tbetta’s Bullets: Round 16

 

• Gary’s or None

Round 16 was personified by one resounding question: Did you have Gary Ablett?

If the answer is yes, then it would have been a devastating week for you. I know it was for me. Some of us limped to 2000, but in the majority, high 1800’s and low 1900’s were about all we could hope for.

If the answer is no, then kudos to you. Not biting the bullet on Ablett for whatever reason was gutsy and could have marred your season, but it has paid off now – and for the next few weeks. No Gablett probably means you had Swan as captain, which means you not only dodged a bullet, but you gained on the rest of the competition with his extra 148 points as well. But besides the massive scoring catastrophe that was SMJ, scoring was quite good, and means a lot of coaches netted 2200+.

• The Replacements

The big question everyone will be asking is ‘How long does Gazza have to be out for us to trade him?’. Unfortunately, there is no right answer to that. I mean, if he’s out for the season, that’s an easy call. But for a shorter amount of time, it all depends. It all rides on how many trades you have left, league and overall position, the cover you have for the next couple of weeks…

For me, anything more than 4 weeks is a sure trade. That encroaches on finals territory, and that’s when you need your best team out on the park. Otherwise, unless you have a silly amount of trades left or you’re going to cop a donut, you shouldn’t trade. But here are a few of the options you’ve got if you’re forced to go down that path:

Dale Thomas    AVG: 106.4

Being in hot form and with no byes left, Dale Thomas is probably our best option for a straight swap with Ablett. Malthouse has hinted at resting a few of his stars before finals though, but that’s the only concern with Daisy. He has raised the bat in 6 of his last 7 outings, pricing him at an even 413k. In a straight swap with Gazza, that trade will net you almost 50k to bank for the future.

Nick Dal Santo    AVG: 100.6

I won’t go into too much detail with Dal because I’ll talk about him later, but the Saints also have no byes, and he’s relatively cheap at $402,100 for someone who has been going at 129 a game over his last 3.

Leigh Montagna    AVG:  92.50

Nicky’s Saints teammate Joey has had an indifferent season to date, interrupted by suspension, bad form and injury, causing his price to plummet to a bargain $317,300! I’ll go on record and say that he will average 100+ for the remainder of the year, and at that price, its well worth it. He’ll make you a huge 145k from a straight trade from Ablett, meaning you can upgrade elsewhere without a costly downgrade.

Liam Shiels    AVG: 109.7

He has his last bye this week, but if you’re willing to overlook that, Shiels could be your man in a traditional sideways trade. He’s priced at $450,500, but you get what you pay for with Shiels, who has the equal 7^th highest average for 2011. He’s been going at 125 a game despite a quiet match against the Lions at Hawk Park, which was an 85 – not too shabby for a ‘bad’ game!

Hopefully, mostly for my sake, Ablett is only out for one or two, and is back to his best in time for DT finals. Please?

• How Crabs Get a Game

I hate forward tags. No – I HATE forward tags. Too many times in the past have I been burnt by Shaw or Enright being tagged out of the match, always with the dreaded forward tag. It feels a bit like cheating, taking out one of the opposition’s best playmakers by sacrificing the game of one of the hacks on your team – but then I guess that can be said for most of the tags happening every game.

The difference here is that midfielders get blocks and help from their teammates to free up, not to mention the experience from tags in the past. But when a defender cops that forward tag, there really is no way to break out of it, short of being thrown forward. That’s what happened to Sam Fisher on the weekend, playing his first game for Tbetta Than You. Port sent Chad Cornes to him in what would have been a bitter pill to swallow for the former fantasy great, but he played his part well, limiting Fisher to 33.

I suppose I should be happy. Having my week wrecked by Captain Ablett meant I was secretly wishing that all my players would have their bad score this week, if that makes sense. And now, the Saints have a full week of team meeting and tactics to figure out how to fix the problem if (when) it occurs again.

But not all forward tags are bad – after all, Brad Ebert forward-tagged Scarlett out of the game, helping my Eagles knock off the Cats. I’ll take Fisher’s 33 in exchange for that!

