Good Trade, Bad Trade: Round 21

Week 2 of the finals is upon us and you could be in either of 2 camps; you have your feet up, beer in hand, pondering a smokie captain because you have the week off, or, you have gone into survival mode in a do or die elimination and are also pondering smoky captain as you need a miracle to make up the expected 100 points!

 

Last week was an absolute $hit of a week.  In my astute wisdom, I decided to bring in Fyfe to cover a donut in the forward line, and that worked out just great! Round 20 brought us under performing premos, injuries to popular picks (Cyril and Riewoldt*) Fyfe, Roughead and Chappy  late outs and the go-to captain barely making a pass mark.  Surely this week must be better?  I know, we’ll trade our way out of trouble!

**Riewoldt isn’t crying cos he’s injured, he’s crying that his DT sucked on the weekend and he put himself captain

Defenders

Grant Birchall ($381,600, b/e 62) Decided to last week give us a reminder of why he has been one of the top defenders for the whole season. After a couple of quiet weeks in the 60’s, Birchall chalked up a more than handy 127 which was the 12th highest score for the week. While his consitency rating has increased to 22, his 5 round average is 87, 3 round 86, and overall average is 90. Just what we want from a ‘gun’ , a couple of quiet games, then bounces back for a big one. As Tbetta pointed out on Monday, Birchall and his other fellow hawks could be up for a rest ala GF week last year. Expect the worst, it’s likely to happen.

Brendan Lee ($85,800) is one we are wishing was left til next year to get a game. Another mature age player who made a solid start to his DT career with 74 last week. Essendon are likely to name some big ins this week so he could be likely one of the first out.

Midfielders

Dane Swan continues to exit teams who are in do or die games this week, with Jobe Watson ($510,800, b/e 97) and fellow Magpie Dayne Beams ($541,100, b/e  114)  the popular replacements. Future DT king Trent Cotchin ($504,800 b/e 85) also looms as a popular replacement for those who want a point of difference with a high ceiling. As Calvin pointed out in Calvin’s Captains, he should dodge the tag of creepy Crowley which was successfully employed on Deledio last time (the week I chose him as captain,of course). A real smokie to bring in this week could be Kieran Jack ($470,000 b/e 120) who has been released from tagging duties in recent weeks and has increased his DT scoring to boot. A 3 round average of a 107 and predicted to score well against a toothless bulldogs side could be a winner.

 

Rucks

Big bird Dean Cox($445,600, b/e 87) decided to make a mockery of me (not hard) when I took the piss last week and suggested him to be a spud captain choice. 147 points and 3 votes later he was the one laughing. Cox is being traded in for my favourite ruck Jon Giles ($364,000, b/e 53) and is the 4th most popular trade this week. One player of interest for the upcoming weeks could be the human crane Sandilands ($405,500. b/e 150) if he gets a guernsey this week.

Forwards

Will he or wont he play this week?  Lance Franklin continues to filter out of teams this week, along with his delicious friend Cyril Rioli($427,500) whose DT season looks over. If Franklin doesn’t play, and Roughead doesnt pull up in time, a cheeky $10 on Gold Coast may not be the worst thing ever…..other popular trades out of the forward line this week are Saint Nick and Porps

Stevie J($393,500, b/e 18) Was another one to mock me last week as I said ‘ he can wait another week as historically, he doesnt score well against the eagles’. With Stevie J playing as a pure midfielder and racking up 134 points, he put that theory to bed. This week he is again against one of his worse teams in the Saints, with a high of just 77 in his last 3. There are some pros and cons to consider here; Con – Johnson’s midfield time may dimisnish with the likes of Corey, Kelly and Chapman coming back in to the team, Pro – Johnson went head to head with Pendlebury in rd 16 when they were all in the same team  and racked up 137 points. Midfield role or not, you just need to get Stevie J in at that price, as he is the most logical replacement for any of the injured/missing players mentioned above. Unlikely to get rested as they need to win every game from here on in.

Well that’s the rub for this week, if you are in a do or die situation with trades, pull the trigger and hope for the best.
But remember though, if you have low expectations of your team, you get less disappointed!

There will also be no ‘smokie’ captain pick by me this week as Beau Waters stuffed that one up. That’s the last time I use statistics to make any decisions!

Hit me up on @jimbobholder on the twittersphere for questions and comments!