Jeppa’s Juniors – Round 7

Let this week’s suspension/injury woes remind you of the importance of team depth. Rookies that are traded in from this point need to be in form, decent ball winners and team players. Sometimes there is the odd imposter (Newton) and assessments of players can change quickly (Kelly) but if we look at the contribution certain youngsters make out on the field and the role they play in a side then these characteristics will go a long way towards making the right downgrades.

At this stage of the game, coaches need to trade aggressively and make those early upgrades. Many rookies have topped out (Lonie, Salem, McIntosh) and there are a heap of underpriced premiums available (Rocky, Barlow, Parker) so don’t miss the opportunity to make an upgrade this week.

Thankfully, the dire rookie situation seems to be on the up…

 

Three Gamers

Touk-Miller-AFL-2015-628KEEPERS

Touk Miller (Mid. $359,000, 39 be AF. $341,000, 29 be DT) answered his coaches prayers in a time of need. Up against the Eagles, in wet conditions that really suited him, Miller racked up 21 possessions, 1 mark, 8 tackles and 83 Fantasy points. He wasn’t the highest rookie scorer for the round but each week that passes, Miller is improving and that’s why he’s a keeper! An avergae of 83 from his past five games justifies starting him on your field.

Originally rookie priced, Tory Dickson, 102 (Fwd. $372,000, 29 be AF. $372,900, 22 be DT), Jackson Thurlow, 100 (Def/Mid. $364,000, 18 be AF. $373,800, 6 be DT) and Billy Hartung, 91 (Mid. $347,000, 29 be AF. $340,800, 18 be DT) gave their small percentage of owners plenty to smile about in Round 7. Unfortunately, all three have been inconsistent performers this season but on the back of last week, their breakevens are favourable.

Dom Sheed, 98 (Mid. $362,000, 27 be AF. $363,600, 17 be DT) and Jake Kelly, 96 (Def. $278,000, -13 be AF. $267,800, -46 be DT) are playing with plenty of confience. Kelly appeared to win all of his 50/50 contests and Sheed is benfiting greatly from the Eagles dominance all over the ground. Back Kelly in and start him on your field this week.

Other rooks to hold on to for value and scoring potential include Fraser McInnes, 90 (Fwd. $188,000, -6 be AF. $169,800, -18 be DT), Callum Sinclair, 89 (Ruc/Fwd. $290,000, 8 be AF. $311,000, 13 be DT), Cameron McCarthy, 88 (Fwd. $309,000, 41 be AF. $296,000, 42 be DT), Cory Gregson, 83 (Mid. $319,000, 16 be AF. $316,100, 2 be DT), Robbie Tarrant, 79 (Fwd/Def. $300,000, 28 be AF. Def. $285,600, 27 be DT) and Nathan Krakouer, 75 (Fwd/Mid. $263,000, 16 be AF. $299,900, -12 be DT). You could pick up McInnes this week as a short term cashcow but remember he is prone to some low scores.

It pains me to say it but Brett Goodes’ (Def. $240,000, 11 be AF. $257,600, -6 be DT) recent form indicates that he’s a keeper. Even with Boyd back, he still amassed 11 kicks, 6 handballs, 4 tackles and 82 Fantasy points playing more at half forward, wing and even a bit in the ruck! With the Dogs turning to youth, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jack Macrae replaces him on the selection front this Thursday night. If you don’t own him, play it safe and don’t trade him in.

DON’T PANIC

Fletcher Roberts, 64 (Def. $178,000, 12 be AF. $195,900, 27 be DT), Henry Schade, 58 (Def. $179,000, -6 be AF. $165,300, -25 be DT), Alex Sexton, 57 (Fwd/Mid. $280,000, 16 be AF. $292,000, 21 be DT), Ayce Cordy, 46 (Ruc/Fwd. $202,000, 2 be AF. Fwd. $225,800, -7 DT), Liam Duggan, 42 (Mid. $244,000, 29 be AF. $245,000, 55 be DT), Mitch Clark, 40 (Ruc/Fwd. $290,000, 44 be AF. Fwd. $284,300, 55 DT) and Daniel McKenzie, 30 (Def/Mid. $255,000, 43 be AF. $159,100, -11 be DT) all weren’t as prominent as their owners would have liked but their breakevens are lower or similar to their averages. You shouldn’t lose any money holding these players this week just make sure you use them all as bench cover.

