Lampe’s Price Watch- Round 15

After a truly tragic and heartbreaking week in the footy world, the other seven games did go ahead as planned. The respectful and touching tributes to Phil Walsh were very well done, and the AFL should be applauded for the way the terrible situation was handled.

Although fantasy seems insignificant, the scores and matches still went on, with a large number of teams doing very well last weekend.

Round 15 is another important round, as we get towards the last month before finals. The players we trade in now will be more and more likely to stay in our teams until the end, therefore it is imperative we choose wisely from here on out.

Here is a look at some of the best and worst options this week.

Defenders:

Buy:

Jack Newnes ($462,000): For those of you that didn’t buy into the preseason hype and start with Newnes, he is worth a sneaky look right now. He is beginning to repay the faith, with two hundreds and a 99 on the trot. Since round five, Newnes has averaged over 87 points per game, very solid numbers from a fantasy defender. With a break-even of just 59, he is set for further price rises if his good form continues.

His fortunes are definitely linked with the team, being a player who has significantly improved as the Saints have gotten better. With matches against GWS, Richmond, Melbourne and Port in the next month, he could be worth a look at D6.

The Bulldog Boys: Boyd ($567,000) and Picken ($552,000): I gave Boyd a mention last week and he didn’t let me down, pumping out a massive 143 points. I was up and about until Goddard’s Sunday shocker! Picken also smashed Carlton on the weekend, finishing with 127. This was his fourth 120+ score in his last nine matches. Massive!

There is every chance both will go huge against Gold Coast again this weekend. Boyd scored two hundreds in two meetings against the Suns last year, while Picken’s numbers are largely irrelevant due to his different role. Both have low break-even’s (85 for Boyd and 87 for Picken) and are unique options, with Boyd coming in with 9.46%, and Picken just 4.52% ownership. Crazy low, for two players who have been as good as they have! The other bonus of these two, is that they are big accumulators of the ball, but just average users of it. As a result, opposition coaches allow them to rack up the numbers with limited attention, while Bontempelli and Dahlhaus cop the tag.

*A small side note* There is a chance that Picken MAY tag Gary Ablett this week. He did a fantastic job on him last year, keeping him to just 24 touches and little influence on the game. Hopefully with a new role and coach, this will be left to another player this time around!

25/75:

Nick Malceski ($356,000): I can’t justify giving him a 50/50, so this is the best I can do right now. Malceski has had an horrendous year since joining the Suns, and has not yet lived up to high expectations. However, he has dropped 165k from his starting price, and should be looked at due to his potential value and form of years gone by. If you look deeper into his scores of the last few weeks, you find that there are more positives then there initially seems. He scored 72 from 23 touches last round, a number that could easily have been much higher with a few extra marks and tackles. In his two games preceding that, he scored 44 and 64, but came on as the sub on both occasions. Again, this significantly lowered his average and price.

I think he will be better in the second half of the year, but the question is by how much and is he worth the risk? He still has a break-even of 83, so another week spent looking at him might be the right way to go.

Midfielders:

Buy:

Scott Pendlebury ($598,000): Mr Reliable. As simple as that. It’s hard to see why he’s not in more than just over 30% of teams. Once again, Pendlebury is in the top five averaging players in the comp, and has been underrated again this year. Perhaps it is because he isn’t renowned with going massive, but scores of 152, 141, 135 and 121 show that he can easily do that on his day. The other attractive thing about Pendlebury, is that he seems to have freshened up over his bye and gotten over the calf niggle that hampered him (relatively) in the first half of the year. As a result, I am predicting him to be even better in the second half of the season.

With a break-even of 90, he could easily be up around 630k in a few weeks time. If you don’t have confidence in picking a captain any given week, put the C on Pendles and guarantee yourself a good score.

Josh Kennedy ($531,000): Definitely one worth considering. Although he reached his basement price last week, he is still down 64k from his starting value. With a break-even of just 60, he will be up above 550k in the near future. Kennedy plays Brisbane this week, a team he scored 116 on in his last attempt, and plays Hawthorn the round after. He loves playing his ex team the Hawks, and it seems like he has a very obvious point to prove every time they meet. He has scores of 102, 100, 101, 139, 108, 93 and 121 against them in his last seven.

