Lampe’s Price Watch- Round 14

Round 13 was the best bye round for a lot of teams, with the majority of coaches able to field at least 18 players, a number of whom were premium options.

Round 14, and the return to 22 players, can’t help but bring a smile to my face. This is even though, like much of this year, the carnage has already started before the round has begun (with Sloane, Franklin and Martin all out). However, just look at the bright side of things, and the realistic hope that you may finally be back to a 2000+ score.

With many coaches looking to upgrade the final few spots in their team, the players you choose from this point on, will have a huge impact on how you perform come finals time.

Here is a look at some of the best and worst options this week.

Defenders:

Buy: 

Michael Hibberd ($452,000): Over the last five weeks, Hibberd has returned to the form that made him one of the most reliable fantasy defenders of the last two years. During this period, he has scored two hundreds and has a lowest score of just 83. With a break-even of 69, and still down 54k from his starting price, you will be getting Hibberd under-priced for what he is capable of producing. If things go as planned, Hibberd is a relatively unique option (10.84% ownership), who will produce consistent 85+ scores, while other defenders have a much higher standard deviation between their best and worst matches.

Looks to be one of the few Essendon players who has actually upped his game since the news of WADA’s appeal. Has a good shot at being a top 10 defender from this point onwards.

Kade Kolodjashnij ($467,000): I find it hard to include K-Kolo on the trade-in list, due to his horrendous start to the year (although not entirely his fault, after being used as a shut down player by Rocket Eade). However, his consistent run of good scores can’t be ignored any longer. K-Kolo, has only one score under 85 in his last eight matches, including three hundreds in his last five outings. Although you would be getting him nowhere near as cheap as you could have a few weeks ago, he is still significantly cheaper than the top four to five defenders.

With a break-even of 76, you are getting him under-priced, if his current form continues. With more unreliability in the defenders, he may be worth a punt at D6.

Avoid: 

Luke Hodge ($570,000): It’s hard to be too harsh on Hodge, because he has been an absolute fantasy gun this year. He did however, produce by far his worst fantasy performance of the season last weekend. Unfortunately, his 13 touches and 52 fantasy points, also come during the bye rounds when he was needed most. I am expecting Hodge to bounce back to his normal self against Collingwood this weekend, a team he has scored 103, 114 and 135 against in his last three matches. However, if you are playing the break-even game (and looking for value), give it at least one week to get Hodge, who may be under $550,000 in a few weeks time.

Has been fantastic all year, so you can’t hang him for one off week. Still a fantastic option, but with the second highest break-even in the competition (for non-injured players) there is better value for money right now.

Midfielders:

Buy: 

Jack Macrae ($566,000): Macrae is one, who many hoped would be able to take his game to an even higher fantasy level this season. After a relatively poor start to the year, which included being dropped, he looks like he may be starting to come to the party. Macrae has been in terrific form of late, scoring 117, 120 and 130 in his last three. Although he is not as cheap as he was a month ago, you are still getting him 25k less than his starting price, and with a break-even of 81, he may be close to 600k in the near future.

A unique option (2.24% ownership), who has an incredibly high ceiling, especially for such a young player. Has the potential to be a top eight mid come finals time.

Adam Treloar ($566,000): Another young gun, exactly the same price as Macrae, who people expected big things from this year. Again, he started the year relatively underwhelmingly, but has been in sensational form of late. Treloar has scored five hundreds in his last seven games, with a low of 87 in that time. The similarities between the two continue, with Treloar also having a break-even of 81, and under-priced based on recent form. Being a unique option with just 2.98% ownership, he could help you in league matches and overall rankings alike.

The addition of Ryan Griffen, and the first tag he generally takes, has freed Treloar up even further this year. As long as he can stay clear of the first tag, he should comfortably average 100+ for the rest of the year.

