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tbetta's Bullets

Tbetta’s Bullets: Nab #1 (part 2)

This week’s Bullets aims to keep you up to date with all things DT and prepare you for the weeks to come! While I’d have to say that last weekend had slightly more fantasy value, there were still quite a few little gems slowly revealing themselves, and quite a few smokeys fanning the flames. Get on it!

  • Still Waiting for the Real Stuff

Is it just me, or has the novelty of the nab cup tri-series well and truly worn off? The games are much too short, the substitutes are much too plentiful, and the breaks much too damaging to the flow and momentum of both the quality of football and DreamTeam scoring. Last week I said it was great to see the return of actual football with Round 1 of the Nab Cup; now, I’m convinced that Round 2 is where footy really returns.

This leads me to a new pre-season rule: The tri-series ‘slices’ of football (I can’t bring myself to call something so brief a ‘match’) should only be used to widen your radar, or add people to your watchlist. Never should we discount someone based on 40 minutes of pseudo-AFL (the horrid last-touch rule, anyone?). I mean, if a player has a bad patch in a normal game, he has another 20, or 40, or 60 minutes left to redeem himself – but when the games are barely longer than a quarter of real football, it’s pretty damn hard. To me, it’s like that pulpy orange juice where all the flaky bits sink to the bottom if you leave it unattended for a while. Well, the tri-series ‘slices’ are like when you shake it up before you pour yourself a glass – anyone can come out on top.

  • End Rant

Okay, that was a pretty negative way to open the Bullets, but things weren’t all doom and gloom this week. While I’d have to say that last weekend had slightly more fantasy value, there were still quite a few little gems slowly revealing themselves, and quite a few smokeys fanning the flames. As you may have gathered earlier, I’m not getting too excited about any of these performances, but rather looking ahead to this weekend to see whether they can back it up in a full-length outing!

  • Cheap Tricks

Let’s talk rookies! I can’t go any further without mentioning the efforts of James ‘The Magnet’ Magner, who stormed into my current side by 2nd top scoring for the Dees with 39 and 33 in his two outings. The best thing is, like fellow rookie bolter Sam Gibson, he’s rookie-listed and therefore rookie-priced! Definitely one to watch for a senior-list upgrade.

From Friday night, Saad looked lively, Stephenson didn’t disappoint and Hogan burst back onto the scene with two productive games (38 and 28). Horlin-Smith (38 and 20) put his hand up for monitoring, as did Cunnington, Milera and Ross. The issues there will be finding senior opportunities for the season proper. Smedts, Wilkes, and Walsh were others in line for fantasy selection, but failed to set the world on fire for mine.

Apart from Magner, Saturday Night’s fresh meat came in the form of the Suns’ Aaron Hall (45 and 25), Demon Thomas Couch (23 and 29) and Lion surprise-packet Elliot Yeo (49). A common theme with that bunch is again Job Security, which looks pretty thin at this stage.

From Sunday, Wingard (46) and Kerridge (22) were the only two on my radar still currently on there, scoring and job security considered. Disappointingly, none of Rowe, Blee or Luke Brown showed up to give us a sneak-peek of their fantasy value.

  • Playing the Percentages

One of my favourite things to do when I’m bored is to check out the %-owned stats. It’s priceless for knowing whether your Smokey is gaining popularity, or conversely whether there’s someone gaining selection that comehow evaded you. But there are always some quirks that continue to surprise me:

# Sandi-Cox is still the people’s choice Ruck duo. They are, once again, the two most selected premium Ruckmen. While this really shouldn’t surprise anyone, it’s sort of interesting as the majority of the talk has been centred on McEvoy and Leuenberger, not to mention one-premo ruck stocks. A great example of the casual DTer vs the Fanatical DTer.

# Brad Dick is in 7% of teams, despite being injured for the first half of the year. I don’t know whether people are getting mixed up with him and Josh Hill, or auto-select weirdly loves him, but that’s a terrible stat.

# Boyd, Selwood and Mitchell aren’t in the top 29 most-selected. All three are coming off awesome 2011 season’s and have put in great pre-season performances already. The only reason I can see for their non-selection is the high competition for spots in the midfield this year.

# Porplyzia is in 16.3% of teams. And that is a couple of days after news of his calf injury broke… Seriously, how many times does this guy need to injure himself before we close the door on him?

# Israel Folau is in 9.6% of teams. Really?! Karmichael Hunt didn’t serve as a sufficient-enough cautionary tale?

# This next oddity is so outrageous, it needs a photo. How can this happen?!

  • Unlimited Trading? Challenge Accepted

At this time of year, your team structure should be taking some sort of shape. The big decisions, like how many mid premos you start with, your ruck structure and the number of mid-pricers you select should be close to being finalised. Which means, like me, you’re making like-for-like trades at this stage of the pre-season. Here are the top 5 sideways swaps I would be entertaining given the weekend’s action.

