Roy’s Trade Talk – Round 6

Everyone knows I get carried away with DPP action, so what could be a better focus for me this week than to review the new DPPs and break down whether they are viable options.

Backline Saviours:

Before the DPP rollout, there were two defenders averaging triple figures and one of those is Bob Murphy. Enter these boys, the two most relevant targets in the new crop.

My number one man feels like a gift from the Fantasy Gods given the inconsistency of defenders over the first five weeks. Bernie Vince (DEF/MID, $516,000) is having a career year to date and looks to be thriving in the all improved Dees lineup. He ticks all the boxes, dropping below 100 on only one occasion across his first four games for 85, while averaging 105 in his last three. He is very unique, with a current ownership of .63% and has a reachable BE of 86, especially given his good record against the Saints. Following this weeks game, he faces the Suns, Dogs, Lions and Power so shouldn’t be slowing down anytime soon.

The age comparison and fact the Bombers are going to find it tougher by the week is the only thing keeping James Kelly (DEF/MID, $508,000) from my number one. The ‘top up’ or should I say, top three in the B&F is having an amazing season to date, racking up huge numbers across half back that has resulted in scores of 118, 91, 101, 99 and 111 for a phenomenal average of 104. Games vs Carlton, Sydney and the Roos is not quite as favourable as Bernie, but wow, he looks good and hasn’t relied on kicking goals to date, unlike Vince who has four for the year to Kelly’s one.

Robbie Gray (FWD/MID, $517,000) started the year like a house on fire with scores of 125 and 127,but he is currently on a slide of 64 and 58 which leaves him with a whopping BE of 144. Having a player of Gray’s stature in the forward line is a mouth watering prospect, and one I will definitely take up at some stage this year, however waiting until he has bottomed out in price is the best bet.

MB-AFL-7K-Sat-Slam

The Price is right

A player of the calibre of Scott Pendlebury  (MID, $562,000) will not be available for as low as this again this season after dropping 53K due to his failed experiment across half back to start the year. He has a break even of 91 but given he holds a three game average of 113 heading into his game against the Eagles, it poses no threat. He is back in the midfield, consistent, safe and a good captain option when faced with a favourable matchup.

Joel Selwood (MID, $515,000) used the first two games of the season as his pre season, and now he is raring to go with a three game average of 114. He is relishing in the fact he has support in the midfield, helping to avoid a tag and helping to overcome a tag. He has a break even of just 66, making him one of the most under priced premiums available this week, especially given his upcoming draw with two home games against the Suns and Eagles, followed by the Fantasy friendly Crows and Pies. All class, easy pick.

Twitter Time:

The only reason we could possibly consider keeping Gray is if we have more pressing issues. We can however, take some comfort in what appears to be a soft draw with the Tigers and Lions in the next two weeks. Surely he can show a glimpse?!

I am not a huge fan of the double downgrade, but it is a good time to do it given some very under-priced youngsters who are getting it done!

At this very moment, I am looking at offloading Dea first in the hope that Gray can show some sign of life/potential. AKA, Gray has the higher ceiling and I need a big overall score.

It all depends, but all going perfectly I like to trade when their BE is the same as their last three average.

Tough one, I would hold but I can understand the frustration

Dependlbury

DBJ is my pick of them.

I am a fan of option 1… Surely you have a better guy on the pine to play than Menadue? Can’t play Menadue.

Ok guys, cheers and good luck!

@RoyDT

NameClubPriceAveAddPos
Clay CameronGC$26300062.8FWDDEF/FWD
Ryan DavisGC$21200052.5FWDMID/FWD
Nick GrahamCAR$37300071.5FWDMID/FWD
Robbie GrayPA$51700093.4FWDMID/FWD
George HewettSYD$24300065.5FWDMID/FWD
James KellyESS$508000104DEFMID/DEF
Will LangfordHAW$41400077.8FWDMID/FWD
Jamie MacmillanNM$37600066.8MIDDEF/MID
Kamdyn McIntoshRICH$37800072.8DEFMID/DEF
Callum MillsSYD$29800066.4DEFMID/DEF
Bernie VinceMELB$516000100DEFMID/DEF
Aaron YoungPA$31100066FWDMID/FWD

84 Comments

  • Already have Danger and Duncan; is adding Selwood overkill?

