Calvin’s Captains – Rd. 5

HAVE I GONE CRAZY?Lewis WTF

Ok… strap yourself in and let me explain why I’m not completely sold on Jordan Lewis this week.

Firstly, I’m not trying to be silly and controversial like other sites out there trying to be cool or to be different to try and make a name for themselves. That’s what people tell me anyway…  I only read DT Talk.

I simply examine the stats hard and crunch numbers till I can find what I think will happen.

Positive: Jordan Lewis is a piglet and certainly has the credentials to be a pig in the near future. He has scored 130, 152, 119 and 156 this year and is simply unreal and in ripping form. But is this enough compared to the negatives?

Negative: His highest score against the Roos is only 90 in his last four games against them.

Negative: He played at Etihad twice last year for scores of 90 and 66.

Negative: The Roos have given up just 4×100+ scores in the last 3 weeks.

Negative: The highest score the Kangaroos have given up in the last three weeks is just 113.

Now check out the graphic below. It shows, the top 3 scorers from each team over the last 3 weeks against their opposition. The total of 3 scores from the 3 games are then averaged out (North Average:99).

whatteamsgiveup2

The numbers speak for themselves. The other teams featured there were chosen at random. Other results I found that are relevant to this week are:

Gold Coast give up an average of 118 to the 3 top scorers over the last 3 weeks (Beams and Stefan play them) and Carlton who Collingwood play, they give up an average of 119 against the opposition top 3. So, basically…. The 120 mark is close to average, but not for the Kangaroos.

At the end of the day… THE DECISION IS YOURS … see how I wrote that in capitals (and unlined it), but the numbers are here clearly outline what I think are big concerns for Lewis this week. Is Lewis a jet? YES. But my job is to analyse numbers and based on what you can see here… He’s not my #1 this week.

RUCKING GOOD OPTIONS

Why do we never seriously consider a ruckman as our captain. They are the most consistent players we have. They very very very rarely score 44 (Barlow) or 61 (Sloane), they’re always in the thick of the action and accumulate points all day long.

Stefan Martin is heating up. He has scored 119 and 107 over the last two weeks and scored 122 against the Suns last year. The Suns are bleeding points at the moment and he should dominate. Martin will set you back $9,900 in Moneyball.

Todd Goldstein had 131 last week and scores of 103 and 153 before that. If this was a midfielder doing this, we’d all be crying out for a pig nomination. He nearly made my top 5 this week but just missed based on his score of 80 he scored last year against the Hawks. Goldy is $8,600 in Moneyball.

Then we have Sam Jacobs…. He has averaged 108 over the last 3 weeks and scored 119 and 67 on the Power in the Showdowns last year. Seriously… They’re all rucking good. Big Sauce can be bought for $9,200 in our Sunday Funday contest.

IF NOT LEWIS… THEN WHO?

Righteo… pirate balls are on the line this week aren’t they. I really like Scott Pendlebury this week. In a week of uncertainty, Mr. Reliable is always a safe option. He scored 128 last year against the Blues and averages 115 in his last four against them. He had 118 last week and has been as solid as a rock this year.

Despite a score of 61 last week, Rory Sloane will be back this week. He did score 130, 117 and 112 before that 61 and posted 102, 113 and 111 in his last 3 against the Power.

Dayne Beams should find plenty of the ball against the struggling Suns, just like the GWS midfielders in Shiel (135), Ward (122), Scully (116) and Smith (112) did last week. Beams averaged 107 on the Suns in his last 3 games when wearing the black and white.

Finally, I hate to say it… but Brent Stanton should be good again this week as well. As Warnie made us all aware… Stanton has scored 130 and 115 in his last two games this year and posted 136 and 130 on St Kilda in his last two against them. I makes me sick writing that… but the numbers don’t lie. Massive roughie. It could be worth having a crack with Warnie’s love child in Moneyball on Sunday for $9,200.

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IN A FEW WORDS…

Tom Rockliff Vs Suns – 66 last week isn’t the Rocky we love. But last year he had 190 and 157 on the Suns but we need to see him back to his best before we start putting the ‘C’ back on the pig.

Dustin Martin Vs Geelong – Has a top score of 106 in his last 4 against Geelong.

Dyson Heppell Vs St Kilda – So far this year, Heppell has scored 138, 97, 129 and 111. Last year against the Saints he copped a Curren tag and was held to only 43. Curren, Weller, Newnes will all be lining up to have a go at him this week. He’ll be fine, but he’s just too risky based on last years effort and a guaranteed tag. Still expecting 110+

Lance Franklin Vs WBD – averages 126 at the SCG in his last 5 games and scored 109 on the Dogs last year. Should be massive.

Trent Cotchin Vs Geelong – 85, 119 and 111 in his last 3 games this year… 92 and 62 on Geelong last year. Solid but pass.

Nathan Fyfe Vs Melbourne – Managed 86 last year and hasn’t scored over 100 against the Dees in his last 3.

