Lampe’s Price Watch – Grand Final

This week looks like bringing the most carnage of all year…in the most important round! Fantasy guns such as Swan, Hodge, Mundy, and Sandilands are already out, and we can expect a whole lot more to be rested before we actually get to this weeks matches.

Here is a look at some of the best replacements in each line of the ground.

Defenders:

Buy:

Matthew Boyd ($533,000): Boyd is my pick of the defenders this week. This is a much easier call to make considering Hodge and Mundy are out, while Picken has been slightly down of late, possibly due to his back complaint (I’m still expecting him to be good against the Lions though). Boyd has played in a new role across half back this season, but it has been much of the same in terms of dominant fantasy numbers. He has averaged 104.4 points per game and has topped the ton in 11 of 18 matches. He faces Brisbane this week, a team he had 91 on in his only encounter over the past two seasons, but I am predicting him to go 100+ this round.

Due to his consistency and ability to pump out a massive score, Boyd is my number one option from the defenders this week. He was rested only one match ago, so he should be able to get onto the park this weekend.

Jarrad McVeigh ($512,000): I’ve mentioned this guy quite a bite lately, but grand final week is no time to mess about. McVeigh has finished the year strongly, scoring three big hundreds in his last five matches, lifting his average to 105.2 over this period. He faces Gold Coast this week, and like many of his team mates dominated them earlier in the year, posting 131 himself. McVeigh also had 92 and 124 in his two encounters against the Suns prior to that, and he is one of the most backable defenders this week.

McVeigh is number two on my list of backmen to bring in this round. Lets hope he’s a senior player that faces up on Saturday, because he should be very good if he does so.

50/50:

Daniel Cross ($414,000): Perhaps it’s a bit sentimental, but Cross could be a good option given his price and opposition, in what will be his final AFL match. He has been the ultimate warrior over a 14 year and 249 game career, averaging over 90 for eight straight seasons between 2005 to 2012 (and at least 84 in the three since). Cross posted a season high 124 against Freo last week, and although his form had been suspect before that scoring only 63, 64, 64 and 75 in the previous month, he will certainly leave nothing on the park in his final appearance against the Giants.

I definitely wouldn’t pick him ahead of the likes of Boyd, McVeigh or Shaw, but I have a gut feeling Cross will bow out in style. If you don’t have the money for one of the big guns, than Cross could be a cheaper option that allows you to upgrade elsewhere.


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Midfielders:

Buy:

Jack Macrae ($541,000): Macrae is right near the top of all the candidtates to bring in this week. He had 116 last weekend, and although it was his first hundred for three weeks, he had an incredible run of form prior to that. He posted eight straight hundreds between rounds 10 to 18, including 120 against the Lions who he faces this week. I’m expecting something big from the young bulldog star, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he went 120+.

In an added bonus, Bob Murphy came out during the week saying that he couldn’t imagine too many changes to their side (implying they may buck the trend and not rest players), as such Macrae SHOULD avoid the carnage of this week.

Josh Kennedy ($587,000): Kennedy has been one of the top fantasy players in the second half of 2015. He has scored eight hundreds in his ten matches since the bye, incredibly half of which have been 120+. Added to this, he has three massive hundreds on the trot (120, 127 and 130) and faces the depleted Suns in a mouth watering grand final encounter. Do be aware however, that Kennedy has a surprisingly average history against what seems like a very friendly opponent. He only had 60 on them earlier this year, but did post 103 and 91 before that. Surely he will continue his good form and be better than those three scores.

Given his grand final opponent and his incredible run of form, Kennedy looks like a terrific option this week. I am tipping both him and Hannebery to go big (I’m actually very torn between which of the two I think will be better, but Kennedy is the slightly more consistent of the pair).

50/50:

Levi Greenwood ($460,000): It would be a massive risk in such an important week, but if you are strapped for cash Greenwood could be an under-priced player to consider. Levi has actually been in good form recently, scoring 107, 118, 30, 93 and 101 in his last five matches. His score of 30 was also sub affected, donning the red vest. Greenwood has history as a solid fantasy prospect, having averaged 101.7 last year, and was widely tipped to back that up again before injury curtailed his season. He faces the Bombers this weekend, having notched 133 and 109 in his last two meetings against them (albeit in a different guernsey and a somewhat different role).

I wouldn’t do it unless you need to save money in order to upgrade elsewhere, but you could do a lot worse than bringing Greenwood into your side.

Rucks:

Here is who I believe will be the top three scorers in the rucks this week (I’d put Goldy at number two if he’s named).

