Roy’s Trade Talk – Round 4

I am getting a lot of questions about rookies this week, mainly regarding whether it is too early to cull a youngster like Callum Mills (MID, $253,000), or who to take between Ruggles and Byrne. I am far from a rookie expert, in fact, I am a contender for Australia’s worst coach when it comes to picking which youngsters to play on the ground… but I’m on point in regard to trading them.

In an ideal world we hold Mills. He is a young star, in the Swan best 22 and far from fattening to his full potential. Also in his favour is the fact he will likely gain DPP in round 6. However, in the world of two trades per week, I think it is ok to trade him early if there is a great downgrade coming through, or the trade helps you reach a star.

Cash Cows

Tom Ruggles (DEF, $148,000) was outstanding on debut for the Cats and looks set to hang around for the long haul. The Cats liked having the ball in his hands, taking 9 marks to go with his 17 possessions on his way to an impressive score of 76, causing a 23K price rise. He has a break even of -11 going into this weeks game against the Bombers.

Ciaran Byrne (DEF, $145,000) played his first game of the season on the weekend and was very impressive, collecting 20 possessions and 5 marks against the Suns for a score of 69. As long as he is playing at that standard, his spot will be safe and he is carrying a break even of -7 going into this weeks game against the Dogs.

Roy, which one mate?

I think both are great options, but I will go for Ruggles, he is in the better team with greater stability and has a great draw over the next month.

Under-priced Premos

It can be hard to upgrade to the elite premiums at this time of year, so we need to search for some under priced players who are within reach. After the junior Swan mids killed us in the midfield on the weekend, that is where I am hunting for some bargains to fix the mess.

After being knocked out on 16 in round 2, Mitch Duncan (MID, $425,000) showed no ill effects against the Lions with a game high 123 from 29 touches, 8 marks and 5 tackles. He has dropped 17K due to the KO and has a break-even of 71 leading into this weeks game against the Bombers.

David Zaharakis (MID, $503,000) is off to a flyer in what looks set to be a career year, and the Bombers are defying the odds and scoring at a rate which looks set to support his play. He is averaging 121 over the first three weeks after a season low 112 on the weekend. Despite rising 88K so far this season, he is still great value, as his break-even of 45 suggests.

Tom Scully (MID, $525,000) is living up to the hype at the beginning of his career, which many have justifiably given up on. He is averaging 119 to start the season and dare I say it… it hasn’t looked like a fluke and what is most impressive is that his two most recent games were against quality opposition in the Cats and Swans for scores of 119 and 138. He has a break even of 54 and has games against the Power and Saints coming up and both of those teams give up plenty of points.

Roy, which one mate?

All three are great options, but I will eliminate Scully first, purely because its Scully… Harsh and unjustified based on how good he is looking. I think Zaharakis will average more than Duncan over the remainder of the season but purely for the value, my number on value pick is Duncan, who has the added bonus of a favourable draw over the next month.

Discuss your trade ideas in the comments

@RoyDT


Click here to subscribe on iTunes.

137 Comments

  • question time!

    I have 89K

    option 1 – D.Howe (yes I still have him ) to ruggles – Mills to Duncan
    option 2- D.Howe (yes I still have him ) to ruggles – mills to Rosa

    im currently leaning towards op 2 as with the thought process of trading rosa back to defence in the next month as I think he a worth def option

    or do I go totally left field and focus on getting rid of J.cowan is unlikely to see a game and Gresham ?

    any thoughts would be appreciated

  • gawn or stefan to goldy ?????

    • who are you and why do you have my name hahaha

      out of the two id go gawn because stef has proven himself over the last two seasons and even though maxxy went big last week he had 60+ hitouts which wont happen often this season.

      in saying that ill be keeping that combination for a while have more pressing issues.