Luke Parker Vs WBD – Had his second highest score (128) on the Dogs last year but after scores of 82, 61 and 86… he is struggling.

Steven Coniglio Vs West Coast – Had 103 last week and is averaging 118 in his last 3. Running hot. He’s just $8,000 in Moneyball.

Dane Swan Vs Carlton – Has 10 scores over 100 against Carlton in his last 11 games. His 84 last week didn’t quiet back up his 144 from the week before. He’ll be good this week if he plays but I’m rating him at a 50% chance.

Jobe Watson Vs St Kilda – Loves playing the Saints and has averaged 105 on them over his career. They’re one of his favourites to score against.

Luke Hodge Vs Kangaroos – he had 104 on the Roos last year, his best against them in his last 4.

Michael Bar-low Vs Melbourne – 44 and 55 in his last two games is nothing short of terrible. Is he injured? What’s the deal here? He does have great numbers against the Demons though of 134, 116 and 149. He must bounce back this week.

Adam Treloar Vs West Coast – Didn’t play against them last year and only had 67 and 66 prior to that.

Brendon Goddard Vs St Kilda – Scored his first ton (113) last week for the year and managed 96 when he played the Saints last which was back in 2013.

Robbie Gray Vs Adelaide – The Bulldogs scored 7×100+ scores against the Crows last week, the most from any team for the week. He scored 84 and 86 last year on the Crows and only has 1×100+ score on them in his career 9 games against them. Very unlikely to score over 100 again this week based on what we see here.

Good luck this week with whatever you decide to do! Twitter: @CalvinDT

pendlesround5

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71 Comments

  • I only have Lewis in the top 5……
    Other options are Heppell,and Barlow.

    • Heppell up against Weller who could keep him under 100, Barlow playing Demons who are stingy with fantasy points.

      • If Weller plays, as he was dropped last week (and Newnes was tagging)

        And WAtson seems to have his measure in the tagging stakes (not sure why imo, I’d be tagging the Vaccuum myself)

    • Lewis should still get around 100, just dont expect him to go 150+. Barlow is too out of form to be captaining, no matter what his previous numbers say

    • +1 only have Lewis from that list

  • Nice work Calvin. I agree with your argument against having Lewis captain, but he is in hot form and I will be staying with him until he lets me down.

    • Yeah spot on mate – many are with you on this one

      • Agree Lewis probably will be down somewhat this week. BUT, he has to drop 20pts on his average for anyone else who scores their average to score more (Thompson). Personally, I can’t go against someone with an average 19.3pts better than everyone else.

    • I’ve got Lewis too.
      Don’t think he’ll crack 100 this week.
      He’ll get Basti running with him.
      Basti kept a white hot Selwood below 100 last week..
      Think I’ll put the C on Buddy this week..

  • Damn you Calvin. Had Stefan as captain since Sunday night and thought I would be the only one. Predicting a 140+ against Smith this weekend.

  • Don’t know if I’ll be able to make myself to go with Sloane after what he dished up on Sunday

    • He did get a pretty heavy shoulder in the face by Bont during the early minutes of that clash (about 1:40 into the highlights if you catch it)

      Sloane’s record reads:
      12/14 tons at Adelaide Oval with a low of 87,
      it’s basically points in the bag
      BUT I must stress that I don’t think Sloane quite has the ceiling yet (similar to Fyfe) but are incredibly consistent – but I did take his 126 a couple of weeks back as C

      • I was watching and saw him get hit, however I do not want to get burnt again as so far this year I have had 2 captains score 61. Lewis however is yet to let me down.

  • No love for Jack Steven Calvin? Might go Bang against bombers.

    • He could, I wouldn’t back it in. Bombers won’t give up too much this week you wouldn’t think.

      • Just thinking bombers will win comfortably and won’t really care about him racking up 35+ touches

    • C’mon bruv, let Steven remain our PODs, He’s been really consistent this year despite being on 80 at 3 quarter time against the blues and only finishing with 92. But still he has been a jet for me so far pumping out that 138 a couple weeks ago. Such an excitement to watch him play as a POD.

  • On those numbers, best to avoid bringing in Heppell ’til next week? Thinking I’ll grab Dahlhaus instead.
    Stanton Cap’n

  • Which trade should I do?

    Lumumba – Everitt
    Barlow – Fyfe

    OR

    Lumumba – Everitt
    Barlow – Boyd

    OR

    Barlow – Fyfe
    Parker – Boyd

  • Calvin who will be your captain for this round atm?

  • Very tempted to put the C on Buddy this week, could go 140+ like Roughie did recently.
    Looking at these numbers I may well hold off on trading Heppell in for 1 more week as well

  • How can Beams be in the top 5 atm?

  • Looks good to wait a week for Hepp, but gotta go C on Lewis over his form, can’t dog him like that

  • I’d look at the weather forecast for Melbourne this weekend and be very wary of picking a captain on the East Coast that plays outdoors. This means Pendlebury.