He is underpriced and worth a shot at M7 or 8.

50/50:

Tom Rockliff ($485,000): It Feels like we’ve been down this path before right? Some might even say this years been a Rocky Road…

Now that’s out of the way and hopefully never used by anyone ever again, we can get back to fantasy. Virtually none of his issues this year have been his own fault, except for possibly being too courageous for his own good. With many coaches looking to upgrade the final spots in their midfield, Rockliff should be on everyone’s radar. It is just a question of when.

With a break-even of 71 and at such a low price, I’m going to trade him in this week and hope he can get back to his best right away. There is significant risk in picking him straight up, so if you prefer the conservative route, give it at least one week.

Avoid:

Gary Ablett ($576,000): It feels good just to be talking about the GOAT again. He got better as he went along against the Kangas, culminating in a final quarter that was back to his very best. That being said, I’d still be giving Gary one more week. He has a massive break-even (141), which is reachable for him, but unlikely in his second game back from his shoulder injury. Ablett comes up against the Bulldogs this week, a team he scored only 78 on last year (as I said, due to a very tight Picken tag).

If he can stay fit, he will be a must have in one or two weeks. The main reason I’m going Rocky over him this week, is due to his significantly lower price and break-even.

Rucks:

As I’ve said numerous times, I would only go with the top four guys or right down to a cash cow, given the limited spots available in this position.

This week, I’ll quickly rate the top guys in order of who i’d choose from first to last.

  • Goldstein: Most expensive at $588,000, but well worth it. He has a break-even of 71 and a five round average of 126.2, making him the best player in the comp over the last month.
  • Jacobs: 58k cheaper than Goldy and should average 100 for the rest of the year. Has a break-even of 99, but a slightly underwhelming five round average of 93.
  • Blicavs: Rounds out the top three this week at 533k. He has a break-even of 83, and has been in sensational form with a five round average of 103.6
  • Stefan Martin: Suspended for one more week, so wait until then.

50/50:

Matthew Leuenberger ($271,000): The reason you would be trading in Leuenberger is for a quick cash grab, not as a keeper. He has the lowest break-even in the competition (-18) and has some serious coin to make in the next few rounds. With Martin out for another week, there is every chance he could go big again this weekend. When Stefan returns, hopefully he can fare a little better than when they played together previously, but don’t expect much more than a 60 odd average.

If you need cash, grab Leuenberger for a month and run. If things turn out well, he will be up near 400k in a month or so.

*Once again* Kreuzer ($330,000, break-even of 17) and McKernan ($267,000, break-even of -3) both have cash to make. I would rate Mckernan as the better of the two, given his significantly lower price, break-even and that he is the sole ruckmen.

 


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Forwards:

Buy:

Jack Crisp ($513,000): An interesting one, who has flown very much under the radar. He is turning out to be everything Collingwood hoped, when they secured him as part of the Dayne Beams trade. His fantasy form has been exceptional of late, with a three round average of 111.3 and a five round average of 103.4. You will now be paying over 500k for him, which is a big increase from the start of the year, but he hasn’t reached his ceiling yet.

If you are looking to take a punt on a unique forward (2.45%), Crisp could be your man. He is a big risk – big reward type prospect, but he hasn’t put a foot wrong so far.

*Quickly* Nick Riewoldt is again good value at 523k and with a break-even of 68. His five round average is now over 110.

50/50:

Steven Motlop ($453,000): I have probably been a bit harsh on Motlop this year, but for various reasons, I haven’t believed he was a good buy at those specific times. At just over 450k, Motlop is now at a price and a break-even (69) that makes him well worth considering. This is especially true for those shopping around for an underpriced premium. He is coming in with some form, scoring two hundreds in his last three matches.

If he can average 95 for the rest of the year, it more than justifies the selection. Personally, I would give him a miss, but he has the potential to pull it off.

