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Deck of Dream Team

Karl Amon – Deck of DT 2024

Can Karl be a knockout pick?

Player Karl Amon
Club Hawthorn
Position MID
Price $783,000
Bye 0 & 15
2023 avg 86.8
2023 gms 21
Proj. avg 96
Draft range M4

Click here for 2024 Fantasy Classic prices.

Why should I pick him?

After back-to-back seasons averaging in the mid to high 90s, Amon made the move to Hawthorn and found himself playing some good footy on the wing, but averaging 10 fewer fantasy points per game. He did get switched to half back in the second half of the season and went on a serious run for fantasy, ripping off 6 consecutive tons in his new role to finish the year and reward anyone who picked him up. The sample size isn’t huge, but it was a great run, and shouldn’t be ignored as he looks set to continue.

We know the half back role is generally a good one to score in, especially in a team that doesn’t move the ball particularly well, such as Hawthorn. It makes sense to get the ball in Amon’s hands, as he is someone who will move the ball long when he gets it. The Hawks may be missing some key personnel early in the year with Will Day (foot) and Dylan Moore (glandular fever) at risk of missing time. Both players succeed in the uncontested game – potentially more outside ball for Amon in the Hawks heavy mark system.

The other wildcard is that Blake Hardwick has been training forward over the preseason with plans to play him there during the year. Whether he does (and whether he stays there) remains to be seen, but Hardwick led the Hawks for kick-ins last year, another potential avenue to easy points for Amon, who did pick up a few kick-ins at the end of the year.

An ACL injury in preseason to presumed full back James Blanck could also force James Sicily to play a more accountable role – one that has affected Sicily’s fantasy output. That could lead to a massive share of disposals for Amon.

The case for Karl Amon - by Daniel Prins - Hawks Insiders

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

There’s a few reasons. One, you’re picking him based on his new role, which may or may not continue. The ACL injury to Blanck could help, but with injuries to Day and Changkuoth Jiath (hamstring), there may be a need to move Hardwick back to defence and play Amon on the wing. If he doesn’t get the role I don’t really want a piece of this situation.
The other issue if half back role doesn’t eventuate is that you’re going to miss out on adding DEF status when the DPP adds roll out. I would always advise people to not pick based upon the adding of non-MID status, but it’s going to go hand-in-hand with the role in this case. I think he’s value as a mid in the half back role based on last year’s average, but you’re really hoping he adds DEF and moves into that borderline top 6, keeper defender area. Again, some risk there, but not too much different from the first point.

The Hawks are also unlikely to move the ball as slowly as they did in the final stretch of the year. Yes, Amon averaged 112 AFL Fantasy points over his last 6 matches, but he also took almost 9 marks a game and the Hawks moved the ball at a far lower distance per disposal than the rest of the year. In fact, Amon took a league leading 36 marks in his final three games. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but no-one is taking 12 marks a game across the season in 2024.

Deck of DT Rating.

JACK

Picking a player based on small sample sizes is nothing new – it’s what upside in fantasy is about in some aspects. It’s a snapshot of what a player’s upside could look like in a best case scenario. We just have to ask what chance that is of happening, and put into context the situation it happened in. Amon will succeed in a half back role and have upside based on his starting price. It’s unlikely to be replicated to the level we saw in 2023 with what Hawthorn did from an in-game perspective, but their style suits the role having upside.

If you break down what he did in those games it’s unlikely he averages over 8 marks a game. It’s unlikely he takes over 20 kicks a game. Can he? Sure, but that is the top of the range, not what I feel the expectation should be.

If you like him, you like him to play half back, add DPP and push the top 6 defenders. There are other candidates in almost the exact scenario though – Bailey Scott and Nic Martin who are priced very similarly yet slightly cheaper. I personally think Amon has less competition from touches and is a nice pivot from highly owned James Sicily.

He’s a decent POD at less than 5% ownership with a handy bye situation, big upside and a fantasy game we’ve seen before. The price point is awkward and there’s role risk. Enjoy!

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Roger
Roger
1 month ago

Too risky for me




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