Roy’s Trade Talk – Round 13

When researching some players fresh off the bye, I can’t help but continually be drawn to the Saints, who despite not sitting in the top eight, they are providing a number of quality options worth considering.

Ideally this week we will be using a traditional downgrade/upgrade trade, saying goodbye to a couple of round 13 cash cows who have done their job. Personally, my plan this week will be to dump two under-performers in Harry O and Selwood.

As I was saying, I like what the Saints are doing and here are the blokes worth considering

Show Me The Money:

If you are one of the coaches out there who doesn’t mind paying top dollar because ‘you get what you pay for’ then maybe Jack Steven (MID, $631,000) is the man. He has risen a massive 140K on the season to date and carries a 5 game average of 117 into this round. Although he has a high break-even of 128, he scored 142 against the weeks opponents the Dogs in round 6 earlier in the year. Speaking of earlier this year, next week he faces the Bombers who he had a lazy 124 on in round 5. He has a lowest score of 92 this season, yes 92, a score that Joel Selwood could only dream about and he also has a massive ceiling with scores of 133, 138, 142 and 166 so far this year.

Delayed breakout

David Armitage (MID, $595,000) is having a monster season, already increasing by 93K from the start of the season. His improvement has been significant and that has been reflected by his Fantasy numbers which are a ridiculous read. Apart from 2 quiet games in round 1 with 89 and 75 in round 11 where he was held without a mark by Bernie Vince. The beauty of that quiet game is that he dropped by 23K prior to his bye, making him available for under 600K… Not bad for a guy who has a whopping 7 games over 110 including 129, 143 and 144. Over the next two rounds he plays the Dogs and Dons for the second time this year after smashing them both for 144 and 129.

Oldies But Goodies

Nick Riewoldt (FWD, $484,000) has gone unnoticed despite having numbers that rival the games best forwards. He is having a sensational year, with only one score below 87 where he was knocked out. On the flipside, he has had 4 hundreds from his 7 games and is currently on streak of 3 straight tons, giving him an average of 111 in that time. He has a break-even of just 61, reiterating the value he provides.

Leigh Montagna (MID, $571,000) is in vintage form, averaging a massive 122 in his last 3 and 114 over his last 5. His ability to consistently pump out big scores has been outstanding this season, only dropping dropping below 110 on 2 occasions from his five games with 102 and 82 in his first 2 games of the season. Since then, 123, 114, 112 and 140 leave him arguably the form player of the competition. He has a break-even of just 71.

Sloane Ranger

If you are after a bargain this week, Rory Sloane (MID, $483,000) ticks all boxes after an injury interrupted patch of his season causing a price drop of 109K to this point. He has bottomed out in price with a break-even of 95 leading into a game against the Lions where he should have a field day. If he can regain the form of the first three weeks of the season where he scored 112, 117 and 130 he is an absolute bargain.

New DPP

Despite an outstanding season to date, Jarrad McVeigh ($533,000) has dropped 17K since the start of the season and he looks ripe for the picking if you are after a backline boost. He is coming off scores of 131 and 105, leaving him with a break-even of 87. He has shown amazing consistency, only once falling below 91 on the season.

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Dongrades

As far as Downgrade options go, I am leaning towards paying more money for rookies at the moment that have earned some job security, rather than chasing cash and ending up with players like Amon and Glenn Glenn riding the pine. These guys play for the Bombers, who suck, so they should be around for a while.

The forward: Orazio Fantasia (FWD, $195,000) has two impressive scores of 67 and 82. He has a break-even of -19 and is sure to make you some cash, plus provide a handy emergency.

Mid: Elliot Kavanagh (MID, $200,000) has done his time at the Bombers and seemingly earned his spot in the best 22. He has scored 83 and 66 to give him a break-even of -13.

Def: Shaun Edwards (DEF, $185,000) Has played the 1 game, but it was a good game for 79 points from 17 possessions and five marks. Let’s face it, the Don’s might as well play the kids.

Twitter Time

I am going to have one last look at him against the Pies. He smashed them last year.

At this stage. However he will be an easy luxury upgrade if form drops.

I’ll grab him next week, however if it works for your team to go early… I would grab the tackling machine with confidence.