Avoid:

Brendon Goddard ($531,000): I have to put my hand up for this one and apologise. Sorry to anyone who picked him up last week, at least partly due to my advice! He had an absolute stinker and I did not see a performance like that coming. It was actually his worst fantasy score since 2007, only just beating his 17 when he ruptured his ACL in the first quarter in a match against the Swans. As a result, his break-even has ballooned out to a massive 139, and it is hard to bring in any Essendon players given the miserable state they are in right now.

I am still backing him in to be a top six forward, and I think he will strike back. However, avoid for now, and hopefully he will be a bargain at close to 500k in a few weeks’ time.

*A small shout out* to Luke Dahlhaus who can’t be justified once again this week. With scores of 56, 69 and 70 in three of his last four, and a break-even of 132, this is not the time to pick him up. If he can hit form in the coming weeks, he could be massively underpriced nearing 450k.

Round 15 advice: Go with your gut and your team structure, when deciding how much risk you are willing to take with your trades this week. If you have team with a number of risky picks already, it might be best to stick to a Pendlebury type option. If on the other hand, you are looking for something to set yourself apart from the pack, going with a unique player may give you the rankings boost you desire.

Final Thoughts: Lampshade’s Lads managed 2204 in round 14, improving my ranking 56 places to 1502. The vast majority of my team was superb on the weekend, but unfortunately my rookies let me down badly. Scores of 10, 21, 41 and 45 from Schade, McCarthy, Kavanagh and Hamling, further highlighted the need to fully upgrade my team as soon as possible.

If you have any questions or queries I will be more than happy to answer them in the comments below, or if you follow me on Twitter @David_Lampe1  I will answer them there. If I get some interesting questions during the week, or some common themes, I will include them in my article for Round 16.

Good luck this round, hopefully a league win and a jump in the rankings is coming your way.

53 Comments

  • Good read lampe

    Got one question, I’ve lockedin cripps> rocky but can’t decide my second trade

    Either Oxley> smith or nelson> ah chee
    I think if. Don’t get ah chee I will miss out because his be is -13 but surely there will be another cheap mid soon

    Cheers

    • Thanks Josh, I like that first trade, it is a good one. Particularly with Cripps under an injury cloud. I would go Nelson to Ah Chee with the second. You will be adding an additional ‘playing’ player to your squad which can only help, and like you said, he has a low break-even and looks the goods.

  • Good read as always Lampe. Thursday lunchtimes are my favourite.

    Def: Newnes, Edwards, Hodge, Yeo, McVeigh, Mundy (Clurey, Goodes)

    Mid: Pendles, Armitage, Rischitelli, Fyfe, Dangerfield, Lewis, Cripps, Kavanagh (Amon, Dumont)

    Ruc: Goldstein, Kruezer(Holmes, Brooksby)

    Fwd: Bont, Steele, Gray, Martin, McCarthy, Titchell(Cox, Honeychurch)

    How did I not get rid of McCarthy this round and put Honeychurch on the field.. What a joke. Well I have $323K to spend. I’m considering having a donut in defence to get Rocky and Riewoldt for Cripps(who I really don’t want to get rid of, but if it’s a double upgrade I have to consider it) and McCarthy? Leaves me with $49K. Then next week getting in Brodie Smith to cover that donut.

    • Doughnut is interesting… I would have thought upgrading one of Kav/Amon/Dumont would be more important for your score, unless you are just thinking GF?

      What about McCarthy to McKernan and one of those three to Rocky, if you have the $?

    • Thanks mate, really appreciate that. Bad luck with McCarthy, I guess Honeychurch has been a big vest risk so that was always a chance, but it just didn’t pan out as planned. I really like both of those trades this week, I think they are great. Rocky is a good pick up (particularly long term) and with Cripps under an injury cloud it is as good of a week as any to do it. The McCarthy to Riewoldt trade is a beauty. Can’t go wrong with that at all!

  • Thanks Lampe. I like Roo this week, I reckon he is the trade of the week in all posns, though there are a few other tasty ones – Dal Santo looks good too. I just can’t bring Kolo back in after getting rid of him at the start of the year. I have never believed in second chances.