OUT Barlow ($424,800), IN Sloane ($429,500)

Sloane only played the one game on Sunday, but was everywhere, collecting 12 kicks and kicking a goal on his way to 51 points (next best for the Crows was 31!). Many have been preaching a Sloane break-out, and while it was just Nab 1, I’m steadily becoming convinced. Making way for Sloane could be your other mid-price mid option, the one and only Barlow. His knee soreness is expected to keep him out until the latter stages of the Nab series. I don’t know about you, but I don’t know if I have a big enough set to take the risk on someone like that after only one outing… So this makes Sloane the perfect fit for an exiting Barlow.

OUT Tyson ($170,700) IN Wingard ($157,200)

Playing a little extra bit of something-something for a high draft pick has never been one of my favourite manoeuvres – I was one of those that took McKenzie over Swallow last year – but Wingard showed enough on the weekend to be considered. Especially if you tentatively have someone like Dom Tyson already in your team. Tyson wasn’t mentioned in Sheedy’s (bullsh*t) first 22, although he did score well in his only Nab appearance with 35. It’s close, but I’m a bit more confident in the Chad’s JS over his fellow 2012 Draftee in Tyson, and you’ll have a little bit of cash left over.

OUT Walsh ($104,200) IN Saad ($115,800)

The hype surrounding Walsh after the International Rules series (they still do that?) was huge, but once you put an oval ball in his hands he was brought back to earth. Actually, he barely had it in his hands, only registering the two possessions for a grand total of -1 DT points. Meanwhile, Saad was very active for the Saints and wouldn’t look out of place in their best 22, putting himself right in the frame for Round 1. H’s a little pricier, and I’m still not 100% he’ll be a DTer (small forwards often aren’t rewarded by the scoring system) but he’s miles ahead of Walsh in my planner team at the moment.

OUT McCarthy ($251,000) IN Lucas ($206,000)

New opportunities for McCarthy at Port should mean better scoring, and he’s not the worst option for a cheap midfield mid-pricer. His only appearance garnered 5 possessions and a tackle, so nothing horrible – it’s just that Kane Lucas looks that much better! He’s cheaper, he scores more prolifically (45 and 33), and he’s a perfect candidate for the 3rd Year Breakout Rule! If you’re thinking of taking a Smokey in your midfield, stack him up against Lucas and make a call.

OUT Zac Smith ($355,400) IN Stephenson ($98,700) or McEvoy ($447,500)

While this is not strictly a like-for-like trade, Zac Smith’s performance has to have you worried if you’re rolling with the big guy as your R2 at the moment. He was lukewarm (an understatement, probably) on the weekend with 15 and 2 in his two appearances on Saturday. Why take a risk on a mid-priced 2nd year player when Stephenson (27 and lively against the Swans) and McEvoy (29 and 25, solid as the Saints only legit ruckman) are both tracking so well?

  • Tbetta’s Tweets

That’s a big question, and the lack of an answer is the reason why I’m going Sandi over Leuenberger at this stage. We’ve only seen the one game where they both played, and Leuey had 36 while Hudson had 8, but we can’t read too much into that at this stage. Ultimately, my gut says that Hudson is just there for insurance, and Leuenberger should continue to grow as a DTer – just don’t quote me.

Oops – sorry Rainman, cat’s out of the bag! But seriously, he’s matched the hype so far. A fit Sloane could be a real break-out contender.

Firstly, thanks Jack. As for Stevie J, I think you’re spot on. He has been overlooked, for sure. The Mid/Fwd DPP’s are in vogue in a big way, so players like Martin, Beams, Zaka and Sidebottom are absorbing all the talk. As for whether we should all slide him straight into our teams, I think probably not. He’s a prime candidate for the Premiership Hangover, apparently sporting a little beer bump after the festive season. For me, I’ll play it safe and stick with the DPP’s, and wait on Stevie as an upgrade option.

Too true, he’s right in the mix! But I am worried about his JS, especially as Stevie J, Christensen and Byrnes were all absent from the side in Nab 1. As is the case with many players on the watchlist, we’ll know a lot more from how he goes towards the end of the Nab in full-length games.

  • The Week Ahead

The three matches I’m most looking forward to is Eagles vs Port (probably because I’m an Eagles fan and I’ll be at the game), Adelaide vs Brisbane and Fremantle vs Richmond. That’s where most of the line-ball decisions for me lie, not to mention plenty of rookie-watching.

Ones to watch for me this week are Neale and Broughton for the Dockers, Sloane (to see whether he’s the real deal), Lucas and Hogan for their roles in the team, and, not surprisingly, all the GWS rookies against a legitimate contender in the Hawks. Bugg, Darley, Tyson and Devon Smith will all be in the gun at that game.

Thanks for tuning into to this week’s Bullets! Hopefully we are treated with some more reliable DT data next week, as I expect we will. Tip of the Week – keep a keen eye on team roles and the job security of your rookies, as these are things which the casual DTer can’t gather from a stats summary.

As always, good luck!

 

Hit me up on Twitter: @tbetta9

136 Comments

136 Comments

  1. Avatar

    mtooler

    February 27, 2012 at 2:31 pm

    Love your work mate!

    • Avatar

      THESKULL

      February 27, 2012 at 2:31 pm

      I love yours because YOUR FIRST

      • Avatar

        mtooler

        February 27, 2012 at 2:45 pm

        Well then, I believe champagne is in order.

