Ripe for the Picking – The Rocky Trade

For 18.53% of teams it is a sad Monday. The GOAT has gone down again with another injury. That’s right, for those of you living under a rock, Tom Rockliff ($462,000 BE 122) is out again with another injury and while Leppitsch says it will only be for a week or two (source), the main man has to go, especially as he has a high(ish) breakeven and just can’t seem to get a good run at it. I was only going to do this article every four weeks as not a lot changes for mid-pricers weekly but I felt this disasterous week deserved an article to put you all at ease.

Please note: While this article is about Rocky it can be used for all midfielders, just none of them are as big of a deal as piggy 2.0.

I have sorted the following into two categories: Upgrade and Sideways. I’ve done this because Rocky is in a very difficult price bracket considering he has such huge scoring potential but such a low price, so I figured you would be chasing:

  • A replacement to score similarly to what Rocky can.
  • A replacement at a similar price because you don’t have the cash.

Please remember I cover the $250,000 – $550,000 price range.

So, without further ado.

Upgrades:

Just quickly, while he falls slightly outside the range, Tom Mitchell ($555,000 BE 102) is worth serious consideration. You can lock the gun in for the rest of the season and he just accumulates week in, week out. Seriously consider.

Bryce Gibbs ($525,000 BE 55) – My number one upgrade option, just. Gibbs has a last 3 of 123.7, a low score of 80 and a next 5 of Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Geelong, Brisbane and St. Kilda before having the Round 13 bye. It’s his next run that gets him just over the line of the next option, hence the “just” in the first sentence. I started with Gibbs and then trading him out to have enough money for Toby Greene before Round 1 lockout. Yes, I’m an idiot, it has cost me and I’ve regretted it ever since. Gibbs has been a bit sporadic over the years with his average, so there’s a chance it could go downhill, especially as his last 3 tonnes have come against sub-par teams in wins. If you’ve got the cash, go to Titch, if you don’t quite have that much, Gibbs is a cheap set and forget option provided he doesn’t lose his touch.

Stephen Coniglio ($537,000 BE 60) – So, here you go, somebody who hasn’t been spoken about since his rookie year. Coniglio has actually been pretty incredible this season and has flown way under everybody’s radar except for me, I managed to get him in my Ultimate Footy keepers league this season and he just continues to amaze. His last four scores are 129, 119, 123 and 113 making an average of 121 and he has the Round 15 Bye! The only negative I have about Coniglio is that he is unproven making him a bit of a risk but, as far as I can see, it’s definitely worth it. The only reason he is behind Gibbs is the 12k extra you have to pay, the risk factor and his next 5 are slightly more difficult than Gibbs’. It’s very slight and, if you think Stephen is a better option I don’t blame you in the slightest.

Leigh Montagna ($540,000 BE 130) – DPP. That’s all I have to say. Okay, well not really, but DPP helps Joey’s case a huge amount. He may be getting on a bit in age but Montagna still finds the pill just as much as he used to. He does have four scores below 100 but two of them were 98 and 99 so you may as well count them as tonnes too. A last 3 of 84.3 has his breakeven fairly high so it’s probably worth waiting a week on him but we don’t have a week so this week may have to do. I’ve been thinking about getting Montagna for a while now but there’s been too much carnage in my team to even consider it, but a potential Top 6 forward at 7.46% ownership is probably worth it.

5 To Consider:

  1. Tom Scully ($521,000 BE 101)
  2. Bernie Vince ($515,000 BE 101)
  3. David Zaharakis ($532,000 BE 92)
  4. Josh P Kennedy ($517,000 BE 93)
  5. Jack Viney ($525,000 BE 76)

Sideways:

Jordan Lewis ($484,000 BE 103) – The fallen superstar has just gone from bad to worse over the past few weeks, until the Hawks started playing proper footy again, albeit against Richmond. I’m not sure if Mitchell being out appealed to Jordan or what really happened but he actually seemed like himself, tearing the opposition apart with his trusty left foot and racking up 28 disposals for 117 AF points. The bit that impressed me though was his 7 tackles. When you can’t find the ball you can still smash the person who does have it and it seems that Lewi has worked that out. I’m hoping it’s not a one-off but he does have a favourable draw coming up with Fremantle, Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne and Essendon. I’m just not really sure what got into Lewis though. Was it the fact Mitchell was out and he felt he needed to step up? Did somebody speak to him during the week? Or maybe he just worked out how to get fantasy points again? Either way, Jordy is my in for Rocky, he’s a proven premo who has been out of form and is now cheap as chips, get on board I say.