    • No worries yarmo, I think Roo is right up there as well, probably agree with you that he is number one this week. Dal Santo is very cheap, but I wouldn’t be able to bring myself to do it as a pure mid. It is hard with players like Kolo isn’t it? I generally don’t give second chances to players, unless they are absolute guns, either.

  • Great read as always lampe, is there any premiums on their way down and who we should keep out eye on for the upcoming month? (Besides goddard and Dalahus)

    thanks

    • Thanks ChunkyCheese, Ablett is the obvious one with a break-even of 141. Isaac Smith is another who has dropped significant cash lately and still has a break-even of 128. Sidebottom at 512k and a break-even of 117, will be massively underpriced if he can get his act together in the next few weeks.

      • Sidey is looking very appealing, kinda hoping Ablett takes two weeks to bottom out so I can grab them both for nothing.

        • If I had to guess, I would say two weeks until they both reach their basement price.

  • Was counting down the minutes until this came out Lampe, well done and thanks!
    Will hold off on Rocky one more week, as I have other areas to improve..

    I’m getting Hodge, but need to downgrade Krak. Moved up to top 750 in the ranks!

    My options are
    1. Hodge and Steele (Trade Ox instead, Play N.Brown)
    2. Hodge and 213k rook
    3. K.Kolo and Steele

    • Thanks PortPowerr, really appreciate that mate.

      Not the worst idea with Rocky, playing it safe isn’t the worst move, after all his troubles this year. I would go with Hodge for sure, get the absolute best while you can (and he is relatively cheap too!). With your second trade, I would personally get a cheaper rookie over Steele, only because he is now quite expensive at 272k. If you have Krakouer in the Mids, then Ah Chee is probably your best bet. If you have him in the forwards, then one of the Bulldogs rookies is probably best. Have a look at teams tonight and who is named/where, to see who looks the more reliable out of (Redpath, Daniel and Bale).

  • Hey lampe
    Was planning on going krak to Caleb Daniel and then cripps to Rocky but unfortunately Hinkley threw me a curve ball by dropping Coloquhoun. Is it worth fielding Clurey and following through with my previous trades? Otherwhys I will need to pick up a Smith/malsecki for Col
    Cheers

    • Hey Aaron, I think that is definitely worth considering mate. Clurey is back this week and although it is unlikey he will score as well as Smith or Malceski, who knows right now? You can also live without those two in your team. Krakouer to Daniel is a good trade. He is a vest risk, but looked very good and scored well for time on ground last weekend. With a bit of luck he’ll avoid the vest. Cripps to Rocky is a good trade, particularly long term, with Cripps under an injury cloud. I also think it is worth keeping Colquhoun for now, he has scored very well in his matches so far and still has a low break-even. Hopefully he will be back soon.

  • Two options involving a couple mids mentioned here, unfortunately I’ve got Colq and Hamling sitting at D6 and D7 so I need to fix that.

    Hamling -> Smith
    Cripps -> JPK (I’ll get Rocky next week)

    If Colq plays next week I’ll do Saad to McVeigh

    • Hey nk, I like those trades you mentioned in your circumstance mate. Smith is significantly underpriced, and has the potential to average 80+. Cripps to JPK is a good trade, with Cripps under an injury cloud and JPK hopefully continuing on his way up. With a bit of luck, Colq is back next week, and your other trade could be well timed, with McVeigh potentially bottoming out next round.

  • Good read as always. Easily the most relevant section for trading in value players. I have upgrades Cripps to JPK and waiting on Rocky and perhaps Malceski next week. I also have Sidebum in my sights. But I also hear what youa re saying about Crisp and Roo. Too many upgrade options and not enough cash generation options. While on that what do think about Zac Jones in for Saad?

    • Thanks Toasted. I like Cripps to JPK, that is a good trade this week. I also have Sidebottom in my sights, but I can’t bring myself to do it just yet. Getting Rocky over him this week. I don’t mind Zak Jones in for Saad, he is one of the best defender rookies right now. He is always a vest chance and could lose his spot at Sydney, but you never know. Other options around him are Hugh Beasley (who may have more job security playing at Brisbane, but that’s not guaranteed) and Clurey.