        • Avatar

          Armagizmo

          February 27, 2012 at 3:59 pm

          lol!

  2. Avatar

    Shazzam

    February 27, 2012 at 2:42 pm

    Awesome read tbetta. Haven’t read it yet, I just have to say that so I can say this;

    THIRD!

    • Avatar

      Cmdevling

      February 27, 2012 at 6:25 pm

      And I quote….. ‘awesome read, haven’t read it yet, but’…..

      MORON!

  3. Roy

    Roy

    February 27, 2012 at 2:46 pm

    wow- that was an awesome article!

  4. Avatar

    Sceptic

    February 27, 2012 at 2:49 pm

    Sloane dominated and is starting to make me think that maybe I should have him instead of 4 midfield premos..

  5. Avatar

    cookiemon72

    February 27, 2012 at 2:57 pm

    Rainman you haven’t stopped talking up Sloane and yes mate I will also keep him quiet just for you won’t say a word

    • Avatar

      Ghengis Khan

      February 27, 2012 at 3:10 pm

      Sloane for PM?

      • Avatar

        THESKULL

        February 27, 2012 at 3:12 pm

        EVERYBODY PICK SLOANE COS HE HAS PLAYED GREAT IN WEEK 1 OF THE NAB CUP AGAINST PORT AND CARLTONS SECOND TEAM.

        He must surely be a favorite for the brownlow as well.

        • Avatar

          kbos

          February 27, 2012 at 3:15 pm

          still only in 1.8% of teams…. apparently it’s not catching on

        • Avatar

          cookiemon72

          February 27, 2012 at 3:17 pm

          Will do skull thanks for the advice

        • Avatar

          cookiemon72

          February 27, 2012 at 3:23 pm

          Or is it skulk?

        • Avatar

          Kuruki

          February 27, 2012 at 3:26 pm

          Sloane will skull fuk your entire midfield

        • Avatar

          Ghengis Khan

          February 27, 2012 at 3:45 pm

          Actually Skull I think you’ll find Judd, Swan, Mitchell and Pendles as equal favourites for the Brownlow.

          Hence Sloane is not favourite for the Brownlow!

          Huzzah, Huzzah, HUZZAH!

          • Avatar

            THESKULL

            February 27, 2012 at 4:39 pm

            Your an evil DICK TAKER

        • feathertopDT

          feathertopDT

          February 27, 2012 at 6:49 pm

          Carlton’s third team

        • Avatar

          Albert Lloyd

          February 28, 2012 at 3:28 am

          Yeah, like he didn’t absolutely kill it the last quarter of last season.

          Get a brain, moran

  6. Avatar

    Sloth

    February 27, 2012 at 3:13 pm

    Thanks mate, bloody awesome read and very much appreciated.

  7. Avatar

    tkol

    February 27, 2012 at 3:17 pm

    Love the article, the best I’ve read all preseason BOOM!
    If you’re a new dreamer then take note of all the players listed above!
    p.s. I want to lick Sloane like I licked the red zoopa doopa’s I devoured yesterday!

    • Avatar

      Zan

      February 27, 2012 at 3:26 pm

      you been have’n to many german sparkle parties ;)

    • Avatar

      tbetta

      February 27, 2012 at 3:28 pm

      Appreciated, as always, @tkol!

      As for Zooper Doopers, blackcurrant phaser is my go-to.

  8. Avatar

    travis

    February 27, 2012 at 3:19 pm

    great read tbetta. Was wondering where i can find the % owned player stat.

    • Avatar

      tbetta

      February 27, 2012 at 3:25 pm

      As @kbos says below, Using the Assistant Coach go to the ‘Player Research’ and sort by ‘Coaches Choice’.

  9. Avatar

    Pittbull

    February 27, 2012 at 3:19 pm

    Thanks as usual tbetta. Where do you find % owned?

    • Avatar

      kbos

      February 27, 2012 at 3:23 pm

      go to player research and then select coaches choice

    • Avatar

      mtooler

      February 27, 2012 at 3:24 pm

      assitant coach.

  10. Avatar

    Zan

    February 27, 2012 at 3:22 pm

    that was a good read
    thanks :)

  11. Avatar

    Pettiger

    February 27, 2012 at 3:22 pm

    Tbetta strikes again. Great stuff. I have all these rookie names spinning around in my head and still don’t know who to pick.

    • Avatar

      tkol

      February 27, 2012 at 3:38 pm

      You might want to try a method I used last night.
      Clear your team and pick all the rookies you like in order per position. Do this before you add any guns. Keep chopping and changing your rank each week and by round 1 you should be set.
      IMPORTANRT: This is not a Karma Sutra exercise!

      • Avatar

        Lenny

        February 27, 2012 at 7:54 pm

        After last night I thought I was set for round 1 because I’d tried a few positions. The Kama sutra position the Camels Hump, (He sits with legs bent and the soles of his feet together. She sits on him and wraps her legs around his waist) I reckon was prime position with rookies. However things could change before round 1, as rookies should be put in order! Now the The Peacock, (Seated, the lady raises one foot to point vertically over her head and steadies it with her hands,
        offering up her “yoni” for lovemaking) could be a prime midfield upgrade. On the other hand, the Victory, (Kneeling between her thighs,tickle her breasts and under her arms, call her ‘my lovely darling’ and [circle a little] around her nipples) could provide DPP freedom.

