Name: Paul Seedsman
AFL Fantasy: $429,500
AFL Dream Team: $432,900
Bye Round: Round 8 (shared with ADL, GEE, NTH, GCS, RIC)
2013 Average: 79.3
2013 Games Played: 16
Predicted Average: 91
Why should I pick him?
They say that statistics can be used to prove anything. They say stats can often lie. I find that sometimes you just need to dig deeper to find the answer… At a glance, Seedsman doesn’t seem to offer much value, save for a little boost in job security and a pinch of natural improvement. Let’s dig deeper then, shall we?
Seedsman averaged 89.9 in his last 12 games this season. He was forced to earn his place in Collingwood’s 22 this year, evidenced by being overlooked for R1, green vested in R2 and subsequently left out in R3 altogether. By the time he found his feet in R7, he’d played four games at a 47-point pace – heavily affecting his season splits. This alone means he’s about 10 points (or roughly $60k) underpriced as it is.
From Round 7 onwards, Seedsman produced 21.5 touches and 7.1 marks per game. These are huge stats, and not figures taken from a small sample size, either. Collingwood love getting it into Seedsman’s hands for the run and carry, then ultimately onto his surprisingly penetrative pegs. Predominantly a forward/wingman in his junior days, he’s been groomed over the last two years into becoming a deadly halfback-flanker, and he certainly showed he was up to the task in 2013. But let’s get back to the stat that sparked this point – only two other players in the league put up 21+ touches and 7+ marks per game this season: Ibbotson and Enright. Both averaged over 88 points this season.
He’s currently just 4.4% owned in the Drawing Board feature. He’ll be unique. Brand name recognition is low with Seedsman, a late-round flyer at the 2010 National Draft and a gradual improver in Collingwood’s drip-fed youth system. With all the hype centred around the newly-crowned DPP’s in the backline this year, there’s a high chance that if Seedsman breaks into the top 10 in defence (as I expect he will), you could be one of the few who benefit from it initially.
Even without getting too tied up in the numbers, Seedsman oozes potential. Chief rebounder in Heath Shaw has been moved on, his sidekick in Lumumba is expected to move into a more permanent midfield role, and even Daisy Thomas (it’s no coincidence that when Dale was ruled out with an ankle injury post-R7 after a couple of games down back, that’s when the Pies turned to Seedsman in that loose flanker role) isn’t there to fill the void in defence. Take note of his role over the NAB Cup, but the expectation is that this will be Seeder’s job to lose.
Why shouldn’t I pick him?
There are a couple of high value options in defence this year, such as David Swallow (priced at 70), Matt Suckling (priced at 58), who might command first crack at the ‘Underpriced Premo’ selection in your backline this season. I’m seeing a lot of set-and-forget types making the backbone of the defence, supplemented with a value pick or two, and this has always been a sound strategy. Seedsman might just not be your first cab off the rank.
As a defender, his average ceiling is quite limited – I can’t see him travelling at much more than 95, even with maxed out Disposal and Mark stats. As someone who’s averaged just 2.2 tackles a game over his career, I wouldn’t expect that to increase much if he’s a regular in the Back 6, and this will likely cap his output like it does for most defenders.
Honestly, that’s about it. A forward tag could come into play if he starts to dominate, but it’s certainly not going to stop him reaching his potential in early 2014.
Deck of DT Rating.
QUEEN – Collingwood love moving the football quickly and plentifully, and with some familiar faces out of the backline, all signs point to Seedsman getting as much of it as he can handle. He surpassed 30 touches twice last season (for 148 and 121 point scores), so his ability to attract the footy isn’t in question. With little downside to his 2014 prospects, Seeder is shaping as a low-risk, high-reward option in defence, particularly if the Pies continue to utilise his skills in a Birchallesque rebounding role.
Let’s not forget what Sam Mitchell, Jimmy Bartel and Kade Simpson have in common – yep, they’ll all be DEF eligible next year, but they’ll also be on the wrong side of 30. There’s a reason they’re all chasing cheap kicks in the back half, and that’s because age is catching up with them. Seedsman, however, is is on the way up – realistic worst case scenario, he matches his 2013 output. Best case scenario – he’s the break-out defender of the year.
At this stage, I’m taking the punt. Will you?
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