The Fantasy Analyzer: Premium Perfect

1992_dream_team

Chuck Daly (central), knew all to well what a team full of stars looked like!

This is without doubt the best time of the year. Most fantasy sides have a best 22 full of premiums and are looking to what the future may hold, either for an inordinately high rank or taking home the league cup! Today I’m going to throw up some advice on what is the best way to go about bettering your side from a full set of 22 premiums.

 

 

Early Thoughts

There are two simplistic ways of looking at how to better your 22 premium set-up. One is to upgrade the most unreliable premium, to someone in form. An example of this would be trading Nick Riewoldt to Brent Harvey. The other option to strengthening your side is to build a strong bench so that you can ward off the consequences of a late out.

Hypothetical Trades

 Riewoldt to Harvey & Swan to Rockliff (Paying at $170,000)

Langford to Jaensch & Hallahan to Adams (Paying at $217,000)

Sideways Trading Strategy

Screen Shot 2014-06-05 at 5.04.45 pm

Under the hypothetical move above, we must first consider what this trade is likely to produce for us points wise. Thus we need to determine a number of factors including; draw, recent average against upcoming opponents, recent average, seasonal average, break evens and the likelihood of injury/suspension/resting. Now given there isn’t much reason to provide an extreme analysis about a hypothetical move, I will give rough predictions in each case, but these considerations should very much be high in the thinking process of trade planning, especially from here on in.

Riewoldt and Swan are two players who started the season priced at the height of their classifications, and have since gone on to average 92.4 and 101 points per game respectively. In their last five matches, that average drops for the Saints captain to 69.2ppg and grows to 109.8 for the x-Brownlow medallist. The trade targets are Harvey and Rockliff, who are enjoying fantastic seasons averaging 101.5 (9.3ppg better than Riewoldt) and 127.4 (26.4ppg better than Swan). In their last five they average 103.2 (34ppg better than Riewoldt) and 126.6 (16.8ppg better than Swan). So in essence we are looking at;

Riewoldt (Seasonal average+Last 5 game average/2) + Swan (Seasonal average+Last 5 game average/2)

= 80.8+105.4=186.2

v

Harvey (Seasonal average+Last 5 game average/2) + Rockliff (Seasonal average+Last 5 game average/2)

= 102.3+127=229.3

“Difference equals 43.1 points per game”

 Bench Upgrading

Screen Shot 2014-06-05 at 5.06.16 pm

Now under the current hypothetical move above, Langford to Jaensch and Hallahan to Adams, it’s far more difficult to get a reading on what their worth to the team will be. Using the method of, “Seasonal average+Last 5 game average/2” to extrapolate a predicted average, the Langford to Jaensch move would create an extra 24ppg (69ppg from Langford as opposed to Jaensch’s 93ppg, disclosing the injury enforced 45) whilst Hallahan to Adams would also create an extra 8ppg (72 as opposed to 80ppg) plus the added dual position link. It’s difficult to determine the worth of these moves and the worth of the dual position link without the view of hindsight, as the moves could prove worthless if you have a perfect run without any form of ailment to any of your onfield stars. Nonetheless this rarely, if ever occurs, so the expectation is that this move will have strong long term value.

Final Analysis

It’s difficult to conclude in this situation, as all good questions should be. It’s a risk v reward approach, as most fantasy sports are. For every three weeks of having no injury, suspension or late out issues, the sideways moves should prove to be the best moves for strengthening your side, equating to 129.3ppg better. But if we are relying on our back up every two weeks, the upgraded bench may prove to be the strongest move as not only would it allow for you to swap around the upcoming fixtures (an example being potentially benching Johnson in Round 21 against the Crowley tag), but it also gives you peace of mind that a; My player will be picked each and every week and b; I can expect a strong score from my player. It’s definitely a horses for courses approach and I don’t think there’s any real right or wrong answer. Personally because I don’t own the likes of Rockliff and Harvey, I’d look to sideways my under performing keepers because I think that may be hurting me more long term, but all it takes is for an Ablett+Hallahan late out to have the strong bench working in my favour big time! Anyway let me know what you think in the comments below!

Tough to pass up on Rockwiz

It’s tough to pass up on Rockwiz!

Highest priority: Sideways Premiums or Upgrade Bench?

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So what do you guys think? Remember to give me a follow on twitter @B_Gogos and tune into AFL Fantasy Radio Live at 7PM this Friday! Ask questions using the #FantasyFM and we’ll answer them in the lead up to the game and then continue with a fantasy commentary during the game! Good luck with all your fantasy sides this weekend!

31 Comments

  • What to do with Scott Selwood? He’s been so bad I don’t even consider him premo anymore.