        • Avatar

          Lenny

          February 27, 2012 at 7:55 pm

          Sorry didnt read the IMPORTANRT: This is not a Karma Sutra exercise!

        • Avatar

          Zan

          February 28, 2012 at 4:37 pm

          dog in the bathtub ;)

          is where I’m at with my team

  12. Avatar

    Big Feller

    February 27, 2012 at 3:25 pm

    Great write up Tbetta!

    Is it just me or have your guns grown since last week’s pic?

    • Avatar

      tbetta

      February 27, 2012 at 3:28 pm

      Hahaha definitely just you mate!

  13. Avatar

    rainman

    February 27, 2012 at 3:30 pm

    Thanks TBetta once again, all the thoughts in my mind summarised in simple easy to read terms.

    Actually i have gone off Sloane he is rubbish…Kane Cornes however….

    • Avatar

      Big Feller

      February 27, 2012 at 3:56 pm

      Shhhh.

    • Avatar

      GJayBee

      February 27, 2012 at 5:59 pm

      +1

  14. Avatar

    Kuruki

    February 27, 2012 at 3:31 pm

    It’s so depressing when your smokie plays well during NAB, then you realize he wasn’t even a smokie

  15. Avatar

    Kuruki

    February 27, 2012 at 3:33 pm

    Wow i just realized why you look so familiar. If you shaved your head you would look like Stevo from Jackass

    • Avatar

      tbetta

      February 27, 2012 at 3:46 pm

      Stevo? That’s one i haven’t heard before… I’ve had that guy from Home and Away before, Vinnie Chase from Entourage, Mika, and now Stevo!

      Coincidentally, I just shaved my head.

    • Avatar

      ncd2888

      February 27, 2012 at 4:21 pm

      +1 was thinking the same

  16. Avatar

    Barony

    February 27, 2012 at 3:55 pm

    Ebert looked ok he should rack them up in DT as long as the ball stays in when he kicks it.

    • Cam

      Cam

      February 27, 2012 at 11:17 pm

      Why would it matter if they stay in as long as he kicks it?

  17. Avatar

    Canon Eyes

    February 27, 2012 at 4:15 pm

    Great article TBETTA.

    ZEPH SKINNER is not on your list…he scored prominently on the weekend. Also McINTYRE didn’t look out of place in close and offers DPP status. Will DELL’OLIO get a look in with the Bombers in your opinion?

    • Avatar

      tbetta

      February 27, 2012 at 4:20 pm

      McIntyre scored well in his only game, but appears to be way back in the pecking order. Dell’Olio looks great, but he’ll struggle to suit up in Round 1, and is yet to be upgraded to the senior list.

      Zeph Skinner had the one great game (11 touches, 2 goals), but reminds me of fool’s gold – if i remember correctly, he had a great pre-season last year as well.

      • Avatar

        Canon Eyes

        February 27, 2012 at 4:41 pm

        It will be interesting to see whether McIntyre or Callinan gets upgraded to the senior list. What was interesting was a recent interview (prior to the NAB cup) with Scott Thompson where he suggested McIntyre would be in his DT.

        Also do you see space for MOTLOP in the cats 22, perhaps as a replacement for an injured VARCOE.

        • Avatar

          Sloth

          February 27, 2012 at 6:19 pm

          byrnes

        • Avatar

          tbetta

          February 27, 2012 at 8:09 pm

          Yeah, I think he’s in the mix at least. Geelong tried to play him a few times last year, but his shoulders kept playing up. If he can stay fit, we all know what a Motlop can do.

  18. Avatar

    smarty_mc

    February 27, 2012 at 4:34 pm

    I”m thinking after the wknd that maybe Brad Ebert (Port) might be a unique pick just a tick over 300K and will be getting increased midfield time than at WCE. Might be a good upgrade for later on plus could spend money elsewhere. Thoughts??

    • Avatar

      mtooler

      February 27, 2012 at 7:04 pm

      I reckon a unique pick will be between 527,000-180,000 in the mids. When I look at the mids, not that many at a price point scream pick me.

      • Avatar

        Ridley U

        February 27, 2012 at 8:18 pm

        What about Lenny?

      • Avatar

        Lenny

        February 27, 2012 at 9:43 pm

        Lenny has got to be in the mix?

        • Avatar

          Magpie28

          February 27, 2012 at 11:26 pm

          I keep having to remind myself there’s one spot less on the bench in most positions this year… can’t just have that extra player sitting around hoping for a run at some point or giving you DPP flexibility.

          Spots in the midfield in particular are at a premium this year and I’m thinking of reserving them for guns and rooks (most bang for buck in terms of price rise). Lenny was a gun, no question… but are you prepared to you take the punt on him delivering again on the wrong side of 30 and a knee re-co?