• Makers

For not the first time this year, top spot in the Makers goes to the round’s highest scorer, which this week is Collingwood superstar Dane Swan. His 148 epitomises what the Maker’s is all about – like Ablett’s 175 last week,  it was a score that absolutely ‘made’ the week of their owners. Not only that, he was one of the more popular captain options, which only crystallises his value. He wasn’t the best player on the ground at the weekend, but he worked just as hard as anyone out there, earning all 39 possessions and being rewarded with 2 goals.

Nick Dal Santo was the highest possession winner on the ground against the Power, and with his two goals he top-scored with 134. Let me just say that I’m not a huge fan of Nicky Dal, but it’s hard to ignore his form of late. He has scored 133, 120 and now 134 over his last 3 weeks, causing his price to skyrocket. He has often been a barometer of St Kilda’s form, and now it seems life is starting to imitate art, with his recent fantasy success coinciding with the Saints renewed ability to compete.

Jack Redden has long been overlooked for this list, mainly because I’ve always, and probably unfairly, assumed his sparkling form was temporary. But apart from a lean patch mid-season, he has been fantastic both in the traditional and fantasy forms of the game. He has now topped the ton in his last six appearances, with his 130 at the weekend his greatest in that period. That’s consistency.

Before the Dustin Martin don’t-argue jokes, there were the Priddis jokes. True to fable, this guy is as solid as they come, both in terms of stature and reliability. He has averaged 119 over his last 3, and with no byes to come, he could be a good unique 6^th midfielder. His 118 against the Cats was neither flashy nor incredible, but that’s just the way he likes it.

Rounding out the top 5 for Round 16 is Suns young gun David Swallow. With Gablett leaving the fray early in the clash against the Swans on Saturday, the kids had to stand up, and none did as well as Spitter. He finished with 114 from 22 touches and a couple of sausage rolls, which takes his three-round average to a slither over 100. If you have him, he could be safe to rely on as your 7^th midfielder, after a poor month earlier in the year shed doubt on his ability.

• Breakers

1. Ablett 23
2. Fisher 33
3. Petrie 24
4. Adcock 55
5. Lecras 57

As much as Swan boosted scored this week, Gary Ablett culled them. Don’t get me wrong, it’s not his fault. He was injured and subbed as we all know, but that doesn’t change the fact the he stunted the scoring of a significant portion of teams. As wrong and harsh as it is to say; Ablett, you broke us this week.

As i mentioned earlier, Sam Fisher was tagged out of the game by a spiteful Chad Cornes, and he ended on 33. Which is more than I dared to hope for when he was stranded on 8 at half time. Hopefully it’s just a one-week thing, with the Saints likely to figure out ways throughout the week to free him up if he’s tagged again.

Petrie’s form has taken a turn, with this week’s 24 following up his 51 against the Saints. His lack of scoring is mostly due to a combination of increased forward time (given Goldstein’s dominance in the ruck and Pedersen’s serviceable effort) and some terrible forward delivery from his North teammates.

I know Adcock’s coming back from injury, but it doesn’t change the fact that he hasn’t scored over 67 in any of his last 5 starts. That’s not a blip on the radar, that’s a trend. He’s actually lost almost 5k since his starting price, so no point trading him out now. I’m actually considering starting Stanley over him, which 10 rounds ago seemed as likely as Dal Santo earning a contested possession.

With no byes left, LeCras has been (unknowingly, probably) auditioning for a 7^th forward spot for Tbetta Than You. His form for the Eagles has been great – he’s been kicking goals and creating opportunities for his teammates, but unfortunately this form hasn’t translated into DT points like it does for others. He needs more midfield time to become a serious contender – 57 points isn’t enough.

• Hawkless.

Teams will again be stretched thin this week with the DT royal family in the Hawks having their final bye. That means no Birchall, Suckling, Mitchell, Shiels, Bailey, Franklin and I. Smith. Oh, and no Ablett. Shit.

Tip of the week – forget you have a trade button. Get brainwashed, or hypnotised or something – if Ablett’s sore knee has taught us anything, it’s that injuries happen. You need those trades for LTI’s people!

Until next time.

 

PS. Gary Ablett just tweeted this:

“Scans are good! Just showed some swelling…. Nothing serious! #juststrainedaheartmuscle”

I just performed the ‘Chainsaw’ in celebration.

 

Follow me on Twitter @tbetta9 for the latest