With plenty of other rookies in the firing line, you want to hold Adam Oxley, 48 (Def. $362,000, 54 be AF. $369,700, 87 be DT). The Ox is avergaing a healthy 73 Fantasy points per game. Back him in!

Patrick Cripps (Mid. $350,000, 30 be AF. $374,700, 80 be DT), Adam Saad (Def/Mid. $311,000, 18 be AF. $289,100, -7 be DT) and Jesse Hogan (Fwd. $332,000, 46 be AF. $300,000, 34 be DT) should all return from minor injuries this week so sleep easy.

TRADE, TRADE, TRADE

If I haven’t categorised a player from Round 7 under ‘Keepers’ or ‘Don’t Panic’ then trade them out as soon as you can but when appropriate.

A question I get asked a lot is who do I trade first? It’s not bulletproof but here’s my trade out list of popular rookies in order for this week:

    ♦ Jack Lonie, 4 (Fwd. $283,000, 68 be AF. $277,500, 101 be DT)

    ♦ Christian Salem, 12 (Fwd/Def. $305,000, 72 be AF. Fwd. $293,100, 64 be DT)

    ♦ Ben Newton, DNP (Mid. $300,000, 50 be AF. $292,800, 52 be DT)

    ♦ Mitch Honeychurch, 26 (Fwd. $279,000, 62 be AF. $280,300, 76 be DT)

    ♦ Kamdyn McIntosh, 59 (Def/Mid. $322,000, 65 be AF. Def. $297,000, 69 DT)

    ♦ Aaron Vandenberg, 43 (Fwd/Mid. $342,000, 65 be AF. Mid. $339,900, 94 be DT)

    ♦ Michael Talia, 70 (Def. $295,000, 55 be AF. $281,000, 47 be DT)

    ♦ Angus Brayshaw, 59 (Mid. $335,000, 61 be AF. $318,000, 71 be DT)

    ♦ Nathan Van Berlo, 67 (Mid. $345,000, 59 be AF. $323,300, 48 be DT)

 

Two Gamers

De GoeyOf the two gamers, Jordan De Goey (Mid. $264,000, 49 be AF. $202,900, 29 be DT) impressed me the most. The young midfielder had been killing it in the VFL and he finally got his chance to shine on the big stage. Against the Tigers, the most notable stat for De Goey was his 9 tackles, the highest of any player on the ground. He also had 6 kicks, 8 handballs, 3 marks, 1 goal and 75 Fantasy points. De Goey’s price is tricky for coaches to decipher. I’m fine with spending more money on rooks that will give you a healthy return but De Goey is a vest risk, which puts me off for Fantasy. A 3-bench midfield in Dreamteam does however, give you an added safety net and with not too many quality rooks putting their hand up at the minute, I’m seriously considering him for DT.

Eli Templeton (Fwd. $213,000, 15 be AF. $231,400, 28 be DT) was a very late inclusion against the Crows after Montagna got some hammy tightness in the warm up. No dreadlocks Templeton took his opportunity, played well and racked up 13 possessions, 5 marks, a notable 9 tackles and 79 Fantasy points. That sort of performance will see him hold his spot this week and playing as a high half forward, his game should be Fantasy friendly as long as he can stay away from the green vest (no guarantees). With Salem out injured, you will pocket a handy $92,000 trading him down to Eli. Consider but it’s a case of high risk, high reward.

It was looking pretty bleak for Jake Lever (Def. $289,000, 33 be AF. $157,900, -51 be DT) owners. The tall defender was comprehensively beaten by Josh Bruce and had just 30 Fantasy points to three quarter time but some classic junk time pushed his score up to 52. I did warn you that his 90 Fantasy points in Round 6 was inflated and that you should expect scores between 60 and 70. Lever is Dreamteam relevant only as a D7/D8. Fellow tall defender Alex Pearce, 34 (Def. $144,000, 7 be AF. $124,600, -11 be DT) is doing a great stand-in job at full back but note that McPharlin is due to return this week and he’ll likely be dropped as a result.