          • Avatar

            Lenny

            February 28, 2012 at 12:03 am

            Yes I have to admit he is in and out of my side ATM due to your above mentioned quotes “on the wrong side of 30 and a knee re-co”. However it comes down to the structure of your team IMO and how many premo mids you have. With the inclusion of mid priced players in many teams Lenny could make it (become a premo as he was before the knee reco) or break it for your team (do his knee again). If he makes it as a premo ruck you are laughing but that is with like a lot of player this year coming off injury. Barlow? Lake? etc I think Lenny offers value but then so do all the midfield rooks!

          • Avatar

            Lenny

            February 28, 2012 at 12:05 am

            *ruck- how did that get there!

          • Avatar

            Ridley U

            February 28, 2012 at 9:21 am

            Nothing wrong with Hayes as a M5. If he gets injured then downgrade straight down to a rookie mid that is looking the goods and have plenty of cash in the kitty. If he doesn’t get injured then his price will go up and he will be easy to upgrade to a premium mid or keep.

            We are talking about a champion player who always has been DT relevant. His game is in and under with tackling so really cant see why his knee from last year will affect it. He has always had very good fitness.

            Everyone seems to be worried about him but the same that worry are jumping on J Brown who needed his face reconstructed. Hayes will comfortably ave more than Browny due to their roles that they play. I reckon he is really good value but it will depend on your structure.

  19. Avatar

    Mr Burns

    February 27, 2012 at 4:36 pm

    Great write up betta, would anyone else agree that this years dt will be won in the backline with plenty of fwd/mid dpp there seems to be plenty more options in the other two main areas and the ability to move a dpp into the forward line and replace them with a gun out and out mid (boyd , mitchell etc) i cant see that happening with defensive dpp. Im having a tough time getting my backs right I want heater but cant trust him and currently have 3 tigers Lids Morris & Ellis everytime i see 3 tigers in there i have a mini vomit in my mouth any advice would be muchly appricated

    • Avatar

      dools

      February 27, 2012 at 5:09 pm

      I’d bring in shaw. I swallowed my pride and did it. He can’t monumentally balls up again this year surely! 3 tiges is too many. Maybe swap ellis for darley or mohr if you don’t already have them.

      • Avatar

        GJayBee

        February 27, 2012 at 5:57 pm

        I’m on Shaw. Almost all players take years to be truly consistent. I think Shaw is heading that way. I have him knowing that he might pull a 38 out of the hat one week. But, I’m hoping for a dozen 100’s!

        After the $10 bet last year, the car accident a few years before, and basically everything – Shaw has joined the leadership group!

        The coaching staff at Collingwood must at least believe their is an odds on chance Shaw will keep his nose clean.

        • Avatar

          Pittbull

          February 27, 2012 at 9:45 pm

          Ben Cousins.

  20. Avatar

    bryzza

    February 27, 2012 at 5:05 pm

    how come i cant see total number of selections ? i do have the season pass

  21. Avatar

    dtHobzie

    February 27, 2012 at 5:16 pm

    An article on Adelaides website from today says Porps and Knight are back in full training and could play this weekend. Porps will probly only get injured again tho….for some reason he’s still in my team at the moment.

  22. Avatar

    Canon Eyes

    February 27, 2012 at 5:18 pm

    Anybody up for a challenge…join 823476

  23. Avatar

    Gus

    February 27, 2012 at 5:46 pm

    Whats the go with Winderlich everyone?

  24. Avatar

    GJayBee

    February 27, 2012 at 5:50 pm

    Tebbetta, some of your best work!

    You are a bastard for nailing the rooks so well and putting them in public! Love it.

    Gibson, Magner, McDonald, Saad, Darley, Ellis, Big O, Giles and Coniglo have been locked in my team. As much for their stats as out of hope. It is starting to look like reality.

    Someone said it perfectly that Porps was pushing the friendship to far, cut!

    Wingard is now locked and Hall and Neil are on the radar.

    Bower is also back on the radar after playing well. Although I didn’t see the game hahahah.

    Shaw, Goddard, Broughton and Scotland are looking good. I had said Scotland was to $$$ but I if he played 22 and averaged close to last year he would be top 3 backs for sure.

    Houli is still tempting.

    The round robin wank with a short bench was an example of control freaks at AFL playing their hidden agenda (Smaller benches and more subs?) without concern for clubs, players or fan opinion. Sometimes I wonder if they are just trying to slow down the game so no one dies!

    All is all it was great to see some footy and have a laugh at the standard which at times looked like really skilled little league football. Where every player is on the ball.

    Tebbetta, I have to say again, great article.

  25. Avatar

    Reprobates

    February 27, 2012 at 6:07 pm

    Ablett, Sloane, Shuey, McDonald, Wingard, Horsely, Neale, Miles (midfield). Sandi/Cox in the ruck. A reasonable strategy?

    • Avatar

      Albert Lloyd

      February 27, 2012 at 6:48 pm

      Very risky with one super premo only.

      Sloane and Shuey could end up being Top 10 mids by the end though.

      • Avatar

        Reprobates

        February 27, 2012 at 7:18 pm

        It is risky.The great value of articles such as this gives some stimulation to some different thoughts.

        Well done Tbetta, great read.

