Roy’s Trade Talk – Round 7

Finding the right time to bring in a fallen premium can be much harder than playing the break-even game. Questions like why have they dropped this low in the first place? And how much do I need to see from them to convince me they are back? Are key thought processes in the end decision of whether to pull the trigger?

Today I am going to have a look at three future Fantasy Hall of Famers who are so cheap, it’s almost ridiculous

 

Fallen Premo’s

Tom Rockliff (MID, $521,000): Coming off the back of a world record Fantasy average, Rocky has had a horrible run of luck that has seen him average 60 points per game. Due to this, he has dropped an astonishing $242,000, which must be hard to read for the 9000 coaches who have held onto the GOAT. He played his best game of the year vs the Blues on the weekend, where he managed 19 touches and laid 9 tackles for a score of 95. His break-even is still 170, and despite that fact an in form Rocky could run that down, we are best to wait a couple of weeks for the big guy, despite being so tempting at that price. He is expected to drop another 30K this week, taking him under 500K. He is expected to bottom out next week which will leave him three games leading up to his bye.

Michael Barlow (MID, $515,000): Barlow has averaged 100 points in the 2 games following the mystery 2 game lapse which saw Barlow score 55 and 44 on consecutive weeks. He was on fire in the first quarter on the weekend with 35 points, but slowed to finish on a respectable 92. This week he has a break-even of 116 leading into his game against the Dogs who he scored 134 on in their last encounter, meaning this could be the lowest we see him. Barlow elevated his game to the elite premium status last year by averaging over 110 and he is ripe for the picking this week.

Steve Johnson (MID, $451,000): Stevie has had a horrible start to the season by his standards, highlighted by the fact he started round 4 doing his best Kermit impersonation. His ordinary form over the first 5 weeks has led to him dropping 162K. Last week, he showed signs of his best in the second half, going on to score a season high 117 from 28 touches, 6 marks and 6 tackles, and leaving himself with a break-even of 82. Given his recent history against the Swans with scores of 99, 107, 132 and 94 in his last 4 match-ups, he should have that covered. He has averaged 118 and 108 in the last two year… but has he passed it? Surely not. Very tough call here, but one thing is for sure, he does provide good value and is heavily under-priced.

Players of Interest:

Liam Picken (DEF, $485,000) is embracing a significant role change and his scoring has reflected that. His numbers over the last 3 week rival any premium midfielder, which only adds vale when you consider that Picken is available as a defender, despite the fact he is playing as a pure mid. He has a 3 game average of 125 and a break-even of just 33. He has a tough game this week against the Dockers, but I thought that when he played the Swans in Sydney for 143. The Demons and Giants at Etihad should both provide good returns either way.

Mitch Duncan (MID, $469,000) By his coaches admission, Duncan started the season playing out of position. Since moving back into the midfield, he has been on fire with scores of 133 and 137. The bonus of his slow start, and recent profitable role change is that he has dropped 68K from his asking price and is now a bargain, given he has a break-even of just 25 leading into hi game against the Swans.

Twitter Time

As tempting as it is to get Armitage, I am a fan of chasing value. I do make exceptions if it is someone I plan on making a captain.

Dahl is my choice, he won’t get tagged like that every week. If you are chasing value, I would give Mitchell a run. The job security of these two is poles apart though… Dahl safer.

Within reason, yes. He is the pick of the rucks, without doubt.

I am a fan of Newnes to Mundy, it is a huge upgrade… bigger than it should be after Newnes has been so disappointing. Unfortunately, good downgrade targets are as rare as Newnes 100’s

Tough call, but I’ll go with the guy who has years of runs on the board and plays for the better team. Also a proven scorer vs a tag: Pendles

Two sub 50 scores in three weeks? Toodaloo

Yep, do it!

Both solid options, not overly exciting for you, but a good move.

Cheers guys,

@RoyDT

dtl_rd6

moneyball_saturdayslam

92 Comments

  • Belly> Byrne (FWD) & Newton> Armitage? Clark R2 and Byrne/DPP link…..thoughts?

    • Clark as a R2 is a bad move…….peak scores are in the 80’s and can have the occassional shocker in the 40’s. You need to be upgrading your R2 to someone who can average 90/100+

      • NO. It will only be for a week or two. Once they are back I can start culling some of these other maxed out rooks and get in S Martin…..

