Roy’s Trade Talk – Semi Finals

Obviously not everyone got the memo that it was finals time! Michael Barlow (MID, $465,000)… what the bloody hell was that? One of the biggest finals chokes of all time, that’s what it was. How about the bad luck, with the likes of Luke Parker (MID, $478,000) going down?! I have both of these guys and my twitter feed has been filled with questions of what to do with at least one of these guys, so that will be my primary focus.

Ok, these two spuds have dropped dramatically in price since the start of the year so it is certainly slim pickings for a straight swap but I have found some food for thought.

Straight swaps/downgrades:

Rory Sloane (MID, $465,000) has had an injury interrupted season but he finally looks to be back on track. He has dropped 127K since the start of the season, but things are on the way back up with a break-even of just 58 on the back of his 138 against the Bombers. This week he plays the Lions in Adelaide and he had a great history against them with 160 last year and 68 in just over two quarters in round 13 this year before going down with an injury.

It would take a DPP swing but I am going to talk about Aaron Hall (FWD, $423,000) again, regardless of the backlash. He is in amazing form since hi move to the midfield where he has become the Suns most prominent ball winner. Last week he had 114 despite playing a tough game in Melbourne against the Tigers where he racked up 29 touches and a goal. That gives him a three game average of 112 and a break-even of just 21 leading into a home game against the Bombers who are giving up points galore.

Throw a bit of cash on them

Tom Mitchell (FWD/MID, $496,000) is a superstar, and only comes at such a bargain price due to Horse Longmire derailing his year with a combination of vests and tagging roles. Last week he was finally freed up which resulted in a best on ground performance in which he scored an impressive 138. He had a vital 41 possessions and led the Swans to victory and keeping this in mind, along with Parker being out… It is surely safe to assumes the vests will be a thing of the past. SURELY!

If you are in a must win game, Dyson Heppell (MID, $506,000) looks set to provide an instant reward against the Suns. He is coming off a great score of 128 last week and the Suns have been providing a frenzy of points to opposition teams. He provides great value after dropping 100K since the start of the year despite averaging 103 for the season and his break-even of 80 reinforces his value.

Unique option

Mitch Robinson (FWD/MID, $547,000) is in career best form and his Fantasy numbers reflect that with a five round average of 121 and a three round average of 133. He has not dropped infer 114 in his last four games and is coming off a whopping 166 on the weekend to give him a break-even of just 40 leading into this week’s match against the Crows.

Top 5 Premo Mids for the run home-

(Excluding MID/DEF because all good DEF should be sitting back there)

Tom Rockliff (MID, $556,000)
Dane Swan (MID, $619,000)
Dan Hannebery (MID, $594,000)
Brent Stanton (MID, $604,000)
Tom Mitchell (FWD/MID, $496,000)
Patrick Dangerfield (MID, $590,000)
Scott Pendlebury (MID, $586,000)
Mitch Robinson (FWD/MID, $547,000)
Leigh Montagna (MID, $586,000)
Dustin Martin (MID, $549,000)

Sorry boys: Steven, Armo, Adams, Lewis etc.


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Twitter Time:

I like it, Sloane is great value and Hibbo should rip up this week.

Like clockwork.

Tom Mitchell will have a massive finish!

Griffen and Sloane

Great numbers! I just don’t trust him for some reason.

Fix up a bench spot and make some cash

All the best guys,

@RoyDT

Ps. To those people that had a sook about the players I mentioned last week, have a quick look at how Gilbert, Hall, Hunter and Hill performed. (Yes, Higgo sucked but that was after he was injured while leading disposals early in the first).

50 Comments

  • Hold or fold on Pops Kelly? If trading, is Griffen a better option than Gilbert for D8?

    With the cash from Gilbert, I could turn Parker into Fyfe but Sloane is mighty tempting.

    Spewing I traded out Titch (to Bartel) after his vest game in the West.

    • Im in same boat with Kelly. Looking at Gilbert if Kelly doesn’t get up. But I really want to trade Yeo out first

  • Barlow > Sloane and Rampe > McVeigh. Or Rampe > Gilbet and barlow > Anyone under 580k?

  • Yeo > Houli & Ziebell to Sloane $60k ish in bank

    or

    Yeo > Boyd and Ziebell to Sloane Exactly $0 in bank

    Extra cash could be important as i have swung lambert to fwd 6 for one last money grab, if I go the Boyd Option i need bartel to miss his BE this week, the Houli option give me a bunch more freedom for Fwd 6 next week

    Is griffen worth a look? Will play in guts more now you’d assume.

    Could go

    Yeo > Griffen Ziebell to Sloane

    • I am looking at the same trades to, Gibson – Houli and Parker – Sloane to save cash for next week. Is Houli risky thought seems to be shredding?