        I have five of the best forwards, aside from Franklin; proven midfield types.. and four of the best ball getters in the backline. The two best ruckmen. Two very promising midfielders with the best there is, Ablett. These players points, I hope will offset the initial weakness in the mids. The big decision is to pick the correct midfield rookies, if 3 out of 5 pay off well, may work.

        Not to mention the bench rookies in the other positions, try to pick the guys that will play, at least for the first hafl dozen or so weeks. Whilst scoring reasonably well in the mids from the rookies as they appreciate, I would hope to welcome Swan, Pendles, Selwood etc or the next Rockliffe after round 7 or 8 etc.

        Just wanted to have a go at something a bit different that I thought may interest some.

        • Avatar

          Reece Utd

          February 28, 2012 at 9:53 am

          I am assuming that by taking this method, your previous year’s tactics didnt work? So after waiting a year, this is what you come up with?? you are heading into the 2012 season without even one of Swan, Pendles, Mitchell, Selwood, Boyd, Murphy, Rockliff????? Is it just me or does look like a really bad idea? Personally DT is won in the midfield. Thats where all the points come from consistently. You’ll have to let me know how it works out for you.

    • Avatar

      mtooler

      February 27, 2012 at 7:11 pm

      That’s the best midfield i’ve seen, possibly ever.

      • Avatar

        Reprobates

        February 27, 2012 at 7:55 pm

        ..better than some may turn out.

        • Avatar

          cookiemon72

          February 27, 2012 at 8:11 pm

          I agree will be better than many midfields those picked by autofill that is

          • Avatar

            Reprobates

            February 27, 2012 at 9:14 pm

            No way I would take this risk..just threw it out there.

    • Avatar

      Ridley U

      February 27, 2012 at 8:23 pm

      At least you wont waste time thinking about who will be captain!!!

      • Avatar

        Reprobates

        February 27, 2012 at 9:16 pm

        ..could well be Ablett.

  26. Avatar

    Harper

    February 27, 2012 at 6:29 pm

    Chad Wingard = Leviosa. (but only if he ends up being a gun.)

    Hey Bombers fans, would you take a chance on Jobe Watson from the start of season? He tore it up early last year before he tore it up, so to speak.

    • Avatar

      J.Watson 3votes

      February 27, 2012 at 10:30 pm

      He is one of the most consistent DTers going round, if he stays injury free for sure get on, you can garrante you wont be dissapointed he wont get you the 160’s but he also wont get the 70’s, worth the money should ave close to 110 and I reckon you will hear my name called quite a few times on brownlow night, could just be byast but that is what I reckon, its up to you mate.

      • Avatar

        Magpie28

        February 27, 2012 at 11:34 pm

        Like so many others (Barlow, Hayes, Mundy, etc.) his injury history worries me, especially when you can set and forget so many reliable, high-scoring guys this year… Pendles, Swan, Ablett, Thomas, Murphy, Jelwood, Boyd to name just a few. I can’t justify risking any midfield positions this year. It’s consistently awesome premos only!

      • Avatar

        cookiemon72

        February 28, 2012 at 7:22 am

        Agree he is consistent – consistently injured and averages below 100 not a premium imo

      • Avatar

        cookiemon72

        February 28, 2012 at 7:47 am

        4 times scored in 70s last year just so you know

        • Avatar

          cookiemon72

          February 28, 2012 at 7:55 am

          25% of games played scored in 70s?? j Watson 0 votes

          • Avatar

            cookiemon72

            February 28, 2012 at 7:59 am

            In 2011 that is and never averaged above 100 in career

          • Avatar

            J.Watson 3votes

            February 28, 2012 at 6:35 pm

            There were 2 games where he tore his hammy 1 where he was subbed off with concussion and 1 where beau waters knocked him out, that adds up to 4 if you ask me, maybe you cant count. Know your stuff cookiemon72 before you post your negative rants, obviously he isnt going to score over 70 if he only plays a quarter, 0 votes for you mate.

      • Avatar

        Harper

        February 28, 2012 at 11:42 am

        :-D!! Is that you Tim???

        Nah…of course we love you Jobey. t’s just…do you promise to get at least 90 each week, and not get hurt??

        BTW. Forgot to give a big fat Thankyou to Tbetta for 2 awesome articles in 2012. Legend!!!

    • Avatar

      Cmdevling

      February 28, 2012 at 4:13 pm

      Bombers fan… and I wouldn’t get on the Jobe Train… love the way he goes about his footy and i think he is a good leader… just worried about the soft stuff stretched down the back of his legs… Sadly I think an elastic band stretched to the moon has more chance of remaining intact!

      In DT you need consistency… not just in scoring, but in being on the park to deliver those consistent score… fingers crossed he stays fit all year, but its a pass for me!

      • Avatar

        Harper

        February 28, 2012 at 5:30 pm

        Ta for the feedback y’all. Appreciated. Cheers.

  27. Warnie

    Warnie

    February 27, 2012 at 6:31 pm

    We’ll be hitting up the Hawks v GWS game on Saturday arvo! Looking forward to it!!