    Not one mention of the weather, ever. Makes me laugh and enjoy my 6k ranking even more.

    • Friday: early fog then sunny. Saturday: possible shower (30%; i.e. not much actual rain). Sunday: partly cloudy (source: BOM). Not sure what you’re on about Milansta, unless something’s different by Friday.

    • Haha – as Tim said with comment – the weather isn’t that bad at all for the weekend. Worse in Sydney on Saturday arvo (20-40mm) which would make me wary of Buddy. In saying that, the weather doesn’t actually have too much effect on Pendles. I’d feel confident of him knocking up 110+. Safe captain for mine.

      • Pendles seems really consistent this year (is actually ranked 5th of all players averaging over 90 – behind M Boyd, Prestia, S Thompson and Viney)

        that said though, being consistent means that he’s good for a 95-115 score, but lacks that ceiling (2 TeamOfTheWeek appearances last year confirm that theory)

        • my views on Calvin’s 5:

          Pendles – really consistent, but probably lacks the ceiling

          Sloane – the next Pendles DT-wise, 12/14 career tons at AO with a high of 130 (hit twice, the only 2 above 120)

          Smartin – okay… GoldCoast have only once conceded 7 tons from their last 26 games to ruckman (with 5 of which passing 110) – it’s RISKY, but can pay off with Smartin scoring well (and not Leuenberger in the team)

          Lewis – actually Calvin speaks some sense – which the top scorer may well be Lewis, North haven’t conceded many tons (or leaked heavily, Tex aside) this season – might be the week for a POD

          Beams – GC do leak to midfielders, but is Beams the top-scorer, could be a great option if he does (or Redden? or injured-Rocky? or other?)

    • Oh – and a 6K ranking isn’t the kind of number to be bragging about… I think Calvin might even be ranked higher than that at the moment! I’m 1152nd for the record.

    • Admittedly I’m having my worse ever start to a season, but 6k and you’re giving it the big un!!? You must have very low expectations of yourself

    • Some of the biggest scoring games of all time occur in the wet. I remember one at SS back two years ago… biggest scoring game ever

  • You missed my point.

    You..never…talk…about..the..weather

    it pissed down rain last week and not a peep before lockout.

  • 6k ranking and 11.9 million in team value btw.

    I’m more proud of the 2nd number and gonna use it to good effect to climb up the rankings faster.

  • TheTraders – ranked 11th in my league.

    • They made that team like 2 weeks before lockout as Warnie said they are all ranked higher than you

  • milansta, knobhead.

  • The Traders team, oh yeah… I must remember to update that each week. ;)

  • Love a Sunday arvy captain to roll right past my opponent… banking on Heppell to tackle his way past the ton under the roof.

  • Sticking with Lewis. People never seem to get along on these articles.

  • Im going heppell, time for him to break his drought against the saints!

  • How does Heppell play in droughts? Sorry… bed time! ;)

    • One of your bes… ok no it wasn’t. Warne dawg save that sort of effort for the pod!! Haha

  • Hey Warne dogs what have bee your 4 scores

    • From captains? Let’s not go there… haha. I started with Ablett in a pre-full lockout panic, then have locked Lewis each week after.

      If I didn’t start with Gaz, like I wasn’t going to when I revealed my team on the Thursday of the lockout starting – with Lewis as my captain – I would be well inside the top 1000 and my swagger would be as big as Calvin’s after getting that Beams call right a couple of weeks ago!

  • Lewis C, Stanton VC.
    I’m ranked about 5200 places above Milansta.
    Let me tell you all about how fast I ran the first kilometer in a marathon…

    • Very good point! However in the world of two trades per week (which I certainly haven’t mastered or really understood everything about yet), getting things right early is more important.

      We’re still finding our place in the pack over these first few weeks, but if you’ve got a pretty decent team that is making cash – as Milansta says – then I’d prefer to be around 1K over 6K.

      There’s a lot of miles to go!

      • I’m a chef, so no computers while I work.
        I basically set my team at about 1.30pm on Friday, and hope there are no late changes etc.
        If there are, I have no way of reacting to them.
        It’s in the hands of the gods!

  • How is Ebert’s form in the showdowns?

  • Just a little smokey and it is risky, but Franklin is up against the doggies in great form. He’s playing more time running up the ground from what I’m seeing and is averaging around 3 goals a game. The last 2 weeks he’s scored over 110.. He could destroy the doggies with 5+ goals and 20+ disposals.

  • Many have been asking who I’m going as captain this week….

    I always pick my captain off the order of my top 5 and as I don’t have Pendles or Sloane… I will be going with the big man Stefan Martin

  • Thoughts on Josh Kennedy (WCE) as captain playing GWS kicked 10 last time another big bag on the way?

  • Stanton would have to be a shoe-in for 135+. Back under the roof against the Saints and Heppell or Jobe will get the tag.