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21 down, three to go!
I ussually hate this time of the fantasy. With everyone rocking completed teams, luxury trades are dominating our weekly moves – not making much room for rookies anymore, but they’ve had their fair share of attention. I find that particularly at the pointy end of the campaign, we are always burnt by one trade or another when you swap premium for premium and lose 30-50 points. For me, it was Zak Butters to Errol Gulden and I know most coaches have a similar story of hardship or a big letdown during the year. Soldier on though, the finish line is close and there are only six more trades to navigate!
Rookie/cash cows are typically defined as players who started the season priced at $300,000 or lower
Mooooving On
Part of our weekly trade focus is to remove the rookie-priced players who are no longer making money. When a cash cow sees their average fall in line with their breakeven or they find themselves on the outside looking in for multiple weeks at a time, that’s a good time to give them the axe.
Fattened cash cows
- Oliver Dempsey, Cats ($636K, 72 AVG, 98 BE)
- Billy Dowling, Crows ($517K, 66 AVG, 57 BE)
- Logan Evans, Power ($555K, 73 AVG, 65 BE)
- Bruce Reville, Lions ($344K, 48 AVG, 84 BE)
- Andy Moniz-Wakefield, Demons ($380K, 52 AVG, 42 BE)
Injured/non-playing rookies
- Arie Schoenmaker, Saints ($362K, 59 AVG, 15 BE)
- Joel Freijah, Bulldogs ($446K, 56 AVG, 46 BE)
- Nathan Kreuger, Magpies ($414K, 53 AVG, 61 BE)
- Joe Richards, Magpies ($412K, 56 AVG, 61 BE)
- Charlie Dean, Magpies ($387K, 48 AVG, 43 BE)
Cash Cow King – Round 21
With three rounds of votes still to be counted, there is just ONE vote separating the top three for Cash Cow King honours! Matt Roberts (93) and Colby McKercher (97) could vault to the top of the leaderboard if they poll maximum votes this weekend, with the pair both nearly cracking the triple-figure threshold. Darcy Jones (98) bested both of them for the highest rookie score of the weekend while ascending Lions forward Kai Lohman (89) and Essendon debutant Archie Roberts (80) earned a nomination for their Round 21 scores.
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Making Moves
No one is chasing a rookie as a trade priority this late in the season, so as a result, I’ve streamlined the article before I get stuck into the awards next week. If there’s a cash cow I don’t cover that you’ve got questions about, feel free to drop them below or hit me up on my socials.
DEFENCE
Colby McKercher ($761K, 97, BE 79) – If you’re left fielding any rookie in the backline, you want it to be Colby McKercher. He has only played four of the nine possible games since North Melbourne’s bye and yet, the Rising Star hopeful has averaged 98.7 points when he’s been in the lineup. Despite the offer on value, I wouldn’t go chasing McKercher though with the ascending Roo a likely chance to miss another match before the season is out.
Matt Roberts ($633K, 93, BE 9) – The last month has been huge for Matt Roberts, vaulting the Swans cash cow back into fantasy relevance on the back of some stellar scores. 93 on the weekend despite Sydney getting SMASHED by the Power was a great return – taking his average to 105.5 in the last month. Genuine target for mine and the perfect D7 loop option if you’re flush with cash.
Logan Evans ($555K, 54, BE 65) – On the back of two straight 50-point efforts, it’s time to axe Logan Evans. Port Adelaide’s mid-season recruit is sitting on the bench for half of the coaches that own him and by flicking Evans to a basement-priced defender, it’s possible you won’t need to do another downgrade for the entire season! He’s been great, but a dip in price is coming so get ahead of the curve.
Lawson Humphries ($521K, 71, BE 43) – Make no mistake, if you need the cash for an upgrade and Lawson Humphries is the only inflated rookie you can trade – do it. However, I still think holding on to the Geelong cash cows is a wise move over the final three rounds, with Humphries still scoring in great bunches. He should reach his breakeven of 43 in front of a WA home crowd as the Cats clash with Fremantle and juicy fixtures against St Kilda and West Coast to close the fantasy season could lead to more fieldable scores from Humphries.