  • In terms of Job Security for the Bye rounds, who is a better downgrade Defender, Lever (1 gamer from Crows) or McKenzie (2 gamer from Saints)?

    • Probably Lever as Hartigan is useless and the crows will surely do anything to keep him away from the team.

  • JPK as a semi-fallen premo? I already have Barlow, don’t want SJ and might wait a week on Rocky. JPK averaged 105 last year and gone 93, 100, 136 last 3. He is 547k.

    • Until Sloane wrecked everything, I was bringing him in the week. Feels a bit safer than Barlow and is a pretty reliable (if handball happy) guy.

    • yea around this time of year he starts to become a beast as the swans play a lot better. Also he may be better in the long run as with Mitchell playing in the guts now, he won’t be so tired carrying the midfield.

  • Should I go McIntosh>Picken or McIntosh>Titchell

    • tichell, mitch wallis will be back soon

      • Mitch Wallis coming back will not affect Picken in anyway. Wallis is a tagger and will be used in that role. Beveridge has found Picken’s preferred position as a ball winner and wouldn’t move Picken back to tagging after 3 huge matches from him.

  • Trade newnes or hooker? Need a downgrade to get cash for barlow. already have jkelly.

  • I’m thinking of the following, good or bad?

    James kelly & Van Berlo to Mundy & a rookie (stretch or Glenn)

    • Good trades. TetiKelly is out for 4-6, Mundy is an upgrade. Wait for teams before deciding which rookie to bring in.

  • Tom Mitchell job security has to be improved with the injuries to issac heeney and Jake lloyd ?

    • Heeney was playing HFF/FP and lloyd is more of an outside mid because of his great ball use so i don’t think the injuries affect his job security as they play different positions. But the swans look so much better with mitchell playing so I think he’ll be in the team for a while

      • he’s played 2 straight games and your concerned
        see, this is why TMitchell is off most people’s radars
        personally, I’d still be careful of the threat of Bird

        and J Lloyd is expected to line up this week, just to make things interesting for you

        • or rather touch and go, but did get through the game, so positive signs there

  • Is Yeo worth a punt? Scoring well since his move into the midfield.

    • Was about to ask the same question mate. I have just enough cash to go
      McIntosh > Yeo and Cripps > Barlow, so I’m sticking with those trades at the moment.
      Provided he continues playing in the midfield (and it looks like he will), he should continue doing well and you can pick him up for just 390k in the backline.
      Also helps that he has the R13 bye and his fixture over the next few weeks is looking pretty good.
      If you can fit him into your team, I’d do it, provided your willing to take the risk

  • First trade very simple gives me Mcintosh to Mckenzie unfortunately due to Hodge going whacko i have McKenzie on the ground but i get Hodge back in a couple of weeks

    My current premo structure is 5 in defense 5 in the mids 1 in the ruck and 4 in the forwards.

    I have over 600k to improve one player I could do it on Bellchambers to Martin/Goldstein. McCarthy to Dalhaus. Newton to Armitage/Duncan/Neale. Wouldn’t upgrade defence a second week in a row plus i got Saad/Oxley on negative breakevans.

    I am thinking of duncan in for Newton or the Dalhaus option

    Any thoughts?

    • I think your biggest concern would probably be either McCarthy to Dalhaus or Newton to Armitage/Duncan. After being tagged last week against Saints, I’d wait out another week or two to see how Dalhaus responds and pick up Duncan as a massive POD with a R13 bye and a minimal BE.

      • That was my thought seems to be the number one midfielder at Geelong now, and if he can continue to do that i will love it

        Best thing is it still leaves me with 80k in the bank for another Downgrade/Upgrade next week maybe

        Thanks for that Matt

  • Hadn’t considered Picken, his history sets of massive alarm bells but his role has been good. I’m upgrading McIntosh, currently going to Boyd, would anyone have a convincing argument to save me 75k?

    • Wallis back is the only thing that puts me off, but if you can afford him, I’d take the punt. I’m personally saving the cash and going McIntosh to Yeo instead, with the R13 bye and only 390k, but your call. If Picken keeps pumping out these numbers enjoy the ride!

