Hindsight is a wonderful thing

griffinfeatHindsight is a wonderful thing. Looking back on our lives I am sure every single one of us would have done something different at one time or another; tried harder at school, bought a different type of car, travelled more, associated with different people, drank less on the weekend etc.

After opening up the AFL Fantasy website this week and seeing my season ranking languishing around the 20,000 mark I thought to myself ‘what could I have done differently with this team?’ so I decided, with the help of the superb ‘Nix Dream Trader’ and the ‘Footywire.com’ website, to see what sort of team I could put together – with the benefit of hindsight.

Now if I was to tell you that prior to round 1 you could put together a team that at the end of round 10 could:

–          Be leading the competition by a staggering 2,579 points

–          Have over $350,000 in the kitty

–          Have 21 players ready to take the field in Round 11 (subject to round 11 teams)

–          Have only undertaken 2 legitimate ‘upgrades’

–          Not have Dane Swan, Dean Cox or Buddy Franklin at any point during the season

And most ambitious of all could have won the highest scoring team of the round 7 times in the first 10 rounds!!!

Would you think all of the above was possible – I didn’t – but here is the proof!

 

STARTING TEAM:

DEFENDERS           

B Goddard      $501,300
G Birchall        $455,400
P Hanley         $425,300
C Dixon          $304,800
B Gibbs           $473,300
B Goodes        $121,300
D Terlich         $102,700
L Stevenson    $108,500

MIDFIELDERS        

K Cornes         $473,000
B Stanton        $548,900
M Barlow        $495,300
A Swallow      $528,800
T Boak             $431,300
R Douglas       $372,600
O Wines          $156,700
J O’Meara        $108,500
M Jones           $102,700
M Evans          $108,500

RUCKS         

M Kruezer       $403,700
T Goldstein     $407,300
M Blicavs        $108,500
M Daw            $108,500

FORWARDS

N Reiwoldt     $441,400
J Westhoff      $394,800
J Bartel            $492,700
M Stokes         $338,700
J Kennedy       $272,300
J Neade           $108,500
S Dwyer          $89,300
B Macaffer      $132,600

Total Spend     $9,117,200
Salary Cap       $9,139,000
Cap Left          $21,800

 

Round 1:

Captain: Andrew Swallow
Emergencies: Terlich, Stevenson, Jones, Evans, Blicavs, Daw, Dwyer, Macaffer
Cap left: $21,800
Weekly Score: 2317 (would win weekly prize)
Highest ‘real’ weekly score:    2242
Points in front: 75

Round 2:

Trades:            None required – we are killing it!
Captain            Justin Westhoff (will dominate GWS – wait and see!)
Emergencies:   Terlich, Stevenson, Jones, Evans, Blicavs, Daw, Dwyer, Macaffer
Cap left: $21,800
Weekly Score: 2426 (would win weekly prize)
Total Score: 4743
Highest ‘real’ weekly score: 2274
Highest ‘real’ season score: 4362
Points in front: 381

Round 3:

Trades: Dixon, Kruezer out, S Burgoyne, Leuenberger in
Captain: Justin Westhoff (again? – Yep!)
Emergencies: Goodes, Stevenson, O’Meara, Evans, Blicavs, Daw, Dwyer, Macaffer
Cap left: $125,500
Weekly Score: 2441 (would win weekly prize)
Total Score: 7184
Highest ‘real’ weekly score: 2276
Highest ‘real’ season score: 6411
Points in front: 773

Round 4:

Trades: Hanley, Bartel out, Hibberd, S Johnson in
Captain: Kane Cornes
Emergencies: Terlich, Stevenson, O’Meara, Evans, Blicavs, Daw, Neade, Macaffer
Cap left: $208,900
Weekly Score: 2423 (would win weekly prize)
Total Score: 9607
Highest ‘real’ weekly score: 2355
Highest ‘real’ season score: 8552
Points in front: 1055

Round 5:

Trades: Gibbs, Westhoff out, Enright, Rockliff in
Captain: Nick Reiwoldt
Emergencies: B Goodes, Stevenson, Jones, Evans, Blicavs, Daw, Dwyer, Macaffer
Cap left: $327,400
Weekly Score: 2371 (would win weekly prize)
Total Score: 11978
Highest ‘real’ weekly score: 2349
Highest ‘real’ season score: 10694
Points in front: 1284

Round 6:

Trades B Goodes, Stanton out, Vlastuin, Ablett in
Captain: Steve Johnson
Emergencies: Terlich, Stevenson, Wines, Evans, Blicavs, Daw, Dwyer, Macaffer
Cap left: $447,900
Weekly Score: 2133
Total Score: 14111
Highest ‘real’ weekly score: 2204
Highest ‘real’ season score: 12686
Points in front: 1425

Round 7:

Trades: Stevenson, Wines out, Laird, Watson in
Captain: Gary Ablett (who else!)
Emergencies: Terlich, Laird, Jones, Evans, Blicavs, Daw, Neade, Macaffer
Cap left: $444,400
Weekly Score: 2325
Total Score: 16436
Highest ‘real’ weekly score: 2381
Highest ‘real’ season score: 14833
Points in front: 1603