No, I am a fan of paying extra for the job security.

It is in his hands, I think he has great JS though.

Cheers,

@RoyDT

MB-Gauranteed-Prize-Pool-A-Sat

86 Comments

  • Great post as always Roy! I got a problem though. Who would I get:
    Pittard –> Dusty or Nicholls –> Sauce? Sloane or McVeigh? Thanks!

  • Toss up between getting rid of Rich, Saad, Newnes or Higgins for Macrae, McVeigh or Sloane.

    Currently have gone Rich to McV in the mids, then swing him back after the bye and decide if Higgins or Newnes is D6 and downgrade Saad.

    Higgins scoring seems to have dried up, and Newnes is the second string tagger if Weller is out.

    • Psych,
      I am hanging on to Higgins – North have a great run for the next month and I reckon he will be good for some solid scores. I have been hurt by him before… but I would trade Newnes before him.

  • Loving the riewoldt option, I had him on my trade table this week and was tossing up between him and dahlhaus. As much as I’d love having dahl in my team, I think he’ll stay around the 530-540 price, and could use the 50k saved on Riewoldt for a rookie with JS like Kavanagh (still have honeychurch, amon, glenn).
    If you take out riewoldts injury score of 26, he averages 103.8! And if you extrapolate his score of 26 from 18% TOG he was headed towards a 132 (a bit of a keen estimation I know) which would have him averaging 107. Personally, I was sold after seeing the 103.8.

    • Agreed. I was going to upgrade to Dahlhaus too but think I’m going to switch to Riewoldt and pocket the money for further upgrades next week. Good call.

  • Is McKernan a good downgrade option given Essendon’s ruck problems? Thinking he’ll get game time. I already have Fantasia so looking for another forward downgrade. Thoughts?

    • Will McKernan be on your ground? I think he’s a good bench option but did play well a few weeks back.

    • If named McKernan is an excellent downgrade option, especially if you have Cox DPP in the Ruck. Watched him in the Reserves week before last, played really well. Way better than that class. I liked his game against NM a few weeks back also. Downgrading someone like McCarthy makes you good coin and I think he can avg 65 for several weeks. Handy Ruck/Fwd cover.

  • Need help guys do I go Amon/Glenn to Kav or Newnes to Mcveigh? I will do one this week and one the next.

  • Edwards a better option than A.Pearce?

  • To Dangerfield I got a one word answer for your question DUSTY

  • Is rich to Clancee Pearce a good trade this week? I’ll use Pearce as a stepping stone towards hodge/Mundy/Mc V?

    • Kind of sideways for mine. As poor as Rich has been, I’d want to get him straight to a premium if possible.

      Don’t go Mundy either. I’d prefer hodge/mcveigh.

  • Suggestion on trades:

    Def: Hodge,Mundy,Pearce,Cross,Newnes,Hamling (Yeo,Clurey)

    Mid: Lewis,Heppell,Parker, Beams, Wallis,Cripps,Ellis,Dumont (Ah Chee,Shiel)

    RCK: Jacohs, Maric (Brooksby,Griffin)

    FWD: Gray,Swan,Martin,Franklin,Mitchell,Mccarthy (Cox,Clark)

    Thinking of these trades

    Mccarthy – Byrne/Lambert and Clark – Rewiolt

    or

    Mccarthy – Byrne/Lambert and Clurey – Brodie Smith.

    Thankyou

    • Anyone?

    • I’m a bit scared of Brodie Smith, personally – I assume you are short of coin? Given both Clurey and Clark have the bye this week, you have 2 weeks to get rid of both.
      Clarke – Roo is good.
      Maybe Clurey to Edwards as the alternative?

      Those two in the next two weeks if you need the coin.