  • Is that a new avvy Roy? Fantastic article mate. Currently going Harwood to Byrne or Mills to basement MID and then Brouch to Laird via Lonergan :P

  • Hey guys

    DEF Shaw, Houli, Laird, Weitering, Byrne, Cameron (Ruggles, Harwood)
    MID Mitchell, Lewis, Dangerfield, Adams, Zaharakis, Bcrouch, Mills, Davis (Macaffer, Gore)
    RUCK Martin, Gawn (Currie, Cox)
    FFORWARD Merrett, Martin, Kerridge, Wells, Adams, Menadue (Kommer, Mckenna)

    59k left

    I know that Crouch is injured but i have no clue of who to replace him with. i scored 2052 this week if that helps

  • have brought ruggles off my bench, trading howe > bryne freeing up 299k.
    want to trade out graham but unsure who to? have pick of the litter with 679k free.

    • certainly consider bringing in montagna into forwards (hopefully via DPP) as he will average far more than the next best forwards (maybe besides merrett if that form continues) alos strongly consider Parker in midfield as looks back to his best

  • Not really sure which way to turn, after last weeks efforts I wouldn’t mind offloading Hewitt and Mills:

    Def: Houli, Laird, Simpson, Biggs, Adams, Dea (Tippa, Cameron)

    Mid: Gaz, Danger, Adams, Hunter, M Crouch, Oliver, Mills, Menadue (Davis, Hewitt)

    Ruck: Stef, Gawn

    Fwd: Barlow, Hall, S Gray, Kerridge, Wells, De Goey (McCarthy, McGovern)

    Not really sure I can get at Ruggles without prematurely culling a backline rookie, though that may be the best option.

    Trading Tipa/Cameron to Ruggles leaves me with around $90,000, which leaves me just short of all of the following:

    Barlow – Z Merrett
    Mills – Parish
    Crouch-Zaha

    Any mid bench options to downgrade Hewitt to? I don’t think DPP helps me get rid of him for Ruggles

    • Hewett out, Tippa to fwd, Kerridge to mids and Ruggles in def but still short of cash but could go Crouch to Duncan (if you need more money then get rid of Mills same way)
      Cameron (lowest breakeven in comp) and Tippa are silly trades

  • Will Keays play this week, if so is he worth getting?

    • You can afford to give him a week as his BE will be 45 odd. Definitely worth getting if he manages to hold a spot in the side.

  • I’ve offloaded M.Brown (Ess) for Ruggles.

    Currently have $292,000 in the bank. Both Mills and Hewett are on my side. Keen to keep Mills, so who should I be aiming to trade in for Hewett?

    • zaha, duncan or hunter

      • Cheers thought those names might’ve popped up, already nabbed Zaha, don’t know why I didn’t start with him, glad I got Hall last week.

        Gone with Hunter, had him in and out during pre-season but doggies players are too good to ignore right now.

  • my trade is jordan degoey out jayden short in and daniel howe out jason johaneson in
    good or bad trade

    • where is de goey at the moment on your field and would you play short on the field? Can you look at downgrading howe to ruggles or byrne and upgrade de goey to Duncan?

  • upgrade Lonergan to Duncan with DPP or upgrade Sheridan to Houli? (Not enough cheddar in the bank to do Lonergan to Houli)

    • sheridan to houli imo. Also duncan’s b/e is 71 so he won’t go up much if you can try to get him next week.

      • yeah that’s true. Both should score the same amount of points shouildn’t they? Houli has the lower breakeven.

  • Great Article Roy!!

    Thoughts on this trade guys
    Downgrade/ Upgrade
    Lonergan to Ruggles (wouldnt imagine losing many points by doing this)
    Brad Crouch to Steven/ Parker

    or

    Double downgrade
    Hold Crouch and Lonergan
    Brown to Ruggles
    Mills to Basement Rookie
    And then possible double upgrade next week/ will be in a stronger position in weeks to come. Thinking top one because Steven will be a captain option this week but opinion could easily be swayed

  • Is is too early in the season to give up on M.Crouch scoring ability?

    Am thinking:
    M.Crouch to Duncan
    J.Lonergan to Bartel

    • Crouch hasn’t scored below 80, while Duncan scored under 20 in 3/5 of a game.

      and definitely wouldn’t trade in Bartel. Unfortunately his days as a fantasy legend seem over. Would go someone else instead if upgrading Lonergan.

  • Option 1:
    Harwood -> Ruggles
    P Cripps -> Scully
    15k left

    Option 2:
    Harwood -> Ruggles
    P Cripps -> Duncan
    115k left

    Thoughts?
    Option 1 could also be hunter instead of Scully, I’m just really tempted to bring in Scully and another week or two will be too late….