Joe Fonti ($284K, 9, BE 38) subbed on – Joe Fontempelli tried his best to rack up during his limited game time and the GWS youngster still managed to increase his price last round. I can’t see him breaking into the Giants’ 22, making Fonti somewhat irrelevant over the final three weeks.
Hugh Bond ($251K, 22, BE 21) – Crappy, irrelevant score from the guy who may be sitting at D7 or D8.
Archie Roberts ($240K, 80, BE -1) – We saw one helluva debut from Archie Roberts at the MCG, only further frustrating fantasy coaches that we won’t be nice and cheap next season. It didn’t take long for the Dons defender to hit the ground running with 32 of his points coming in the first quarter alone! Ripper downgrade option for those who need a cheap DEF.
Angus McLennan ($227K, 62, BE -1) – I’ll be straight with you, I barely knew a thing about Angus McLennan before his debut on Sunday. What I do know is that the 2022 rookie selection has averaged 61 in his 15 VFL games this year and could be worth a dice roll to close the year. I’d rather Roberts if you’re in the market for a defensive downgrade though.
Dan Curtin ($215K, 2, BE 52) subbed on – It’s fair to declare that things haven’t gone to plan for Daniel Curtin in his first AFL season. He’s the only top-10 draftee from last year yet to play a full game, with four appearances as Adelaide’s sub ruining his chances of becoming a relevant rook. There’s still optimism for Curtin and I know I’m not the only one watching him closely with the hope he enters 2025 priced at $200K.
MIDFIELD
Harley Reid ($574K, 43, BE 80) – There are over 500 coaches still trading Harley Reid out of their team this week, with the West Coast phenom still clearly hanging around for a few of the less fortunate coaches. His recent form has been fine, but as the Eagles’ season winds down I have a hunch a few more dud scores are on the way from the future superstar.
Zac Taylor ($373K, 64, BE 8) – Those who invested in the Adelaide rookie a few rounds ago will be happy to see him continuing a price rise – slowly but surely. Some coaches are opting to trade Taylor out ahead of Round 22 and if you need the cash there’s no point holding onto him. Although, he’s only a decent game away from cracking the $400K threshold with the Crows MID shaping up as a perfect final downgrade choice.
Bruce Reville ($344K, 27, BE 84) subbed on – We’ve seen a dramatic fall from grace by Bruce Reville, with the sub vest the main reason for his dramatic price slide. Entering Round 16, Reville was playing a crucial role as a money-making MID/FWD for the bulk of the fantasy community, producing an average of 62.1 points from his eight games. Since then, Brisbane’s cult hero has scored just 77 in five weeks – including a DNP last week and three straight games starting as the sub. If you haven’t already, cut your losses.
Harvey Johnston ($200K, 42, BE 11) – In his third AFL game, it’s fair to say that Harvey Johnston didn’t light the world on fire. Still, a few early appearances as the sub didn’t allow the Eagles teenager to get a decent run and he showed flashes of promise last Friday against Gold Coast. I’m hoping Johnston avoids the vest in the final three weeks and lays the foundation for a successful fantasy tenure.
Clay Hall ($200K, 17, BE 35) subbed on – There were moments when Clay Hall looked clean around stoppage and was able to help West Coast gain first use of the footy. There were also plenty of moments where Hall was a bit all at sea and went long patches of the game without making his presence felt. For selfish reasons, let’s hope he continues to have ‘moments’ while starting in the vest to ensure he’s nice and cheap for season 2025.
RUCK
Henry Smith ($238K, 51, BE 6) – Doing his bit to keep the rookie rucks relevant at the pointy end of the season. I salute you, Henry Smith!