Mitch Duncan ($485,000 BE 65) – Value, value, value. If you don’t have him, why not? If you remove the 16 from Shane Mumford flattening him, Mitch is averaging 106.5 this season and only has 8.15% ownership and I have no idea why. He’s much less of a risk than Lewis as you can pretty much guarantee 100 from him every week whereas I’m really not sure you can do that with Jordan at the moment. Geelong have Adelaide, Collingwood and Carlton in their next 3 so his run shouldn’t be a problem and, by the time they play GWS in four weeks I wouldn’t be surprised if he was priced at around $550k. I already wrote a paragraph about this guy in my last article but he is seriously so much value you need to consider him. Definitely the least risky option to replace Rocky.

Seb Ross ($497,000 BE 90) – POD alert! 2.52% ownership, 99.4 average, high score of 127, low score of 70, there are a lot worse options out there! Definitely unproven but how long do we wait before we consider a player proven? He’s not a premo by any means but he’s a good stepping stone and, depending on consistency, you could do worse than keeping him! After next weeks away game against West Coast his draw looks great with Essendon, Fremantle, Adelaide and Carlton all before his Round 13 bye. While Jordan Lewis was my Monday rage trade I’m sure I will switch between Seb and him countless times before lockout (I already have Duncan). They’re both risks but they’re different types of risks, an out-of-form premo or a pre-premo taking big steps towards becoming a premo? The choice is yours.

5 To Consider:

  1. Marc Murphy ($451,000 BE 79)
  2. Jarrad McVeigh ($460,000 BE 87)
  3. Jimmy Bartel ($457,000 BE 55)
  4. Dale Thomas ($432,000 BE 47)
  5. Matthew Wright ($430,000 BE 70)

So there you go. At the moment my trades are Rocky/Wells – Lewis/MacPherson which pockets me a HUGE amount of cash and sets me up until bye rounds. I wouldn’t recommend it in the slightest but I wouldn’t blame anybody for trading Rocky down to MacPherson after the week we’ve just had.

I hope the article helps with your Rocky trading. Any questions, hit me up on Twitter @Sparksy361. Hope your week is better than last round!

Happy premo picking!

101 Comments

  • Great Article, what about rocky to goldy via blicavs to mids.. thoughts?

    • That’s a lot of cash! If you don’t have Stef Martin I’d jump on him before Goldstein but it’s not a terrible trade. It depends on the needs of your team, if you’ve got a combination of Martin/Goldy/Gawn/Blicavs in your rucks then I wouldn’t look to change that too much.

      I think there are many better options but it’s certainly not bad as Goldy tends to score big!

  • Nice one warnie.I’m on the lewis train mate. Way to cheap,proven premo & surely has got some wind back in his sails after that game. Also looking forward to joey & McVeigh next week.

  • Thoughts on Bontempelli, boys?
    Went big last week, has a BE of 46 & priced at $412k.
    Reckon he can bounce back to some kind of form?

    • Had a look at The Bont, didn’t like him. He’s been inconsistent and I don’t think he will have a game like last week anytime soon. He has huge potential but I don’t see him being a consistent perform. Could do worse but could do better.

    • He went big because of a role change.
      Given the Doggies had a good win, I expect they’ll retain the structure.

      Redpath In released the Bont back into the midfield from the forward line.

      There is risk attached should he move forward again, or it could be a genius move !

  • Does Rockliff’s price change in RDT – ie lose money for us – any more whilst he is out? If it doesn’t then I am keeping him another week or so and getting in rookies who have 2 games and are going to make some money eg Keays and Petracca. Even with Houli, Gaz, Wells, Rockliff, Steven and Robinson having very weak scores I did okay, so I am not desperate for more points this week

  • Great article mate, loved reading it. Would love your thoughts on picking up Chris Masten as a bit of a smokie? I reckon he has a good run coming up and could score pretty well.

    Cheers!

    • Justin, as an Eagles supporter I have to say, please don’t do it.

      That way lies madness my friend.