Billy Stretch (Mid. $181,000, 30 be AF. $117,900, -9 be DT) had a mere 3 possessions and 22 Fantasy points from just over a half of football. It was pretty tough going for Stretch who started in the green vest and when entering the game had to try and compete against a rampant Hawthorn outfit. I hope Paul Roos gives him another chance this week because he definitely has the talent. Matthew Dick (Def/Mid. $120,000, 25 be AF. $124,600, 26 be DT) avoided the green vest and was given the lockdown job on midfielder turned forward, Toby Greene. Unfortunately, Greene carved him up and Dick is in danger of losing his spot as a result. 34 Fantasy points from 97% game time isn’t the ideal output but his dual position status gives coaches plenty of options. Only if you’re desperate.

Fringe players Corey Ellis, 46 (Mid. $257,000, 50 be AF. $167,900, 5 be DT) and Tommy Sheridan, 51 (Mid. $234,000, 30 be AF. $229,300, 24 be DT) are just that and I wouldn’t trade them in. Kyle Langford, 2 (Fwd. $231,000, 68 be AF. $142,900, 27 be DT) is another to stay away from. He copped a head high knock and was subsequently subbed off at half time. I doubt Langford will play this weekend.

 

One Gamers

AmonKarl Amon (Mid. $133,000, 3 be AF. $124,600 DT) didn’t let a green vest slow him down. The running machine scored 52 Fantasy points from just 29% time on ground…boom! Playing predominately on a wing, Amon worked incredibly hard and I get the impression that Hinkley has a couple in line to be dropped before the young fella. If Amon is named to play this week, pick him for Fantasy but start him on your bench to eliminate the vest risk.

Shaun McKernan, 54 (Ruc/Fwd. $197,000, 23 be AF. $248,400 DT) and Bailey Dale, 50 (Fwd. $168,000, 16 be AF. $117,900 DT) were both serviceable for their clubs in Round 7. McKernan was a late inclusion for Carlisle and played up forward and in the ruck. I can’t see McKernan being a regular for Essendon right at the minute so stay away for now. Dale is in the same boat. The medium forward looks to have the X-Factor but he was serviceable in just two of the four quarters and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s dropped this week. Be careful.

Jack Leslie, 37 (Def. $146,000, 20 be AF. $169,300 DT) proved to be a slow burn defender rookie similar to Schade. Personally, I’m not one to trade in players likely to average less than 50. A green vested Sam Blease (Fwd/Mid. $177,000, 39 be AF. $191,900 DT) didn’t get much of a chance to impress, scoring 24 Fantasy points in a quarter and a half. He was used at half forward, tried hard but didn’t stamp his authority when the Cats were desperate for a winner. I’m not sure if Blease will get another chance this week so avoid for now.

Richmond trio Liam McBean, 24 (Fwd. $120,000, 20 be AF. $124,600 DT), Todd Elton, 16 (Fwd. $120,000, 33 be AF. $124,600 DT) and Connor Menadue, 13 (Mid. $186,000, 51 be AF. $117,900 DT) failed to generate any excitement this week for Fantasy coaches. Menadue did cop the green vest though but looked lively when he came on at the start of the last quarter. He could be a sneaky pick up in a week or two pending form and scores.

For obvious reasons, stay well away from Matthew Watson (Def/Fwd. $247,000, 70 be AF. $233,100 DT) who scored 15 Fantasy points in just under three quarters and was subsequently subbed off for being poor.

 

Please note that if I haven’t mentioned a rookie priced player above, it means I don’t rate them. Remember rooks are classified as players under $250,000 in Fantasy and/or Dreamteam.

 

Keep Your Eye On

COLQUHOUN SamWhen the axe swings at Port this week, Sam Colquhoun (Def. $219,000, 40 be AF. $197,700 DT) is the first in line for a senior call up. Recent reports have also suggested that he is the likely successor to veteran Kane Cornes (source) who plays his last game this weekend. Colquhoun who now boasts long hair and a dirty mo is no stranger to AFL ranks, playing 10 games in 2013. Coming back from a knee reconstruction, he’s found plenty of the footy in the SANFL averaging 25 possessions, 12 marks, 4.5 tackles and a massive 124 Fantasy points from his past two games. Ken Hinkley appears to be a fan and I will be to if he gives us some big Fantasy scores. Colquhoun is a sensible trade down option if named but he’s not immune to the vest.

