The Ablett Theory

Gary Ablett is probably one of the greatest AFL players going around and one of the best AFL Dream team players. The decision to make this week will be one of the biggest all season, to keep him or trade him out that’s the question.

From first sight the knee injury looked pretty bad however Gary Tweeted that the doctor believes his injury will take 2-3 weeks to recover, however he hopes to be back sooner. This can be taken both ways either Gary will be back next week or it could become one of those lingering injuries that could stretch to possibly 3-8 weeks and that price tag cannot be sitting on the pine to long.

Most people will replace him on the pine with a rookie as it is so early on in the season. However lets look at it a bit different I’m calling it the “Ablett Theory”

With most people replacing him with a rookie this is your chance to replace him with a gun a gain much needed points over the competition.

Let says Ablett is out for 3 weeks:

Possible Replacement with the “Ablett Theory” vs Rookie

Gun:  Brent Stanton, Marc Murphy

Rookie:  Dylan Shiel, Stephen Conigllo,

Dylan Shiel 58.75 x 3 = 176 v Brent Stanton average 134.25 x 3 = 403

Points Difference of 227

Stephen Conigillo 62 x 3 =186 v Murphy average 121x 3 = 363

Points Difference of 177

We can see from the above calculation that trading Ablett could possibly gain you 150-300 points if you make the right decision which can leap frog you over many people in terms of overall rankings.

Most people who have a had a bad start could gain lost points and this option is a perfect way to get those extra needed points.

It can also work in head-to-head if you have a few tough opponents in the coming weeks can use this to win the tough matches.

However the major problem is the use of two trades and the period that Ablett is out for.

But as a great man said No Risk No Reward!.

I’m not saying its the best solution its just an option…

Follow me on twitter @camosmith


  • im thinkin maybe trade gaj for treloar as i dont have him yet this way i can make the most of the cash increase kennedy greene or shiel before i trade one of them out to get gaj back in any thoughts.

  • My midfield feels empty without Ablett there :(
    New mids: Stanton, Boyd, Pendlebury, Swan, Magner, Mcdonald (Greene, Shiel)

  • What are your thoughts on GAJ to Ebert with a rookie (mags, shiel, jmac) back to GAJ when he returns