Lampe’s Price Watch – Round 10

Round 9 was another one of those weeks where virtually everyone suffered from some form of carnage.

It may have been Captain Lewis, who was a late withdrawal. It could have been horrendous rookie scores and subsequent vests/injuries. If you were really unlucky you might have got the trifecta, with Rocky’s broken ribs (Although playing out the rest of the game to score 90 was a supreme effort from the Pig).

Unfortunately, as with much of this year, round 10 looks like another shocker and the teams haven’t even been named yet! This is the time for your premiums to stand up and provide you with the 100+ scores you paid for.

Here’s a look at some of the best and worst options this week.

Defenders:

Buy:

Elliot Yeo ($479,000): Yeo has a break-even of just 41 and still has plenty of money to make. The last five rounds have seen Yeo break-out, averaging 106.8 over this time. While last weeks suspension hurt his owners, it gave the rest of us the chance to get him at a much lower price than he would have been. This may be particularly important with the backline carnage looming this round. *Buyer beware*- Yeo’s scores may be affected by the return of Selwood and Rosa.

If you are backing Yeo to continue his good form, despite the return of some Eagle guns, this is the week to trade him in. He has a low break-even and a round 13 bye.

Heath Shaw ($473,000): It feels dirty talking about Shaw as a trade in target. I still haven’t, and may never, forgive him for what he has done to me in the past. That being said, he has a breakeven of just 66, a round 13 bye and is coming off a massive 136. He has been in terrific form and should increase in price over the coming weeks.

As much as I hate to say it (and I really do), I honestly believe Shaw could be a top 6 defender. That being said, I don’t know if I can ever bring myself to take him off the never again list….again.

Avoid:

David Mundy ($561,000): This is a very harsh call, but if you are looking at overall rankings and break-even’s I would avoid Mundy until after his bye. With a breakeven of 129 and scores of 67 and 78 in two of his last three, Mundy has slowed after his magnificent start to the year.

A must have in your defence, however I would wait until after his dreaded round 12 bye, especially if you have overall rankings in mind.

Midfielders:

Buy:

Michael Barlow ($506,000): Barlow is at such a low price, you must take a good look at him, regardless of form. In all honesty, he actually hasn’t been horrendous. He has a five round average of 98.4, but he definitely isn’t playing (and more importantly scoring) like the Barlow of old. He plays Richmond this week, a team he has never scored under 100 against in 6 meetings, followed by the hapless Gold Coast. If he is ever going to hit top form it is now.

With a break-even of just 89 and a soft draw before his bye, this may be the cheapest Barlow is for many weeks to come.

Steele Sidebottom ($598,000): In my opinion, Sidebottom should be the number one trade in target for Rockliff owners, who are not concerned about the byes. Steele has a breakeven of 101 and I can’t see him being any cheaper for the majority of the season. He hasn’t taken any time to return to top form following his thumb injury, with scores of 118 and 131 in his last two.

The only reason you wouldn’t pick Sidebottom is due to his round 12 bye. He looks a shoo-in to be a top 8 mid by seasons end.

Avoid:

Dyson Heppell ($556,000): I’m not sure what has happened to Hepp over the last month. Perhaps it is a flare up of the injury that required minor knee surgery pre-season. Perhaps he is simply out of form. Either way, his Dream Team scores have suffered as a result. With a break-even of 116 and a round 12 bye, I would advise both coaches looking for league wins and overall rankings to stay away for now.

Only has one 100+ score in his last five, but did manage a huge 152 against Geelong last year. Could be a bargain following his bye if he is close to $500,000.

Joel Selwood ($502,000): Despite being priced at just over $500,000 I would advise everyone to steer well clear of Selwood for now. He has been shocking of late, with a three round average of 74.7 and a five round average of 84. In my opinion, this is primarily due to his hand injury. This isn’t a good thing, as it makes it even harder to know when he will return to peak fitness and form.

Has a breakeven of 126, is in horrendous form and is playing hurt. Wait until after his bye when he could be a steal at well under 500k and over his injury woes.

Rucks:

Buy:

Shane Mumford ($506,000): One of the players who could benefit both coaches hoping to improve their overall ranking and those just looking for league wins. Mumford has a breakeven of 89 and has hit his straps over the last month. He hasn’t gone under 82 in his last seven, and I am predicting Mumford to be the third highest averaging ruckmen for the rest of the year.

Has a very handy round 13 bye and despite coming up against Martin this week, should still dominate around the stoppages.

50/50:

Matthew Kreuzer ($244,000): Before any trade is made you MUST wait and see if Kreuzer is named this week. If so, it is also important to see whether Wood gets a gig (I expect he ‘Wood’ regardless). This is one of the biggest calls you may make all season and could define your year. In many ways this is both the best and worst week for Kreuzer to be named. With Clark injured and Bellchambers getting to the point where you must trade him, Kreuzer could be a genius downgrade. On the other hand, trading him in this week allows you no time to assess his fitness, form and role within the team. With a breakeven of 46, he should have some increase in price in the coming weeks.