Up and coming defender Harrison Wigg (Def. $192,000, 36 be AF. $117,900 DT) could debut this week with Jaensch gone for the season and Brodie Smith having the week off with concussion. Wigg is a rebounding defender with arguably the best kick from last year’s crop of draftees. He’s been in consistent form in the SANFL and teammate Ricky Henderson talked him up on Monday (source). Looking at his SANFL stats, I suspect Wigg will average around 60 Fantasy points per game. 

Matthew Kruezer (Ruc. $244,000, 45 be AF. $333,000 DT) just makes the ‘rookie’ cut with his $244,000 price tag in AFL Fantasy. The big fella has two VFL games under his belt and is a likely inclusion for the struggling Blues this week. With Bellchambers playing like a potato, the timing of Kreuzer’s return is handy. We all know what he’s capable of but don’t expect anything amazing in the first few weeks. At this stage, Kreuz is Fantasy relevant only due to price.

The previously mentioned Trent Dumont (Mid. $120,000, 27 be AF. $124,600 DT), Orazio Fantasia (Fwd. $142,000, 27 be AF. $156,200 DT), Zac Jones (Def. $142,000, 27 be AF. $156,600 DT) and Blake Acres (Mid. $161,000, 34 be AF. $208,800 DT) are all kicking butt in the reserves. With scoring potential and job security in mind, the pick of the bunch here is Acres even though he just missed selection last week.

 

Feel free to ask me a question below and don’t forget to add me on Twitter @JeppaDT for all things Fantasy and more. Happy trading!

78 Comments

  • Good Read Jep! I’m bringing in Amon this week, I watched the game last week and he looked to have fit in perfectly with the boys! PAFC <3

  • Amon will be coming into the Warne Dawgs this week, but don’t be surprised if Dumont is an in… if he had better job security, I’d be all over him.

  • Top read as always Jeppa
    personally doing KMac to Lever this week (in DT)

    and which crow do you think benefits from the Jaensch injury (and B Smith resting) in the short term?

    • and I know he’s not rated, but it might be worth mentioning that J Sinclair is BACK onto the rookie list with Seb Ross making his return from injury

    • Harrison Wigg should benefit as Ive stated above

  • @samdiathm definitely henderson. i read on the afl website he will be filling in for jaensch’s role. can’t find the specific article at the moment but it was posted on monday by memory

    • “Up and coming defender Harrison Wigg (Def. $192,000, 36 be AF. $117,900 DT) could debut this week with Jaensch gone for the season and Brodie Smith having the week off with concussion. Wigg is a rebounding defender with arguably the best kick from last year’s crop of draftees. He’s been in consistent form in the SANFL and teammate Ricky Henderson talked him up on Monday (source). Looking at his SANFL stats, I suspect Wigg will average around 60 Fantasy points per game.”

      That is the second paragraph in the Keep Your Eye On section. If picked – fill your boots.

  • Forget Colquhoun, Brendon Ah Chee did a great tagging job when he came on for a quarter and a bit two weeks ago against WCE and rises up the pecking order to replace Kornes.

    • I wouldnt say Ah Chee did a great tagging job. He was assigned to Priddis who got plenty of it in the last qtr

  • awesome read as usual jep my strategy this week is a bit of a gamble bu is as follows. I am planning on trading bellchambers out sub Clark to the ruck Vandenberg fwd then bring amon into my side. My theory is cats v Carlton should see Clark score at least 60+ points same can’t be said for belly. Also some of the cash I make from this trade willbe used to upgrade Salem to picken and some to upgrade Clark next week

    • Copy and pasting the same thing on every thread doesn’t mean it will get answered … The way this year is back yourself and have a crack. You don’t need a thumbs up on every thread to feel good about it

    • My plan for Fantasy is similar!

  • Whats the word on Glenn? When’s he due back in?