Avoid:

Jordan Lewis ($580,000): After watching Jordan Lewis on AFL 360, the reason for his significantly reduced fantasy numbers may have been revealed. Lewis stated on AFL 360, that he was paying close attention to Dyson Heppell (limiting his fantasy game), while he was actually being tagged himself. This is an horrendous situation, for any player, to produce big fantasy numbers. As a result, Lewis had another score well under 100, and his break-even sits at a massive 160. With a three round average of just 79, Lewis must be avoided for now. If he can eventually get back to the blistering form of last year and early this season, he will be an absolute steal at under 550k.

Avoid for now, due to a combination of factors. Hopefully, he can bounce back to form and a more suitable fantasy role, against Collingwood this week. It is a team he has huge numbers against, in recent times.

Jobe Watson ($472,000): Another Essendon player who has been struggling of late. Watson does deserve some reprieve, given that he missed round 10 with a groin injury, at least somewhat explaining his poor form. That being said, it still doesn’t change the fact Watson has scores of 55, 57 and 64 in three of his last four matches. For those who are looking to find value in an under-priced premium, I would advise to look past Watson for now. With Rockliff likely to be back soon, and Barlow hopefully getting back to his best in the second half of the year, there will be better options under 500k in the next few weeks.

Will be a steal if he can get back to his best, but you can’t trade him in, based on current form. If he is close 450k in a few weeks, and shows some good signs, take a look at him then.

Rucks

Buy:

Todd Goldstein ($557,000): Out of all the ruckmen you can trade Martin to this week, Goldstein would be my number one target. With a break-even of just 63, he is likely to continue increasing in price in the coming weeks. Fortunately, this also means that you should be able to sideways trade him to Martin (when he returns), if things suddenly turn sour. That being said, I don’t expect Goldstein’s form to diminish, in the near future. He has been massive of late, with an average of 124 in his last four matches. He comes across Gold Coast this weekend, a team that allowed both Kreuzer and Wood to score 109 last week, and is by far the AFL’s worst team, on and off the field right now.

A few weeks ago, I rated him as the fourth best ruck-men behind Martin, Jacobs and Mumford. With Mumford down and Goldstein’s amazing form, he may actually be one of the top two. 130+ could be on the cards this weekend.

50/50:

Kreuzer ($297,000) and McKernan ($233,000): Both played easily their best game for the year last weekend, scoring 109 and 97 respectively. They also have plenty of coin to make, with a break-even of 12 for Kreuzer and -8 for McKernan. However, do not expect scores like this from them every week. An average somewhere between 65-75 is more realistic, IMO. Since Kreuzer has to share the ruck duties with Wood (and consequently time on the ball) I believe McKernan is the slightly better fantasy option, as long as he can keep the ruck duties to himself.

Both are solid options, but weeks like last will be more of a one-off thing. Personally, I would set and forget in the rucks, but if you are looking to save money (and get some reliable cash cows into your team) these are two of the better options right now.

Avoid:

Ivan Maric ($462,000): I have to give Maric a mention, because he is in almost 10% of teams. This is more then Martin before his suspension, and close to as many as Jacobs and Blicavs. To be fair, Maric isn’t the worst option going around, and should be better than his three round average of 77. However, with only two on-field spots available to you in the ruck department, and with the top guys significantly better than him (15+ points on average), you should look to either trade in the very best or go right down to a Kreuzer/McKernan type, IMO.

Has a high break-even (106), and has had a relatively poor month. As he is in the most competitive line on your field, you should look to get yourself the very best in this position.

Forwards:

Buy:

Taylor Adams ($499,000): As hard as it is for me to say it, Adams must be looked at this week. With Monster scores of 126 and 146 in his last two, Adams is producing the kind of form many hoped he would, with increased midfield time at Collingwood. Once again, I can’t help but cringe at Adams’ scores over the last two rounds. Unfortunately, I traded Adams out when it was revealed he was missing round 10 with a broken toe. Another trade that has turned out horrendously, and may even trump my Clancee Pearce debacle! With a break-even of 39, Adams has some serious coin to make, if he can go 100+ again this week.

I’m not convinced he can be a top six forward, but he is definitely a chance for the top 10. He has hit career best form in the last month.