    • Depending on your bye structure, yes and no. If their the only 3 from same round then it’s fine but if you have a few others I’d look for someone else

  • Can somebody post Tom Rockliff’s BE please? Tempted to wait a week but that will all depend on if he will still go down in cash.

    I’m thinking of a double upgrade
    Sheridan > Rockliff/Pendlebury (via mills)
    Matt Jones > Vince (via Cameron)

    I’ll have 46k in the bank with Pendles, and 104k in the bank with Rocky

    • Absolutely no incentive to grab rocky this week vs Sydney with a BE of 136
      Should be able to save another $20k next week and pickup for $490k….

    • i was thinkin the same as he plays at the gabba this week albeit against the swans but he tackles like a demon and last week he was just blowing out cobwebs if any one can make that BE its the rock. back ya self in and grab him if it suits ya plan and ya have cash as ya may have injury or the like next week then u be stuffed.

    • So many falling premos coming into calculations, you’re better off grabbing the ones you want when you can. Lewis, Gray, McVeigh, Houli, Rocky, Montagna, Zerrett, Stef… all on the way down in the coming weeks.

  • Vince/Kelly or go for Jelwood or spend the bucks on Pendles?

    • pendles for sure never seen him that cheap and i think buckley knows the experiment is over as he lined up in the middle from the start and played solid mid all day against the bombers.

    • pendles

  • My first trade is locked in, bringing pendles in.

    A few options for my second trade though:

    1: BenKen -> Petracca (if named) – 204k left
    2: Dea -> Tucker – 259k left
    3: M Crouch -> Jelwood – 34k remaining

    Should I go the double upgrade with Jelwood, very tempting at his price and break even?
    Or do I go for the cash and bring in a safer premium next week? Money could be valuable as Rocky, Titch and Z Merrett could all be bargains in the coming weeks….

    • can u swing ben ken into the mid and grab josh smith he looked cool and composed has great disposal efficiency and the collingwood boys were looking to give him the ball all day. also freo have crows giants and hawks to come vs the pies run of eagles blues and lions.

      • Not a fan of Smith, don’t think he has good job security, I’d be more inclined to get Blakely in.
        And BenKen is already in the mids can go forward or mid

        • na bucks rates him highly hes 22, an elite endurance runner who trains the house down bucks would need good reason to drop him i recon and against wce on subiaco he should score well and further cement his spot

  • Currently have gone the double downgrade to get in Wagner (so annoyed I picked the worst of the 3 defenders last week) and J Smith for Menadue and BenKen. However I’m feeling it might be better to wait a week on Smith and get in a premo like Pendles / Sidebum / Parker or new DPP like Vince or Kelly.

    Backline is a mess with Houli, Shaw, Fantasia, Adams. Dea, Lee, Ruggles and Cameron.

    Double down leaves me with 440k in cash.

    • if he pumps out 80 odd again against eagles which is highly possible given its at subiaco he would be over 200k and pretty much would have missed the boat money making wise i would bring him in this week if ya gonna get him at all. key is to grab rooks early as possible cos the cash they generate is pure gold

  • Gray To Vince

    Or

    Dea to DBJ

    other trades was meandue to JSmith

  • Lonergan to petracca and sheridan to kelly
    ??

  • AFL FANTASY (after trades)
    DEF:Shaw, Laird, Adams, Dea, Wagner, DBJ(Ruggles, Cowan)
    MID: Steven, Hanners, Ablett, Merrett, Adams, Hunter, MCrouch, Mills(Smith, Sumner)
    RUC:Stef, Gawn(Currie, Cox)
    FWD: Dusty, Hall, Barlow, Kerridge, Wells, Tippa(McGovern, McCarthy)
    145k remaining
    ive gone: Menadue>smith
    Davis>DBJ

    Thoughts? Cheers in advance:)

  • Sheridan/SGray -> Vince/Smith +169k

    Thoughts?

