Tbetta’s Bullets: Round 20

  • Double Chance

This week was a perfect example of why it is so beneficial to finish in the Top 4 of your League. You can have the best team in the world, but it only takes one week of terrible luck to dismantle your side, and there’s every chance that could have been Round 20 for you.

Players like Franklin, Swan and Stanton are on the sidelines, Guns such as Fyfe and Chapman were late withdrawals and Premos like N. Riewoldt, Suckling, Daisy Thomas and Rioli were diminished by substitution. Combine a few of those bad luck stories with a below-par week from your others scorers and it could easily have been a devastating week for any quality side.

At least with a double-chance, you can live to fight another day.

 

  • Makers and Breakers

With Swan and/or Stanton on the sidelines for many midfields, who do you think was called upon to cover these Premiums? That’s right, good old Sam Gibson, who notched 114 points in Round 20. The mature-age ball magnet would normally find himself languishing at M7 in the run home, but has embraced the opportunity to take to the field with aplomb. In his last three, Gibson has topped the ton on each occasion, averaging 118.3 points in that time.

Just as Gibson has been patrolling the Mids, Treloar has been watching over the forward line. Players like Franklin, Fyfe, Chapman and Robinson have all been missing in recent weeks, but Treloar has weakened the blow significantly. He’s been scoring like a Premium himself lately, averaging 108.8 points in his last four starts; including a much-appreciated 112 on the weekend.

If you already cashed in Treloar, hopefully you kept Devon Smith for that Mid/Fwd DPP cover. Like the two players above him, Smith has been on an absolute tear over the last few weeks. He’s manufactured scores of 100, 107 and 103 in his last three attempts, and comes up against Melbourne this week – it could be a season-defining month for Devon Smith owners with the assistance that he’s provided.

Nat Fyfe and Stevie J were at a very similar price during the week, and most coaches may have been swayed by the novelty and alluring playing style of the former. It turns out Stevie J was the right call, with Fyfe turning his ankle while the majestic Cat busted out a 134-point score against the Eagles. He even dropped in price thanks to his ‘sausage’ a couple of weeks ago, so seriously consider Stevie J at $394k this week – he’s averaged 123 DT points in his last four un-subbed games.

He’s been one of the bigger DT disappointments of season 2012, but Bryce Gibbs seems to be coming good at exactly the right time. If you had unwavering faith that he would bounce back (or didn’t have the cash or brashness to trade him out after he plummeted so harshly in price), then you’d be harping on about his last fortnight, which have borne scores of 130 and 141. A move to the midfield has been a long time coming, but it’s certainly paid off now.

Honourable Mentions: T. Cotchin (152), J. Kennedy (153), D. Cox (147), Dangerfield (137), O’Keefe (132), A. Hall (101).

 

Matt Suckling’s 54 may not have been the worst score of the week, but the fact that he was green-vested meant that he never had the opportunity to carve out a Premium-esque total. That’s dual 54’s in a row now, and it hasn’t been pretty reading since Beau Waters went down and many coaches looked to Suckling for solace.

Scott Thompson was always going to struggle as the Crows primary midfielder given the dreaded Crowley tag, but 65 points is too painful to ignore. It’s obvious that Thommo doesn’t like the tight tag, usually given latitude by the opposition as he’s not considered as ‘damaging’ as Dangerfield and co. (much the same way that Boyd and Priddis are ignored by taggers). It hasn’t been a fruitful run for Thompson, topping the ton just once in his last six efforts. Is the General knocking?

After holding Mitch Robinson for weeks, we expected a little more than a lukewarm return and a dodgy Slim Shady ‘do. In his defence, he was given more attention by the Lions than many of his fitter and more experienced counterparts, ensuring he had zero influence on the game. Expect more than 48 from the Kamikaze Kid next week.

Waters (57) has been solid since his return from minor knee surgery, but this was a shocker by his standards. The difference was that Geelong refused to let him play loose, which may be a strategy that opponents choose to employ over the next few weeks. Watch this space.

He’s had a fantastic career to date, but Jamie Elliott went cold this week. Sydney’s defence is arguably the best in the competition, contributing to Elliott’s eerily quiet outing. His 38 point total hurt while other coverage options such as Treloar (114), D. Smith (103), Hall (101) and Dickson (79) went off in comparison.

Honourable mentions: N. Riewoldt (30), T. Cloke (53), M. Johnson (48), M. Pavlich (58), T. Rockliff (66), Nat Fyfe (LW), Paul Chapman (LW).

