Jeansch, Langdon
    Langford, Ellis
    Stevie J, Ablett, Pendlebury, Beams
    Cotchin, Treloar, Polec, Tyson,
    J Kelly, J Lloyd
    Cox, Sandilands
    Derrickx, Currie
    Roo, Dangerfield,Dalhouse
    Pav,Higgin,Billings
    S Lloyd, Ambrose

    Out J Kelly, Treloar
    In Hallahan, Swan

  8. Avatar

    boagii

    May 15, 2014 at 6:15 pm

    Can you reverse trades after tonight’s game?

  9. Avatar

    Cohen

    May 15, 2014 at 6:40 pm

    Thoughts Appreciated
    Polec >> Jelwood
    Bennell>Ellis
    Making Midfield Johnson. Swan. Ablett. Montagna. Beams. Watson Selwood. Ellis

  10. Avatar

    Peter

    May 15, 2014 at 6:45 pm

    Who saw crouch as crows sub coming.

  11. Avatar

    Peter

    May 15, 2014 at 6:46 pm

    Charlie Cameron must come as strong consideration

  12. Avatar

    Ben

    May 15, 2014 at 6:48 pm

    Is Jake Lloyd a better trade for Robertson than Claye Beams, or anyone else???? Please Help!

  13. Avatar

    straya

    May 15, 2014 at 6:53 pm

    Bock or Charlie Cameron to sit ok bench?

  14. Avatar

    Angus

    May 15, 2014 at 6:58 pm

    Lennon or Sam Lloyd for RDT?

  15. Avatar

    straya

    May 15, 2014 at 6:58 pm

    Is bock named?

    • Avatar

      Ben

      May 15, 2014 at 7:05 pm

      No hasn’t been named for GCS

  16. Avatar

    P Mackey

    May 15, 2014 at 7:02 pm

    Taylor Walker or Buddy Franklin?

  17. Avatar

    Cameron

    May 15, 2014 at 7:06 pm

    Merret – Cameron
    Polec – StevieJ

    or
    Merret – Walker
    Suckling – Jaensch

    or
    Merret – Lennon
    Suckling – Bartel
    Any thoughts?

  18. Avatar

    Matthew

    May 15, 2014 at 7:33 pm

    cameron or walker?

  19. Avatar

    Crisis

    May 15, 2014 at 7:36 pm

    screwed me this week having Crouch as the sub!

    really want to do Shaw to Bartel but then don’t know who to trade down Crouch to??

    any last minute suggestions?!?!

  20. Avatar

    Matthew

    May 15, 2014 at 7:46 pm

    no not really, cameron or waker AFL Fanstasy

  21. Avatar

    Albert Lloyd

    May 15, 2014 at 8:26 pm

    Geezus Langdon.

    The new Barlow. And he’s a backman!

  22. Avatar

    Albert Lloyd

    May 15, 2014 at 8:48 pm

    All Pendles does is handball.

    Urge to trade Pendles to Rocky rising….

    • Avatar

      facil

      May 16, 2014 at 6:21 pm

      Silly.

  23. Avatar

    Albert Lloyd

    May 15, 2014 at 9:01 pm

    50, 79, 69 and 52 at half time.

    Dat average!

  24. Avatar

    Peter

    May 15, 2014 at 10:34 pm

    497 from 5. Blame collingwoods horrendous delivery to Cloke for being not 520+. Clokes 57 was good considering the crap delivery to him (although he did drop a sitter early on)

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