      • yeah that’s my concern but 3 round and 5 round average is better than Boyd..

        I’ve had in SC most of the year he’s been solid.

        • his scores have been solid, vs collingwood this week he should do well. Shouldnt get rested like Boyd / Hodge / Mundy either. Could be worth the punt

  • You good sir have sold me on Hall. I was going to use my week off to field Atkins and use all my cash on upgrading Yeo with a rookie downgrade, but Hall gives me enough and he should be easy to upgrade next week after making a healthy profit.

    • Actually, screw it, may get some opinions. Firstly, I have the week off, and my rank is mid 500s so isn’t worth focussing on. Basically trade 1 is going to be Yeo to Picken since I don’t like any other defenders as much, this requires me to find 38k with my second trade. My second trade has three options dealing with the Parker+Picken Money issue:

      1) Hold Parker and field Atkins, Downgrade Nankervis to a 120k ruck, bank 50k+ for next week which should let me have about 600k to use on a Parker upgrade next week. Positives are I get an uber premo mid next week and Picken, negatives are low score for overall rank, and if I cop another injury somewhere I could be stuck with Atkins on field.

      2) Parker for Hall with 17k, rookie downgrade and upgrade Hall to mid next week. Positives: Better score this week for overall rank, If I cop another injury I already have Parker out of the way and Hall should cash in the next two weeks so I shouldn’t get stuck with rookies on field ever. Negatives: Will likely only have 550kish for my mid upgrade, so it’s a Fyfe/Armo instead of a Hanners or Pendles, and the fact it’s getting DPPs involved so late in the game could mean I wind up with a midfield spot clogged up by a fwd if injuries occur..

      3) Find some 440k or under mid (Duncan?) instead of Hall. Basically the only upside here is no putting players out of position, no mids match Hall for BE/Promise so I’m already saying no to this.

      I’m going 2) at this stage, anyone have any input?

      • Yeah don’t field Atkins, too risky and Parker has to go anyway so no point copping a shit score to hold him for a week. I like option two as well, but who are your other defenders at the moment?

        • Thanks, nice to have my logic backed up. Hodge, Mundy, Boyd, McVeigh, Yeo, Griffen.

          • Okay yep sounds good, I was going to say grab McVeigh but you’ve already got him so Picken is good :)

  • I have the week off this week so have 2 options with my trades, I’ve had a horror recent run with injury so still have Lambert and Biggs on my field which isn’t too bad, both seemingly good for 80-90:

    Option A:

    This week Parker > Hannebery and O’Brien > Barrett, leaves 261k in the bank to have a tilt at the prelim with Biggs > Fyfe and Higgins/Newnes > Picken (if he’s still looking good). Hopefully with Lambert against Essendon he can put up a 90+ and I can then trade him to Pendles for the final.

    Option B:

    Parker > Sloane and O’Brien > Barrett so for the prelim I can get rid of both and bring in Hannerbery and Fyfe for Biggs and Lambert. Then trade in Picken for the final.

    Basically option A is a plan for the Grand Final and option B is to strengthen for the prelim.

    Surely Fyfe won’t get rested round 23 after missing 2 games recently?

    Help appreciated. I’m also trading in the hope Mundy won’t get rested.

    • Hey Frenchayy… I just read in the local rag here in the west that Fyfe himself has said he is cherry ripe for the remainder of the year and doesn’t want a rest.

  • Titch or Sloane?

  • Dangerfield, Pendles or Stanton and why?

    • Depends if you want consistency or someone with the higher ceiling. Stanton is getting it done

  • Pendles for consistent – Stanton if you wanna go risk reward

  • Parker to sloan
    Want to trade ebert but have 500k whos best option. Hepple. Armitage. Hill? Or someone else?

  • A: Parker -> Hannebery, Ziebell -> Sloane via DPP
    B: Parker -> Hannebery, Ziebell -> Goddard
    C: Parker -> Fyfe, James Kelly -> McVeigh (field Lambert for Ziebell)

    • B: Parker -> Fyfe (not enough for Hannebery)

      • Haha I was going to say B looked amazing. If Kelly is gone for any length of time you’ve got no choice but C right? With that said, betweem the first two, I like Hanners much more than Fyfe given their draw myself too, Sloane is still a bit scary, but has a good draw.

        • Well there’s no reason Kelly won’t play, its just he’s the weakest link on my team right now. In saying that he could easily average 80-90 for the last three games which is fine for a defender.

  • Don’t understand the talk re Griffen… form before the last game was ordinary.

    • Absolutely would not get him in, but he along with my opponent’s Barlow absolutely fluked me a win last week.