      • Good point on the Wallis thing, Picken’s rise has been pretty much in line with his absence I think. Might stick with Boyd.

  • wheres the mention of jpk?

    he would be the best premo to trade in this week?? be of 82 and we all know what hes capable of

  • What trades should I look at doing this week? Have 47k in the bank

    McIntosh, hunt, Oxley, newnes, geary, saad( eski, Goodes)

    Lewis, pendles, beams, Ebert, rich, danger, nvb, krak( vandenberg, dumont, freeman)

    Mummy, belly( gorringe)

    Swan, buddy, bont, Schneider, Salem, Gray ( Clark,lamb)

  • Duncan/rocky/Neale/JPK? Which would be best to bring in

    • I’m going Neale possibly just over Duncan.

      All about dat value and these two guys go 130 regularly.

  • Rich -> Thurlow
    McCarthy -> Mitchell

    Thoughts?

    KMac will ton up this week against the pies, heard it from me first.

  • Taking Cash value into account who is the better option out of Grundy 484k Sauce 528K Goldstein 560K swaying towards the cheaper in grundy so i can upgrade my midfield next week. Thoughts plz?

    • I’d say Sauce, proven, not much more than Grundy, will keep on going all season as a lone ruck. Goldy had a bad week and will be cheaper, and Grundy has had a flyer, at the price he is I’d be nervous about him keeping it up.

      • Grundy has Witts backing him up Matt and got 105 last week.

        I got him in for Nic Nat last week and very happy with it.

    • Definitely consider Blicavs.

      Playing like a midfielder for a ruck (27 disposals last week) is a massive advantage.

  • My Dilemma… Bit of help please!

    Trade scenario 1

    James Kelly & Van Berlo into Mundy & a rookie (anderson, Glenn etc) keeping Stanton on pitch

    Scenario 2

    James Kelly & Stanton into Rocky & Barlow/Boak/Dusty…

  • What are people’s thoughts on Boomer?
    His price has bottomed out and I think he started to show some form on the weekend.

  • Who’s the biggest priority to trade ?
    NVB
    Rich
    Mcyntosh
    Bellchambers

  • Cordy as a cash cow whilst Minson is out for the foreseeable future in the forward line by trading out McCarthy? Would use Salem or Clark as emergency.

    • sorry, let me clarify wouldn’t be playing Cordy on the field unless needed:)

    • Cordy is a perfectly valid cashcow. He wont score 90’s every week. His DPP is super handy over byes, (especially if you have belly) so that alone might make it worth it.

      I got him in at his lowest price, and just quietly am stoked at his performance this week.

      • had him in elite but after 2 pathetic performances dropped him for Spencer.

  • Totally cursed this year, i believe i’ve had one luxury trade so far this season and this round is no different.

    Round1 – Sidebottom & Rockliff
    Round2 – Ablett & Burger -> Jacobs (my 1 luxury)
    Round3 – Wines & Bartel
    Round4 – Wallis & Malceski
    Round5 – Hodge & Lewis (would like to have kept lewis, couldnt field a full team tho)
    Round6 – Sloane & CEY (Maybe Adam Saad if his hammy is longer than afew weeks)

    Wanna know who i’m bringing in this week .. just so you can avoid? :P

    Armitage & Mitch Duncan potentially.

  • Rank 1051 $359,000 In The Bank

    DEF: Mundy, Newnes, Ibbotson, Hunt, Saad, Oxley (Byrne, McIntosh )
    MID: Pendles, Fyfe, Beams, Treloar, Parker, Vandenberg, Cripps, *CEY* ( Smith, Krak )
    RUCK: Jacobs, Mumford ( No One Decent )
    FWD: Gray, Swan, Dusty, Bontempelli, Salem, McCarthy ( Tarrant, McInnes )

    CEY I feel won’t be back next week and needs to go. So CEY to Barlow will be 1 trade at this stage anyway. What should my last trade be.

    T.Hunt > Enright
    McCarthy > T.Mitchell
    or something else?

  • who to trade out of mcIntosh, rich, saad and kk?

    • Saad is out this week, if it’s only 1 week hold. McIntosh has an achievable breakeven i would get rid of rich.

  • should i trade botempelli down to duncan? or upgrade to a JPK/ward/treloar? or wait a week for Rockliff’s price to drop and go straight to him? or do a downgrade to upgrade bonts to a pendles/armitage?