    I can upgrade him to Rocky or Barlow but would be fielding Hallahan for 1 or even 2 more weeks. Or I could hold him and upgrade KKolo in defence for 6 premiums in the backline.

    • I wish I had my time over, I’d pick someone else

      as far as I’m concerned, he’s alright as a M7 and can stay while I upgrade my side, if he’s still in come that time, then I can decide whether to upgrade him or not (if I have trades left)

    • Yea I don’t consider him a premo either mate, personally I’d look to move him on. It’s been a role change which has hurt his output, and they’re always hard to overcome.

    • Can’t believe you have held him for so long, he became Macrae in round 5 for me!

  • The above is all well and good but if you have been devastated by injury and suspensions like my side I am still about 4/5 weeks having all premo’s. Plenty of money in the bank and cash cows getting fat but been killed by injuries :-/

    • Very true mate, not everyone is in the same position obviously. The article still holds value for further down the line though mate. Unlucky with the injuries mate, hopefully the bad luck this time around equals a blessed run in 2015 (Y)

  • Just save more cash and do Hallahan to Rockliff.

    • I still have Langford/Ellis at D6/7, next week in comes Simpson then all Premiums.

  • I’m closish to a premo side. I have Langford as D6, who is definitely not a premo. Then I have guys that could go either way. Hooker, who has dropped off quite a bit, and Taylor Walker will either be a keeper or a stepping stone depending how he goes over the next few weeks. Will first concentrate on upgrading Langford, then upgrade Hooker (unless he starts scoring 100s again)

  • This happened last year in our league with the guy who finished 8th winning the league. All the top teams were improving their bench player predominantly, whereas he sideways traded to have a great on field team but useless reserves. He obviously had a bit of luck with no injuries/late withdrawals but did show the value of maximising on field points

  • Who show I drop first, Langford of langdon?????????

    Then who should i get in, out of Hibberd and Simpson??????? should i save cash and go hibberd?

  • I have two options this week.

    Trade Langford to Jaensch who plays Fremantle, Kolodjashnij on bench.
    Downgrade Langford, play Kolodjashnij on field vs. Sydney and double upgrade next week.

    Which seems the better move?

  • is shiels worth a punt?

    • howdy Lachlan, rather than just say no, I’m going to say maybe?
      Statistically he goes like this-: ave 98, L3 101, l5 101,Ave dev 6.1, L3 & L5 Dev 3.5. Is he a punt? No. He is mr consistency along with hibberd, he is equal to the 4 top defenders, and equal to the top 6 fwds, but he’s a midfielder. If you have a mid on field currently who is not scoring 100 per game, or need a reliable bench option for when your mids get rested etc, then liam shiels could be worth the punt. 448k + BE 66 will also make 3 weeks of $ rises for stepping stone option

  • What should I do?

    1. Langford to Howard
    2. Langford to litherland
    3. Jake loyd to o’brien keep Langford
    4. Hallahan to o’brien keep loyd and Langford

  • What should I do?

    1. Langford to hibberd
    2. Langford to simpson
    3. langdon to hibberd
    4. langdon to simpson

  • Good article once again Ben cheers
    I am surprised most teams have a full 22 premiums as you suggest
    Be interested to know if I’m in the minority
    I still have 2 more to complete my on field 22

    • Most people have Suckling at D6 still, is he classified as a premo? Thats upto each person to decide.

      • Agree
        Also many have Tyson Langdon Tex to be upgraded still
        I have Cloke and am not prepared to call him a premium at this stage

      • I do classify Suckers as a premium. Outside of Bartel, Simpson and McVeigh, upgrading Suckling would not lead to much really.

    • i’m sure some guys have different interpretation of premo

  • What! People have a full team of premiums!…. oh yeah some people havent had every possible Injury :/

    Anyone beat Barlow, Hickey, Sitchel, Windgard (twice), Titchel, Fasolo, Enright, Caddy, Mumford, Jaensch, Swan…

  • I have Jacobs in ruck and no cover on the bench, do I trade him!? Worried that he will be a late withdrawal has anyone heard anything about him?

  • None of their emergencies they named were ruckman so i assume he would be ok?
    And playing in perth i assume they will fly out friday so should know before lockout if he boards the plane

  • Great Article!

    One important point you missed is cashcow earning potential, if you upgrade your bench that is one less position you could earn cash. Excess cash in the kitty by the end of the season > upgraded bench because if you have a terrible injury (score of 1) or you want to chase the best of the best (dont have Rocky or player x who is smashing it) the price differential could be too high.

  • McKernan named is a slight concern for Jacobs owners. He is certainly capable of sharing the ruck load with Jennings. Time will tell, but Jordan is right, if Sauce gets on that plane I’m going to assume he’s playing