 

  • Did You Know They Were Guns?

Each year there are those sneaky DTers that you never notice. You know, the sort of players that you’ll scoff at when you see them lining up in your opponent’s ‘unique players’ list. Well, sometimes, they’re actually legit. I pulled back some thick layers of prejudice and took a closer look at the guys you never knew could actually score.

Bachar Houli – $351,400 – 78.5 avg

I loosely define a defensive Premium as anyone who averages over 80 points (in the backline of course) and Houli is very much on the brink of that category. To be  honest, the emergence of Tuck and Grigg meant that I completely forgot that the ex-Bomber existed. Looking at his scores, he’s only had one score under 60, meaning that he’s pretty reliable for that 70 points each week. And like Griff pointed out this morning in his Mad Monday column, playing every game is nothing to sneeze at.

Trent Cotchin – $504,800 – 108.8 avg

While it’s been common knowledge that Trent Cotchin is a SC gun for a fair while now, I never knew he had progressed so far as an accumulator. He’s ranked 12th in the league for disposals per game, as well as being the 9th-highest averaging DTer going around. When Gary Ablett and Dane Swan drift away, it’ll be Cotchin taking their place at the top.

Nic Naitanui – $401,100 – 85.9 avg

NicNat can do a lot of things on the footy field, but he’s never been known as a DTer. The competition is very possession-heavy, for which Naitanui is notorious for gaining very few of. What he has done, is increase his output in almost every other critical statistical category since last season – increasing his Marks by 0.9 per game, Goals by 0.3 and Hit-outs by 5.5. Add it together, and that’s an extra 10 DT points per game. Imagine how good he could be if he increased his possession rate from roughly 13 disposals a game, as well as a boost in marks to a more ruckman-like 4.0 or so per game…

Matthew Wright – $412,900 – 85.31 avg

Danny Stanley (93.0 avg) and Harley Bennell (86.1 avg) could have rated a mention here; but given their fantasy relevance last year, it’s possibly not so surprising to the experienced DTer. Matthew Wright, however, is a huge shock to me. I (possibly naively) thought he was a role player at best in the Adelaide line-up, but he obviously does a lot of grunt work. His last five weeks have been exceptional, averaging 103.6 as a Mid/Fwd DPP in that time. It’s only his 2nd season, so watch out for Wright in years to come…

 

Anyone that you think I’ve missed? As usual, let me know in the comments or on Twitter!

 

  • Reflex Trades

Cyril Rioli (shoulder) – $427,500   

 Paul Chapman (calf) – $415,200  →  Stevie J – $393,500

      Nat Fyfe (ankle) – $392,900  

This is all situation-specific, as many coaches will be able to hold any of these three on their benches if they have the week off, courtesy of a Qualifying Final victory. However, all matches from now on are do-or-die; so if you’re playing this week you might need that extra boost to push you through to the next round.

We’re still yet to find out how this trio is shaping up for Round 21; Cyril is getting shoulder scans today, as is Fyfe’s ankle, while Geelong are keeping mum about the extent of Chapman’s injury. It’s very possible that none of these guys will pull through, so who do we look to for a replacement?

Stevie J. I already mentioned him in the Makers, but his form and price are both undeniable as this stage. He also has a history of finishing the year strong, averaging 123 points in his last five regular-season matches in 2011 (as well as 99.8 over the same period the year before).

 

       Nick Riewoldt (knee) – $375,700  

Jason Porplyzia (shoulder) – $373,700 David Hale – $379,400

If you don’t have the extra $20k sitting around for Stevie J, you’ll have to entertain someone a little cheaper. David Hale is a bit out of left field, but I like him for a couple of reasons. Firstly, he has form under his belt. He hasn’t scored under 75 in his last six outings (yes, I know most of that was without Franklin), including 4 scores in the 90’s. Consistency is his jam. Secondly, he offers great ruck insurance if your side makes it through this weekend and anything happens to Cox, Maric, Jacobs or whoever your Premo ruckmen happen to be. You’d simply trade out the injured ruckman, swing Hale into the ruck line and snap up whichever forward you can afford!

If you’re not into that, then (don’t laugh…) Chad Cornes ($376,700) has some interesting numbers lately, averaging 96.3 points in his last three games. But can you rely on him to play out the year? Probably not. That leaves Adam Goodes ($338,700) and Allen Christensen ($317,800) as possibly stop-gaps, although beware that Goodes is playing a lot more up forward and Bundy constantly gives his coaches heart attacks after he cops hit after hit.

