Dream Team Finals – Defender Rankings

With the MBR’s approaching we are all trying to settle our teams for finals, but who should we be looking for? The player with the best finals’ draw? Or the player that’s the most consistent? Or the player averaging the most? I thought why not compile these in to one ranking system. I have started with defenders this week and hope to continue with midfielders, rucks and forwards. The players I have ranked are the top nine averaging defenders after round nine (excluding Ibbotson).

The basics of the ranking system:

Average 2013: This is the player’s current average as of round nine.

100+ scores given up by opponents: This is the combined average of 100+ scores given up by the four teams that player plays during rounds 20 through to 23. (E.g. Essendon plays West Coast, North Melbourne, Carlton and Richmond which would give the score of 1.88+2.77+2.44+3.11=10.2)

Average @ Ground: This is the player average across all the ground they will play during rounds 20 through to 23. (The average is the player last three scores at each ground averaged out.)

Standard Deviation: This is a measure of how consistent the player has been this year, because we definitely don’t want someone like Hartless in finals because you’re bound to get a 30 with every ton.

Ranking score: This is the complete ranking score accounting for all the above criteria it is calculated as follows: ((Average)+(100+ scores)+ (average @ ground))– (standard deviation).

defenderfinals

 

One thing I found the most interesting was that was how high Bryce Gibbs came in my rankings seeing as he ranked 8th on Average points but was 3rd overall in my rankings. Another thing to note was that we probably shouldn’t put any one particular preference when selecting our upgrade targets but look across the board so we have covered all bases come finals.

Thanks for reading hopefully you find it helpful and feel free to ask any questions via twitter @Joseph_Swan.

38 Comments

  • Thanks Warnie,

    Feel free to ask any questions, hope it helps some people out.

    Cheers, Swanny

  • Interesting read, thanks Shane.

    The other way you can account for volatility is to your “raw” score by the standard deviation.

    What might be useful is % games missed or the standard deviation of games played per season.

    TBH this is less crucial this year due to unlimited trades.

    • The other way you can account for volatility is to DIVIDE your “raw” score by the standard deviation.

    • Yeah good idea will definitely have to look at % of games played in the last few years.
      Thanks

  • Yeah good article, some good stats there!

  • Only problem with Duffield and Hibberd I have is I don’t think they can go BOOM like Hanley, Goddard, HeppD and Gibbs can and score 110+. Although credit to them for being consistent

    • Yeah that’s true if I analyse the midfielders next week I might be able to add in a ceiling category. But I do feel duffields favourable draw and Fremantle pressing for top 4 will hold him in good stead come finals

    • Duffield did recently score 119 not trying to be a twat though.

  • the problem with some of these defeners is now teams are aware of them and are getting tagged. hartlett, then birchall and now hanley.those 3 are particularly damaging players when left to roam so i expect them all to be tagged every week.

  • Is Hanley a must have defender? He had a bad score, because he had all the attention with so many brissie mids out. He will have a nice price in a couple of Weeks. I might look to go Scotland > Hanley before round 13. good plan?

    • I wouldn’t say must have, but he is definitely one I’m getting in after his round 11 bye. Good fixture in finals, great ceiling and shouldn’t be tagged every week plus macaffer is proving to be quite the tagger.

      • If Moloney is out for a few, and with rich still a fortnight or so from returning, I would say Hanley is Brisbane’s most damaging player, so will receive a bit more attention IMO.

        • I think redden and black should help take a bit of the heat off him, but yes he definitely could be tagged a fair bit more than we have seen

          • Redden is not an elite kick and Black is almost untaggable due to the amount of inside ball he gets (ala Priddis). Hanley always seems to have acres of space to himself, so even a light tag could really restrict his influence. Brisbane really struggled on Friday night, with no run from half-back, so I think other teams might look to target Hanley.

  • Love a few Numbers! Personally, I will be looking to grab Hibberd this week for Moloney (subbing Vlas into the mids), giving me a 9/10/11 bye structure and a DPP link to the backs and forwards. Then, pending carnage will look to offload Jones, Blic, JOM and Dwyer throughout the byes and pick up KMart, TMitch, Boyd and Barlow.

    • As an essendon supporter I love the Hibberd pick, doesn’t play loose/always doing a job so his scoring should stay consistent, won’t get tagged and loves a +6

  • HepD and Swanny in for scans?!?!?!?!?!?!!?

    Let’s throw in the towel now!

    • Hep says that scans were just precautionary and should line up on Friday night. Heard that one before.

      • against carlton? you’d best belive they’ll play even not 100% fit

  • Throughout most of the season my premos in defence have been the top 4: Goddard, Gibbs, Hanley and Hepp. Looking to bring in Duffield/Hibberd/Birchall soonish. But last week, the top 4 had two scores below 85. This week the top 4 averaged 80.5 It’s made me realise that Defenders are way too volatile, and that I may leave my defensive upgrades until the later end of the season.

  • I was looking to get a Round 12 Defender next week but Geelong’s potential to rest scares me off Enright and co. So the only other option I see is Malceski but despite his solid run lately he is unlucky with injury and sometimes has a 40-60 point game.

    Might have to use DPP and get a Rd 12 mid and load up on the 11s after their bye, much more appealing.

  • Thanks good read, ATM I have Duffy, Goddard and HepD Hibberd is my main target now because he is looking consistent and the list for a tag at Essendon is probably like this.

    Watson
    Stanton
    Goddard
    Zaharakis
    HepD
    Then maybe they can worry about someone like Hibberd.

    • BTW I am not saying Hibberd is not a good player but he hasn’t been as proven as the other guys on that list.

      • Yeah I definitely agree pretty much won’t get tagged and this year has played as a defender not really loose and his scores are still great so I can’t really see him losing points when given a defensive role ala Ibbotson on the weekend.

  • I have Hibberd,Goddard,Heppell and trading in another premium back next week what players should i get that have a round 12 or 13 bye? or wait til after bye rounds and trade frost this week?

  • Great article. Always good to get some stats to assist with separating upgrade options. I went Hibberd this week based on the reliability. You can always use the MBR weeks to juggle premiums by ditching high BE (Hanley) to being back later

  • when does the tigers and eagles game start ??

  • Great stats mate!! Made me realise my targets down back are now: Duffield & Hibberd. I now know that one of my R12 trades will be Terlich > Duffield thanks to this article. Looking forward to the next few:) and Hibberd will be coming in after his bye.

  • Currently have 1, 2, 4, 5 & Hartlett + Rook. Looking to get Gibbs in when he bottoms out (barring disasters). Hopefully each player’s form remains consistent (and Harlett picks it up a bit, though the last two weeks have been acceptable I guess).

    • Oh, and thank you for compiling these stats! Good food for thought.

      • Thanks for the feedback :) I’m hoping Hartlett improves to about 75-80 average :)