FORWARD
Oliver Dempsey ($636K, 55, BE 98) – It might be time to move Ollie Dempsey on, but to be fair there aren’t a lot of candidates sticking their hand up as potential replacements. The likes of Dylan Moore, Izak Rankine and Brent Daniels are being sought after by the fantasy community and on paper, they are better players to own for the last three rounds. Dempsey could outscore all three of them during the run home thanks to his friendly fixture – however, I’d still prefer to chase a bigger name and cut the crafty Cat.
Shaun Mannagh ($530K, 72, BE 45) – As I mentioned when discussing Lawson Humphries, there are reasons to hold Shaun Mannagh with the hopes he can pop off in one or two of his final games this fantasy season. Averaging 80+ since he re-entered the team in Round 17, Mannagh has helped a portion of coaches each week with a potentially fieldable score and I’d want to hold him unless you deparaately need the cash.
Billy Dowling ($517K, 46, BE 57) – Failing to surpass 50 points last weekend has all but sealed Billy Dowling’s fate. The promising Crow has played a crucial role since the bye rounds for coaches and we thank him for his services – but, he’s about to decline in value and with just three rounds left he has to go. There’s a world where you can keep Dowling and try to loop his score on your field against the Bulldogs this week. Although, he’s the most traded out player this week for good reason.
Andy Moniz-Wakefield ($380K, 50, BE 42) – There are still some who are trusting AMW arnd trying to squeeze all the possible juice they can out of the orange. While Moniz-Wakefield has gained a ton of fans this season and has the makings to be a fantasy player of the future, his job is done for 2024 and trading Melbourne’s spark plug is still the right option.
Steely Green ($313K, 34, BE 29) subbed off – This was always the risk with investing in Steely Green with the Tigers’ small finding himself subbed out after playing less than 50% of the match against North. I can’t see that changing drastically either with Green now destined to reside as a brown dot for the rest of the year.
Corey Warner ($268K, 8, BE 31) subbed off – Throughout the season, I’ve liked what Corey Warner has shown in small doses. He has only played over 65% of game time in one of his five matches this season, so his fantasy shortcomings aren’t entirely his fault.
Tyrell Dewar ($209K, 52, BE 15) – Fine score from West Coast’s small forward, but he isn’t one to invest in.
State League Stats
Here are the noteworthy 💰🐮 AFL Fantasy numbers from Round 21 in the state leagues
Ryley Sanders, Bulldogs (134) – 39 disposals, 3 goals
Charlie Lazzaro, Kangaroos (123) – 24 disposals, 5 marks, 13 tackles, 1.1 in front of goal
James Leake, Giants (121) – 35 disposals, 5 marks, 6 tackles, 1 behind
Bailey Laurie, Demons (119) – 29 disposals, 10 tackles
Oskar Faulhead, Suns (116) – 28 disposals, 5 marks, 9 tackles
Luke Beeckan, Lions (107) – 24 disposals, 12 marks
Finbar Maley, Kangaroos (104) – 15 disposals, 13 hitouts, 7 marks, 5 tackles, 2 goals
Hugh Jackson, Power (101) – 20 disposals, 8 tackles, 1.1 in front of goal
Jai Serong, Hawks (101) – 101 points, 20 disposals, 9 marks
Kynan Brown, Demons (94) – 18 disposals, 8 tackles, 1 goal
James Tunstill, Lions (92) – 20 disposals, 7 marks, 2 goals
Harvey Gallagher, Bulldogs (91) – 925 disposals, 5 marks, 2 goals
Karl Worner, Dockers (90) – 27 disposals
Jack Carroll, Blues (84) – 24 disposals
Jedd Busslinger, Bulldogs (82) – 20 disposals, 8 marks
Jake Rogers, Suns (80) – 17 disposals, 9 tackles, 1 goal
Max Ramsden, Hawks (80) – 12 disposals, 24 hitouts, 2 behinds
Marty Hore, Demons (76) – 16 disposals (16 kicks!), 8 marks
Jaxon Binns, Blues (64) – 23 disposals
Joel Freijah, Bulldogs (58) – 14 disposals, 5 marks, 1.2 in front of goal
Remember the Name
In no particular order, here are some of the other rookie-priced players to consider throughout the season.