Personally, I would avoid Kreuzer until *at least* after his round 11 bye.

Avoid:

Nic Naitanui ($421,000): Again, this is a harsh call and some people may not agree with me on this. Normally when a player has a breakeven of 50 and is coming into some decent form, I would tell you too consider trading them in. With Naitanui, I am going to do the opposite. I would strongly advise spending the extra coin to get one of the top 2 or 3 ruckmen in the competition. It is not that Naitanui will provide you with terrible scores but you will most likely miss out on the premium numbers of a Jacobs, Martin or Mumford. The main concern I have with Naitanui is that he will consistently pump out average scores, while you have more important trades then upgrading him later in the year.

I could have it completely wrong, and if you are going to pick Naitanui this is the week to do so. Personally, I would avoid, but if you believe he is a premium or you can use him as a stepping stone then feel free to do so.

Forwards:

Buy:

Brett Deledio ($515,000) and Tom Mitchell ($525,000): In general, I will try to avoid mentioning the same players two weeks in a row. If however, they provide great value like these two, I will continue to do so. Deledio is still significantly under-priced and has a breakeven of just 63. Mitchell has a break-even of 80 and will only increase in price as the year progresses.

Out of the two, I would pick Mitchell (Could destroy Gold Coast and has the better Fantasy game IMO) but both should be top 6 forwards by seasons end.

Luke Dahlhaus ($539,000): For some unknown reason, myself included, the vast majority of the competition has not jumped on board the Dahlhaus train. Perhaps it is the fact he doesn’t go massive, with no score over 120 this year. What he does bring, is a consistent score of just over 100 most weeks and is under-priced for what he has been producing.

He is the Matthew Priddis of your forward line. With a break-even of 86, you are getting him as cheap as he will be for the foreseeable future.

Avoid:

Nick Riewoldt ($469,000): It was a toss-up between Riewoldt and Devon Smith. I went with Riewoldt, as he may have a few more people  starting to consider him this week. In the matches that Riewoldt has played, he has actually looked really good and scored quite well. On the flip side, Riewoldt has a break-even of 106, plays the Hawks before his round 11 bye and at 32 years of age durability is always a concern.

I would advise those looking at an under-priced premium to avoid Nick Riewoldt for now. However, Keep in your memory bank that he could be a fantastic point of difference in your forward line after his bye.

Bye advice:

Have a think about what you really want out of the season before you trade this week.

If you simply want to beat your mates and win your league, then trade in the best possible player and don’t give the byes a second thought (Do of course check that you are not playing league matches over the byes).

If you’re looking at overall rankings, then you must pay some consideration to the byes and your structure. That being said, don’t compromise your team by trading in players you would never consider just because of their bye round. This will hurt you in the long run.

Final thought: My Fantasy team (Lampshade’s Lads) managed a respectable 2096 last week, despite a fair amount of carnage. This has taken my ranking to 451st overall and within striking distance…I hope.

29 Comments

  • Thanks for the great article mate, I actually started with Heath Shaw this season because of the lack of defenders and the fact that last year was his lowest averaging year since the start of his career. I also started with Sidebum and Lids who i got their lowest score of the season then had to trade them out…

    • Thanks mate, I appreciate it. I had the exact same thoughts as you in the pre-season but didn’t end up going through with it (Like I said, Shaw and I have a very tenuous relationship because of his past indiscretions).

      Bad luck with Sidebottom and Deledio too. Sidebottom in particular was a great starting mid and it is only bad luck that it didn’t pay off!

  • Great writing mate, have byes in consideration but will bring in Sidebottom this week regardless (for Rocky) and give you one more week before making the (big) call of whether I go with him or Shaw heading into the byes.

    Very keen to get Lids in after his bye, probably Taylor Adams.

    Cheers again, keep up the good work!

    • Thanks mate. Sidebottom is a terrific trade IMO. You never know what can happen in an individual week, but over the course of the season he should be a fantastic pick-up.

      Is that Yeo you are talking about going into the byes with in consideration with Shaw?

      Taylor Adams to Deledio is a magnificent trade. I am also an Adams owner and may be doing the exact same thing after his bye!

      • Sorry yes that was Yeo! Not sure if auto-correct or general morning slowness!

  • Great article mate!
    Am a massive fan of Sidebottom (started with him) but due to byes will have to wait :(
    I’m still questionable on Barlow. Traded him out earlier this season as i can’t trust his role

    • Thanks Jordan, appreciate it mate. I am also a huge Sidebottom fan and started with him too. Unfortunately, you can’t predict bad luck!