  • a) Dumont/Stretch to Kavanagh

    b) Jake Kelly (losing cash) to Edwards

    a) gives me more points but b) if I don’t want to keep draining coin

  • This week bringing in Fantasia to replace the injured Vandenberg. Then hate to do it, but looks like Higgins has played his last game for my team as looking to upgrade him to Simpson, Hodge or McVeigh. I have rookies in all lines so Higgins looks like my weakest R13 person to upgrade

    • if Kane Lambert plays, then I would go Saad to K Simpson or McVeigh and leave Higgins in the team

  • Thinking

    C.McCarthy to Steele

    then

    one of Simpson/Shaw/Picken for Saad

    Which of those 3 is the best bet? I was going to think Picken or simpson and give me some cash to spend

  • Best rookie Job security out of all three Essendon players? Edwards, Kavanagh and Fantasia. Can downgrade to any one of them this week with DPP which one should I??

    • Really tough cobba. If I was Essendon I would be playing all the kids I could. It appears they may be their jobs to lose at the moment – but I haven’t seen any gossip on them this week. FWIW, I have locked in Kavanagh and Fantasia, but that is mostly because I needed to get rid of Glenn Glenn and Tarrant

      • Cheers Yarmo, reckon i might go Kavanagh, allows me to go stretch up to Macrae!

  • I have 22 players available without any trades done. However, there are 7 in DEF & 7 MID. Ideally I would trade out a MID and a DEF (as a luxury trade). The best I can come up with is Selwood & Rich > McVeigh & B Smith, w/$10k left. This would allow me to do some FWD DPP changes next week to have a full strength team on the field. Anyway, please give me your opinion as to who are my priorities to trade OUT in order of most urgent to least with these players:

    J Selwood, Rich, CEY, Thurlow, Dumont, Krakouer, Saad, T Greene (I have too many FWD…he has been in my MID all season).

    Thanks

    • Tricky Question – my thoughts are

      Dumont, Krakour, CEY, J Selwood.

      I have Selwood too, I am trading his arse next week. Dumont is risk though – if he gets a good game he will kill it, but if you have him instead of Steel, Boston etc, you are losing.

  • Rich, CEY & Saad are obviously all playing….the others are not

  • Sloane, Macrae or Heppel?

  • might just go CEY> Sloane & Dumont> Lambert…keep things simple

  • hey, you spelled Dongrades wrong….

    oh I get it, very clever.

  • Thoughts on these trades?
    Nelson to Kavanagh and Mcintosh to Laird, Kav to be my M8 instead of Dumont or Amon.
    Or
    Mcintosh to Laird and D Shiel to Sloane to chase points?

  • armitage or steven?

    • Armitage: lower break even and better consistency. Steven has almost peaked in price. Almost

  • Jared
    Pearce ave 85 and Rich 72. So there is 13 points better already. Pearce not going to be a keeper as stated he’s a stepping stone towards McVeigh or Hodge.
    What’s your overall ranking this year?

  • Looking at going Barlow and McCarthy to Sloane and Deledio. Good move or too much of a sideway between Barlow and Sloane?

  • How do these trades sound?

    McIntosh -> Laird

    CEY -> Kavnaugh

    Hogan -> Reiwoldt

    • (thumbs up)

    • Laird no. FFS Albert get over these midpricers and buy a premium

      • Who then? Simpson?

        I want to get Shaw but he has the bye this week.

      • Remember I’m playing RDT so none of Boyd, Mundy, McVeigh etc are available.

      • Whats wrong with Laird? Last 6 games 99, 99, 54, 109, 110, 100 breakeven of 60. Better then Simpsons scoring. Mcveigh is slightly scoring more but 70k difference.

        • That’s what I thought Kingzy

        • Simpson is proven, year after year.

          Yes every chance Laird could average more but for the same price you have to take the proven guy. Plus he has GCS this week and could get a 130+.

          For a limited trade format it’s even more important to get safe proven players- I never understand why you are so keen on the hype midpricers.

          • Would you trade in Brodie Smith ahead of Laird then? Smith was proven last year as solid player.

          • @Fat Knife Coz I like to take a few educated risks on players rather than just have the same players year after year. Should I have taken Barlow just because he is proven?

            I still have a majority of core proven premos so I’m not completely nuts.

            @Kingzy Smith has been pretty underwhelming this season, but I am tempted.

          • Well if that’s the case then talk about missing the boat…

            A calculated risk would be picking up a Gawn or a Steele this week. Laird is premium priced with half a season to back him up.

          • Why is it missing the boat if a player is on fire?