DEFENDERS
James Leake (Giants, $252K)
Jakob Ryan (Magpies, $200K)
Billy Wilson (Blues, $201K)
Archie Roberts (Bombers, $200K)
Jedd Busslinger (Bulldogs, $200K)
Charlie Edwards (Crows, $240K)
Saad El-Hawli (Bombers, $200K)
Jacob Blight (Tigers, $200K)
MIDFIELDERS
Clay Hall (Eagles, $200K)
Hugh Jackson (Power, $200K)
Harry Rowston (Giants, $241K)
Harry DeMattia (Magpies, $228K)
Mitch Hardie (Cats, $200K)
George Stevens (Cats, $200K)
RUCKMEN
Coen Livingstone (Eagles, $200K)
Max Heath (Saints, $200K)
Archer Reid (Eagles, $213K)
Will Verrall (Demons, $200K)
Taylor Goad (Kangaroos, $243K)
Mitch Edwards (Cats, $207K)
FORWARDS
James Tsitas (Suns, $200K)
Ashton Moir (Blues, $216K)
Tom Anastasopoulos (Power, $200K)
Brayden George (Kangaroos, $200K)
Max Hall (Saints, $200K)
Campbell Gray (Tigers, $200K)
Toby Murray (Crows, $200K)
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Hey Fry
Big fan of your work – very IMPRESSIVE throughout the year
Need some help with my team
Defenders
Whitfield Sheezel Stewart N.Martin Daicos Humphries (L.Evans M. Hore)
Midfield
Gulden, Bontempelli, Merrett Rozee Serong Walsh Dawson H.Young
(Clohesy H.Johnston Z.Duursma)
Rucks
Marshall Xerri (Livingstone)
Forwards
Zorko Flanders Caldwell Heeney H.Reid Dowling (Moniz-Wakefield Pink)
With 92k in the bank
Was thinking
1) Evans to Perkins & Dowling to Powell / Phillipou / someone else
2) Reid & Dowling to Powell / Phillipou
3) Something else……
Cheers
Cheers Adrian!
I thinkt he best move is to ditch Billy Dowling, so I’d look to trade him to Phillipou or perhaps Brent Daniels if you want to get real unique
Thanks for the article fry
I was wondering xerri and Marshall this week (I’ll get the other the week after)
And downgrade Evans on bench to grab cash? Or downgrade Kennedy to peatling/ phillipou to grab cash
I meant xerri or marshall
My pleasure mate
I’m in the same position this week and I’m giving Rowan Marshall the slightest edge. You’re right though we need both over the last few rounds if you missed out!
I think Evans goes first, hopefully Cerra’s injury means Kennedy can avoid the sub vest
Hi Fry, would you rather NWM or Newman as a unique for Martin?
Newman for me
What are your thoughts on:
Miers/Simpkin —> Poo
Day—> McCluggage
I’m doing the exact same thing with my trades – Miers out to Phillipou. Don’t hate the uniqueness of McCluggage, but I’d prefer Cripps at about the same price
I’m not so sure about Cripps. I’m predicting that Maginness will come in and possibly tag Cripps
Fair enough, as I said McCluggage is a great unique so nothing wrong with him either!
Love your work Fry!
Who would you rather out of Tom Powell or Poo?
Thinking Mannagh to either one, can afford both.
Cheers Jacko!
I think it’s Phillipou for me, two promising fixtures on the agenda, but maybe I’m favouring him a touch because Powell burnt us all haha
What’s thoughts on these trades mate?
1) Mannagh > Poo (play Poo, Simpkin & Pestling as F5 F6 & F7.
2) Mannagh > Powell (Play Peatling or Simpkin as F7)
3) Simpkin > Poo
Mannagh > Newman and play Daicos D7
I like the idea of the first trade mate, gives you the most flexibility toggling through F5 and F6 for the final few rounds
Is Phillipou a priority this week. If I’ve already got cash, should I be looking at him or someone like Powell?