      • Thanks for your reply. This is one of the main reasons I love about your section. I agree about Sidey, maybe even in two weeks as you said above. This means that Rocky could be good next week and Sidey/Ablett the week after. Beasley might be a little too expensive over Jones. Worth the risk with Jones. The article in afl.com.au on Jones was encouraging.
        http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-07-08/young-players-must-lead-flag-push-says-swan-jones

        • Thanks mate, I try to make it as engaging as possible. If you want to get them at lowest price and have a look first, one week for Rocky and two for Sidey/Ablett is best imo. Yeah, it comes down to what you can do with that 35k and who you individually rate as the better player. I saw that article as well, and it encouraged me to. Jones is still slightly behind Beasley in my eyes, but that isn’t necessarily correct, as it’s only my gut feel.

  • No donut anymore with clurey on the field.. Thanks Lampe and yarmo, as hard as it is for me to get rid of Cripps because he’s done that much of a job in my mid after all that I copped his seasin he will be sorely missed. lets hope Amon can score a monster tonight to cement a spot in the team so I can grab enough cash to bring in the GOAT in the coming weeks. Only 3-4 away from a full premo team. Happy with that!

    • No worries Stat, happy to help. He will be missed, he is going to be an absolute jet! With a bit of luck Amon won’t be the starting sub (at lest we will know before lockout) and give us all some cash to get Gaz!

  • DEF: Hodge, Boyd, Mundy, Mcveigh, Newnes, Ibbotson ( Hamling, J.Kolo )
    MID: Pendles, Fyfe, Beams, Parker, Treloar, Barlow, Wallis, Cripps ( Dumont, Smith )
    RUCKS: Jacobs, Goldstein ( Cox, Holmes )
    FWDS: Swan, Gray, Dusty, T.Mitchell, Ziebell, McKernan ( Byrne, Lambert )

    Looking at going Hamling > Jones & Cripps > Lewis/Armitage

    Or something else I should look to do first? 59k

    • Very nice looking team Paynton, could be lethal by seasons end. I like those trades this week. Jones is close to the best there is in the defender rookie stakes right now, and Cripps is under an injury cloud. I would personally go Armitage over Lewis right now (just), however go with your gut feel.

  • Hey Lampe, top stuff as always mate!
    Finally getting in Reiwoldt for McCarthy this week.
    Kinda stuck on my last trades, any advise?
    Oxley to – Z Jones as D6, or Steele M7 (DPP Newnes to D4)
    Or Hamling to Z Jones as D7, hold OXley.
    Cheers

    • Thanks Kingzy, appreciate it mate.

      Love the McCarthy to Riewoldt trade, classic downgrade/upgrade to an elite premium. I would personally go with Hamling to Z Jones at D7 and hold Oxley (for now). Although Ox’s break-even is quite high (84) he has proved he can easily reach that. You will also know whether or not he is the sub before tonight’s match, which is very handy. Also, getting rid of a non playing player in Hamling and securing solid cash generation (74k) will help your squad overall.

  • Loved the section on dePendables, have started with him the last 4 years and have not regretted it at all, whenever i don’t feel as though any of my team is going to score huge i slap the C on Pendles because i know he’ll at least get something respectable, crazy to think everyone knows he’s a superstar yet is still so underrated

    • Love the ‘dePendables’ call. Can’t believe I haven’t thought of that before! Same with me mate. Started with him for a number of years, and I do the exact same with the C. What a player he is.

      • Haha thanks, nice article btw, helps me out a lot. Often find myself getting trapped in trading a player in at their max price only to see them drop 100k in the next month, I think bringing in value and under-priced players is a big key to success in this game, so thanks for taking the time to research it and share your findings Lampe.

        • No worries mate, happy to help. I’m a sucker for that as well, but I am doing my best to stick to my own advice and trade in players who are better value for money, and should pump out big scores from a lower price.

    • Agree, and yet you see teams all the time without him!

  • With Colqhoun out, i’m jumping on Lampe at D6!

  • Hey all!