    • I had Masten in my Elite team last year and it was just horrible having him there. He’s not a bad player and can score well on and off but you’re going to get the same output he’s currently giving out of a MacPherson/Smith/Petracca/Keays for much cheaper. Definitely not for classic, debatable for Elite but as a previous drafter of him, stay away.

      • I had him drafted in Elite last year too, and ended up returning him to the wavier wire!

  • My mate Callan Ward deserves a mention surelllly :) Have enjoyed the 110 and 113 in the past two weeks :) JPK for me

    • Nice pick up.

      Is Ward finally on the way to Uber status?

      • He’s lost 50k odd so far so maybe not yet, He’s in the right direction however. Can have a few pig days every now and then aswell.

    • Ward was looked at but I preferred Scully and other options, higher ceiling. Ward is very consistent though, kind of like a worse version of Pendles, I would pick Scully before Ward but Callan would be about as good as a Mitch Duncan (maybe) for a bit more money.

  • Hey mate, loving the articles so far. Any thoughts on Jimmy Toumpas in for Rocky? I think with Port finding some form he’ll really be able to move into that premium bracket and average 100+ the rest of the way.
    Thanks!

    • Smoking large amounts of crack to suggest Toumpas achieving premo status any time soon.

      His mate Polec wouldn’t be the worst option, 95 and 103 last 2 rounds.

    • Definitely better options than the Toump. If you want value you’ve got Jarryd Lyons down at $322k. If he plays you can expect a consistent 70-80 but I wouldn’t recommend it.

      • Lyons was dropped last week (technically ‘omitted’, whatever that means in selection terms), and I’d be unsure if he’ll be recalled straight away.

        Got to get rid of him too, on top of Rocky, Wells, M Adams… Jesus, my team is stuffed.

  • great article mate.

    my issue is i had sam gray fielded last round meaning i copped mccarthy’s 14. On top of that i’ve got wells who i’ve never been huge on and looks about time for him to go.

    i was thinking a double upgrade

    gray-zorko
    wells-d martin

    any thoughts from anyone?

    or do i upgrade one of them and downgrade another e.g. well to petracca?

    • I don’t think you can afford to miss Petrcca is this is RDT

      • afl fantasy.

        low BE this week 16. i didn’t see the game on the weekend. he kicked a couple goals so the extra 12 helped his score still a very good score for a second gamer. i’m thinking he’ll consistently score between 60-80.

        • He’s only gonna get better and better with more game time too.

    • If I could afford to miss out on MacPherson I would be getting in one of those two players, possibly both. If you think you can afford to wait another round on MacPherson because you have the cash right now that sounds like a perfect trade! Dusty is starting to find some great form with Lids back and Zorko will be a Top 3 forward but he falls just high of the price bracket I covered. Im still a bit worried Dusty hasn’t shown enough but he’s probably over his No-Lids Blues.

  • Thoughts on Nroo in for Rocky via DPP?

    • My mates and I were having a good chat about Rooey for the Charlie this year (we can only dream!) And yes, I think it’s a great idea, the guy does not stop working and he will be in my team come the end of the year. Lock and load.

  • Option 1
    Rocky > Riewoldt
    McGovern > McPherson
    190k

    Option 2
    Rocky > Riewoldt
    Fantasia > Bartel
    22k left

    Option 3
    Rocky > Duncan
    Wells > Gibbs
    33k

    Option 4
    Rocky > Parker
    Mcgovern >McPherson
    182k

    Thoughts

    • Option 2. 1 premium 1 midpricer for 2 premiums.

      Simples.

      Good Luck.

    • Any of those are good options. You want the most point return/$ and the most value. I would say Option 3 or 1 depending on whether you want to miss out on MacPherson or not, I definitely think Wells’ stint is done so make of that what you will.

    • option 3, duncan and Gibbs doing it for me over roo and bartel.

      wow, sounds like german p0rn

    • All good options. Id say 1 or 4 if you need cash generation. Or 2 will sort some def issues. 3 should settle the mids for a bit too.Depends on your structure.

  • Any thoughts on Beams and Zorko? Surely more mid time for these two now that rocky is out.

    • Zorko before Beams. Beams is a tad too expensive for me and I think there is at least one player better at his price but he is a stud so you shouldn’t regret bringing him in, maybe give him another week though? Zorks is almost getting to the must have point. And I don’t have him…

  • does anyone know when the 2016 bye planner will be available?

