The Friday Scramble: Round 5

Well what a belter the first game of round 5 was!  Anzac Day has delivered some one sided games, but this year, we were treated to a fantastic game where the Pies srapped across the line.  If the result were the other way I think that the video goal ump would have been lynched after not giving Goldsack’s goal early on in the game.

Anyway, those that have Swan are flying high and the rest of us are left to see what we can do to get ourselves back into some contests.  And I am sure that most of us have Ablett so we need to work out what we are going to do with him.  Lastly we have trades to work out.  Are we going to chase the cash that we can see in Treloar and McDonald.

How Long Is Too Long?

This is the question that is on the lips of every Gary Ablett owner.  We all know that if the little master is out for only 1 or 2 weeks it is  a no brainer to keep him.  However, if it is going to hit 4 weeks then this could be just too long to leave him or someone of his scoring potential out of your team.

Some people made a great move (yes you Warnie) and traded out Ablett to get in Swan just before partial lockout.  However the rest of us need to have a long hard think about whether or not we want to take the risk and keep him and hope that he is back in 3.

Our mate @camosmith put together an article for us the other day on The Ablett Theory.  There are plenty of approaches to this problem.  I must say I am still torn as to what to do.  I think that one of the biggest parts of the decision you have to consider is how many trades you have made.  If you have used 4 or more then I think you really need to hold.  If you have only used 1 or 2 then I think you can probably afford to use the trade.

The other big decision you have to make is that if you do trade him out, are you planning to get him back in at some stage?  If so, how are you going to do it??  At his price he is hard to get to with just one down and up grade.  So you have to look at whether you think his price will drop and then he will be more attainable.  If he comes back and fires like he has so far this year it will be very hard to beat teams that kept him or got him back fairly quickly.

This is Rucking Ridiculous!

Carnage in the bigman stakes this week.  Firstly, someone call 911 cause the big 211 is out!  Aaron Sandilands has been dropped this week with a Calf injury.  There were some rumours earlier in the week that he had had some problems at training, but those fears were confirmed today firstly at Rossy’s press conference and then at the selection table.  I don’t recall seeing anywhere how long he is likely to be out for.  If it is just the one then keep him.

We have had trouble with Shane Mumford for the last few weeks and it was revealed this week that he had an infection from the cortizone injections that he had been having.  Today we found out that he had an op and will be out now for the next 3 – 4 weeks.  If you haven’t already, trade him out now!

If injuries weren’t enough.  Todd Goldstein found himself on the outer at Arden st this week and was dropped from the side due to poor form.  There is one group of winners from this and that is the owners of HMac.  If Todd remains out for a while then HMac will see his stats increase greatly.  Most important though it strengthens the job security immeasurably.

Most of us this year went with the 1 and 3 format for our rucks.  This seemed like a great idea.  However, 5 rounds in and we find that our two ‘lock’ backup ruckmen Jarrad Redden and Orren Stephensen are both not in their respective sides!  Couple that with any of the 3 guys above and you will have to make a trade in the rucks to ensure that you don’t cop a donut this week.

Can You Really Trust Sheeds?

One of the other choices that coaches need to make this week is whether or not to trade in Treloar or McDonald.  These two are both set for big price rises this week if they can hit their averages.  The biggest issue that we have is the job security of these guys.  Firstly there was another great article during the week Good Trade Bad Trade.  This was sent in by another friend of the site @jimbobholder .

For me here is what I see for these two guys.

Treloar – I like this kid, my biggest concern with him is the same as most of the youngsters in this team is that he will get different roles each week and is going to get a regular rest.  Having said that I don’t think that this is a reason to not pick him.  I think that what we have seen with some of these kids is that their scoring is very up and down (not to be unexpected).

Old McDonald – I like this choice more.  His price is lower so you will get more cash on your downgrade but more imprortantly I think that given his more mature body he is less likely to get rested, however that age issue means that he is more injury prone.  The thing that he has going for him is that he is experienced and knows how to get the ball.  I see his scoring as being far more consistent than most of the GWS rookies.

 What to do with a Loophole?