  • Recall maybe just an answer would be sufficient thing is I post answers for peeps all the time its nice to get some feedback from diff peeps atleast but nice of you too have ya 2 cents worth

    • okay…

      Belly – IF McKernan plays (depends how Carlisle feels), then that severely hampers his scoring, but be wary that Brisbane do concede a few points (average 80 to the best ruckman this year)

      Clark – Carlton are bad, but they generally don’t concede much to the KPP forward (especially with a few returns scheduled this week) so be wary of him as R2 (not sure you’re going to score more points with this)

      Vandenberg – the Dees do play a leaky WB side, but remember that Roos said that they were ‘exhausted’ last week. Does he get a rest? His scoring has tapered off substantially this past 2 weeks, so maybe not the best option to be keeping (average 50 over his last 2 games)

      Amon – not sure too expect too much from him, M Crouch did similar last week (vs Suns too) only to back up with a 70 this week – Wines and others are set to return, so maybe that hampers his scoring more, I wouldn’t be playing him, he’s only a bench option

      think you might have bigger issues than Bellchambers, and you’re keeping 2 players (Clark and V’Berg) that should be on their way, both have clearly topped out, and scoring (especially VBerg) has gone completely

      V’Berg -> Amon if you really must, and then whatever your other trade is (if it’s Lewis, do you really need him? Other premos have fired since he left, and he’s breaking your structure if you are)

      just my 2 cents

  • Dumont will get a run with Swallow out IMO.

  • What’s the oddson rielly obrien getting a run soon been in ripping form.in the sanfl and can’t be too far away

  • what is karl amon breakeven?

  • solid jepp.
    salem has to go – degoey for me. Ill have another look at amon this week and prob bring him in for VB next week! very interested in kreuz too, hope he gets back in form.

    • I rolled the dice and took Kruezer from the start. Had the extra $100 k so thought id save the trade later. Also I know its early but Carlton need a key forward to kick goals which Kruz can play. I’d expect him to sit there a lot early on so fingers crossed he gains the dpp in the next lot. I know its speculation but fingers crossed.

  • Clark will be out of my side next week I am ridding my team if belly as he will leak cash faster than the others Vandenberg is a roller coaster I agree but in fwd line he can ride the pine till the byes amon does worry me a lil with wines returning but I think his performance should se him hold his spot.

    CHEERS SAM I really appreciate the input

  • Cheers Jeppa

    Here is my dilemma:

    Duncan needs to go due to his long term injury. Looking to offload Salem/McIntosh/Vandenberg

    Would you go for a Priddis/JPK type (low BE) and downgrade to Amon/Dumont, leaving me with $200k in change
    OR
    bring in Rocky and Yeo leaving me with only $20k in the bank

    Cheers

    • Option 2 by a long way…….ripping trade if u can get it done!

    • Priddis must have the lowest score variation (I think), rare high score last week, usually tons up, JPK FIIK what he will get, cruises when the swans pump sides – so should go well this week. On the other, rocky has a high BE, he could get it but 50/50 so he could wait, Yeo on the rise so if you want him now’s the time. The cash would be nice, but you never know what is to come and you need the premo’s

      • Cheers Wazman, pretty spot on

        Basically, I would prefer to wait another week on Rocky, however I don’t think there is much between Rocky vs JPK/priddis long term in terms of points so I doesn’t make a lot of sense to spend an extra $100k on these premos. Plus Yeo sures up my backline, has rd13 bye which suits my team and hopefully he will be an easier stepping stone to bringing Hodge back into my team

        Thanks for your comments

    • option 2 brother

  • Salem out for 3-4 weeks means goodbye hello Titch

    Other must do trade is Duncan and i have gone down to Amon, hoping next week Stevie J/Rocky can come in for A’V

    • good options assuming Amon gets picked (wines back very soon)

      can you comment on mine above?

