Roy’s Trade Talk – Round 12

One week down, two to go. Any of us that are trying to navigate the byes should be looking at trading out some round 12 bye players for some round 11 guys who have got it out of the way. Ideally, it would be a traditional downgrade and upgrade of rookies, but injuries and poor form by the likes of Michael Barlow have caused some itchy trigger fingers.

Looking ahead, I have identified the Dogs as having the best draw so I will look at my favorite options from the kennel. Fresh off the bye, the Dogs will have a scoring frenzy against the Lions, Saints, Blues and Suns… You are welcome.

The Downgrade

Joel Hamling (DEF, $162,000) has done his job security no harm over his first two games, averaging 55 points per game and being a solid contributor in both outings. He has a break-even of 0, so he is guaranteed to make you some cash over the coming weeks.

 

Under-priced Guy

Mitch Wallis (MID, $437,000) has been on fire! Over the last three week he has an average of 120, which gives him a break-even of just 25. In that stretch, he has two massive scores of 121 and 147, so he shouldn’t struggle to go big over the next four.

Defender

I still can’t believe that Fantasy royalty, Matthew Boyd (DEF/MID, $561,000) is available as a defender! He will be massive over the next four games making his break-even of 103 irrelevant. He has a five game average of 102 and a three game average of 110 and will finish the year as a top two defender.

Jack In The Box

Don’t spend to long trying to dissect the pun behind the heading, because there is no explanation to make sense of it. What does make sense however, is trading in Jack Macrae (MID, $531,000) in. He has dropped in price by 60K since the start of the year and now has a break-even of 83, indicating he has bottomed out on the back of a three game average of 106. He is coming of a score of 130 and will flourish over the next four weeks.

Solid As A Rock

Luke Dahlhaus (FWD/MID, $531,000) is having a career best season and his Fantasy numbers are reflecting that. He is averaging over 100 per game and has only dropped under that figure of two occasions. He has gone over 110 on five occasions this season and will likely add up to three more 110+ scores over the next four weeks. His improved tackling has been a standout, only once dropping below five and he is ripe for the picking despite a reasonably high break-even of 108.

 

Twitter Time

It certainly has merit! We don’t want to fall into the trap of not improving our teams long term over the byes… but I’m tempted to trade Barlow this week.

His form and role is too good to trade at the moment, I’ll hold.

Was certainly back to playing some of his old role on the weekend. Slight concern, but there are not many good backs anyway. Give him a couple and upgrade if needed.

Jump on Danger, less chance of a rest and has massive numbers against the Hawks.

I don’t mind it, but Lewis has a BE of 165, so it’s technically better to wait on him.

I would prefer an upgrade in the rucks… Martin and Jacobs fresh off the bye.

Boyd will smash Simpson over the next four… and outscore him for the season.

Discuss you trades in the comments!
Cheers,
@RoyDT

 

 

89 Comments

  • Which trade should I do first?
    Vandenberg->Dahlhaus
    Or
    Jpk->Danger

    • First one. Rookie to premo > premo side trade. Although Danger will go 140+ this week.

  • Do I get Jacobs/S.Martin and Dahlhouse/D.Martin/Greene

    • Martin x2

    • Lock Dusty in the forward line. Flip a coin for the rucks. Both players are in great form and with similar break-evens. Stef Martin has the better average and consistency, but the Big Sauce is $41k cheaper and slightly higher ceiling.

  • Deledio or Dahlhaus?
    Probably last pick for the forward line for quite a few weeks (maybe end of year luxury trades only) as I go about fixing midfield.

  • When does benjos pods come out? Best read..

  • Birchall to Hodge or hold and upgrade someone else?

    • I suppose it depends on the rest of your DEF line. If you can get Hodge in via traditional rookie upgrade / downgrade, then do that and leave Birchall in as your D6. Whichever way, Hodge is averaging 36 ppg more than Birch… and 11 ppg more than any other DEF in the competition. You must have him in your team.

  • Who do I trade in Dangerfield or Macrae?

    • Or Ellis, I’m trying to pick one out of those three this week.

    • I brought both in this week.

      Offloaded a rookie and Steven (as his BE has gone high) and as the Dees showed, he doesn’t score well with a tight tag (which I think will be noted over the coming weeks). But what a play by Steven in that last 30 secs of the game vs Dees! I would be delighted to have him back when his price lowers (as I think it probably will).

      Both Macrae and Danger just too attractive, especially coming off the bye. I think Macrae will fatten more, but Danger should score a little higher. I needed both.

      • His low score is 92, can go 160, averages 117, and Montagna won the the game when Steven was tagged, so teams may go after the match winner there. You did bring in two guns for one though, so it’s still a nice looking trade, but he has given absolutely no reason to be culled yet.