      I have been a Barlow owner (at times unfortunately) for a number of weeks now and I don’t fully trust him either. However, If I wasn’t an owner, I would find it very difficult to pass up a player like him at his current price.

      I could be wrong on this, but to me, his role hasn’t significantly changed from last year. I think he is just out of form. It is true that he is spending a little less time at centre bounce stoppages but other than that he is still around the action for the majority of the game.

      Maybe i’m a fool, but i’m fairly confident he can have a strong few weeks before his bye and an improved second half of the season.

  • Great article i was considering this week

    Rocky to Wallis
    Oxley to Yeo

    Saad survives one more week and i want to go Bellchambers to forwards and then Clark to ruck for Kreuzer

    I can’t bring in Shaw because it’s shaw

    • hey Kirk, Solid trades if you need the money to get from Oxley to Yeo. Hopefully Yeo can continue his current form and the return of some eagles don’t negatively effect his scoring!

      Hopefully Wallis will continue as an out and out mid and keep pumping out those big scores for you too mate.

      Unfortunately, you won’t be able to pick up Kreuzer next week (because of his bye) but having this week to look at him is a good thing IMO.

      Lastly, I am with you on the Shaw call mate! I can’t even imagine what he will do if I bring him in, but I know he will be sitting on the sidelines for 10 weeks because of something stupid.

    • great trades. are you going to keep Wallis as your M7/8 or upgrade after byes?

      I am also doing Rocky to Wallis and Oxley to Dahlhaus (i already own Yeo)

  • Mitch Wallis or Danger?

    • I am going Wallis surely should make some money

    • that’s a really tough one mate, as both have had positional/role changes that have significantly affected their scoring.

      Walsh looks to have given Danger more midfield time and his scores are more consistent as a result. Wallis has also had a role change, with so many of the Bulldogs engine room out from last year, he has scrapped his tagging role and is playing as an out and out mid.

      It’s only a personal preference of mine but I tend to go with the super premium (If you can call Danger that) in these situations. Invariably, whenever I jump on board a player like Wallis they switch roles or begin to spud it up. The other benefit of going with Danger in this situation is that he is also much easier to sideways trade to another premium if things go wrong.

      All in all, i’d pick Danger (Do be aware of a huge tag from Curnow this week though). Like I said, it’s only a personal preference of mine but I tend to avoid those stepping stone kind of players (E.g: Wallis) and focus on getting super premiums whenever possible. However,if you think Wallis will keep up his current scoring and role than by all means pick him, because he is going to significantly increase in price in the coming weeks.

  • A thinking fantasy player’s article, Lampe. I need a defender (M Talia out). Do I go Hodge for points or Yeo for cash?

    • Thanks Henry, I do try and put a fair bit of time and effort in mate.

      80% of the time I will advise people to play the break-even and price game, however there are exceptions to that rule. Hodge is one of those. In my mind, if he is fit, there is no way Hodge can finish outside of the top 3 Defenders for the year. He is also in career best Fantasy form.

      On the other Hand, Yeo has a lower break-even and will save you a significant amount of cash. The jury is still out on Yeo, when you are comparing him to the absolute top end players such as Hodge, Boyd, Mundy, etc.

      My advise would be to get Hodge, however if you desperately need the cash and a player with a round 13 bye Yeo should be a solid option at D5 or 6.

  • Nice write up and responses Lampe, I have a quick question.. You would rather take on Mumford than Goldstein in the rucks as a keeper? I know Mumford was pretty decent a couple of years ago but you think he still has the potential to stay in my side?

    • thanks mate. Wow, that’s a tough one.

      This is only a personal preference but I would go with Mumford, just. It’s really a toss of the coin. For me, his tackling and beast work around the stoppages guarantee him a lot of points, whereas Goldstein relies on a bit more of the free ball around the ground (marks, etc). That being said, Goldstein probably has the higher ceiling.

      Honestly, I think Mumford by about a 1 point higher average, however if you can get Jacobs and Martin they should be the top two.

  • Hey Lampe, would you get in a Fyfe/Sidebottom leaving me with 300k for a defender, Get Wallis leaving 450k for a defender, or a rookie mid Dumont etc. allowing me to get
    hodge? I am aiming to play a full squad over the bye rounds!
    Great article btw!

    • That’s another tough one mate.

      My number one option would be Fyfe or Sidebottom and then a complete downgrade in your defence (either Hamling or Clurey). This would leave you with about 160k or so for your next upgrade over the byes.

      My number two option would be a rookie Mid, allowing you to get Hodge. Possibly Amon, Dumont, Boston or even a Kavanagh.

      Thirdly, I would get Wallis allowing you to pick up a Kelly, Suckling or Mackie type. If you have slightly more cash, a Simpson, Shaw or Gibson could be a better option.

      That is just my personal preference but you must obviously fit this in around your bye structure, etc if you are planning to play a full team over the byes.