Buy:

1) Stefan Martin ($636,000): This guy has been one of the in form players of the competition, let alone just the rucks. He now has five consecutive hundreds (four of them 120+) and only one score under 90 for the year (in round one). Expect massive things if he plays against an under-sized Bulldogs ruck division this weekend, who he should absolutely monster.

2) Sam Jacobs ($504,000): Jacobs has had another fantastic year, averaging just a shade under 97 points per game. He had 108 on the Cats last year, and expect both him and Blicavs to win a lot of the pill around the ground.

3) Mark Blicavs ($516,000): The ex-steeplechaser has probably been the biggest sensation of the year. I must admit that I didn’t think he was capable of producing what he has, but I am happily surprised. Blicavs has averaged 99 points per game and is above that in both his three (103.3) and five (100.4) round averages. Jacobs should beat him in the battle of the rucks, but both are sensational around the ground for their size.

50/50:

Brodie Grundy ($494,000): It’s probably a bit harsh putting Grundy as a 50/50, and I am expecting him to score very well this week. He faces the Bombers whose lone ruckmen is now Shaun McKernan, and the Pies big man should give him a tuning up if he plays to his ability. Grundy has been in good form lately scoring 122, 95, 94 and 112 in his last four matches, and is another player having a break-out season. If you can’t afford Martin and are looking for a slightly cheaper option for Sandilands, than Grundy could be your man.

I would personally take the previous three players before him, but Grundy should be good this weekend.

Forwards:

Buy:

Tom Mitchell ($529,000): Mitchell is my pick of the forwards this week and is the ultimate replacement for Swan. He has shown the full extent of his abilities since being given the chance and cost me my preliminary final, after I traded him the week before and failed in my attempts to get him back. He has finished the year in incredible form, scoring 142, 138, 89 and 132 in his last four matches, and should be another Swan who belts the Suns this weekend. Mitchell had 131 on them earlier this year and loves cutting loose against the poorer sides.

Mitchell could be a future pig, and I think he will be near the top of the fantasy tree next season. Given that he missed only two weeks ago, he should be one player that avoids the carnage of this week.

Taylor Adams ($535,000): The number two target in the forwards this week. Adams has had a break-out fantasy season averaging 99.7 points per game, over 29 points higher than last year. His second half of the season has been up there with any player in the comp, posting phenomenal numbers of 135, 102, 112, 41, 113, 139, 95, 126 and 146 since his bye. That one poor score of 41 was also the week he received the red vest. Adams faces Essendon this weekend, a team he had 127 on earlier this year (the only team he managed a hundred against in the first ten rounds) and should be fantastic once again.

With Swan out, Adams may spend even more time in the guts. I’d go with Pendlebury and pick the young Pie this weekend!

Around The Grounds:

Lampshades Lads scored 2233 in round 22, resulting in me gaining 10 places to 1818th overall. Unfortunately, not being able to bring Mitchell back into my team cost my dearly, and I went down in both of my leagues. In regards to my trades for this week, I am looking at trading Mundy to McVeigh and Swan to Mitchell.

Feel free to post any questions or queries in the comments below, and I will get back to you there. Alternatively you can catch me on Twitter @David_Lampe1

Good luck to those of you in Grand Finals this week, hopefully you can claim your league and bragging rights over your mates. To everyone else, it’s about pride but try and finish the year strongly and reach the highest ranking you possibly can.

45 Comments

  • Just saying again, thanks so much for all the help this year mate, as well as being one of the best articles on the site! Keen for next year’s reads!

    • No worries Port! I’m happy to give my help whenever I can. Hopefully my advice has been more good than bad.

  • Great article again! Am considering bringing Wingard in this week vs Freo as a cheaper option. Smashes them usually, let alone the fact Freo are sending their B team

    • Thanks Jordan. I really like the Wingard pick mate. He has 104, 89, 106 and 100 against them over the last two years. Good numbers. I would still say it’s more high risk than getting a Mitchell or Adams (who I think will both score higher), but he is a nice POD if that’s what you’re looking for, and he really should belt Freo’s twos.

  • Took the risk last week with Greenwood and was handsomely rewarded with 107 and with Swanie out this week I reckon he will ton up again. Issues this week Swan & Mundy and possibility Goldy. In 9 out of 11 league Grand Finals and looking the goods in 6/7 leagues lots of teams have Swan, Mundy, Sandilands plus Goldy & Neale (Im betting they both get a rest as well).

