I agree to an extent that a players 3rd year can be their breakout year, but I would lean more towards saying that the 3rd year is when they start playing consistent footy in a team, they have cemented their spot and are pumping out a consistent 85 – 100 per game.
It is around the 5th, 6th and 7th + years that players will really go BANG and turn in to super-premiums eg Ablett, Swan, Montagna, Bartel and Boyd and will start to average 110 + per game.
Lets take a look at those 5 players…
Now there are always anomalies like Barlow last year and Selwood but there are a host of other players who go bang between their 5 – 8th years, I thought that this article could be a good point of discussion to analyse players who are following this trend and about to explode. What made me think of this was a discussion in a previous post about Shaun Higgins which got me thinking that EVENTUALLY he will become a premium… hopefully!!
One problem about trying to predict the next ‘Swanny’ is the awkward price range that the potential super-premium will be in. If you look at the stats above you can see that all 5 players pretty much averaged between 90 – 100 before they made the leap to averaging 110 +
Anyway, start throwing some stats and players around…