Good trade, Bad trade?

So all the talk this week has been about a couple of gem rookies from Greater Western Sydney  on the bubble in Adam Treloar and James ‘Fossil’ Mcdonald and if we should prematurely cull a cash cow to jump on. Some old school stalwarts like @tbetta say ‘No! You can’t cull a cow before it has fattened, it’s a waste of trade!’ well times a changin’ and new age, unconventional strategies just may be the new black and what you need to get a head of the pack!

I’m going to look at a couple of the popular rookies that people have been talking about culling prematurely and seeing if in fact if you do lose in the long run or not.  Two of these popular rookies to be culled are Clay Smith and Adam Kennedy. The conventional way to trade would be to wait until their breakeven exceeded their average. Both Kennedy and Smith seem to have very reachable breakevens until their bye in rd 11 but are what we call ‘slow burners’ in that they accrue money every week, but not very much. This can get very frustrating, as the primary role of rookies (and especially mids) is to make their money and make their money fast to get those super premiums in quick. Combine slow burning rookies with visits form the general and the vest and you start to look at other options….

For me, the coach of ‘the running man’ I would look to trade McDonald to Smith and Treloar to Kennedy in my forward line. I also assessed other rookies such as Greene, Shiel, Magner and Devon Smith but believe culling these rookies is not economically viable, as they have too much growth lest in them. I haven’t assessed Tory Dickson, but it seems a no brainer to trade him! I have based my projections purely on Assistant coach data and if I did keep Smith and Kennedy, I would be looking to cull them in two weeks. Below is a table of the numbers of selling these guys this week, as opposed to two weeks time

Player out

Original value

Current value

Anticipated average

Projected value in 2 weeks

Profit if sold after rd 4

Profit if sold after rd 6

Difference

Smith,C

$107,200

$149,100

58

$192,200

$41,900

$85,000

$43,100

Kennedy

$104,200

$198,500

72

$236,100

$94,300

$131,900

$37,600

 

Player in

Original value

Current value

Anticipated average

Projected value in 2 weeks

Profit if sold after rd 4

Profit if sold after rd 6

Difference

McDonald

$98,700

$98,700

91

$256,100

n/a

$158,000

$158,000

Treloar

$104,200

$104,200

76

$222,200

n/a

$118,000

$118,000

There is obviously some holes in the data, as we have a very small sample size to pull from, combined with the general inconsistency of rookies and the unpredictability of the next vest, these values are by no mean set in stone, but is the best we have to work with.

To complete both trades this week would net me a profit of $136,200 in my bank account for instant use next week, but this is definitely not worth 2 trades. However, in two weeks time the projected future earnings between Smith and Kennedy is a humble $80,700 while Old Fossil and Treloar make you a cool $276,000 in the same time to be used for future trades, some $196,000 more than waiting. Add this to the $136,200 that you have made from cashing in this week and now up a $332,200 in current and future profit! The free cash could allow you to upgrade the stagnating Magner (thanks to his new tagging role) in 2 weeks to a fallen premium for minimum fuss.

Is this worth 2 trades? Well this comes down to everyone’s personal preference and situation. Myself, I think it is worth the two trades. Clay Smith cops more vests than Warnie when he plays, Kennedy has been on the downward curve and could get a visit from the general soon, while McDonald shouldn’t get a rest thanks to his recent 2 week stint on the sidelines and Treloar just getting warmed up after an interrupted preseason. Also, having a fit and playing bench is going to be more crucial than ever due to the recent general carnage in DT – injuries to Ablett and Gray, whispers of Pendlebury being rested and suspension to Stevie Johnson.

So in my humble opinion, I believe that prematurely culling these cows will work out in the long run to be more profitable than the conventional waiting until the cow has fully matured, while also providing solid bench options to add valuable points in the coming weeks.

DOWNLOAD: downgrade.xlsx

Feel free to hit me up on twitter @jimbobholder for a chat about DT!

148 Comments

  • If theres one thing thats a certainty about GWS’s line up each week its that theres no certainty about GWS’s line up each week!!! Hasn’t anyone learnt anything from Greene??? And darley who looks to be the real deal hasn’t even got a game yet! Guys like miles, horsely etc are all supposed to be guns… well where the hell are they??? Burning a trade to make a few more bucks on a 2 gamer with unknown job security and unproven consistency is a waste imo. Old macs a different scenario cause he has the runs on the board already (we know what he can do) but even then theres been talk that he’ll be rested a bit throughout the season from day 1. Call me old fashioned but culling a cow who’s still getting regular games in round 5 (c.smith, kennedy etc..) to me is a luxury trade and quite an exhuberant one at that. C.smith also plays gws this week (if named) and could come very close to tonning it up imo, which is why I’ve swapped him with magner on my field this week.
    I started the season with old mac so luckily aren’t forced to weigh up trading him in this week which is a real tough one, but re treloar, unless you have a dickson, cameron or smedts stinking up your pine, I’d let treloar fly on by.
    Didn’t waste a trade on greene, hope this works out just as well for me.

    • dools,
      One thing i know for certain about the GWS rookies is that they will be the ones who will be getting games regularly……..purely out of necessity!!!

      • yeah? well wheres darley, miles, horsely and co been then?? I’m sure they’ll all get games, my point is they’re constantly rotated so the ones I have that are still getting games each week- shiel, kennedy, bugg, d.smith.. I’m not about to trade out for shit! especially as they’re still making me money each week.

        • Dools,
          Horsley was rookie listed mate so couldn’t get a game til being upgraded (happening at the moment).
          Darley and Miles will play games but will also miss games as will all the rookies on the GWS list……….you just have to accept and deal with that. This scenario will still be heaps better than what we will have from rookies at most other clubs eg Tory Dickson, Harry Cunningham, Koby Stevens, Jacob Brennan, Billy Longer etc etc.
          You can’t expect 18 & 19 yo kids to play all games when lots 27 & 28 yo “veteran” can’t!!! Most of the GWS will play enough games in a reasonable timeframe to make good cash………just don’t pick the wrong type of rookie who won’t score well.