        • but if you think that the saints will drop off the cliff (as I think they will do) then it’s probably better to jump off now, rather than wait for it to arrive
          it depends on when you think it’ll be though

          personally, teams will not tag Montagna because he’s poor with the ball, and generally isn’t that damaging either (okay, those last 30 seconds aside) – Steven and Armitage are both ahead of him in the line now
          shown by the prematch meeting of Cross->Steven and Vince->Armitage

        • I do agree that Steven’s season has been nearly flawless. It is the ‘nearly’ that is the point when fattening values is difficult when due to one’s team structure and the byes one can’t trade in the more recently emerging rookie cc’s and fatten up that way. I am thinking that over the next few weeks Steven is my best candidate to lose value. If I offload now and look to bring him back after the round 17 Melbourne game, I think I have the best chance of having borrowed well at a time when building cash resources is needed.

          I know it is a calculated gamble but his BE has gone up and I don’t see him rising in value over the next few weeks. It is tight trading, I know! But that is the beast, I think. I am sitting around 2000 and need to look at ways to get to what to me would be a personal achievement if I were to end the season under 1000. So, calculated rolling of the dice!

    • Ellis!!

  • I am thinking of trading out Touk Miller and Bellchambers

    I don’t have enough money to go SMartin and Beams so at the moment i was thinking Goldstein.

    Does anyone have a slightly cheaper alternative to beams that would a good shout?

  • ^Ellis hasn’t been mentioned once this year and I hope it stays that way. 4% ownership, 4 tonnes in a row and wont be slowing down any time soon just like last year :D

    • WCE, Sydney and GWS are his next three. Macrae and Wallis have a lot more favourable draw and are cheaper. Good pick up if you already have him, but wouldn’t be trading him in

      • the dampener on Macrae is that he gets dropped for apparently no reason, so he’s not even a lock in their 22

  • Now just reaching at 5% and rising!

    Keep up the good work!

  • Looking to trade out Barlow and Saad.
    Already have Dahlhaus in the forward line and Hamling in def, thoughts on Barlow to Macrae and Saad to Wallis via DPP?
    To many dogs in the team?

  • Thoughts on trading barlow to Mcveigh or Dahlhouse? They will be switched to forward or defence after the buys just unsure if which one to take now?

    • dahlhaus if you care about byes otherwise I think mcveigh will be a little better and is pretty cheap.

  • with Mummy out, do I go for Jacobs or Martin to accompany Goldy?

  • S…. it’s hard this week there are so many options and I do not want to stuff it up like last week when I brought in Yeo Yeo…..Upp and now Down.

  • So with the new DPPs, should my defensive upgrade be Boyd, Picken or McVeigh? Don’t care about the byes…

  • Best forward to get thats not Dahlhaus, Swan, Gray?

  • Is there a partial lockout this week with the Thursday game?

    • yes, you can do the captain loophole, only problem is I don’t know if you can give the C to a player with the bye

      • Looks like you can if they’re on field.

        • what I mean is bye players may be locked out straight away as they won’t play.

          • Ahhh, right I see what you mean.

            Hopefully someone can set this straight before Thurs night.

          • Hopefully not. We should still be able to trade them in/out after partial lockout, so technically we should be able to put the C on them.

            So what’s a par score for a VC on Thursday night that would convince you to use the loophole? 120+?

            And thanks for the feedback.

          • This week I’d probably be happy with 110+ for a VC to use the loophole.

          • Hadn’t considered this, I’m still fine thanks to Amon and McInnes, but good catch.

      • Do because I’m slow, confirm that I can V Lewis and give the C to another player who I can trade out to switch the C to Lewis when he kills it, or .. ? Anyone care to spell it out?

        • you put the VC on Lewis (and the C on anyone not Crow or Hawk)
          then you see what Lewis scores

          then you choose whether to take Lewis’ score
          if so: put a rd12 premo onfield and set the E on a playing player (it will work, he’ll come in)
          if not: put the C on whoever like you were going to

          notes:
          IF there is a late out, then you WILL cop a donut, given that you’ve got the added risk already
          YOU choose what the accepted score is – typically it’s around the 115 mark, but you may want more or less depending on your other players

          • also note that you cannot trade in any Hawks/Crows after their game, but you will NOT be able to reverse any trades that you make on Friday (your cheapie bencher drops off the extended bench? tough)

        • Step 1: Put the V on Lewis and the C on anyone who is not involved in the Thursday game.
          Step 2: If Lewis goes big, make sure the C is on a)Someone on a Bye or b)Someone not listed to play. This gives you a zero for the Captain (which you would have got anyway) and double score for Lewis.

          If Lewis fails: Make sure the C is on your best option that is playing this week.

          Hope that’s simple enough for you :-)

          • So next question, Hodge or Lewis?