  • Shh!!! Cognilio is my dirty little secret. Got him off the waiver in draft a few weeks back and then had to find a way to get him into my salary side. He’s a ripper!

    • Yes, no one noticed his 4 tons in a row until this article

    • Have you watched any Giants games? The boy is a magnet, couldn’t avoid the Sherrin if he tried. I’m so glad I drafted him, he’s reeling in votes in my Ultimate Footy team.

  • I’ve managed to go Rocky to Gibbs and Wells to Riewoldt….

    Lucky me

  • Last week when I said I wasn’t trading in Rocky because I didn’t trust him anymore, someone called me a spud.

    Who’s the spud now?

  • What about Beams? Crazy unique and consistent performer

    Only annoying thing is when Brisbane are getting smashed this year their whole fantasy output drops as a team compared to previous years.

    • Beams falls outside the price range for this article. There’s better value, better uniques and I’d also like to give him at least another week but he’s definitely a worthy candidate to be traded in.

  • Is anyone considering holding Rocky? I have no cash in the bank so if I trade Rocky its going to be sideways and then another downgrade which will add one premo to my side this week. Alternatively, if I hold Rocky and do the classic upgrade, downgrade, I am also adding one premo, whilst keeping Rocky on the bench for 3-4 but im not losing out if im still brining a premo in?

    • It’s a lot of money to be sitting on your bench doing nothing and I don’t like the sound of the injury, it sounds recurring (although I’m certainly no physio) but you can hold if you have bigger fish to fry!

    • I know it’s a waste of a trade but if that’s where your heads at why don’t you trade in macpherson to sit on your bench and make you some money over those weeks he’s out then when he’s good again trade him back in.

  • Is anyone considering holding Rocky? Don’t know why everyone so keen to trade, aren’t we better of upgrading and downgrading 2 fattened cash cows, still adding a premo and keeping Rocky for when he is back?

  • So would you go duncan over lewis if you dont already have duncan?

    • Me personally: it would honestly come down to who I had in at lockout, I couldn’t decide. Duncan will be more consistent so I think yes but Lewis has such a high ceiling, he could average 120+ for the rest of the season and I wouldn’t be surprised and then I’d be left looking stupid. If you think Lewis is definitely back, he’s the better option, if you don’t think Lewis is back, Duncan is the better option. If you can get both it’s a pretty good idea I think.

  • Honestly, my bench and backline as so chopped up I’m going to need to hold Rocky if I want to get rid of Harwood before August! If it’s only a week there’s no point in wasting a trade on a guy you’re going to get back at some point. Add in the fact he’s in an awkward price bracket and I can double upgrade without trading him, I’ll hold. Depends on your strategy and bench depth!

  • I’m looking at Danyle Pearce as someone a bit unique. Been an underrated fantasy player for years. What do you reckon?

    Belter of an article by the way

    • Low score of 46, average of 73, plays Hawks in Tassie next week, plays for Freo, I don’t like it but there’s not a lot on defense wise so if you wanted to give it a go then sure! I wouldn’t recommend but each to their own.

  • Thoughts on zorko for rocky? He’s pumping out scores and has dpp

    • Love it, lock it. Make sure you don’t keep him midfield all season though because he’s a fantastic forward but only a good midfielder.

  • What’s better Vince and Bartel or Lewis and Simpson for Rocky and Adams?

    • Both great trades. I think I’d go Lewis/Simpson because Bartel burnt me earlier in the season but Vince is consistency at its finest. Lewis/Simpson with a higher ceiling.

    • All of Bartel’s recent good scores (including a 99, I think….) have been at the Cattery.

      But look at his record versus upcoming opponents and at those venues, and you’ll see it isn’t great.

      Regardless, Bartel is at a great low price, and it’s tempting.

  • Love your work Sparksy

  • great write up. After reading this article, was going to hold Rocky but thought I’d play around with a Rocky/Wells trade and will only leave me $4,000 left over but can bring in both Lewis and Duncan for them both. Would give me a midfield of Dangerfield, Titchell, Zaharakis, Ablett, Barlow, Duncan, Lewis and Matt Crouch. Bench cover is Smith and Davis.

  • My current midfield is Steven, Titch, Hanners, Selwood, Ablett and Duncan. I can afford any mid and I’m looking at Pendles as he’s one of the most consistent and best fantasy players. Is pendles looking ok? He was playing in defence due to being sore so if he’s ok he’s probably who I’ll go with. Also considering Lewis due to his price.