 

Brent Stanton (softness) – $407,000Kade Simpson – $353,300

I thought getting Priddis at $380k was a steal, how about Kade Simpson at a shade over $350k?! His price plummeted after being polaxed by Wellingham over a month ago, but he’s manufactured totals of 84 and 111 since his return. With Robinson and Judd both in the mix next week, all the opposition’s attention goes elsewhere and Kade is the beneficiary. If you don’t have a Sam Gibson type or you don’t think you can rely on him in an Elimination Final, then Simpson could be your guy; especially as Carlton comes up against an Essendon side that gave up five 100+ scores against a DT lightweight in the Roos this weekend.

 

  • Burst Fire

#  I called for Brendan Lee’s debut on Twitter two weeks ago, then recanted my wish in the Bullets in the hope that he would be saved for 2013; of course he gets the call-up just days after. The mature-age recruit was the third-highest scorer from the Bombers camp with 18 possessions and 6 tackles. Look like we have another Josh Caddy situation on our hands…

#  The largest bag kicked this week was 5, achieved by five players. One was Jack Riewoldt, but you’d never have guessed the others… Beau Wilkes, Sam Blease, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Paul Puopolo, who have played an average of 22 games between them, each had a bag of their own this week.

#  I hope the assertion that Gibbs has played the last two weeks in the midfield doesn’t overshadow the fact that he’s played the majority of the year in defence… DEF eligibility in 2013, please!

#  It seems like Hawthorn are doing the cheeky ‘in-game’ rest manoeuvre. Matt Suckling started as the sub this week, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see other senior players like Lewis, Burgoyne, Birchall, Sewell and Whitecross sharing the substitute vests over the next few weeks.

 

  • Round 21 and Beyond

As I alluded to earlier, if you have any match-ups from here on, they’re all must-wins. No second chances anymore! Trade usage becomes super important from now on, and requires a little effort and consideration. Study your opponent over the week (especially after teams come out for some inevitable selection drama), and make a call as to whether you’ll beat them with or without trading. With that in mind, there are four types of DT coach…

1.       Projected to win by 100+

Set a safe Captain, and enjoy your likely victory. If you have more than 2 trades left, using one to solidify you team wouldn’t be the worst idea, otherwise sit back and hope the universe is all about justice this week.

2.       Projected to win by < 100

This is the type of coach with the most difficult decision to make. If you have more than one trade remaining, it’s a definite trade scenario with a view to strengthen your weakest link. But if you have just the one trade… do you back in the projections and save that last lifeline for a probable Preliminary Final and possible Grand Final; or do you play it safe and do everything you can to make it to Round 22? It’s very situation-specific, so study your opponent and make the call you can live with!

3.       Projected to lose by < 100

Easy call – trade! It’s a bit of a cliché, but this is no glory in being bundled out with 1 or 2 trades in the bank. As for your Captain choice – nothing stupid, or you’ll regret it. Give it to the guy who you think will score the most points, and back your side to exceed the arbitrary projections.

4.       Projected to lose by 100+

Go all out. Use every trade you can, and consider a smokey Captain – if you had chucked it on Beams (131) last week when every man and his dog went Ablett (99), then you’d be laughing. Every bit helps, so don’t leave any stone unturned!

 

Anyway, that’s my two cents worth (so consider this a disclaimer). Good luck with your Semis for those who have them, and enjoy your week off for those who don’t!

 

 

 

Tweet me @Tbetta9 for all things fantasy.

53 Comments

  • I shall use this comment to thank Sam Gibson and Brian Lake for above par performances to steal a win
    Nick Davis 05 Semi Final Style

    Chap > Fyfe on Friday almost killed me

    • Unlucky with Fyfe – who would have thought he would hurt himself in the hotel room.

      Went Chappy to S Johnson which won me my game.

      Whilst injury to Fyfe was unrelated to shoulder, from a DT perspective, he is bordering (IMO) on the never again list. Great player, however, cannot afford it if he is injured again. The bar must be set high with limited trades. Also why I went from Ellis to Scotland (not Beau). Mistakes made earlier in season (chappy, fyfe etc) cannot be repeated at this point of the season.

      Thanks Tbetta – great write up. Had Hale all season (process of elimination with other ruck choices) and is finally showing more form. I do worry about his game against WCE in a couple of weeks, however, more concerned about Giles and will likely upgrade him for preliminary final.