          • Flip a coin.
            Lewis averages 95.5 last 2 games vs Adelaide, yet averages 118.7 at Adelaide oval. (3 games)
            Hodge averages 102.5 last 2 games vs Adelaide, but only averages 83 at the venue. (3 games)

            If you have Dangerfield, might be worth a punt. He averages 138.5 last 2 games vs Hawks and 105 at Adelaide oval. (17 games)
            Food for thought.

          • In that case, should I trade Neale to Dangerfield (as a luxury trade) and VC the S out of him?

          • Or Yeo to Dangerfield?

          • If it’s a luxury trade, I’d go Neale as he’s on the bye. Your call though, I take no responsibility for you actions. I just give you the stats. lol

  • Upgrade Bont to Dahl or Gibson to Boyd? Or Roberton to Simpson?

    • Also, today is my birthday. Sharing is caring.

      • Roberton to Simpson is probably the biggest upgrade so I’d go for that.

        I’m bringing Simpson in for Saad this week.

        And happy birthday :)

        • That was my first thought, then I considered his earning potential next week and Boyd’s run and thought Gibson to Boyd the better option, no?

          • Gibson is still a solid scorer. With Boyd there is always the risk of a rest/injury. Roberton > Simpson is a bigger upgrade

    • To clarify, Roberton is on bye but will make money next week, injured Bont ?may return this week? Gibson currently my D2 (rubbish backline) .

      • Upgrade someone else to Boyd when you have the cash again in a couple of weeks

  • Seedsman to a Round 11 Rookie
    and
    Saad to S.Martin via Blicavs

    or

    Kelly(Adel) and Seedsman OUT
    Hodge and Rook IN

    Which one and thoughts?

    • i like the 2nd one. basically upgrading seedsman to hodge which is huge then kelly to a rook (hamling) who would likely be bench cover anyway?

  • Trade 1: going Armitage (bye and BE 138) to Dangerfield

    need some advice for Trade 2:

    Neale to Macrae
    Neale to Boyd
    Neale or Newnes to Simpson
    Tarrant or Salem to Hamling – would be bench cover after the byes but gives me $100k to spend
    Any other?

    can’t afford Hodge and will wait a week for mcveigh

    team at the moment is:
    D- gibson, kolo, saad, newnes, yeo, mcintosh (tarrant, salem)
    M- pendles, armitage, neale, parker, wallis, ward, cripps, kavanagh (amon, anderson)
    R- goldy, lobbe (spuds)
    F- dusty, gray, swan, mitchell, dahlhaus, goddard (clark, mccarthy)

    Cheers!

    • I like Neale to Boyd after reading what’s above. Nice 4 weeks coming up if they dont rest him again ? Simpson’s playing some good footy lately too.

      • Thanks Pete, will look closer at those 2

        seems if Neale is not a keeper for me, then now is a good time to trade him to avoid a donut but will have to be someone coming off rd11 bye, cheers

  • This week I’ll be trading out the premo I brought in last week and is now injured and out for the season. I will be replacing him with another perfectly healthy finely tuned athlete, who will somehow injure himself next week. I will also be bringing in a gun rookie who will be placed in green while some other nuff plods around the ground at half the pace of everyone else, looking like he’s stuck in a soul destroying game of keep it off the unko kid!
    I’ll let you know my trades so as to avoid.

  • So with Mumford out for the year, who is likely to replace him as the GWS ruckman?

    Andrew Philips? Rory Lobb? Thomas Downie?

    Or will they use a some other spare tall they have floating around on their list.
    Looking for a cheap cash cow.

    • given that Philips has actually played this season (rd3) I’d be leaning toward him

      though a couple of them might get a run because of their injury crisis down back, so take note of that too

      wait for teams first though

  • Forwards under 400k? Preferably not a bulldogs player, I have 5 of them already

  • Who is a higher priority? Upgrade one of my forwards: Tarrant, Reid, Bont, Sinclair, Honeychurch, Fantasia or upgrade one of my defenders: Saad, Ox, Schade, Mcintosh? If so, who do i trade them to?
    I have 291k in the bank.
    This is for Fantasy as well.

    • Downgrade one of your worst performers from anywhere and bring in a premium. Back line is ok, work on that forward line.

  • Can someone tell me in a fair bit of detail, how the captain loophole works in Thursday night footy?

    • I tried my best to explain it on the post you left on the New DPPs article. I hope it helps explain things.

      • That was a good post thanks Lachie. Are we sure the bye players aren’t locked out on Thursday night ??

        • I’m pretty sure it is only the players playing on Thursday that are locked

  • Trade Barlow to Lewis or Vandenberg to Toby Greene?

  • Looking at bringing in 3 premo defenders over the next 2 weeks. Which three do I get out of Hodge, Boyd, McVeigh and Simpson?

    Thanks in advance.

  • Thanks Lachie