    • what exactly was smedts injury, still unknown when he is expected to return.

      • smedts is named as a reasonable chance of returning this week according to “in the mix” on the afl website

  • Thinking about:
    Fyfe > treloar
    C smith > barlow
    Will backfire if fyfes shoulder is fine, but can anyone talk me out of it otherwise?

  • Is Milera or Kennedy a better trade to Treloar?

  • I have C.Smith
    should it be Smith > Treloar
    or Smith > Macdonald

    Already made 1 trade this week which was Carrazo to Barlow.

    • C.smith is set to play gws this week and could kill it!!

      • Could kill it…….or might get subbed……..or not even selected!!
        See another one of rookies getting mucked around…….not just GWS!!!

  • Hey all you twatters out there. Has there been any twerps or toots from any one at Freo about the Fyfester?

    • From the afl website

      Nat Fyfe (shoulder) was held back last week after consulting a Melbourne specialist, but Fremantle coach Ross Lyon is confident the young star will face Carlton on Friday night after training fully on Monday.

  • Should of kept my trades of Ablett -> Swan and Fyfe -> Beams instead of reversing them

  • Who is a better option ziebell or Barlow and why?, I just can’t decide.

    • Rocky (this week) or Pendles next week represent so much better value. Watson is also around the same price range and Slewood isnt that far away either.

      Both Ziebell and Barlow may kill it this year but risks are involved. If you MUST choose one then check your bye structure and choose the one that fits better.

  • hey guys need some help, i have 20 trades left and $71,000 in the bank, contemplainting jumping on this treloar trade.

    I have found a way to do a double trade and bring in a player i wanted from the start of the season but just couldnt fit him into my side, i stuck with lanny hayes instead.

    I am thinking of trading out Devon Smith for Treloar in the fwd line (freeing up some dosh), then magner for brad ebert?

    I have swanny, boyd, deledio, hayes then my rookies in the mid.

    Would you think this is a smart trade or not, Smiths breakeven is still -3, i might just have to miss out on trealaor if i dont do this trade now.

    cheers

    • Bad move bro, Smith has good money to be made, Treloar should only be an option if a rookie looks like he is starting to stink and his BE is high e.g. Kennedy – though his BE isnt even that high.

      If Kennedy is rested and Treloar named, im pullin the trigger

      • Alrighty then, fair call, I’m just getting a bit to ahead of myself I reckon, nobody ever wants to miss out on the buy of the season, in which treloar could be the “one”. I will will just wait till my rookies make some more cash then bring in a proven premium, cheers mate

    • WOW Sam, Who is the player you wanted from the start but just couldn’t fit in??? Please don’t tell me it is Ebert……..or that you think he is better than Hayes!!!
      Sit tight mate i reckon. Trades now should be to real premiums not mid pricers who are doing well.

  • Ive got Cameron, hes got a minus BE, soon after two weeks I wont be trusting it… wondering if its worth a trade to treloar. Im guessing not. I do have Kennedy too.

  • Hi guys, ive got 20 trades left, and thinking of the following trades for this week. Keep in mind that I am not looking to aggressively trade when it comes to the bye weeks, as I’m happy to concede them as possible losses and still make my league final (which is my aim).

    Gibson (north melb) – old Mac

    Kennedy – treloar

    Not sure why I have Gibson, I think he was touted as being a possible playing rookie at the beginning of the year, but he’s doing nothing on my bench…

    Thoughts on one or both of these trades??

    • your trades have to last the whole year.. gibson will probably get a game soon as he has been shredding up reserves

  • http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/afl/crows-and-power-may-turn-to-afl-debutants-for-showdown/story-e6freck3-1226338329844

    I like the look of Young as a Rook, could become my Hall downgrade in 3 weeks time.

    A better replacement in Port’s 22 than Pfeiffer imo.

  • GAJ to Barlow/Murphy? Good trade bad trade?

    • I’m contemplating the same.
      Leaning towards Barlow as would give me enough candy in the bank to pick Gablett AGAIN in a few weeks.
      Am balls deep inside the top 1000 so had to trade SMJ…..

  • Hey guys I have 19 trades left and not sure what to do with Gazza. I’m only in a public league for my DT so I decided to take a risk as it did not matter as much whether I win this week or not. I decided to trade Ablett out for Goodes, this added to my already large chunk of cash in the bank. When Ablett is named in the sides i will upgrade Magner (who has hopefully gone up) to get Gary back.
    Was this a good idea or not?

  • hey guys, i’ve got 22 trades left, looking to pull 2 trades this week.

    thinking of trading bernie vince –> sam mitchell
    and then trading gaj —> either j. mcdonald or treloar.

    my question is who do you guys think is the better option?
    treloar has DPP which will be beneficial but j. mcdonald has better breakeven and job security imo?

    what do you guys think?

  • Already got J-Mac . Got Tory Dickson stinking up my fwd bench, i could make a straight switch to Treloar and 100k. Or I could get rid of Kennedy and get 100k in the bank. Thoughts.

    • I just done Dickson to Treloar – didnt look to much into – dickson aint gonna do too much sitting on the bench for me – even if he does get a game he gets a vest and scores f’all – so why not make some cash next week off Treloar.

      i hav 18 trades left.

  • What do you guys think about this trade?

    http://s162.photobucket.com/albums/t261/sergeantq/?action=view&current=dtwtftreloar.jpg

    That’s legit lol, was too scared to press ‘complete the trade’ though!