    • why do you want to trade bont? 1 bad game, surely you have more problems

      • because he has a BE of 96, and shouldn’t be in the side at the season’s end

        • If he’s in the forwards it’s fine to keep him for a while. He looks like he’ll still score well, Carlton are annoying this year with their tagging. If you really need to trade him I would still wait a week and get rocky.

          • ok thanks and yea he’s in my mids. He’s probably about to peak in price which is why I want to trade him out soon. What about if i moved him to my forwards then moved salem to my backs and then traded mcintosh for mitch wallis if he is named this week?

          • don’t get wallis, his b/e is 82.

  • Thinking McIntosh to Brown (will just sit on bench) and Rich to Mitchell or Goddard? If I go Mitchell I will have enough to go McCarthy to Rocky next week. Mitchell would swing to forwards as F6,

    • What’s your risk appetite? Titch is high risk…clearly not best 21 at the Swannies and only in the starting side due to injuries.

      Perhaps look at other players around that price with better JS?

  • Mundy or Pendls?

  • So I’m thinking of going

    slone and McIntosh out for Barlow and Rockliff leaving me enough cash for and downgrade and upgrade to grey next week what’s people thoughts

    • I would want to wait at least another week for rocky, still yet to get a 100 and anything under 120 he’ll lose over 20k. But if you have to get him in now the trades are good.

      • Yep, agree…hold on Rocky and bring Gray in this week instead if you can.

  • Who should I play on the field out of Jake Kelly and Robbie Tarrant since Adam Saad has been ruled out?

  • who to trade out of hibbo and newnes?

  • worth trading out Prestia?

  • Kelly and Fyfe/Steven or Schade and Pendles/Amritage+50k?

    • Kelly is projected to make 33K this week, Schade 24K

      Fyfe = Pendles

      Ammo > Steven (Steven more likely to be tagged)

      Will leave it with you.

  • Lachie Neale, Tom Rockliff, Steven Motlop, Luke Parker, Mitch Duncan, Tom Mitchell or Steve Johnson?

    • Subjective. My opinion:
      Rocky (but not this week)
      Parker
      Stevie J
      Motlop
      Neale
      Duncan
      Titch

  • Good downgrade targets anywhere?? Please hurry up Dumont!! I wanna turf out Newton or McCarthy this week, but also open to a DEF downgrade also.

    • Have Saad sitting on the pine at the moment because I don’t want to trade him out, which means Schade on the field. Just looking very thin in my mids with Lewis/Glenn on the bench but need to use this last trade as I’ve already done Sloane > Barlow

  • Josh Bruce > Josh Gibson and Kmac > Picken.

  • This is what I’m thinking.. (please read and respond)

    Saad is in my mid right now. I’m thinking of swapping Saad to backs swinging Macintosh into the mids, trading Saad for Byrne, then moving Byrne from defence to forward for salem.

    Then benching Byrne until he’s back (looks like next week) and trading McCarthy to Tom Mitchell.. (or Barlow in the mids.)

    So my trades look like either

    Saad > Byrne & McCarthy > tom Mitchell

    Or

    Saad > Byrne & Macintosh > Barlow.

    Only problem is I already have Fyfe and mundy, so going 3 freo might not be a great decision.

    Thoughts? Seriously spent 2 days working on this, and it’s all I seem to be able to come up with considering not many downgrades coming up.

    I’m a little scared about tom Mitchell too. Could be dropped at ANYTIME but with goodes getting old and Heeney out for a bit it might help his security.

    • if you have two freo mids already don’t go a third. the titch trade is good. titch’s js is safe for the timebeing and if he keeps on producing like he has been he wont get dropped. bird got dropped last week and titch didn’t. titch played and was easily amongst the best 3 players on the field. Longmire cant drop him when he is doing this….

  • m.duncan or t.mitchell

  • Armitage or Pendles?

  • Need som help slash advice
    I want to get rid of HUNT and Talia in the back line or maybe even Mcintosh
    currently looking at Hunt & Talia too H Taylor and Picken

    is this the way to go or is say one premium and an averge layer better like mundy and yeo in???

    So 2 good players or 1 great and 1 average????

    I have 260 in the bank