Brendon Goddard ($559,000): A fantastic option for any team. Goddard is one who I have wanted in my forward line all year, but haven’t quite been able to secure. He is one of the in-form fantasy players of the competition, scoring seven hundreds in his last nine matches, with a low of 90 over this time. That is a very high basement, for any player, over such a long period. The other bonus of owning Goddard is that he is in just over 26% of teams, meaning he will be a point of difference in many league matches you play from here on out.

In my opinion, Goddard will be the second highest averaging forward behind Swan (Who hopefully every good coach has!) for the rest of the year. At under 560k, and with a break-even of 90, he still holds value for such a good player.

Nick Riewoldt ($499,000): After another strong fantasy performance, albeit failing just under 100, I would again advise coaches to strongly consider  trading in Riewoldt this week. With a break-even of 65, it is highly likely that this is the last time you will see him under 500k for a long period of time. Riewoldt comes up against Essendon this week, a team bereft of form and confidence. Roughead and Gunston managed 140 and 98 on them respectively last week, and it is also a team Nick loves to play, scoring 111, 93 and 135 in his last three against them.

There is every chance he can end up as a top six forward (on averages) by seasons end. At worst, you are getting a unique option, who is under-priced, and is almost certain to be a top 10 player in his position.

Avoid:

Luke Dahlhaus ($516,000): Unfortunately, Dahlhaus’s fantastic start to the year has caught the attention of opposition coaches. After beginning the year with eight hundreds in his first nine games, Dahlhaus has struggled to break through some tight tags in the last few weeks. As a result, he has scored 69 and 70 in two of his last three. With a break-even of 119, it is likely that he will continue getting cheaper in the next few weeks. By that stage, he will have hopefully worked through the extra heat he is copping.

Still a good forward option, but should be avoided right now. Could be an interesting consideration, if he drops under 500k in a couple of weeks time.

Round 14 advice: With the byes over, you should be looking to complete your team as soon as possible. That being said, it is more important then ever, to pick players who you think will be in the top 10 in their respective lines. In order to do this, you will still need some good cash cows, but try to avoid playing as many as possible on your ground as finals approach.

Final Thoughts: Once again, a combination of players not getting up this week (Grundy, Acres) injuries (Sloane), vests (Kavanagh, Sloane and Mitchell) and underperforming premiums (Hodge, Lewis, Heppell and Martin) reduced Lampshade’s Lads to 1437 in round 13. My second poor score in a row.

As a result, I dropped a further 587 places, to 1558 overall.

I am hoping, that a return to 22 players will bring a change of form, and a much needed 2000+ score this week.

Good luck to all you fantasy players out there, and I hope your team fares well this week.

72 Comments

  • Lampe what are your thoughts on Sidebottom? Has a high BE I know but need a mid for Sloane this week. Do you think he can recapture his form and average 105 for the rest of the year or would it be better to grab McRae/ Armitage

    • Hey Cotchy, I would pass on Sidebottom this week, I think there are better mids around him right now. I do believe he can recpature his form and get back to a 100+ average at some point, but the question is when? For me, there is to much risk in picking him right now, while there are other options who should score just as well but are a lot safer. Out of the three you mentioned, I would go: Macrae, Armitage and Sidebottom in that order. I might be being a little harsh having Armtiage second, because he has been sensational this year, but that is just my gut feel right now.

  • Thoughts on Ziebell?

    • He should go nuts this week against the Suns, good pick and well priced

    • Hey Albert, I really like the Ziebell pick. I have had him for a number of rounds now, and he has served me sensationally. I do believe that he is just outside the top six forwards (about eighth),but I think he is a fantastic addition to a forward line. I also agree that against Gold Coast this week, he could be in line for a big 100+ score.

      • So would you bring in Ziebell over Riewold Lampe?

        • I would go with Riewoldt, just. I think he will average slightly higher than Ziebell for the rest of the year. However, there will probably be slightly more ups and downs with Riewoldt’s scores, even as good as he is, because he is a key position player.