  • B: McVeigh, Simpson, Hibberd, Newnes, Mundy, Boyd (Edwards, Fields)
    M: Pendlebury, Swan, JPK, Rockliff, Jelwood, Lewis, Parker, Bartel (Atkins, Lambert)
    R: Martin, Kreuzer (Cox, Holmes)
    F: Martin, Goddard, Gray, Titchell, Dahlhaus, Bontompelli (Freeman, Daniel)

    58k remaining

    I would like to do:
    Parker to Sloane

    However, I’m not sure on my other trade. Do you guys have any recommendations on who I should be looking at moving on? Thanks :)

  • A) Clurey -> Dick, Parker -> 570k mid – who?

    B) Clurey -> Menzel (Marsh DPP) -> 553k mid – who?

    Have; Pendles Lewis Rocky Sidebottom Jelwood Ellis Ebert

    My only backup on bench is Schade for defence so would prefer someone with job security if you can think of a better combo than Marsh/Menzel

  • bigger priority to trade – Yeo or Steele? im thinking yeo as his be is well above 100 and i can turn him into fyfe for now. hoping steele gets a vest free game (or no game at all) to minimise his price drop…?

    cant trade both, as parker is turning into sloane (bringing in sloane for the 3rd time this year!)

  • I really want to double downgrade as Saad and Boston are leaking cash and I still have Brett Goodes sitting there. But all of our intricate plans are going to be destroyed by Lyon and Clarko in the next couple of weeks.

  • Downgrade then,

    Saad(bench)-> McVeigh, B.Smith on bench

    Cripps-> Hannebery, B.Smith D6

    Kreuzer-> Martin,

    McVeigh low BE but could spud. Could also save him for the inevitable Mundy/Hodge sideways trade.

    Cripps will probably get tagged out of the game by Melbourne and Carlton will let it happen.

    Martin garunteed big ton but I have to field Cripps and B.Smith.

  • What are peoples thoughts on Mundy for the remaining season?
    Is he a high risk of being rested vs the Demons or Port Adelaide?
    Trades I am looking at is:
    Parker to Sloane
    Gibson to either Mundy with 7K left, or Bachar Houli with $97K left next week.
    I dont think Houli would get rested
    Thoughts?

  • Hey guys, I won my H2H match last week and now i am into the preliminary finals because i finished top 4.. This means i have a bye this week and i doesnt really matter if my teams doesnt swcore well.. So i could do a double downgrade but i need to trade out parker, steele, malceski…

    DEF: Hodge, Mundy, Boyd, Mcveigh, Malceski, Smith (Marsh, Flynn)

    MID: Pendles, Lewis, Rocky, Selwood, Heppell, Parker, Cripps, Lambert (Prudden, Atkins)

    RUC: Goldy, Jacobs (Nankervis, King)

    FWD: Swan, Martin, Goddard, Bartel, Gray, Steele (Knight, Byrne)

    1k in the bank…

    Any suggestions on trades would be great..
    Thanks :D

  • Thoughts on, Ebert and Parker to Sloane and Deledio ?

    • Sloane last 2 games are away against Eagles and Cats might be lower scores – next game is at home v Lions so solid 1/3 not so hot but.

      Lids – I have a man crush on him although he is not in my team he has Pies Essendon at MCG then Nth at ES – not sure seems from comments below (by me) Heppel would be better I dont have either in my team but can see this is due to affordability for you and guy below so am going with Heppel

      Im no expert am coming 546 so have fair idea but no where near big boys up top

  • James Kelly is on the chopping block for me. What would you guys suggest I do:

    – move him to MID, bring in Sloane, Wallis or Heppell?

    – keep him in DEF, bring in Sam Gilbert, Simpson or Enright?

    • first option would appear to give you more points – not 100% sure how you are doing it though can you clarify

  • heppell has highest overall avg at 103, wallis best last 3 rnd avg 108 v heppels 103 – Sloane is cheapest

    hepplel has suns = nice tigers = not so then pies = nice cause don’t tag

    HEPPEL IF U HAVE CASH IS BEST OPTION

  • Unfortunately I need to play 1 rookie/cheapie on field this week due to multiple injuries and suspensions. In order my preferences are-

    1. R Atkins v Brisbane at home
    2. S Edwards v Gold Coast away
    3. B Reid v Richmond, likely play back with Brown out
    4. R Knight v Brisbane at home
    5. C Daniel v West Coast away

    Not sure who is most likely to earn the green vest, possibly Reid and Edwards less likely, thoughts would be appreciated.

    • If Knights is named for Crows he will either start sub or be subbed. I would go option 1. The Rat is doing well and can play out games

  • I have a week off do I

    A) Keep Parker Trade Barlow > Sloane and cash in a rookie
    B) Trade Parker > Sloane and Barlow > JPK/Pendles
    C) Double downgrade rookies and upgrade Lambert and Parker the following week