BitinThat: AFL Fantasy Historical Statistical Trends

This article exhibits some tables and graphs that are referenced on a podcast I recently was lucky enough to jump on with Warnie and talk about the historical trends of AFL Fantasy. Absolutely loved the chat with him and keen to see what the future holds.

If you have any questions please DM us on X @Bitinthat

TLDR

AFL Fantasy prices are easier to understand in Fantasy points rather than dollars. The magic number converts a player’s price to a “priced at” value. The magic number then moves after each round based on how the competition scores in aggregate. Historically the magic number decays as the ‘market’ is undervalued as discounted and rookie priced players replace retirees and delisted players. Hence decreased the average “priced at” at the start of the season. However the total points doesn’t materially change from season to season and hence to keep the price changes for each round summing to 0. The magic number falls. This means that the dollars are worth less points as the season goes on. As there are more points in the market then previously priced. This article aims to highlight how picking players of value has been the blueprint of the successful fantasy coaches.

To see the full 18-page article, charts and team reveal, head to our Patreon.

Warnie

Co-captain of DT Talk since we started this thing in 2007. Best finish was 13th in 2009... that was a long time ago. Follow on Twitter: @WarnieDT and follow on Instagram: @warnedawgs.