    • Nah don’t for for him. Been a great POD for me all year. Want to keep it that way haha. But besides the 7 he got when he KO’d himself, he’s been averaging 99. Ziebz and Neale have been my best 2 picks all year.

      • just as an FYI, NRoo averages 102 if you exclude the KO’d by Bugg 26

  • I think Ziebell is great value at just under 500k. Take away that injury affected 7 and he averages 100 which puts his right in the conversation of the top 6 forwards

  • Lampe thoughts on Kade Simpson? Looks like his scoring has increased since Malthouse departed and is 487k. Is he worth getting in and do you think he should be top 6 by end of the year? Thanks

    • Hey Kingzy, I like Kade Simpson from this point on. He is back close to his best in the last five rounds, and has definitely upped his game. I think he is definitely worth getting, particularly if you already have a few of the big guns and are looking to save a bit of money to upgrade elsewhere. Personally, I would put him as the sixth best defender from this point on, but depending on how things go, he should be anywhere from about fifth to the tenth best defender for the rest of the year.

  • So guess that means Bennell will be out – about sums up my season. So far we have had a possible 26 trades available so I just did a count of my trades – 16 due to injury – 3 due to suspension & now looks like 1 due to drugs. Thats 20 forced trades – no wonder my team is still a long way off completion !!

    • That’s very bad luck Chatta! My year is a similar tale, although probably not quite as bad as yours. It does seem like this year is one of the worst ever in terms of injuries, particularly to DT relevant players.

    • mate it is not as bad as me. every player i trade in gets injured, suspended, dropped or scored under 60. message me if you want to the list

  • Hi Lampe. Your article is one of the best for the week, especially since you have the time to respond with excellent targeted advice. Here is my conundrum for the week.

    My trades so far have been Sloane to Scooter Selwood and Glenn to Steele. This means that I don’t have to field Kav. I also have a mid/fwd player in the midfield.

    However, I hear what you are saying about upgrading to only top 10 players. So should I instead trade Lumumba to Colquhoun to fund Sloane to Macrae, Trelor or maybe even Ellis ( I like all these options due to their POD)? This means I have to field Kav.

    What do you reckon Lampe?

    • Thanks toasted, I appreciate it.

      In general, I would advise you to go with the downgrade and then upgrade to an elite premium option, but this time I will tell you to stick to your original trades of Scotty Selwood and Steele. This is a bit different for a number of reasons. Firstly, although Lumumba hasn’t been great at all, he’s still a mature player so hopefully he will average at least 65+ for the rest of the year. Secondly, Getting rid of a non playing player in Glenn (especially to Steele who looks like a gun) is good for your team and cash production. And thirdly, not fielding Kav, who was the sub last week and may be dropped this week, has a fairly high chance of improving your scoring overall, especially in the long run. So like I said, I would go with the Scooter Selwood and Steele trades, but do look to upgrade Selwood at some point to a super premium midfield option.

      • Thanks Lampe. I really appreciate your advice. What do you reckon about Scooter in general? I am surprised there hasn’t been more chatter about him.

        • A good option for his price, but I wouldn’t personally do it at this stage of the season in my team (however, like I said earlier, circumstances may dictate otherwise). If he can average 85+ (which I think he can) then it probably justifies the trade.

          • True. I still have 63k in the bank. Is there another option for under 475k? Someone mentioned Watson, but not for me Andrew Swallow? Allen Christiansen (Averaged 101 over the last 4)?
            Anybody else?

          • No great option under 475k unfortunately. I would personally avoid Swallow.

            Watson may be in a few weeks but not right now. Joel Selwood if he ever comes good, but again you can’t go there at the moment. If you can go up to 489k, Barlow may come good soon.

            Other then that, Scott Selwood right down near 400k, is probably your best bet.

          • No love for Christiansen?

          • Not for me in the mids mate, but if you like him, he is relatively cheap and has a low break-even. Personally though, I would avoid.

  • Nice Work Lampe !
    I need some advice Franklin has got my head turning. Currently sitting 27th Overall with $173,000 in the bank.