  • Cameron to DBJ and Gray to Riewoldt/Rocky?

    Or Dea and M.Adams out to a new rookie and Rocky?

    I am thinking option 1 this week because Dea and Adams wil both go up/ even if slightly.

    Just hoping a 125ker comes through.

    • adams wont make u much more cash if any and he plays the roos this week who are pretty tight with the DT point scoring i offloaded him this week as i think he will play more lockdown roles and opposition teams are paying him attention as well. Dea on the other hand plays carlton this week and should score 70+ in his rebounding/small forward role.

  • Wagner or DBJ?

  • Gday Guys,
    Fyfe has totally stuffed me this week!!!!!!! so he is straight out for Sidebottom.. actually scrap that, he’s out for Vince :-/ I think!!

    my other pending issue is Caleb Daniel! I’ve got Menadue (crab, stuff you Fyfe!!) and M. McGovern on the bench as cover, so should I hold on trading him because he still has so much $$ to generate and was scoring well? or should I flick him off with only 69k in the bank to upgrade??

    cheers

    • put mclovin on the field this week and u should get 70+ against the dockers but yeah i would be flicking him for now if it was me

  • Thoughts on trades:
    Adams to Vince (pretty well locked)
    and
    Dea to Byrne-Jones (field)
    or
    Menadue to J.Smith (bench) or keep Dea on field.

    • I would suggest to keep Dea around for a few more weeks due to the opposition he is playing. Scrap Menadue ASAP.

  • Will barlow play through the middle jow that fyfe is out, will he be a top 6 forward, and should i look to trade him in

    • Potentially, but it is a huge risk to get him in at the moment. Other than this weekend just gone he hasn’t shown anything. Gotta hold off a couple weeks and see how he goes. Mundy could be back this week also to take some of that midfield time back

      • Thanks i was thinking the same thing, not sure if i shoulddowngrade kennedy and lonergan to DBJ and wright or get pendles or another premo instead of DBJ

  • What’s better S.Gray to Hanners or Adams to Simpson?

  • Adams to Tucker
    BKen to premo mid w R13 bye…Pendles, Sidey, Treloar, Steven?

    Thoughts??

  • Should I go
    1. S.grey and J.Weitering > O.Fanastasia and S.Ross
    2. S.Grey and R.Davis > P.Wright and J.Steven

  • When do these DPP changes actually take affect? itching toooooooooo make make trades

  • Which set of trades should I do ??

    A) Lonergan and M Crouch to Vince and J Smith (on field) +112k

    B) Lonergan and M Crouch to Wagner(D6) and Pendles +11k

    Leaning towards Pendles and Wagner thoughts ??

  • What do people think Sam Gray can average over the next 3 weeks?
    Richmond / Lions / Carlton should push 85+ you would think?
    Watching some of last weeks game he gets into it, just his team letting him down.

    • I’m keeping cause if that too. Was at the game and he was around it just didn’t get it dished out. He was good in the first quarter when they were up and about.

      • I think he was 46 at half time, before they were dominated. I saw he was a target for marks but he always had 1 or 2 defenders bigger than him on him.

  • Should i bring in Zerrett or Pendles this week?

    Whats Zacs BE?

    • Zacs BE 120. Could get it to vs Carlton.
      Depends what suits your structure, both good options

  • 1. M.adams & lonergan -> vince/ Selwood & tucker
    2. M.adams & menadue -> Duncan & basement rookie (Blakely?)
    3. m.adams & lonergan -> Duncan & Wagner/DBJ
    thanks in advance 👍🏾

  • Only got enough to upgrade Mena to Duncan. Worth a trade or go the double downgrade and get a fallen premo?

  • What one should i do

    1. W Langford and C Daniel to Pendlebury/Mcgovern
    2. W Langford and C Daniel to J Smith/ Dalhaus
    3. W Langford and N Kommer to Sumner/M Wright

  • Who to offload first –

    Weitering or Dea?

