Trent’s Take: Trade Targets

Over the last few weeks, we’ve thrown the speculative net over mid pricers who we hope might spike their scoring at just the moment we trade them in. This week we’re focusing on trade targets who are under-priced premiums or who have role changes in the back half of the season.

Taylor Adams

$757k
R17 131
AVG 99.8
BE 79
3.56 % Ownership

Adams is Collingwood’s best midfielder. The reason he’s lost 116K over the season is mainly injury (although he did throw in a 68 and 85 early). But since his return he’s banged out 116, 109, 131.  Adams is a legitimate 110 average player who is currently averaging 99.8.  Upcoming fixtures are easy with exception of Port in R19, but Adams is a contested ball animal and unless he gets injured again, he is my number one trade target for the hamstrung Langford (or Whitfield).

Caleb Serong

$526k
R17 100
AVG 76.5
BE 67
3.54% Ownership

All the fans of Serong have been waiting for one move: stop using him as a tagger. And if you can trust Longmuir on the evidence of one week than Serong is your mid pricer for this week.  Fremantle have a hard tun, but with O’Connor probably tagging Brayshaw. Let’s hope Serong is saved from tagging Danger. He’s lost 110K and is probably a 90 average for the run home if he stops tagging. Just a small note, he is averaging around 75 minutes a game over the last 8 weeks, but never more than 80 which he had against Hawthorn. So, be prepared for his scoring still not to spike by as much as hoped because he could be back at 70-75 minutes a game.

Rowan Marshall

$562k
R17 79
AVG 77
BE 90
2.98% Ownership

Nothing in Marshall’s stats say buy me, but he is 3 games back after injury and he scored 43 that first game and has returned 91 and 79. He has dropped 176K on the back of injury and whilst I wouldn’t recommend him in the Ruck, he is a solid F6 for the run home.  St Kilda do have a difficult run home for rucks, but his scoring is not as affected as he plays almost half the game in the forward half. He is a watch this week with so much value around, but a potential buy for R19.

Clayton Oliver

$743k
R17 98
AVG 107.9
BE 117
13.45% Ownership

For weeks I have looked at Oliver as a trade in, just waiting for his form to look better, but he just looks to be ticking over and handball happy Clarry has returned.  Oliver seems to cop most of the attention of the defensive midfielders, but just to speculate, Petracca’s form is so exceptional, surely teams start to look at putting some defensive work into him. I think, Adams is better value this week, however Melbourne’s run home sees them play Hawthorn and the Suns. If Liam Shiel’s goes to Oliver, you know you made the wrong call. But, for those looking for an under-priced premium who is just on an average run (he’s lost 132K), and hoping for a spike than Oliver is your man.

Cameron Guthrie

$756k
R17 101
AVG 107.2
BE 138
3.56% Ownership

I wanted to throw in a higher BE player who is value for scoring but not necessarily for pricing. Apart from his poor game (scoring wise of 58) against Essendon, Guthrie is consistent.  Previously prone to be thrown a tagging role, but that is now off the cards with O’Connor the designated tagger.  If you want to go against the norm (292 sells so far this week to 45 buys) than Guthrie against Fremantle, Richmond and North is a viable buy either this week or next.

Christian Salem

$698k
R17 108
AVG 96.3
BE 68
2.41% Ownership

Salem’s last three scores are 108, 126 and 104. The only problem has been his susceptibility to the tag, like when he was sat on by the Bulldogs and Brisbane for scores of 59 and 64. But apart from those two scores, he has not scored below 91 since R4. And he plays the Hawks and Suns over the next two weeks. He is a legitimate upgrade from Houston and Haynes or cash up from Bianco.

Upshot: Average week with 2126 and ranked 1984. This week I need to get rid of Langford and I have had enough of Sidebottom (and Houston, but you can’t get rid of them all). Looking to sideways to Adams and Serong. Just to stick my toe in the selection policy of Ken Hinkley from a biased fantasy hat- stop playing Houston as the defensive winger where he almost caught pneumonia. Watch team news for the inclusion of Bonner, which will allow Houston back in his previous more fantasy friendly defensive quarter back role, otherwise he is a trade.