Patrick Dangerfield – Deck of DT 2017

Image result for patrick dangerfield afl.com.auName: Patrick Dangerfield
Team: Geelong
Position: MID
AFL Fantasy: $712,000
Bye Round: 12
2016 Average: 118
2016 Games Played: 22
Predicted Average: 123

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Why should I pick him?

What a silly question. He averaged 118 last season. He played all 22 games. He ticks literally every box you could possibly want as an AFL Fantasy coach. He’s durable, he has a high ceiling and is almost impossible to tag. If you really want to know why should pick him, just go and take a look at his stats last season.

He hit the ton in 18 out of his 22 games, 20 out of 24 if you include his 2 finals. From Round 4 onwards his lowest score was 93, averaging a ridiculous 122 points. He scored 130+ on 7 occasions, including a whopping 187 points in Round 12 against North. Trust me from experience, not owning Dangerfield is gruelling. Good luck watching Geelong play if you don’t have him!

During the years of Gary Ablett’s similar dominance, you couldn’t bare the idea of starting the season without him. Why should Dangerfield be any different? I certainly can’t see him going backwards! Some will argue that there’s too much value in the midfield and I agree to an extent, but that’s why we have 8 midfield slots. Dangerfield is the best player in the competition and if he’s not the highest scoring player this season, he’s guaranteed to be in the top 2 or 3. Sometimes reliability is under-rated in Fantasy, it’s not a ‘stat’ but it will give you peace of mind in that panic period before lockout.

Apart from the fact that he’s a machine, he also has a Round 12 bye. Bingo! I’m still finding myself gravitating towards Round 11 premiums so if this is a perk in picking the best player in the game then I’m in!

As you can clearly tell I’m a Dangerfield fan, but apparently over 70% of the competition (so far) disagree with my prediction. What concerns me more is that last years Brownlow medallist and highest averaging player tends to be an auto selection for casual players. Are we putting too much thought into our teams? I just think that Dangerfield is getting left out too easily, however if I get to play 3 out of 4 managers with Dangerfield as a unique then I’m happy!

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

I’ve genuinely had to sit down and think about this one. If he has a slow start to the season his price could potentially plummet and you may lose out on a lot of cash.

He’s going to have to match his performance levels of last season to be worth $700,000+, which even for Paddy is going to be a huge task. Geelong are planning towards spreading the weight load and easing the pressure on Dangerfield in the midfield, if this happens his scores could lower slightly.

If young guns like Neale and Treloar continue their form from the end of last season then even if Dangerfield replicates his form, he may be joined by a few newcomers. Every dollar saved is a win in Fantasy so it makes sense to chase the value.

You’ll be noticing a lot of ‘ifs’ here. That’s because based on his performances last season I can’t see Dangerfield doing anything other than dominating to competition just like he did last year. It’s going to take an unforeseen event to alter this prediction.

Image result for patrick dangerfield afl.com.au

Deck of DT Rating.

RATING – Ace. He’s 26 years old and heading into the prime years of his career, if anything Dangerfield has the potential to build on his breakout season and go 120+ this year. How do opposition teams stop him? I can’t answer that question and for that reason he’s in my team and going nowhere. From experience I can tell you once he gets going it’s bloody hard to bring him in! Just make sure you’re on the right side of the fence when Dangerfield has his next 40+ disposal game… He’s an Ace. Gun. Machine. Beast. Whatever you want him to be. Lock!

Will Dangerfield be the highest averaging player in 2017?

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40 Comments

  • Really weighing up whether to start him or not. It’s just a question of whether he can maintain that huge average. This article is putting me firmly in the start basket

  • 1.4mio on Danger and Rocky, how could you go wrong? Plenty of value to be had after that so why wouldn’t you? At least I am…

  • I have 6 high ceiling mids including Rocky and Danger with 2 rookies who I believe can average 65 but with Rocky captain and Danger Vice, bring it!

  • At the moment I’m only taking 1 and that man is Rocky. Upgrade target for me as it seems he will be playing more forward than last year and giving a few more lads a run in the middle

    • I think that’s wishful thinking. He’s the best mid in the comp and Geelong aren’t completely stupid ;)

      • Most likely will happen as Dangers skills are average at best. Have a look at the prelim final, all he did was bomb the ball in the air to the forwards and the defenders just peeled off their opponents and ran away with the ball.