    My trades will be Swan > Gunston because I reckon he will go massive vs Carlton.
    If Goldy gets a rest (Already have Martin) will go Blicavs and will take the risk of playing Dick for Mundy unfortunately no DPP plus I reckon he will score higher than Holmes. If Goldy plays trade Mundy > Shaw or Cross

    • Thanks Lampe for all your help and advice during the year.

    • No worries Chatta, happy to help mate. Nice one with the Greenwood call, it took serious balls but it looks like it might pay off for you mate.

      A lot of us have those issues unfortunately, although Neale is looking pretty certain to play, which isn’t good for you in this circumstance. Much like I said to Jordan, but with a different player, Gunston could really pay dividends this week. He had a career high 161 on the Blues earlier this year, and the Hawks should really give them a touch up even if they field a second string side. It’s a high risk-high reward fixture trade. I would however note, that it’s higher risk than getting a Mitchell or Adams imo, but if it’s your gut feel go with it mate, it could pay off for you.

      Goldy is looking pretty certain to be rested, so I like the Blica pick. I’m not really expecting a lot out of Dick, but at least the ball should be down his end of the ground a fair bit, and if he can scrap to 50 or 60 you would probably take that.

  • Boyd is out…

    • Very surprised Boyd is out. I was quite sure he would have played given he had the week off just one match ago…but at least when know on Thursday and he’s not a late withdrawal on Saturday!

      • Yeah you’re right, better to know now.
        Now I have to deal with Swan, mundy and Boyd urgh.

        • Yep, better to know now but it still sucks mate. Not ideal at all, but just get the most points you can and hopefully your opponent has at least similar issues to make it a fair game.

  • I have Boyd, Goldy and Swan.

    Who should I trade out of Swan and Boyd as Goldy will become Martin,

    I have Reid for Cover in forward line and Dick in the Back Line.

    My opponent has adams. So i was thinking Robbinson in the forward line, but who do you think I should bring in and Should i take the cover in Defence or The Forward line.

  • IM COPPING A DONUT IN THE GF. BOYD, HIBBERD AND MUNDY ALL OUT. ADD TO THAT SWAN AND GOLDY.

    • Sorry to hear that mate. There’s always massive carnage this time of year (and a lot of it comes down to luck), but it does suck. Just do your best and get the maximum amount of points you can. You never know, things may just go your way on the weekend.

  • Hey Aaron. They way I would do it is to add up the combination of points you can get from each of the two sets of players and pick the highest one.

    I would predict Reid to get about 65 and someone like McVeigh to go about 100. So 165. I would predict Dick to get about 50 and someone like Robinson to get about 105 (I think Adams or Mitchell will get a bit more but that’s only my gut feel). So that’s something like 155. Based on that I would go with the Reid and McVeigh-type option, but you’re predictions of their scores may be different to mine. Go with you’re gut feel on what the higher combination will be mate, it’s often right.

    • The issue here is this is my defence and forward line

      Defence
      Boyd, Picken, McVeigh Enright, Laird, Gilbert

      Forward Line
      Swan, Martin, Knight, Mitchell, Lambert, Dahlhaus

      After trading Martin in, Im left with 519K Trading Boyd in Defence or I’m left with 599K if I go with the swan option.

      I like the Adams option but my opponent has him so I want a pod

      My GF opponent has Boyd, Mundy, Goldy and Swan.

      • Who are your rookies Aaron?, coz I think that plays a big part. I would go with whichever combination of forward/defender rookie and forward/defender premium you are predicting to score the most. I also like the Adams pick but a good POD could be someone like Goddard.

        • He also has Goddard, I’m thinking Gray or Wingard, Playing port Freo with half a side do you expect these guys to go huge?

          Rookie in the forward line is Reid and Dick in Defence.

  • Hey guys, i have 4 outs: Boyd, Mundy, Swan and Goldy…. which two should i trade and to who?? Thanks…

    DEF: Mundy, Boyd, Mcveigh, Enright, Smith, Malceski (Marsh, Flynn)

    MID: Rocky, Pendles, Lewis, Selwood, Heppell, Sloane, Cripps, Lambert (Atkins, Prudden)

    RUC: Goldy, Jacobs (Nankervis, King)

    FWD: Swan, Martin, Goddard, Titchell, Gray, Bartel (Knight, Byrne)

    14k in the bank…

    • Hey Spagbol,I personally like Mundy to Shaw and Goldy to Martin. Knight is probably your best rookie so it could be a good idea to play him.

  • Managed to have only 2 outs, Boyd and Hibberd. Trade those, and I have a full team+cover on every line (except rucks). Not bad, but it highlights how silly I was to go without Mundy, Swan, Goldy etc. all year.