Round 8:

Trades: Rockliff, Neade out, Bartel, J Lewis in
Captain: Gary Ablett
Emergencies: Birchall, Laird, Jones, Evans, Blicavs, Daw, S Johnson,Macaffer
Cap left: $304,800
Weekly Score: 2382
Total Score: 18818
Highest ‘real’ weekly score: 2441
Highest ‘real’ season score: 16943
Points in front: 1875

Round 9:

Trades: Birchall, Cornes out, Houli, Stanton in
Captain: Michael Barlow
Emergencies: Terlich, Laird, Jones, Evans, Blicavs, Daw, Dwyer, Macaffer
Cap left: $322,700
Weekly Score: 2530 (would win weekly prize)
Total Score: 21348
Highest ‘real’ weekly score: 2451
Highest ‘real’ season score: 19176
Points in front: 2172

Round 10:

Trades: Boak, Leuenberger out, Griffen, Kruezer in
Captain: Ryan Griffen
Emergencies: Terlich, Burgoyne, Jones, Evans, Blicavs, Daw, Dwyer, JJ Kennedy
Cap left: $350,900
Weekly Score: 2506 (would win weekly prize)
Total Score: 23,854
Highest ‘real’ weekly score: 2357
Highest ‘real’ season score: 21275
Points in front: 2579

 

CURRENT TEAM:

DEFENDERS           

B Goddard      $513,400
B Houli           $445,900
M Hibberd      $451,300
S Burgoyne     $400,000
C Enright        $457,900
N Vlastuin       $370,700
D Terlich         $346,200
R Laird            $266,100

MIDFIELDERS        

G Ablett          $612,300
B Stanton        $512,900
M Barlow        $535,300
A Swallow      $461,500
R Griffen        $488,100
R Douglas       $495,900
J Watson         $502,600
J O’Meara        $403,900
M Jones           $344,100
M Evans          $293,000

RUCKS         

M Kruezer       $353,500
T Goldstein     $425,300
M Blicavs        $272,300
M Daw            $239,700

FORWARDS

N Reiwoldt     $496,500
J Lewis            $466,200
J Bartel            $499,000
M Stokes         $456,600
J Kennedy       $401,500
S Johnson        $562,600
S Dwyer          $318,400
B Macaffer      $323,400

Total Worth     $12,716,100
Cap Left          $350,900

 

So there you go – the team you wanted from the start!!! This team would have the number 1 season ranking from round 1 so far and would have won the weekly prize 7 out of the 10 weeks so far – that’s a lot of footy tickets and sherrins!

The team still has 10 rookies in it which goes to show that a ‘sideways trading’ strategy might be more beneficial than a lot of coaches (myself included) think!

Not sure how this team will go for the rest of the season but with a 2,579 head start with 13 rounds to go they would be very difficult to chase down!

Now if we could all just come up with a great starting team like this in 2014!!!

Thanks again to the ‘Nix Dream Trader’ and ‘Footywire.com’ for the resources to help with this article.

For discussion on this article give me a follow on twitter  – @Pearcey47

DOWNLOAD: DT best team.xlsx

44 Comments

  • Absolutely awesome. I understand your pain mate, I currently have a ranking of about 40K after a disappointing start. I narrowed it down to some poor initial selections such as Armstrong, Maric, Zorko, Lycett, Zmith,JPK, Toumpas and Karnezis. I have a plan to bounce back and avoid a recrrence of this next year, very demoralizing, but it’s interesting that neither Swan, Ablett or Pendlebury featured in the team. Great work, must have taken you a while to hunt down all those stats.

    • first of all, great write up mate. But Ablett was brought into the team in round 6 and featured as Captain the following 2 weeks. It was Buddy, Cox and Swan who didn’t feature:) That would still be one very awesome team to be owning at this point in the season still and especially with the luxury of 2 trades a week and 350,000 in the kitty!

      • Sorry, I meant to say that they didn’t feature initially, left out a word.

  • I can see it now, some time traveller will appear next year solely for the purpose of winning DT

  • great stuff mate, you’ve obviously put a lot of work into that. i don’t suppose your hindsight works in the other direction as well? i’d settle for a good captain this week…..

  • This is without doubt the stupidest article I have ever seen on this site. This is like saying in hindsight I could have won the lottery 20 times if I selected these numbers before the draw was made. Or I would be the richest person in the world if I purchased stocks at their lowest point and sold them at their highest for no reason at all. Look at some of the trades…..swapping premiums that are in good form to other premiums underperforming just before they have a massive game. Or having S Johnson on the bench when he was a late withdrawal that week. How much time did you waste on this? Surely you could have spent your time writing an article that would actually help the people that use this site.

    • Haha. Wow! Take it for what it is. I for one, found it an interesting read.