    Thoughts?

    • Pendles had 34 disposals and 7 tackles on the weekend, I’d say he’s okay. Pendles is always a great performer, I would never advise against getting him.

  • I am thinking of trading Rocky to Nroo, but need to swap B. Smith to C. Dempsey to do so. His three game average is up, but can’t help but wonder if there is a more reliable def for under 350k. Any advice?

    • don’t do it. If you’re trading smith you should be aiming to get a premo and smith is doing pretty well right now.

    • I’m not a big fan of moving heaven and earth to get Rooey in so I wouldn’t recommend it but I do have Dempsey in Elite and he’s been okay. Up to you but I’d find something different.

  • Thoughts on trades? Wells and Rocky out
    Gibbs and Wagner in by moving Adams forward. This trade means having another week with Mills and Adams should I get rid of them next week?

    • Adams is not playing this week so if you don’t have cover he needs to go whereas Wells might play, not sure if that throws a spanner in the works? I reckon you’ve missed most of Wagner’s value and he’s not going to score like he did this week every week but there’s not much else in defense so if you have to it’s not the worst thing to do.

      • Thanks for the help if wells plays I might have to rethink but if I move brown into the forward line and bring adams back to defense I could have harwood and Cameron replace him. Even though those two are crabs.

  • I avoided the carnage and didn’t bring Rocky in last week .
    My major headache is Ablett.
    Is there any sense in keeping him?
    Can bald Jesus return to his glory days?

    • I have a man-crush on Gaz and would never dream of trading him out for being 20 points below par and realistically you should probably have more problems to deal with than Gary. But, if you are chasing rank, any of the ‘Upgrade’ targets for this section or even somebody more expensive will give you a decent output consistently.

  • Looking to get rid of Rocky and Wells. Using DPP I’m thinking of bringing in Macpherson and either Riewoldt/Coniglio/Gibbs. Heart says Riewoldt but I just don’t trust his body. I’d rather a lower average and have someone play all games.

    • Coniglio and Gibbs will both play all games this season minus unseen injuries (as in they won’t be rested), I think Rooey’s body will hold up and he’s certainly not the type of player to be rested but you are right, he is less durable than two young(er) midfielders. They should all have very similar averages.

  • Hi Folks, thanks for another great article.

    Can we get some sort of ‘disclaimer’ at the top of each piece that outlines if it is only relevant for fantasy, please?

    Keep up the good work.

    • Apologies as I only play Fantasy these days as I couldn’t keep track of everything. There was nobody hugely different that I noticed for RDT or Supercoach so most options should still be close to the other forms of the game. Petracca is on the bubble this week in RDT, get him in.

  • Gibbs or Duncan

    • Gibbs has a higher ceiling, Duncan is better value. I’d personally go Duncan but wouldn’t blame you for going Gibbs. You can’t really go wrong with either option.

  • Lewis v Duncan? Duncan in better form but Lewis could really hit his straps from here and go 110 for the rest of the season

  • adams/rocky to simpson or boyd/coniglio or gibbs

    or

    fantasia/rocky to shaw or simpson/beams or riewold or zorko

    • Adams isn’t playing so I’d get rid of him first but both options are good upgrades. 👍🏼

  • What would your thoughts be on getting Jack Redpath for Rocky via DPP? Had a good game last week and I reckon he’ll really step up and lock up a spot in the best 22.
    Great article too!

    • Never liked forwards like that, too prone to a bad game and you certainly aren’t going to get anywhere near the same output Rocky can give from Jack. I did watch the game and he was immense and hugely important for the doggies, I’d say he’s more impressive than Tommy Boyd honestly.

      So it’s a no from me, especially as their are much better downgrade options, but Redpath was solid so up to you!

      • I know its not really fantasy related but as a dogs man i find the call of redpath being more impressive than boyd to be pretty silly. what do you see in redpath to suggest that at all?

        • Personal opinion I guess. I just think Redpath has more presence up there than Boyd does. I do love Tom Boyd though, he just hasn’t shown enough yet but he will get there.

  • Pretty comprehensive article, you obviously know your stuff. What’s your ranking like? Probably much better than me sitting at 15,000 odd :/