  • Great Write Up Tbetta! Best of the season from your bullets.

    Have a really big dilemna this week. Got Both Riewoldt and Franklin on the sidelines. With Franklin all but likely to return it leaves me with Hall and Dickson as cover. Also got Zorko but decided I would play Treloar from this week onwards. Is Dickson good enough cover, I can rely on him to get me the 80 points a week

    One more thing is that this week onwards I will play Gibson instead of scooter? good enough?
    Won my elimination semi by 200 and now playing a semi.

    • and one more question, when does everyone think Riewoldt will return?

      • Scans revealed that he suffered an injury to a tendon in his knee, no structural damage. So should be out for about 3 weeks (Or the rest of the DT year!)

  • solid as always tbetta

  • Great point about finishing in the top 4.
    I did one of the worst trades this week (Hall (101) -> Fyfe (donut)) and have Swan, Chappy and Buddy but I managed to win this week and can now sit back and relax to wait for my injured players to return for my prelim.

    I’m very reluctanct to trade in Stevie J since all my cheap “value” forward picks have turned out to be terrible. I am looking at you Goodes and Fyfe!

  • Brent Stanton (SOFTNESS)…love it!

    • haha the guys a goat isnt he?

      Least he seams to be over his flying phobia… or was is the trip to Adelaide last week thát prompted the ‘soreness’ call

      • btw jeppa, got him at 600, and sold him last week, for swan….. luckily through to prelim

  • There was an article on afl.com that said Chappy will be back this week, looks like his calf strain was just the general again

    • Nice write up Tbetta , I hate Treloar and Dev because I “upgraded” both of them *sigh*. On the plus side there good targets for DT’13

    • Not sure about that – if it was the General they would have pulled him out nice and early. Wouldn’t be surprised if there was a niggle there.

      • Yeah – and it was reported (rumoured mind you), that he hurt his calf at training on Thursday. They named it up as that.

        Anyway, fingers crossed it was minor and was a little bit of ‘Perth-itis’.

  • Finally bachar houli gets a mention :)
    Had him all year and is finally hitting his straps

  • For me it comes down to Captain choice, Calvin is going to recommend Ablett again this week, but am really tempted to go Lids for the first time this year.

    • Against Freo in Perth?

      Does Lids get better scores on bigger grounds, or just generally because he is in good form?

  • great work yet again tbetta!!!!!

    btw anyone interested in another fpl league join in the awesomeness of league x with the code 138259-76086. will be good!!!

  • Had Trealor, Smith and Hall as my forwards 5, 6 and 7 this week and consequently have a bye in all 5 leagues next week courtisy of 5 wins ( albeit one of them from position 12) . Hall gets my golden stubby award this week.

  • really contemplating using up my last 2 trades this week even though i’m having a rest this week.
    horsley > allen (purely for the dpp and to free up some cash)
    and
    murdoch > stevie j
    These trades would leave me pretty decent cover including dusty on the bench. the only negative is that if any of my rucks go down, I’m screwed as I only have redden and campbell left.
    Good trade, bad trade?

    • You have the week off. Any trade is a bad trade in my opinion, unless you’re still sniffing about in overall or eliminator.

  • got the week off, porps to stevie j 2 trades left lovin it and also highest score in league x why coudnt it of happened last week when i needed it ahhhhh.

  • been reading every article on this site all year; only finally decided to register and post today. just had to say your articles are awesome tbetta – my favorite of the week and I do like them all. you guys have helped me improve heaps this year. thanks. also love it when the boys fill in for luffy from champion data on sen each Thursday, great to listen to. keep it up everyone.

  • Should I trade Tomas Bugg from the giants- switch carratz to backline, then bring in de boer in midfield hes the best i can afford
    team as it stands

    Def: Deledio, Goddard, Birchall, Heppell, Scotland, Dempsey and Bugg (Wilkes,Browne)
    Mid: Hayes, Pendles, Boyd, Thompson, Watson, Carrazzo (Miles, Kennedy)
    Ruck: Jacobs, Giles (Jenkins, campbell)
    Fwd: Sidey, Dangerfield, Petrie, Darling, Pavlich, Zorko and Dusty (Cameron, saad)

    • Apart from the weekend De Boer has not really set the world on fire. I think he will only average 10-20 more points than bugg. If you think those points are worth the trade do it. Depending how many trades you have left & the quality of your opponent this week i would hold in case or injury or rest.