  • LAMPE… would I be ble to get an opinion on Brandon Ellis? Looking at him this week for Rocky. His bye suits my structure and I can’t see why he won’t be in that 105-110 bracket at seasons end

    • Hey Cotchy, I actually really rate Brandon Ellis. I have considered him a few times over the last two years but have never gone through with it myself.

      He is that solid type of midfielder, who will get you near a hundred most weeks. I quite like his role as well. He plays as an outside midfielder, getting a lot of easy marks and kicks. He is also well down the line for a tag after Martin, Cotchin and Deledio.

      The other positive is that he is still young so should get better and more consistent with each game really.

      The one negative is that he has never had a full season averaging over 100, so the jury is still out until he actually does that.

      As he suits your bye structure I would say go for it. A 105-110 average may be pushing it but I would predict between 100-105 for the rest of the year.

  • Need 2 from Fyfe, Barlow, Heppel, Ward, Shiel, Beams, Gaff, Ellis

  • Number one is Fyfe, far and away the best player and fantasy option at the moment.

    Secondly I would go with Beams. He isn’t as consistent as he was at Collingwood but I would expect him to average the most points for the rest of the year after Fyfe.

    In order of who is the best pick up this week I would say: Fyfe, Beams, Barlow, Ellis, Heppell, Shiel, Ward and Gaff.

    My average for each player for the rest of the season is a little different.

    I would order that as: Fyfe, Beams, Heppell, Barlow, Ellis, Shiel, Ward, Gaff.

  • Hey mate, I need some help and was wondering if you can help.

    I have 88K in the bank and not sure what to do.

    This is my team:
    DEF: Hooker, Kelly, Saad, Oxley, Hunt, Gibson (Tippett, Byrne)
    MID: Fyfe, Pendles, Beams, Lewis, Cripps, Stevens, Gray, Vandenberg (CEY, Krakour)
    RUCK: Bellchambers, Naitunui (Cox, Griffin)
    FWD: Bont, Martin, Goddard, Swan, Clark, Dahlhaus (Karnezis, McGrath)

    I’m struggling because I have 2 out in the forward line and the bench players aren’t playing but I really need to trade out Oxley and upgrade. What would you suggest? Thanks in advance

  • Hey Destroyer.

    I would advise you don’t make your final trades until you see the Sunday (and hopefully) Monday final teams. However, I believe that the Monday squads will not be fully known until after lockout. This unfortunately means you will not know whether Oxley is playing or not this week.

    I will lay out the two best options I see for you below, and then rate them in the order I would do them.

    Option 1: Swap Bontempelli into the Midfield and move Gray to your forward line. Then move CEY onto your field. From here either trade Clark to a forward rookie (dale or Fantasia) or downgrade Oxley to a defender rookie (Hamling or Clurey). With your second trade you then either upgrade Oxley to Mundy or Boyd (unfortunately you can’t reach Hodge this way) or upgrade Clark to one of (Mitchell, Franklin or Deledio). The second trade obviously depends on your first downgrade.

    Option 2: Do the same thing swapping Bontempelli and Gray. Then move CEY onto your field. This time, downgrade Bontempelli to a midfield rookie (Acres, Boston, Dumont, Kavanagh, etc) and then upgrade Oxley to Hodge. This still leaves you with a doughnut, but if you are determined to get Hodge then this is the best way that I can see to do it.

    So, this is what I would do.

    preference 1: Swap Bontempelli and Gray and move CEY onto your field.
    trade 1- Downgrade Oxley or Clark.
    Trade 2- Upgrade the other one of the two.

    preference 2: Do the same thing swapping Bontempelli and Gray, then moving CEY onto your field.
    trade 1- downgrade Bontempelli to a midfield rookie.
    Trade 2- Upgrade Oxley to Hodge. This will allow you to get Hodge and you will have a lot of cash saved over for next week. You will be guaranteed a 0 this week though.

    As I said, I would do the first one meaning you will save yourself from a doughnut (assuming no late withdrawals) and you will have a defender or forward upgrade.

  • Thanks heaps mate.

    I’m thinking of doing the first one and downgrading Clark, who is the better rookie? Dale or Fantasia? And then I can upgrade Oxley, once again which defender do you recommend?

    Thanks again you’ve saved me because I would have had no idea what to do!

    • I would definitely rate Dale as the better of the two at this stage.
      I think Bale leaves you with just enough coin to pick either Mundy or Boyd. I would go Boyd right now, however if you are at all worried about byes pick the one that best suits your structure.
      You really can’t go wrong with either of these two, both should average 100+ for the rest of the year, with a bit of luck.

  • Man Lampe youre a farken champ! Really go out of your way to respond. Cheers bro.

    • No worries mate, happy to help. I won’t always be right but hopefully I can be more times than not.