Daniel’s Dilemma – Jobe Watson

jobewatson_injBefore I start dissecting my first ever dilemma for DT Talk, Jobe Watson had approximately 59,000 owners before lockout last week. We now see that this figure has dramatically decreased over the last couple of days as coaches rally to trade injured star.

Unfortunately, Jobe Watson finished the game on the bench with a quad complaint halfway through the last quarter putting the heart in the mouths of the many owners.

Watson, who went 5 weeks consecutively without a ton, turned around his disappointing form to justify to the fantasy football world just how good he really is. With scores of 149, 116 and 114 he was looking like a ‘must have’ in your midfield.

The 15 point win over GWS leaves Essendon just outside the top 8, but the triumph for the red and black ultimately infuriates the owners of the former Brownlow medallist.

As per usual, we shouldn’t be distorted at the fact that another one of our true stars have toppled to a heart breaking injury, with Watson set to be sidelined between 8-10 weeks.

With this in mind we need to make a decision on a replacement for the midfielder and at a price of $545,001, a wealth of options are at our disposal.

Hopefully you have some cash in the bank, which could enable you to pick up some of the inform gun midfielders that are currently gracing the fields around Australia.

Tom Rockliff ($624,623) should be your first on your Round 13 trade wish list. The Brisbane star comes at a price but in AFL Fantasy you pay for quality. Averaging a monster 124 points, he is your go to man and has GWS, Fremantle and North Melbourne over the next 3 rounds.

Only costing you $79,622, this trade is an ideal one that doesn’t include any warranty: Rocky just never quits.

If the back pocket is not as bulging as much as you would like, someone like Steve Johnson (537,336) is also a good choice. Ever since the hard tag he received from Crowley, he has struggled to maintain the blistering form he showed earlier in the season, recording a whopping 168 vs West Coast in Round 4.

You may lose money this week as his breakeven again seems unreachable, but the gains will outweigh the losses in the long term. With St.Kilda, Gold Coast and Essendon approaching the Cats, Johnson looks set to record some big numbers sooner rather than later.

If an upgrade is not preferred or reachable, a downgrade to some performing midfielders in the competition could also grant you the same success. David Zaharakis ($505,256) is in some incredible form at the moment. He has averaged 131 over the last 3 rounds and getting tagged does not seem to be the problem for the 24 year old.

Zaharakis was up and down last year, ending with an average of 82. He is capable of putting together some huge scores and with Melbourne, Adelaide and Geelong coming up it seems his rich vein in form may continue.

Another possible downgrade option could be Andrew Swallow ($445,460). This trade is financially rewarding, earning you $99,541 but the risk may not be greater than the reward. A troubling Achilles injury sidelined Swallow for the first half of the season, but due to some courageous VFL performances ‘Spitter’ returned to the North set up. Starting slowly, Swallow has put together 2 tons in a row and does seem like the Swallow of 2013 who took the AFL by storm early on.

Averaging 102 and 94 over the last two seasons, we know he is capable of going big. Whether he returns to this type of form is inevitable, what we do know is that obtaining Swallow now may end in heart break.

Whatever you do this week, make sure you have a clear plan in mind. Don’t go wasting your money on a replacement that won’t improve your team. By this stage of the season the pretenders should well and truly be gone, with only the true stars remaining.

Discuss the Watson trade in the comments below.

Read Roy’s Trade Talk on AFL.com.au and discuss other trades and selection issues in My Team.

Who will you trade Watson to?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...

41 Comments

  • look at barlow pendles swan ebert rocky goddard SJ jelwood if you want quality
    look at redden treloar zaharakis libba if you want a smokie
    look at JPK Kjack or dannebry if you want to jumpn on board syndeys form
    look at a.swallow, Dylan shiel, griffen if you want cheap

  • Umm… Barlow?

  • i am looking at trading watson together with polec for goddard and treloar, as i have 100k stashed, getting two certified premiums is a must for me to complete my midfield. this also me the option of upgrading cotchin to a more reliable barlow if necessary….ohh an it leaves me with $200 or thereabouts, so have just enough for that trade.

  • I can’t even get rid of him this week, but next week it will be him and wines getting the upgrade

  • I like Steve Johnson, but with a BE of 154… I think I might wait on him a week. Although, if you listen to Calvin, he may score 200 this round. Barlow is who I’m after.

    This will be an interesting trade. I’ll add a poll to the article with some of the calls that I’ve heard from people on the site and Twitter.

    • I’m jumping on despite the BE, want this week to be the one where I complete my midfield once. and. for. all. *cue Stevie J career ending injury this weekend*

      • Yeah – I’m still toying with SJ. Barlow makes sense to me at the moment tho. However, with heaps of other doing it… I think I want a POD.

        • Yeah I brought in Barlow last week, looks good. Definitely a few good PODs out there, but I’m worried that given how many Jobe owners there are, pretty much all premium midfielders averaging over 100 will probably go up significantly in ownership

        • Agree with both comments. Personally I’m going Barlow this week. He has a reachable BE and unlikely to lose any cash. Whilst SJ has st kilda @ skilled the BE is too much for me this week. Rather just hold and upgrade Tyson to SJ next week as the extra cash is needed to upgrade FWD stocks.