    • Turned out very well for this round mate but it probably wasn’t the wisest decision. Especially with Swan, as the other two were slightly harder to predict being so good. Live and learn though mate.

  • Guys, I’ve got Goldy Swan and Hibberd out

    Please help with my trades – money not an issue

    a) trade Goldy/Swan to Martin/Adams and play Tarrant for Hibb
    b) trade Swan/Hibberd to Adams/Hodge and play Downie for Goldy
    c) trade Hibberd/Goldy to Adams/Hodge and play Menzel for Swan

    or any other replacements to my proposed names….

    My bench is JKolo/Tarrant, Downie and Atkins/Menzel

  • Hey crisis, Hodge is still suspended mate so definitely go with Martin and Adams. Regardless, it’s hard to beat that combination mate.

    • Thanks mate. I would have checked but appreciate the reminder on Hodge :)

      Shame I’ll leave $180k left in the bank

  • Okay so the drama’s continue with all the outs this week…
    Here are my options:

    1) Swan – Titch & Mundy – Picken + field A.Browne for Boyd
    2) Mundy – Picken & Boyd – Laird + field Fantasia for Swan

    If i go option 1, then i risk fielding Browne.
    If i go option 2, then i potentially will miss out on a big score from T.Mitchell.

    All thoughts appreciated :)

  • Thanks Lampe for your efforts and informative posts.

    Team selections this week probably more kinder to me than most. 3 out, Boyd, Goldstein and Swanny. I selected Boyd over McVeigh last week, thought the latter would be rested this week. Plan on fielding Hamling to cover Boyd and trade Goldstein & Swanny to Martin/Adams. Have Tom Mitchell whom I think is a No.1 priority trade in for either the mids or forwards.

    In addition to the team outs, I believe trading in strategy should also focus on whom maybe substituted out if games seem won or lost, pending no forced subs are required. To name a few likely candidates Picken, Deledio, McVeigh

  • Ebert or Macrae this week?

  • This looks like Milansta’s predictions from a few days ago.

    I distinctly remember predicting Boyd out with ‘old man’ injuries. Here is The General on queue (I bet 1/2 you moron’s didn’t know how to spell that). Two omissions in 3 games, there is a good reason Boyd is on the ‘never again’ list for Milansta. Heath Shaw is on there too; I’m baffled he didn’t molest some old lady to get suspending this year.

    Ebert should be a much better fantasy player (relatively) next year. Gut runner pupil of Ben Cousins. Those are the players you want with no substitute and reduced interchanges.

    That being said @JC obviously Macrae duh.

    • You’re a fuckwit.

      …enjoy your oh so super top 5000 ranking. Clown.

      • Lol your ‘TheTrades’ team is only ranked 9677…

        This means my decisions are twice as good as the advice dispensed by this site.

        Relax Warnie!

      • Warnie raging because he puffed his chest at me a few days ago when I said Boyd was gonna be rested again.

        I also predicted Mundy being rested at some stage during the finals weeks ago.

        Now Warnie is salty because Milansta was right. :(

    • LOL @ “on queue”…

      • Maybe he meant he is lining up? In that case it should have be ‘in queue’? Oh man. Haha. What a ‘moron’.

        • Warnie last week: Something to the effect of:

          “You realize that Boyd has just had a rest?”

          Do you realize that I actually watch games of football and remember what has happened over the last few seasons. This is why you dont get Sam Mitchell at the end of a season because he always goes missing with a cold.

          This is why Boyd is on the never again list because he is an old man.

          Warnie, I’m gonna point out all the times you use your instead of you’re, and ‘of’ instead of ‘off’, and call you a moron every time.

          Do you teach public school or what.

  • Hey Lampe, Last trade, stuck on who to get in/play..

    1. Hannebery (play Dick)
    2. Shaw (play Atkins/Dumont)

    I would go 1, but I think the midfield rookies will score much better than Dick..

    Thanks again mate,

  • Great feedback this year Lampe. Cheers.

    Which option is the best out of this bad bunch?

    Hannebery + Downie
    Pendles + Downie
    Danger + Downie
    Adams + Downie

    Stefan Martin + Reid
    Stefan Martin + Atkins
    Stefan Martin + Knight

    My current MIDS are Rockliff, Lewis, Sidebottom, JPK, Sloane, Prdiddis, Selwood.
    So I can bring in any other mid for combo with Downie.

  • Already trading goldy to Martin

    Please pick one for my second trade:

    A) trade mcveigh to picken which means Menzel starts for Swan
    B) trade Swan to Adams which means JKolo starts for McVeigh

    Cheers