  • I’m all over Matty Wright next year if he’s DPP again. Cotch is also a massive lock :)

  • Cheers Tbetta, great work. :)

    Interesting that Adam Goodes (58) escaped the Breakers this week? He was terrible, even Swan supporters were pointing out how bad he was.

    Also interesting reading about Mathew Wright, time to do some in-dept research! 97, 121, 110, 89, 59, 139 in his last 6 games, solid numbers for a second year player everyone’s pretty much ignored til’ now. Will strongly consider Wright if he’s a DPP forward in 2013.

    • He won’t be Boomer, but awesome if he was… Been on mynwatchlist since mid year… Hard to pick as mid only…even if smokie but surely Jack, Gaff will get the nod from most

  • Any suggestions on what I should do with my team?

    3 trades, $130,000 in bank

    Delidio, Goddard, Carrazo, Grimes, Suckling, Mackie, Waters (Clarke, Darley)

    Ablett, Hayes, Boyd, Thompson, Redden, Barlow (Miles, Williams)

    Jacobs, McEvoy (Redden, Campbell)

    Franklin, Robinson, Beams, Sidebottom, Goodes, S.Johnson, Zorko (Smedts, Kennedy)

    Going for the league, lost in the 2nd v 3rd playoff. Predicted to win by 100ish.

    • Franklin to Dangerfield when he gets ruled out for another week.

      Hold the other two.

  • Now realise why everyone says keep trades for the finals,going in to round 16 with 1 loss and sitting pretty on top,4 weeks later and knocked out in 1st week with swan,buddy,chappy,fyfe, broughton all on the bench.

  • Great article as always Tbetta, I look forward to the tweets on Monday notifying me of the Bullets.

    I made the two best trades of my DT career this week: Chapman to Johnson and Porplyzia to O’Keefe. Covered the Swan and Buddy zeros (DPP) and they bust out 265 points between them! I won three league games by less than 30 points, you beauty!

    However, I’ve had at least three of the breakers for the last six weeks I reckon. Scott Thompson is actually starting to play his way out of my side given what’s at stake, 60’s from the midfield cannot be tolerated in finals.

    And is anyone else thinking about picking Cox / Nic Nat as their starting rucks next season? I may be biased being an eagles supporter, but it has to be looked at.

    • +1 on so many points,

      I did Chappy to Johnson aswell and Thompson is killing me, I do have the luxury of bring in Swan the week after so my bench cover could be him if he doesnt improve (barring injuries).

      I have been thinking about the Cox and Nic Nat option too trouble is it will probably be the most expensive combo next year I reckon.

  • Good article as always fellah.

    I’ve used the three ruck policy all year: started HMac, Giles, Hale and made the one ruck trade (HMac to Cox) and its been good, but I am concerned about Hales points for the next few weeks.

    Buddy and Roughead possibly back and Bailey being #1 ruck choice could see him getting a 0 for me, so it was a bit of a “what the” when I saw him as a trade in option. Hopefully I’m wrong..

    Traded out Buddy and Stanton (softness) last week for Watson and Brent Harvey and ended up with 5 league wins (including DT Comp E). With Essendon playing Carlton, Richmond and Collingwood (all at the MCG) and North playing Collingwood, Freo (another elim final for North?) and GWS I’m happy with how these moves will pan out.

    cheers

  • Thinking of trading Franklin this week which will give me $529000 to spent with last trade. Who to pick is big problem out of:
    Crotchin
    Pendles
    Kennedy
    Watson
    Or in the forwards:
    Harvey
    Pav
    SteveJ

    Any suggestions on who to pick?

  • “Midfielder Nat Fyfe should be available for Saturday’s clash against Richmond after rolling an ankle last week in his hotel room”

    well lets hope so…. but this statement makes me question the accuracy of the ‘in the mix’ articles…

    “All eyes will be on whether Lance Franklin will finally return from a torn hamstring”

    if thats true I think they really have hidden how bad it is!!!! ;)

    • Read article in Age sport today that said Fyfe will play according to Ross Lyon

  • Great write up. I finished 8th projected to lose by 200 after chappy went out. Went all out played my benchies that he didn’t have, knew his capt would be ablett. I went pendles captain and his team had a shocker and the rest is history. I win by 50 and hope I welcome back chappy, franky , and stants. Just shows alot of luck can happen !!!!

  • Who do you guys reckon will cop the Crowley tag this week; Cotchin or Deledio?. Also, who would be
    the best two to trade in out of these four defenders; Grimes, Birchill, Waters, Suckling?