          • Just basic strategy. Buy low, sell high. Remember a few weeks ago when you were all set on Dylan Shiel and I told you the ship had sailed? Surely I earned your trust after that…?

          • If you’re going to pick players with no track record, at least get them cheaply.

          • Haha yeah you’ve done enough to scare me off him now, don’t worry.
            I guess it’s between Simpson and Smith.

            Simpson very tempting but only has 2 games left at Etihad where he kills it.

          • Make that 4

  • wow I’ve done ok over the BYE Rounds.

    Round 11 I had 17 players it would of been 18 if Bellchambers played then last Round I had 17 players and now this week I will Trade my 2 Ruckmen out and hopefully I’ll have 21 players. I have Shcade and Dale in my side but I am expecting them to be droped if not I have 21 players and I am ranked 2205 witch is ok.

  • So I say thank you Thurlow.

    Who would you get in? Montagna or Sloane?

  • Thoughts on these trades?

    Mumford – Jacobs
    Honeychurch – Edwards (via Byrne)

    Leaves me with $85,000. Hoping to go Kelly-McVeigh and McCarthy-lambert next week.

  • Thoughts on trades:

    C.Salem-> McKernan
    Motlop-> D.Martin

  • Get Mcveigh or Deledio?
    I can also get Fyfe for Ellis Yolmen but I would only have 100k left

    • Having 100k is fine if you have a downgrade in mind – there are a good number of downgrade options atm.

  • Fantasy trades:

    Tarrant to Fantasia

    Rich to Simpson vs McVeigh vs Laird??????

    Any help with second trade much appreciated.

    • Rich to McVeigh. McVeigh is consistent and will always get the ball along the half back line. Plus he averages over 100 in this season

  • Def: Newnes, Lumumba, Hodge, Yeo, Kelly, Mundy (Clurey, Goodes)

    Mid: Pendles, Armitage, Rischitelli, Fyfe, Dangerfield, Lewis, Cripps, Kavanagh (Amon, Dumont)

    Ruc: Goldstein, Kruezer(Holmes, Brooksby)

    Fwd: Bont, Franklin, Gray, Martin, McCarthy, Vandenburg(Cox, Honeychurch)

    I have $382 in the tank.. So was thinking McCarthy – Titchell and Kelly/Lumumba – Edwards

    But could consider McCarthy to Fantasia due to the fact he’ll make me money and get Titchell in nek week with another premo.. Any suggestions on what I could do? I really want Sloane in the next week or so.. Cheers fellas.

  • Goddard or Dahlhaus?

  • FWD line this week is: Martin, Mitchell, T Lynch, T Adams, Swan, Bont (Gray, Krakouer). 7 “Premium” FWD. The thing is though, I have T Greene sitting in MID.
    Therefore,
    J Selwood> Armitage &
    T Greene> B Smith….no increase in profit, still about 35k in the bank.

    Then next week shift one of those “Premium MID/FWD like T Adams or Bont to the MID on the field and then eventually use a couple to rotate at F7…Steele will also come in next week as my token GWS player, will probably score similar to Greene anyway and at least make me some cash not lose it. Thoughts?

  • Simple question all. Is Steele worth the extra coin on top of fantasia to sit on my bench anyway

  • What trades do you guys suggest?
    DEF: Hodge, Mundy, Boyd, Laird, Oxley, Hibbo (Kolo, Goodes)
    MID: Fyfe, Lewis, Pendles, Hartlett, JPK, Swan, Boston, Robinson (Dumont, Krak)
    RUC: Goldy, Blicavs (Clark, Downie)
    FWD: Goddard, Dahlhaus, Gray, Motlop, Fantasia, McCarthy (Cox, Salem)

    I was thinking… Salem-> Mckernan and Motlop to Martin.

    Any other suggestions will be appreciated.

  • what should I do with my team
    def hodge mundy yeo newness kkolo Oxley ( jkolo clurey )
    mid fyfe pends ebert heppeel barlow rich saad McIntosh (dumont robinson )
    ruck martin Jacobs ( brooksby griffin )
    fwd swan gray dahlhaus martin Mitchell McCarthy ( clark saad )
    who do I need in my side