          Re POD, SJ is still owned by 17% of teams twice as many as Barlow right now ;)

        • Going by the poll, it doesn’t look like Barlow will be that much of a POD.

    • I’m getting SJ, could definitely get that breakeven and I already have Barlow.
      Interesting there’s no Montagna in the poll? Tag a problem but could be an amazing unique

      • He’s on my radar but Monty also has a huge BE and seems he’ll be available soon at $500k. Might still be bothered by the hip injury. Would be a big smokey if he comes good.

  • Libba hasnt gone under 110 in 6 weeks. With griffen back he will he uber by end of year. Get. On. now.

  • Hey Dan – nice article mate! Having the options laid out in front of me (from another perspective as well) means I can now think clearly about what I want to do.

    Great debut!

    • Yes, awesome article, would be a fantastic addition to DT talk and would like to see articles like this weekly… Great job.

    • Thanks Zeus, no problem mate. Look our for next weeks article as well if you have another fantasy headache!

  • i will be getting barlow and johnson in the next 2 weeks. Who should i get out of those 2 in this week?????????

    • SJ is going to be cheaper next week unless he goes over 154 this week. barlow will be more expensive unless he goes under 97. i think that the most likely scenario is that barlow goes up in price next week, and SJ comes down in price. If you trade in barlow now, then SJ next week, youd probably save yourself about 20k. (this is what i’m doing)

    • Neither trade is a bad one IMO. The only thing that comes into play is the money loss which Will has explained perfectly above. Both are great options though so you cant go wrong!

    • cheers fellers

  • in need of some help..
    i’ve got one more trade for the round
    should i upgrade langdon or suckling or franklin???
    and to who??
    got $208,000 in the bank

    • Too hard to comment without seeing the rest of your team

    • I order of importance I would go;
      1. Langdon to Bartel etc.
      2. Franklin to Gray/Danger/Harvey
      3. Suckling to Hanley or Brodie Smith

  • I’m up in the air.
    I can get rid of Watson and polec for redden and swallow and have 22 premos. Or I can trade Watson to Rocky , downgrade polec to C beams and upgrade him next week. Thoughts plz guys. I’m stuck ATM

  • my head says barlow, but my DT instincts are going nuts about swanny being priced at $530k!! 110 avg vs a 102 avg, it should be a no brainer… but swanny….he has to go bang soon right?

    barlow ownership is still only 10% vs swanny 22%, so POD factor is there? geez, talk about the jobe DILEMMA

    • Averages 111 at mcg this year but hasn’t scored a ton away from home and kicked only 9 goals for the year with 4 coming in one game.

      His disposals are declining as well the last couple of years.
      2012-35 per game
      2013-31 per game
      2014-25 per game

      His lowest fantasy average since 2008. He’s not the head pig anymore but still a handy average over 100.

  • AMAZED WTF – Am I playing the same game as everyone else – not even mentioned in DT Talk list above for possible trade sor Watson – How come no ones talking about Levi greenwood what a POD and cash to be made 109 on weekend (same as Barlow and he got mention in legends?- WTF?)3 round average 129.33 and 5 game average of 119.8 went up some 28k last round (when I got him in) still priced at $520k and has B/E of 66 – upcoming opponents Crows, Melb & Brisbane. His role has been changed only scored udner 100 once (91) in last 5 games) he wont get the Kerridge tag they will go to Del-santo, or Gibson or Harvey.

    • Very interesting POD, you’re right.

    • Jesus, calm down mate.

    • Enjoy the 70’s he will get when the likes of Barlow, SJ and the pig himself go 120+

      • Well I have Stevie J, Beams and Goddard and did not enjoy the 70’s they got on the week end. Oh and Greenwood has a 3 round ave of 130 so it’s not like he can’t go 120+. Priddis is another player to jump on for consistency, he has only 1 score all year below 97, is currently on a 3 round ave of 126 and has Gold Coast and St Kilda next two weeks.

  • Is it too much to have Beams and Pendles and now bring in Swanny for Jobe? I reckon the pig is about to go go bang! Also already have Rocky, Ablett, Jelwood, Barlow

    I jumped on Kane Mitchell after his first game who has gone up $100k in 4 games. That’s where I’m hoping to upgrade to SJ.

  • Nice article Daniel, some very good advice, Need more Articles like this

  • good article mate, my dilemma is brent harvey or andrew swallow? harvey has been killing it this year and is an important DPP link to the forward line, is it too risky going for him?

    • Thanks Adam,
      If I was in our position I would have to stick with Harvey. Going Swallow is risky but I would keep close tabs on him during the next couple of rounds. He is back to full fitness and was on fire last weekend v Richmond. With Adelaide, Melbourne and Brisbane in the next 3 weeks though he may go bang, but the class of Harvey is to hard too ignore. Jump on Swallow at your own risk!

  • what do you guys reckon?
    (1) Watson/Polec> A Swallow/Barlow+50k OR/
    (2) Watson/Polec> Goddard/Treloar ?

    • Depends what you can do with the 50k. If you plan to upgrade an under performing player in your backline with the cash then go for #1. But if the money wont go to any use in the future then #2 is a great option. At this point in time though, number 1 seems like a good choice.

  • Glass is a legend