    Players in my removal plan are:
    Back: Tarrant
    Mid: Saad
    Forward: Krak

    What option works best?
    1: Krak > Lambert and Tarrant > B.Smith ($103k left in bank for other upgrades next week)
    2: Saad > Rocky and Krak > Lambert ($50k left in bank)
    3: Saad > JPK and Krak > Lambert (not leaving me any cash in bank)

    Thanks in advance guys!

    • Prsonally I would go oJPK over Rocky this week. Wait and see on what Rocky can actually do hthis week. He might be underdone.

      • I agree that JPK might be better than Rocky this week (we will have to wait and see on that though). But, One of the other reasons i’m getting Rocky this week is my individual team structure. I only have 2 premium mid spots left, and I am going Rocky this week, and Gaz in a few. I think Rocky will be better than JPK long term, and if I don’t get him now, I have serious doubts I will be unable to get both by seasons end.

  • Hey all!

    I need some advice on cheap DEFs / rookies
    Did Saad -> Colq and E-Yolmen -> Rocky

    … now that Colq is dropped this week should I

    a) leave him in cause he’s too good to not come back next week
    b) do Colq -> Clurley
    c) Colq -> Beasley
    d) Colq -> Schade
    e) go f off

    Thanks

    • Hey Pedro, I like the trades but would definitely trade in another defender rookie now that Colq is out. I would rate Beasley number one, due to his extra job security at the Lions. I would then rate Zak Jones second, and Clurey third.

      e doesn’t sound like the worst option, given a lot of this year though:P

  • I would personally go with Saad to Rocky and Krak to Lambert. Rocky will be the best mid long term (if fit) and the extra cash will help. I would go Saad to JPK and Krak to Lambert as my second option, and lastly Krak to Lambert and Tarrant to B smith.

  • Hey Lampe,

    Great read by the way.

    Which of these trades should I do?

    1) Oxley-> Jones and Krakouer-> Armo (or any other mid)

    2) Karkouer-> Steele and Goddard-> Armo (or any other mid)

    • Hey Fumble, I would definitely advise number one mate. Oxley to Jones and Krakouer to Armo. This adds another premium to your team, which is what you are gunning to achieve. While Goddard had an absolute stinker last round, he is still a gun player, and I would back him in to bounce back and be a top six forward for the rest of the year.

  • Already copped the Colquhoun and Krak carnage, with more expected tonight would it be silly to trade Stef out to Reiwoldt and Saad to Boyd by moving McKernan into the rucks. This gives me maximum points this round in a huge league match up, while yeah I lose a top ruckman but it also allows me to gain two top FWDs and DEFs.

    Great work though mate, keep it up

  • Hey Powerlicious, It is definitely a risky manoeuvre but it could pay off, especially with a huge league match this week. Essentially you are still upgrading your team, by gaining one extra premium this week (Saad to Boyd), and sideways trading another. I would say go for it if this is a must win match, but make sure you try and get Stefan back as soon as possible as he is an absolute jet.

    • Cheers for the reply Lampe, really appreciate it. Im not a fan of losing Stef but this trade really does make my team look better especially since McKernan is performing well. Also considering Krak to Ziebell instead of Sadd to Boyd depending on team announcements.

      Im nervous about it but sometimes these trades need to be made I guess haha

  • No worries mate. Yeah wait for teams, do what will give you the most points but also provide long term success.

  • Great write up.
    I’m thinking of doing a ballsy move of Dahlhaus to Leuenberger (originally Birchall to Smith) to generate cash. Then use money next week to upgrade Ox to Hodge, Boyd or Picken and Yolmen to Ablett when he is right. I want to downgrade someone to Colquhoun when he is back in favour, maybe Birchall. Later on when Berger peaks turn him into Goddard or whoever is the best forward. Right move? Or go with original plan?

  • Thoughts on,

    Kavanagh – Rocky and Mcarthy to Riley Knight?

    Or Dahlhaus – Luenberger and Kavanagh to Rocky?

    Dahlhaus is just going to keep dropping in price and i’m not sure what to do about it.

    • Looks like I’m getting in Leuenberger for Dahlhaus too, just for a month or so. I would like Lampe’s opinion on it and anyone else’s to confirm it