  28. Avatar

    juddy69

    February 27, 2012 at 6:52 pm

    I would be getting in Wingard but I read his aerobic fitness isn’t up to par to be playing consistently in the AFL

  29. Avatar

    SALTY

    February 27, 2012 at 8:06 pm

    Cheers Tbetta, cracking read on a monday night!

  30. Avatar

    Leroy

    February 27, 2012 at 8:16 pm

    Awesome write up mate
    cheers :)

  31. Avatar

    MC

    February 27, 2012 at 8:19 pm

    Great read, interesting that Darren Glass is owned just as much as Rockliff. Agree with the swapping likes for likes, I keep seeing if one person lookd better then the other. Still cant make up my mind with my premiums.

    I just realised as well and I should have organised my holidays around this but i will be in England for the day of lockout. This goes out to all the England followers, how do you go about the whole lockout business??? The way I see it is i will have the day before lockout to decide who i want based on the teams initial squads, wake up really early, 7am (UK time) hahaha, and read all the teams, and decide from there on the day of lockout which is roughly 8.40am UK time…… seems like a lot of pressure for one morning… Have i got my calculations correct???

    Cheers guys and once more cheers Tbetta

  32. Avatar

    Ridley U

    February 27, 2012 at 8:27 pm

    Great read TBetta. You are spot on this week.

    Can you advise how many spots Melbourne have on their list? I read somewhere it could be 3. If so then Nicholson, Magner and Couch all looking worth a look.

  33. Avatar

    Spiff

    February 27, 2012 at 8:45 pm

    Top read Tbetta.
    Might just dump fox footy as my two weeks tv watchin is in here.
    Stuff that, every game live, you gotta love that :P

    • Avatar

      dools

      February 27, 2012 at 9:00 pm

      yeah whats the go with live broadcasting for the season proper this year?? Is free to air still going to broadcast games and if so how many? If not, I’ll be upgrading to foxsports in a heartbeat.

      • Avatar

        Spiff

        February 27, 2012 at 10:19 pm

        Not sure but i think they just buy what they want.

  34. Avatar

    Lenny

    February 27, 2012 at 9:47 pm

    Great article tbetta! Love your work!

  35. Avatar

    bigdawg

    February 27, 2012 at 10:15 pm

    hey lads,
    been eyeing off setanta, i reckon the angry irishman is ready for a big year and with his tasty price…worth a punt?

    • Avatar

      Look at my guns

      February 27, 2012 at 10:17 pm

      bigdawg, i’m not going to lie but i did have him in my team at one point, he could be pretty handy for 75 each week but lets be honest is it worst $327,000 you could probably find an extra $100,000 to get a dustin martin or someone surely!

    • Avatar

      eeepobreci

      February 27, 2012 at 10:18 pm

      Warning, warning….Danger Will Robinson………

  36. Avatar

    Matt

    February 27, 2012 at 10:20 pm

    great article tbetta.

    How much should i be basing my team on, from the nab cup.

    thanks

  37. Avatar

    Jimmy.

    February 27, 2012 at 10:23 pm

    Great Article As Always Tbetta! :)

    What do you guys reckon Hayes will average this year, He is currently M5 for me, but conisdering downgrading as all the cashcows are in the middle this year ?

    • Avatar

      bigdawg

      February 27, 2012 at 10:27 pm

      Yeah mate had the same problem actually, had hayes as my 5th midfielder just a few days ago but realised all the rookies in other spots were terrible. I dont reckon hayes will tear it up so i’d downgrade, pocket the cash and make a run for it!

      • Avatar

        Jimmy.

        February 27, 2012 at 10:36 pm

        Cheers, it does spare up alot of money, ahah, but now I am stuck with 100k and unsure on how to spend it ! :P

  38. Avatar

    So Phisticated

    February 27, 2012 at 10:29 pm

    What is everyone thinking about Nathan Van Berlo? Finished last season and there was a big contention for him going Premium this year but now all the hype seems to be surroudning Sloane.
    Van Berlo or Sloane?

    • Avatar

      Reprobates

      February 27, 2012 at 10:44 pm

      Thompson gone off the radar..half a game and Sloane is the man. Thompson is a gun, great value

      • Avatar

        Magpie28

        February 27, 2012 at 11:40 pm

        Is it just me or are there a lot of potential mids at the Crows? Scotty T, NVB, Sloane, Vince, Douglas, Dangerfield and Mackay will all spend time there, and possibly even guys like Knights, Symes and Reilly. That’s a lot of guys fighting for a handful of spots.

  39. Avatar

    bigdawg

    February 27, 2012 at 10:37 pm

    I’d stay away from most adelaide players, i smell something fishy in the water around west lakes. Down at alberton i reckon H Hartlett is ready for a monster year. Never gets mentioned but has had a terrific pre season and if body stays right i reckon he’ll average 110+! The number 4 draft is ready to explode into a premo and also a POD

    • Avatar

      Look at my guns

      February 27, 2012 at 10:38 pm

      you can never trust the ferals down at alberton though!

      • Avatar

        bigdawg

        February 27, 2012 at 10:40 pm

        yeah we’ll see about that! showed good form in the NAB and wont get much attention so should kill it! and look at my guns? come on mate how old are you 12?