  • Which Option?

    1. wilson -> adams & lonergan -> scully
    2. wilson -> adams & gawn -> goldstein

  • Bit stuck on what to do for 2nd trade, Already going Hewett-Ruggles

    1)J Lonergan – Houli
    2)M Crouch – Steven
    3)Gawn – Goldy
    4)M Crouch – Merrett

    Leaning towards goldstein but not sure if it is really worth the trade or not

  • Advice regarding Lonergan;

    Hold him till round 6 when DPP comes in and you can upgrade him easy to a shiny new DPP player. He shouldn’t lose any value till then.

  • Martin to Goldy
    Or
    Lonergan to JJ??

  • What do i do!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Def: Shaw, Laird, Houli, Marcus Adams, Clay cameron, Weitering (Tippa, Byrne)
    Mid: Steven, TMitchell, Danger, Hannebery, Parker, Ablett, Hunter, Mills (Hewett Jayden Short)
    Ruck: (Martin, Gawn)
    Forward: Merrett, DMartin, Hall, Sam Gray Kerridge, Wells, (Menadue, Kommer)

    10K left with one trade left

  • I have a few players I’d like to off load asap. Mills, hewett, lobb, b crouch.

    Unsure whether to go
    b crouch > ruggles through DPP
    Lobb > Blicavs (+100K)/goldy (+30K)

    Or mills > ruggles via DPP
    B crouch > gaff/zaha/Ablett
    Or B crouch > Duncan +100K

    All and any advice welcome

  • Doing B.Crouch>Zaha
    Nichols> Goldy

    forced to hold: Mills, Hewett, Harwood, Lonergan for another week.. *sigh*

  • Thoughts on these trades? Cheers

    Mills > Ruggles (via Wells and Tippa DPP)
    and
    Hewett > Long

    Leaving 236k for massive upgrade next week..

  • Thoughts on my team guys ??
    DEF:Shaw,houli,sheridan,lonergan,dea,
    hartley (cameron,byrne)
    MID:Ablett,titch,t.adams,dangerfield,
    steven,menadue,hewett,mills (caff,davis)
    RUC:Nicnat,martin (cox,currie)
    FWD:Wells,barlow,jjk,hall,kerridge,
    M.adams (mccarthy,c.ellis)
    70k in the bank, obvious outs woukd be
    Caff,hewett,possibly lonergan/cameron ?
    Any thoughts on possible trade options

  • thoughts on the trades i have done?

    Lonergan –> ruggles

    Hewett –> Long (if he is named)

    This leaves 321k in the bank and i am very keen to bring in Steven or titch next week…

    DEF- Shaw, Laird, JJ, weitering, dea, adams (ruggles, byrne)

    MID- Ablett, Hanners, Jelwood, Adams, Kerridge, Benken, mills, davis (Menadue, Long)

    RUC- Stef, Gawn (currie, A.Smith)

    FWD- Barlow, hall, gray, Zerrett, wells, Tippaa (Mcgovern, Mccarthy

  • Any trade options please?

    DEF: Shaw,smith,sheridan,howe,dea,tippa (cameron,cowan)

    MID: Hannebery,wines,selwood,hunter,viney,liberatore,de goey,mill (dunkley,davis)

    RUCK: Martin,smith (frost,curry)

    FWD: Martin,hall,barlow,kerridge,wells,kennedy (menadue,mccarthy)

    Thinking either howe or sheridan to adams.
    If I go sheridan to adams, then viney or libba to scully

    Thoughts?

  • Getting rid of Salem. Who should I go for Weitering, Dea or Cameron?

  • great article roy, if both hewitt and mills are named who is the best to trade out?

  • whats up with Rory, is more interested with the channel 7 footy show, is he a must trade

  • Harwood > Ruggles
    Hewett > Zaharakis
    I downgraded Crouch to Papley via DPP with Menadue after round 1 so have a big wad of cash I need to get on the field. I still have $74k in the bank after these trades.
    I guess my big question is whether Z-kis is likely to be a top 10 mid this year?

  • Liba to Merret or Montagna??