        • lolwut?

          Ranked third for total disposals in 2016 and 5th for total EFFECTIVE disposals in 2016.

          If you’re going to come out with ridiculous calls please back them up with facts.

          • 69.2% disposal efficiency.

          • You do realise they class kicking to space as an effective disposal even if the opposition gets the ball…Obviously no one watched the prelim final.
            When he storms from a pack, actually watch what he does with the ball.

        • you must be blind

        • In the future if I ever feel bad, having made a really stupid decision or said something really dumb, I can reflect and know that at least I didn’t call Paddy Dangerfield average. Thank you, Roger, you made my day.

          • I said skills were average….learn to read.

          • Adding to this a few years ago an afl coach said to a question about tagging from the media and I quote ” Why would we tag him when he gives the ball back to the opposition?? He plays as a 19th player for us”
            Seems everyone here hasn’t played a high level of footy before. Just have opinions from the computer

          • Where did you pull that from?

          • So they give brownlow’s to hacks?

          • Brownlows are voted by umpires….Seems no one actually read my first comment. He is a contested beast but turns it over time and time again or kicks to space or kicks it on top of players heads. Watch the prelim final again, this is why he will spend more time fwd.

          • I applaud roger to having a view outside the normal talk on here. I’d agree danger is a very over rated footballer.

  • I’m bucking the trend and not taking a single player $700k plus. Big risk but I think I could be picking them up $50K cheaper in the early rounds. Only trouble is it’s a “wasted” trade but pick your rookies right and you can afford to trade these guys in early when they shed some early cost.

    That’s the current thoughts anyway.

  • The only problem with 50k cheaper guys is they need to perform if they don’t you won’t be able to trade in the best 2 like rucks just leave and enjoy the point income

  • Far too often i fall into the trap of picking value then crossing my fingers and hoping everything pans out ok.. which generally results in carrying ‘value’ players far too long into the season.

    Danger is a clear cut top 1-3 player in the comp, barring anything unforeseen. The potential of him playing in the fwds may actually increase his scoring aswell ! Save yourself the pain and just lock & load.

  • Going the Rocky Danger double here. I feel they’re a clear step over the rest and I don’t want the headaches of squeezing him in later after losing out on a mountain of points.

    • I’m thinking this as well. Both have the potential to go 120+ and then you’re in a real battle to find the 720-750k needed. With the value in the forward line this year I think you can load up on some big mid premos

    • Too many Matt’s! But I completely agree.

  • Now that he’s at his peak he could do an Ablett and have multiple seasons around the 115-125 range. Always racks up 30 touches and kicks a couple of goals

  • Only issue with going both PD and TR as uber mids is how you decide which gets the C each week – what a headache i can see that being!

  • If he were to come out and go 110 over the first few weeks he’ll still be around 660-670k, so even then he’ll still be hard to bring in. And yeah as has been touched on if he goes 120+ he could sky rocket around 750k. Is it safer just to lock him in from the start?

    • Another way to look at it is, “is he a dead set top 8 mid” the answer is obviously yes, so even if he loses a smidge he’s not gonna cost you trades, and barring a HUGE drop he’s never going to be an easy option to bring in, definitely early on unless you’re sidetrading premos early. Basically he may lose cash, but it doesn’t really matter as you’re not going to trade him out at a loss anyway.

  • Currently have Rocky,Treloar, Titch, Heppel, Beams, Murphy, Petreviski, and Bowes midfield with 131K left and i am seriously considering making treloar into danger

  • Thanks for a great convincing article Matt. I had Danger in RDT & Rocky in Fantasy but now going to run with both in Fantasy.

  • Nice article Matt.

    For me, spending $700k+ on him is akin to buying Mayfair in monopoly.

    I’m leaning towards spending my cash on lesser investment properties and attempt to have a larger return base along the board as opposed to the one

    • I can’t agree with that analogy, Mayfair isn’t the best property to own regardless of what it costs ;) I think there’s plenty of room in an 11 million budget to find some ‘investments’ and include the best!