Common question but I’m a Phillipou man over Powell
Love your work fry…need some serious help…my team is in shambles.
Bank: 101k
Defenders:
Whit, Sheez, Martin, Naicos, Stewart, Holmes
Midfielders:
Gulden, Treloar, Dunkley, Brayshaw, Bont, Rozee, Walsh, LDU
Ruck:
English, Grundy
Forward:
Zork, Flanders, Heeney, Caldwell, Dowling.
My original trades were
Holmes–> Mckercher
English –> Marshall
but im gonna have to change that now cos I just realised dowling’s out. My priority is getting the two rucks in…
What should I do?
Doing Dowling to Poo leaves me short of getting English to X or Roma:(
Thanks Dusty!
Tricky spot to be in – I’d want to chop Grundy and Holmes and you’re right the two rucks are ideal but you’ve got to address the Dowling issue – if you can do another downgrade upgrading him to Rankine would be ideal. He’s probably the best F6 option that a lot of coaches will miss out on this week.
Hope that helps mate!
What about Dowling to Poo and then Holmes to mckercher. Leavin me about 140k for next week in which I will try get both rucks?
Don’t hate it, both Phillipou and Colby should be good for 75-100
Hey great article.. Quick one for you I am finalizing my team and doing my last upgrade, I have my first elimination final this week so my question is do I move up to D.Moore who my opponent has or go a POD player and get a B.Daniels, J.Peatling or Phillipou or even Rayner who has had decent form…
Cheers Johnny, I think you go for another player over Moore – my thinking is Phillipou, but the unique Rayner is a great option that might be being neglected by the rest of the comp. Tough decision, but I’d feel the best grabbing Phillipou
Hey Fry, need your invaluable advice on these 3 trades I’m sweating on this week:
Which is the best option?
3rd option. Moore is still a hold. Simpkin is a risk week to week imo best to cash in the 170k with Pou
At first the first one sounds good and hopefully finding a handy loophole player for $200K (Campbell Gray from Richmond is my fav). Although, Simpkin doesn’t give me the same confidence as Phillipou, so I’d pull the trigger on the third option and grab the Saints gun with Xerri
Trade Dowling or Lobb to Phillipou?
Rory Lobb is yucky, but you have to prioritise getting rid of the red dot IMO
with Kelly back in, how are we feeling about Peatling at F6??
plan was for Xerri to come in for Grundy which that leaves my F7 as Tholstrup (pain), but i gawn bring in Gawn over X and get the Poo in at F7 as cover??
1. Grundy to Xerri & Evans to 200k (Otton for loophole cover)..
2. Grundy to Gawn & Evans to Phillipou as F7 cover (via DPP)..
or can run with 2. but add in Adams against his old side instead??
reason being that i can only loop Barnett who has the early saturday game, so wouldn’t be able to loop in the Poo at F7 anyway..
i mean, all swans & pies forwards look like trash (outside of Heeney) but this is the best shot i can see as an F7 loop to cover Peatling..
Kelly and Cogs returning should impact Peatling, but he still may battle his way to 70-80. I like the idea of grabbing Phillipou and Gawn so you can potentially play him over Petaling – not a fan of Adams either for what it’s worth
cheers Fry..
Gawn + Phillipou would be ideal, but realised i have no one to loop in the forwards really.. Pies & Eagles games means all of Krueger, Harrison & Barnett can’t be looped for that F7 in reality..
To be honest, I’d still just run the gauntlet and grab Gawn/Phillipou. That’s the combo I like the most out of the options you suggested anyway – good luck Doug!
Is Pou even playing I’m seeing pink emergency on his name noooooooo
Yep, I missed it after trading him in this week for Miers!
Have used my emergency on Mannagh now, which means I’ve got a red dot or can’t take Xerri’s VC. FMDT.
Gotta pick a captain between Treloar, Keays or Laird