        • Avatar

          Look at my guns

          February 27, 2012 at 10:41 pm

          who else in port’s team will attract a tag other then hartlett?

          • Avatar

            bigdawg

            February 27, 2012 at 10:43 pm

            BOAK!

    • Avatar

      Jimmy.

      February 27, 2012 at 10:50 pm

      Yeah, Im tossing Up between Sloane and Hartlett as M4 !, Struggling To Choose!

      • Avatar

        bigdawg

        February 27, 2012 at 10:53 pm

        Definitely Hartlett..could develop into one of the best midfielders in the comp

        • Avatar

          Magpie28

          February 27, 2012 at 11:43 pm

          Just hope he doesn’t cop a decent hip and shoulder!

          • Avatar

            Reece Utd

            February 28, 2012 at 10:02 am

            Not touching port players bar maybe wingard. Will finish similar to last years ladder position. There is way better out there for value!

  40. Avatar

    farnstrom

    February 27, 2012 at 11:30 pm

    guys, this is fascinating, sincerely… but i feel i’m inundated (pardon my wallace/queensland flood reference) with names and values etc of players… i am interested in strategy – let’s face it, we can all bet on a wingard or a coniglio or a neale etc etc, but, where do you put your guns? midfield? forward, back? i threw up a quandary a few nights ago which essentially suggested letting the ruck section be a risk, to strengthen up other areas of the team (and by risk, i chose minson and giles for first rucks, instead of cox and sandi/mummy, assuming giles will be good for it, and minson is about to grow up). what do you think of that strategy? or am i just an idiot? is a cox/sandi (or lets’ face it, mummyford rather than sandi) going to be a more important combination than a couple of rucks who can almost be as good and free up your funds to concentrate on the big point getters… any thoughts? other than that i am a complete naive freak at this game? which i very may well be…

    structure, anyone?

    • Avatar

      Magpie28

      February 28, 2012 at 12:05 am

      This may seem obvious, but you should really be looking at stacking your team with guys who get a bunch of the ball and can sneak forward to kick a goal. Think Goddard, Deledio and Scotland down back, Cox in the ruck, any premo mid you like and Dusty, Chapman and Robinson up forward. Barring Cox (get it? ;) ), these guys also give you DPP to the mids in the majority of cases, which will come in handy as the season goes on.

      If you can find cheap ball winners, you’re laughing. We’re all looking for set and forget rookies ala Barlow and Curnow, as they tend to go up in price the most if you get them right… watching NAB games and reading the brilliant articles and insightful posts on this site will help you pick them.

      My strategy will be premos and rookies, as I’ve tried the mid-price option too many times (including in the Rucks) and played catch up with my squad since. The law of averages says someone will pick a handful of the right mid-priced guys and look like a genius. The reality is though, the rest of us won’t.

      I’m going for league glory only, so avoiding massive absences in the bye rounds and upgrading to premos as soon as possible is where my thinking’s at. One thing that’s helped in previous years is set and forget Rucks (read: Sandi-Cox). It makes it heaps easier when you’re only mucking about with three positions instead of four… and DPP can help you reduce that to two.

      • Avatar

        farnstrom

        February 28, 2012 at 12:33 am

        mate, thanks heaps for that. as i said, i am just trying to work out the whole strategy thing myself… thankfully, i had some of those guys in those positions (but i reckon scotland will be over it this year), but i found it interesting that you recommend locking in a couple of big scoring rucks. i have a “mid-price madness” team in a private league, if you want to experiment, as i will be this year.just let me know (and anyone else who’s interested) if you want to sign up. purely experimental. no kudos given or taken in 2012. mid price madness (league of gentlemen) sale is on now…..109137….

        but i should say, only genuine mid-price experimental teams will be allowed. anyone considered to be outside of an obviously unexplained rule boundary will be immediately expelled from the comp, or at least given a demetriou dressing down. i invite you all to play…

        farno

      • Avatar

        Cmdevling

        February 28, 2012 at 4:20 pm

        Probably the best written response to any poster I have seen so far! Well done Pies28!

      • Avatar

        Zan

        February 28, 2012 at 4:38 pm

        written response 10/10 ;)

        • Avatar

          Harper

          February 28, 2012 at 5:37 pm

          Yep. ditto, except…set & forget ..no guarantees…think Sandi!!
          and…a few folks mentioning Robbo. He is tempting, but don’t forget, he often gets a run with role. I doubt you’ll get consistency there.
          Which makes me wonder if Dusty would be the same. Tigers fans,would you back him over some other DPP’s like, Lewis and Fyfe?

    • Avatar

      Ramrod

      February 28, 2012 at 12:17 am

      The strategy I’m aiming for is to identify the rookies that look like they’ll be scoring consistently well with decent job security, and then choose the guns to fill up the spots. Ie, if you load up with midfield guns then you’ll need extra rookies in forwards and defence. But if there’s not gonna be a bunch of good rookies for those positions then you’ll have to choose shit players.

      I’m also aiming primarily for a league win, so choosing my guns and a few mid pricers based on value. Might sacrifice a few points early in the season, but hopefully the team value should increase substantially and will be able to afford an awesome team to come home with.

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