    Ben Kennedy or Marcus Adams?

    • Weitering and BenKen, both have higher BreakEvens and less chance of reaching them.

  • What’s the better downgrade option and who to?

    B Kennedy –> J Smith or Blakely
    Menadue –> J Smith or Blakely

  • Have both Fyfe and Rance. Prob will go Fyfe to Pendles but not sure to trade Rance or bench him for 2 weeks and cash in a rookie

    Option 1 Rance to Bernie Vince

    Option 2 Menadue to DBJ and bench Rance for 2 weeeks

    • Who has Rance haha. Option 1 all the way mate. Rance to Vince offers better scoring potential, and although Menadue’s breakeven is slightly higher, it’s still VERY reachable. :P

  • Everyone is talking about Pendles being at an all time low and to jump on now he’s back in the guts. But what about Taylor Adams? If he’s now adopted that role in defence it would be worth doing a straight swap to pendles whilst we can. Obviously a very luxury trade but a viable one if we get in early… not in 3 weeks time when he’s scored 3 85’s and pendles has scored 3 110’s

  • Where’s some love for Seb Ross scored only 20 less points than hunter to this point and haven’t heard any comments on him

    • The 2% of people who picked him aren’t discussing DT because they obviously don’t need help. The rest of us don’t want to think about or mention the bargain that we missed.

  • Anyone bringing Petracca in now that he’s been named or is it better to just wait a week?

  • Jeppa seems to rate Blakely quite highly. Is he worth starting on field if named?

  • Rory Atkins worth a look as a downgrade from Fyfe

  • my team (fantasy, before trades)

    DEF: shaw, houli, fantasia, ruggles, brown(ESS), tipungwuti (byrne, spud)
    MID: hall, gaz, hunter, m.crouch, zerrett, de goey, rosa, lewis (mills, menadue)
    RUC: goldy, sinclair (cox, currie)
    FOR: dusty, m.adams, buddy, wells, kerridge, papley (mccarthy, spud)

    want to get rid of lewis but want to get DBJ, wagner, wright

    thinking
    menadue > wright (via wells or kerridge but dont really want to play on bench)
    lewis > dependlebury or n.reiwoldt (via dusty)

    suggestions

  • 1.Adams and s gray to DBJ and pendle

    Or

    2. Adams and sheriden to tucker and pendles

    Thoughts guys 1 or 2

    • I like no.1, however can u go S. Gray and Sheridan to DBJ and Pendles.
      I believe Adams can make some more money and with the injuries (JJ, Suckling, Murphy) his output might improve. His BE of 43 still achievable. DBJ has been a star in the depleted Port lineup, he has been everywhere, Port’s draw is a favourable and you can easily see him making 100K with a -25 BE.

  • 1. Double downgrade this week to get Rocky, Gray in next week or
    2. Downgrade Sheridan to a rookie (anyone under 200) and Lonergan to Pendles
    Will complete my mids
    Danger, Titch, Ablett, Hanners, Adams, Hunter (can bring in Rocky if Hunter is not a keeper), Selwood, Pendles

    Thoughts???

  • Adams > DBJ locked in, 125k in the kitty to play with. Thinking Dea > Fantasia (missed the boat last week) or Papley/McGovern/McCarthy > Petracca. Although I am kind of keen to see Petracca play at least 1 game before forking out 232k for a rookie. Thoughts?

    • Or possibly the old double downgrade (Adams > DBJ, Menadue > Blakely/Smith) to have money for some upgrades next week??

  • Is it too late to bring in Byrne-Jones and Wagner now?
    Would it be better to trade in Tucker and Petracca instead?

  • Who does everyone think i need to offload this week:
    1. Menadue
    2. C. Ellis

    Honestly can’t decide who to get rid of they are both as bad as each other!!

    My other trade is suckling out btw!!
    Thanks Lads!!!

  • Vince or Kelly???

    Thoughts appreciated