  • I would go rok and yeo as they can score big and if yeo tops 100 will rise aroun 40-50k amon and or Dumont will still be affordable next week go for the points matey

  • Great read As always Jepp!
    Jack Sinclair not getting much love in your write ups, I picked him up at the start of the season instead of jed Anderson, just because I thought he was more of a chance to break into the st kilda side than Anderson into the Hawtorn outfit. He’s played every game, couple of vest affected, and made me $126,000 to date. Which is more than Newton, Salem or Krakour, and $80,000 more than Anderson. He’s not a massive scorer but still a low be of 15. Would be interested to hear your thoughts on him over the next few weeks as he approaches his used by date.
    Cheers!

    • I’m hearing Sinclair has been dropped back to the Rookie List for Seb Ross!

      • How’s that for timing? I’ll add him to my list of must trades, but thanks for the memories!

  • “It pains me to say it but Brett Goodes’ (Def. $240,000, 11 be AF. $257,600, -6 be DT) recent form indicates that he’s a keeper.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Jack Macrae replaces him on the selection front this Thursday night.”

    Seems legit

    • Lol I thought the same thing. Don’t think him and macrae play the same role tho.

    • He’s been in and out of the side all year no matter how good he’s played. ‘Keeper’ based on last two scores.

      Think of me and how good I am when he’s dropped in final teams on Friday :)

  • Is it worth getting Schade for Salem?

  • How do you know that Glenn isn’t playing? Where are your sources?

    • Take a breath mate. It clearly says Salem for schade. But if your referring to my comment about what is the latest. He was listed as an ankle injury last week

      • Thinking it might be wishful thinking that he’s going to slip straight back into Gold Coast’s line-up. Unfortunately he’s sitting on the pine for me too.

  • Point of order, do note on the spy detective you have two non playing rucks (well I do) so that 17/18 can easily be a 15…

  • Holy Crap Jeppa! There was so many rookies this week and you didn’t miss a beat.

    When it comes to rookie Analysis Jeppa is a God.

  • with cover for salem on my bench, i guess it makes more sense to trade out vandenberg over salem due to the former’s huge BE?

    • Correct. Can’t leak cash of they aren’t playing.

      • 3-4 weeks?? Trade him out asap.

        • can wait another week. would rather a player injured on my bench than a player leaking a truckload of cash.

          • i totally get your point. Whats the point of losing more cash if you already have 22 playing guys on the field? hence its best to trade out someone who will be bleeeding u cash – so you more cash in your bank? makes sense to me. trade out the injured player next week.

      • +1 to this logic

    • You don’t want to be holding injured players through the byes.
      Injuries are often longer out than stated.

  • Jeppa can be Jesus. Coz chook will always be the rook god

  • Soooooo after absorbing the above info is it the thinking that Jake Kelly is a better choice to bring in over Jackson Thurlow to play on your field??

  • Line ball call.

  • Brilliant as always Jeppa.

    I’m fairly repulsed by the def rookies on offer, do you think it would be a terrible play to bring in Byrne this week even though he’s a week or two away? Does he have good JS when fit?

  • Is Ellis Yolmen returning this week Jepp?

  • Love seeing everyone trading out Vandernberg,apart from injury and getting dropped for more than one week, I will be keeping him in my forwards until that final one or two upgrades. Played the three best sides in the last three weeks, so not worried at all. Will score 80+ against the bullies.

  • Personally looking at downgrades all round after this week until the byes. Unfortunately have quite a few rookies on the bench that are pretty well worthless. Will look to get quite a few of them out and get some cash in. Will look at doing a double upgrade the second week of the bye with bringing in hodge and martin. Although I will probably have to have 550k+.

    Also, I am completely fine with playing Oxley, Mcintosh, Yolman, Vandernberg anf bellchambers until the byes.

    • I think after this week, the priority should be cash for the byes. Then go bang and bring in 2 Bye 1 premos, and go from there.

      Rant over, only posted a few things on this site over the year, so needed a binge!

  • All the Port fans on Bigfooty seem to think/hope that Amon will be dropped.

    Seems strange to me but…

  • Thanks again Jeppa. Also cheers on soild advice not to trade Newnes and Rich last week. Saved my team in what was a shocker of a week.
    Is Kamon worth having as a mid9 or 10
    cashing salem in.
    thanks

  • hello,
    I need to downgrade mitch clark to a forward. Any ideas of who to downgrade to.
    thanks