    DEF: Hodge, Mcveigh, Mundy, Newnes, Ibbotson, Hamling (R.Smith, J.Kolo)
    MID: Fyfe, Pendles, Beams, Parker, Treloar, Barlow, Wallis, Cripps (Amon, Dumont)
    RUCKS: Jacobs, Goldstein (Cox, Holmes)
    FWDS: Swan, Gray, Dusty,T.Mitchell, Ziebell, Franklin (Lambert, Byrne)

    Should I trade Franklin > Goddard & Amon > Colquhoun ( via smith dpp and field him)
    franklin > McKernan & Amon > M.Boyd or something else you think I should do ??

    • If this was my team, I would go Amon out for Steele. This will give your team a lot more flexibility with Steele being DPP. Buddy out for Goddard or maybe Nick Roo.

      Well done on the high ranking, and good luck.

  • Hey Lampe, great article again.

    Would you recommend getting McVeigh, Boyd or Picken over one of the picks you mentioned?

    Cheers!

    • Thanks Dylan, appreciate it.

      Yes, if you have the cash get the best option available right now (which is one of those three and Hodge if you are not concerned at all about value/price in the coming weeks). I would rate those three from best to worst as: Boyd, Picken and McVeigh.

  • which option?
    1) Ziebell and a 120k forward (bench cover)
    or
    2) T.Adams and ben reid (for bench cover)

    • Hey Josh, I would go with Ziebell and a 120k forward for bench cover (much preferably, if there is one named this week). I believe Ziebell is the slightly better option long term, and in all honesty, who knows when Ben Reid will be back? It was meant to be this week, but with more bleeding in his calf from a heavy cork last weekend, it may still be weeks.

  • Hey lampe,

    Who out of Gray delidio or Haus would you get in this week? I can afford all three unfortunately I can’t afford Goddard.

    • Lids personally

      Sydney do not concede points, so Gray’s heading down (particularly with his concussion also in there)
      toss up between Deledio and Dahl for mine, but I’m anyone playing Carlton is a no from me

      my ranking: Lids, Dahlhaus, Gray

    • Hey Leighroy, I would go Gray. He has the highest break-even but he is the best player of the lot, imo, and that is who I would suggest if cash is not an issue.

  • Hey lampe who would be best to pick up then adams n.roo or goddard wouldnt mind saving a littlw bit of cash thou… Whats ur thoughts on j.roo easy games coming up last 5 rd ave of 95

    • Hey Shane, I would say Goddard is the best. He is the best player of the lot and will be very valuable come finals time. If you are looking to save cash, I would go Nick Riewoldt over Adams.

      I would stay clear of Jack Riewoldt. He can have some very good matches, but is far too inconsistent to be worthy fantasy player, even with a good draw.

  • Macrae or Adams??

    So torn..

  • Thanks mate. Congratulations on the rank Paynton, that’s awesome!

    Very tough one but i’ll try and break it down a bit.

    If you think about the points you will receive from both options, McKernan should get you about 65 (hopefully) and Boyd 100. As you will be playing Boyd over Hamling in defence (I am assuming) this would give you an extra 50 lets say, so about 115 points. If you play Goddard and lets say he scores the same as Boyd (100), will Colquhoun score 15 more then Hamling? Possibly, let’s say for arguments sake they even out to about the same as each other.

    The next question is what is better for your team in the long run? In terms of coverage on the bench, you are probably safer having Boyd and Hamling in defence (as J Kolo may get dropped), however you are safer having Colquhoun and Dumont on the bench in the middle, so this evens out as well.

    In terms of break-even’s McKernan is the better cash cow compared to Colquhoun and is also slightly cheaper.

    All in all, it’s a really tough and tight choice, and you have to go with your gut feel. Personally, I would probably go McKernan and Boyd, (only just though!) over Goddard and Colquhoun. This is even though the old school mentality is to never downgrade a premium, you are effectively ending up with one either way, just in different lines.

    However, like I said, Go with your own opinion and gut feel mate. It has obviously served you well so far.

