Sam Jacobs – Deck of DT 2017

Image result for sam jacobs s.afl.com.auName: Sam Jacobs
Team: Adelaide
Position: Ruck
AFL Fantasy: $534,000
Real Dreamteam: $523,800
Bye Round: 13
2016 Average: 88.3
2016 Games Played: 20
Predicted Average: 93

Click here for DT Live profile.

Why should I pick him?

Jacobs had a down season last year, however, I am expecting him to bounce back.  He is clearly the number one ruck at Adelaide and will remain so this season.  Also on his side is the demise of the third man up.  His hit out numbers were down by 156 and his disposal count was down by 41 and he took 27 less marks.  He was clearly out of sorts from day one.  What this tells me is that he is underpriced for season 2017.  The two previous years he averaged over 95 and there is no reason the he can’t return to that level again this year.  I have been a little conservative by suggesting 93 for him.

The other key is that he hasn’t played less than 19 games in a season since crossing to the Crows.  This means that he is a prime candidate for you to have him as a set and forget ruckman.  Whilst he probably won’t be one of the top two scoring rucks at the end of the season, he is also $75k cheaper than Grundy and $108k cheaper than Gawn in Fantasy, these are valuable dollars that you can use elsewhere.

He has the last bye round of the season, this means that if you are looking for some cash early, you can bring him in your starting squad, then wait for round 12, after Gawn’s bye and hope that he has dropped in price and then sideways swap him if you must have Gawn but can’t afford to start with him.

Lastly, between rounds 3 and 10, the Crows only play one other finalist from last year and that is North Melbourne.  He could certainly build some cash quickly.

Image result for sam jacobs s.afl.com.au

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Last season does worry me.  He should have done better.  The drop off in hit outs is the biggest concern, as well as the drop in marks around the ground.  Whilst the removal of the third man up situation should see those numbers increase again, I am not completely sold that he can return to the numbers he had in his best averaging year.  He isn’t getting any younger, but his opponents are.

He could find himself under a bit of pressure from some of the younger more mobile talls at Adelaide including Josh Jenkins and Tom Lynch.  Both of these guys can happily play up forward and may be a preferable option against some of the more mobile rucks of opposition teams despite not being designated ruckmen.  Certainly not advocating that this will happen, but it may be a chance if he finds himself out of form for any period of time.

I think the biggest risk of picking Jacobs and planning to hold him for the entire season is his ceiling.  He won’t bring you the massive scores that Gawn is likely to get you.  Whilst he did have two scores of 120+ last season, he only cracked the 100 point barrier on 6 occasions compared to Gawn’s 15 and Grundy’s 11.  So he will score ok, but he just won’t compete with these big boys.

Deck of DT Rating.

QUEEN – Jacobs isn’t the most sexy selection as a ruckman this year, he is no Gawn or Grundy, but he is a workmanlike performer who rarely has a terrible game (just two poor ones last year, one he was injured and the Crows poor game against West Coast in R23).  The great run that they have early on should see him score well and rise in value.  He is likely to be a bit of a unique in a lot of your matchups this year and if he does perform then he could win you a few games.

Priced at least 5 points below the previous two seasons average he simply presents some good value.  In draft competitions when the ruck run hits, he is likely to be among the top 5 rucks off the board.

Will Jacobs return to his average levels of the previous two seasons (95+).

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @pkd73 for all thing AFL Fantasy (and more). Got something to say about the deck? Use the hashtag… #DeckofDT.

deckofdtstrip2017_620

7 Comments

  • No Ginger rule still in effect for 2017. Hit-outs aren’t the important stat here, field Jacob’s and you’ve got 22 souls vs 21. Pass.

  • Seriously? Stef is alot better option and is priced at i think 89 points.

  • Very durable over previous 5 years missing only 4 games, however, has not pumped out a 100 season average. 88, 96, 97, 75, 87 and as stated no big ceiling. I doubt there is any value in picking Jacobs at the start as there is plenty to offer with big scoring potential of Gawn, Goldstein, Martin and newcomer on the block Grundy.

  • Good article but I can’t go against the big 4 of Gawn, Grundy, Goldy and Stef

  • Kinda burned me a little last year and watching him play was super frustrating, he’s solid in that his base game of 25-30 hitouts + 16 touches pretty much ALWAYS happens, but he was really really bad at getting around the ground for marks and tackles, and his hands were poor. I can see him being back around 95 again with the rules switching and him being a clear number 1 (Stef concerns me as they’ve been wanting a dual ruck set up for a little while, and he’s not a hitout monster), but the frustration of last year, despite the solid consistency has me ruling him out. Gawnstein all the way.

  • Considering his durability, he’s been my set and forget R2 for a couple of years. Last year I rocked with Gawn and Jacobs from R1 and was pretty happy.

    Not sure about this year yet though. Will be monitoring pre-season closely.
    Currently rolling with Jacobs and Nankervis as R1 and R2, and have spent the extra cash elsewhere, but it just feels wrong. I’ve Sean Darcy as R3 considering how Freo rucks are going, but he could go down to a rookie and Jacobs up…

    Feels like 2015 when everyone started with the ‘Berger and got burnt badly (myself included).

  • I started with Jacobs last year as a ‘Set and Forget’ option, alongside Stefan Martin. That ended very badly. I’m not bitter or anything, in fact, I think you raise some good points. He could well get his average back up to 95+ this year. The problem is that a 95+ average is no longer the achievement it once was. It is entirely possible that Jacobs averages 97 and isn’t even in the Top 4 rucks. At this stage I think Sandilands offers far more value, so I’ll be going a Premo/Sandi combo.