    • You are a dribble dick. Get off the site

    • You should have used the time typing this comment to help old ladies cross the street instead of being a giant assclown

      • cant stand blokes that bring peoples mothers into arguments to try and get one up on another person.

        #weakaspiss #cocksucker

        • Well Jacob if you had any idea, you would have realised I was making reference to the fact he used the term dribble dick. Something a 5 year old would use. It was not an attempt ‘to try and get one up on another person’. More that fact I was having an argument with a five year old and that’s the type of insults they understand. You incoherent fool.

          #noidea #youareatool #expandyourvocabulary

          • Perhaps Daniel realised that five-year olds could potentially be on this site, and so he cleaned up his language a bit instead of calling you a $#%%^^& #^&#% with a **#(#* No use picking fights with people on the internet, no good ever comes from it. Sometimes it’s good to have a look at what could have been, if your decision-making process had been different, and how you may be able to use that process to influence your selections for next year.

        • True that. This is guy is definitely a DRIBBLE DICK. Ah shit i said it again.

    • Hahaha you sound like the sort of tool that watches movies about superheros and spends the whole time highlighting how in real life that wouldnt have worked!!

      Whilst you sit there constantly analysing to the last degree and attempting to portray yourself as smarter than the producer, everyone else is just sitting back enjoying the movie for what it is……..a bit of fun and entertainment.

      For the purpose of everyone who knows you and everyone who may be in the same cinema as you i suggest you:

      1 – Lighten up (you only live once)
      2 – Get rid of your insecurities (No one cares if you are smart or not)
      3 – Pull your head in and enjoy life for what it is

      If you choose to do none of these things i would greatly appreciate if you stayed of the site, as no one wants to spend their time dealing with a negative nelly

      Kindest Regards Daniel

  • Rendo – give Calvin’s Captains a read, he will be able to help you with your problem!

    Warnie – Sorry for my lack of knowledge but what is ‘Biffs Allstars’???

    • Back to the Future reference… remember ‘Biff’ took the almanac back and used it for financial gain? Classic movie moment!

      • Biff Tannen’s pleasure paradise

      • Warnie, you are talking to a generation that look at the Back to the Future series like we like look at the original Great Gatsby.

        Sure, it’s a classic, but you could never really bother watching something that old!

        • Sparlo, my friend, you haven’t lived until you have seen the trilogy.

          It’s simply the greatest trilogy ever.

    • yeah, did that last week and got burned by StevieJ over GAJ. I was (jestingly) hoping for some of old mates magical hindsight working in reverse to give me the “right answers” for this week.

      #LockinGAJ

  • Haha I’m glad you liked it Anthony! Thanks for the feedback!

  • An interesting article but all the trades in reality would be trying to predict when premiums are all of a sudden going to start playing terribly which unless your a psychic would never work :(

  • Thanks Warnie – haven’t seem that movie in years!

  • Great article Josh, fantastic stuff. Really interesting read…

  • Interesting! I’m pretty sure that if you eliminated prescient trades (i.e. trades that predict injuries, shockers, or one off great captain choices) then this team would still be streaks ahead of the competition.

  • Trading is such an essential (and fun) part of Dream Team, who would only want to make 2 trades out of 44 by week 10?

  • Tim – if you didn’t make any trades at all with that starting team, had emergencies play when the injured players didn’t and had Stanton as captain (and Swallow as VC) the team would be 197 points behind the leader. Goes to show how important the starting team is to get right!!!

    • Absolutely, I screwed mine up this year and I’m paying the price. I think the trick to it is to pick the guys that don’t have a huge amount of risk to them. ie. Brent Stanton, the worst he was going to pull out was a 100 odd average, same with Swallow, and Barlow, I think quite often we get too caught up looking at our teams and seeing the breakout boys, the ‘Guns’ and the good rookies that we never stop to think about the worst case scenario. It’s a cracking article Pearcy, but I think every now and then it’s good to look at what could have been if the Premiums had failed as well. Hope for more though.

    • Sure its important but not necessarily crucial, trading well is more important. I had a crap first week, 1800 odd (ranked in the mid 30k). Didn’t get all my starting picks right but by trading in the right players at the right time got to number one.

    • Holy sh*t! I wouldn’t be surprised to hear that the best possible starting team would be well ahead of me with no trades/captain changes, but to be just 197 points off the lead. Incredible. It goes to show how much you can get wrong and still be in the hunt.

  • Good to see the number 1 ranked player in the country having a read! Top work mate!

  • I can only imagine the amount of flak someone would have copped if he put that team up in one of the early pre-season “My Teams”. Just goes to show nobody really knows who is going to play well. This will help me choose my team next year and an important lesson is learnt, choose who you want to choose….don’t listen to other opinions…

  • Looks to be pretty well set up for the byes too. Maybe a JJK -> Rockliff/Martin/Westhoff(!) or whoever does best over Rds 12-13 from the Rd 11 bye fwds and Daw -> Nicholls and would have a 7-12-12 structure. Although MBRs would be a little less hazardous with the advantage of hindsight!