Ok, so I am sure that you all read Calvin’s Captains on Wednesday morning and set up your Loophole effectively.  You are now asking yourself… am I going to keep that VC score or do I run with another captain?  Well lets have a look at some of the guys you might have used.

Swanny – 171 pts.  This is a lock.  If you are chasing more points than this you are just a bloody hog.  Smack yourself in the head with a lump of wood and wake up to yourself.

Pendles – 113 pts.  I would be nervous about using this score.  120 is the generally accepted cutoff for a Loophole VC so I think that unless you have absolutely no other good options I wouldn’t take it.

Sidebottom – 109 pts.  This is where my VC was and despite him being robbed of a few points late in the game (I reckon they missed a kick and handball) this score simply isn’t enough.

Beams – 121 pts. Ballsy move to select the Half Swan this week.  (Perhaps only having one sleeve cost him that extra 50pts?).  However it was a good return from Beams and one that should have you considering him.  However, if you have Boyd v GWS I reckon I would still go with that option over Beams.

Stanton – 77 pts. No.  If you have no other options on your team that can outscore 77pts, delete your team…. Now!  Unlucky for those that traded him in this week, but Marty Clarke did a good job on him but unfortunately for most of us sacrificed his own scoring in the process.

So who should you have as captain if you don’t have Swanny?  Well read Calvin’s Captains!!!  And if you are too lazy here is the graphic from the Mad Irish Pirate this week.

For mine, the choice is very clear.  Matty Boyd should tear the GWS a new one and have a massive score.  I can’t see any of the Giants being able to stop him.  Well I am praying for this just for those leagues where I am playing a guy that had Swanny!

 

 

 

Get Off The Bench

One of my workmates and the coach of Smac That  was asking me last night, who to play out of Magner, Shiel and Greene?  To me this is a bloody tough call.  Magner seems to have picked up a tagging job all of a sudden and Shiel seems to be improving.  The mystery for me is Greene.  I just don’t know what role he is going to play week to week.  I think that this is a bit of a gut feel but for me I go Shiel first, then I think I have to go Magner.  I want to give him one more chance.  He has had two blinders and two more average scores.  If this one is another average one then I will certainly lose faith in him.  Let us know what you think in the comments below, I expect all sorts of combinations as this is a tough call!

The other thing that makes our choices a bit easier this week is the resting of guys like Kennedy and Hall who are both in a lot of teams!  If you have both of them up forward you are basically stuck with no emergencies!  This makes it even more important to keep your ear to the ground on Friday avo to ensure that if you have Fyfe, that he is playing.

Things to Remember for the rest of Round 5.

As we head into the remainder of the round, here are a few things to remember.

1. Trades aren’t reversible today – If you don’t know by now I would be surprised and use that block of wood I mentioned above in the appropriate fashion.  But we all know that after the start of a partial lockout trades are not reversible and will stick.
2. Whichever of Ellis and Morris you pick to play will score least – Well that is what keeps happening to me!  They are both inconsistent but they are both still maturing cows so you need to keep them for a few weeks yet.
3. Try not to trade a Half Fat Cow – This is a rookie mistake that we have all made at some stage where we trade out a cow that isn’t fully matured and we jump on another guy who we think will do well only to find them dropped a week later.  It also burns a very important trade.
4. Check your field for donuts! – With all of the injury and selection carnage that has been around this week, just do a last scan of your field to make sure there are no donuts.
5. Stay close to the computer on Friday avo! – Last week we found out all the hot selection news within about 2hrs of lockout.  This was that Fyfe was out, Mummy wouldn’t play and Birchall was out.  If you weren’t around you probably copped a donut.  I think that it just enforces to us that if you are serious about DT (and let’s face it, who isn’t) you need to make sure you can hear these late bits of info (Twitter is a great source) and that you can or have someone who can make changes for you at the last minute.

It is going to be tough for any games this weekend to top the big Anzac day game!  But let’s just hope that some of our DT scores live up to that standard and that Par this week is lifted back to where it has been early in the season in the 2100’s.

Hit me up on twitter if you have any late queries tomorrow @pkd73