    • Yeah totally agree thanks champ. Only thing with boyd is he gets rested so It’s tough. At this stage I have Franklin> Mckernan & Amon > Boyd

      • No worries mate. Yeah Boyd’s durability is always a worry but hopefully he has at least another month or so without a rest, and when it does happen, it is known before lockout.

    • Goddard will end up playing Fwd as the year goes on. Both him and Hird have said this publicly.

  • What does everyone think of these trades?

    Griffin – Mckernan
    C.Ellis – Dick/Knight/Byrne

    • To be honest, I think you can do a little better. Jonathon Griffin (i’m assuming), to McKernan isn’t too bad, it’s solid enough. Try however, to trade Ellis to a rookie who is playing (assuming those three still aren’t named this week).

  • So I have the Stefan, buddy, Sloane issue, like many others.
    I have nankervis and downie on my bench so I’m hoping to get by 2 weeks with them. Hoping for about 40-60 points.
    Does Sloane –> Steele and buddy –> Ziebell sound good which generates enough cash for boyd next week. And probably another 500k player next week, injuries and suspensions pending.

    Love anyone’s thiughts, or suggestions

  • Yep, a few of us are in that predicament k10.

    Nankervis is named for this week, he may struggle to stay in for next week (with Tippet and Buddy back) but you never know.

    I like those trades, particularly if you can get Boyd and another 500k player next week.

  • Best mid 519k or under? Already have Barlow and Wallis. Thinking Boak or JPK?

  • Hey Lampe another great article! Love the effort that you put in and it shows.

    Do you like Colquhoun and Steele/McKernan
    or
    B.Smith and B.Reid? (Play Krak)

    Both have to play on field unfortunately, and which is the better option out of Steele and McKernan?

    • Thanks mate, I appreciate it.

      I’d go Colquhoun and Steele. Hopefully saving you cash for an elite upgrade next week.

      I’d go Steele out of the two, just. McKernan probably has less risk being the sole ruckmen, but Steele looks like a jet and probably has more upside.

  • I’d go JPK at this stage.

  • Awesome Thursday reading… not on the great article, but the comments too! Good stuff!

    (Don’t forget to get an avatar for the site… everyone that is. Hit up http://www.gravatar.com and register your email address that you have signed up on DT Talk with to get your own pretty picture. Makes reading comments heaps better… well, for me anyway!).

  • Hi Boys,

    Who is the better option this week, Steele or McKernan?

    • Hmm I would actually say McKernan?!? Purely because TBC is likely out for the entire season, he has a chance in holding the number one spot… His work around the ball is very good for a ruckman

    • McK with better JS so you’d have to say him for safety.

      Twice the price doe

  • Great read as always Lampe… Lots of effort put into it & it shows!! Love you work :-)

    Had a question:

    RDT

    Have to get rid Sloane and I am considering a few options need some help in deciding who to trade in.

    Get a Mid
    Barlow / Selwood / Watson / Swallow – Are not having the best seasons
    Mundy – Has been very consistent but not getting a lot of love, wonder why?
    OR
    Get a Fwd (DPP)
    Dalhaus – Going well but last couple of weeks has struggled
    Ziebel – Up & Down
    Rewoldt – Consistent but Key Position
    Delidio – currently in good form

    HELP !!

  • PLAYING RDT!!!

    Have 96k in the bank??!!

    What trades should I be doing this week!!

    Newnes, Oxley, saad, lever, hamling,pittard, clurley, Mckenzie

    Pendles, danger, beams, Parker, Lewis, ebert, treloar, bony( Amon, kavanagh, freeman)

    Goldy, Martin( gorringe)

    Swan, Gray, buddy, Martin,Mitchell,Schneider, Fantasia, lamb

  • Telli-Montagna/Armo/Ebert/Pendles or Bont-Ziebell/Nroo

  • Who to bring in for Sloan: Ebert, Armitage or Montagna?

  • Kav on the wing and Lever back w00t!

    Also Maynard looming as one of the only backline downgrades.