|Draft range||Round 3|
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Why should I pick him?
History, consistency, price tag, uniqueness – All reasons Jake Lloyd should be heavily considered for your Fantasy teams this year. At one stage, Lloyd was a staple in every Fantasy defense as a D1 or D2 option, then last season Jake decided to throw a small spanner in the works for his coaches and averaged a good deal less than usual, giving us his lowest season average since 2016. But fear not, he was doing this just to give us Fantasy coaches a bit of value for the 2023 season! Let’s go through the positives one by one:
History. Lloyd has been a strong presence in the Fantasy game for years to the point where it was unusual to hear a preseason discussion about teams without including him as your first Defender. Jake has average over 100 twice and over 90 for six seasons running, a feat that not many current Defenders can match. With a reputation like that, it’s hard to ignore Lloyd irrespective of his price and his form, and you would assume that he won’t break that streak this season, so you’re locking in another 90+ Defender.
Consistency. Jake tends to be one of the more consistent defensive options, rarely giving his coaches a subpar score. In 2019, 2020, and 2021, Lloyd went under 80 just twice per year, that’s 90% of games that he would give his coaches an 80+ score. Last year, however, Lloyd struggled and went under 80 five times in a year. There were reasons for this that shall be explained later, and he offset these low scores with 7 x 100+ scores, including a 121 and a 140, really stretching his ceiling from previous years. If you’re looking for somebody who will stay on the field, you can also look no further than Lloyd. He has missed 3 home and away games since 2016, so you don’t have to worry about forced trades later in the year.
Price tag. For somebody who is capable of being a Top 3 Defender, Lloyd is priced a lot cheaper than many other options that are being considered. James Sicily is owned by a quarter of the competition currently and Gus Brayshaw is being given a chance by over 15% of Coaches, yet you can save at least $50k and get a guy who should average just as much, if not more than both of those players. To begin the season, every dollar counts, and $50k can be used extremely effectively to build up the rest of your team. Whilst Lloyd had a slightly down year last year, it’s hard to believe that such a Fantasy great is getting disrespected this much because of it.
Uniqueness. Building on from the last point, Lloyd has a mere 2.45% ownership as of writing this article. Starting the year with a guy this cheap and who can be so good can have massive early-season benefits for coaches. As I mentioned before, picking Lloyd over other Defenders gives you more cash to increase your team’s average elsewhere whilst not losing any average in your backline due to his scoring ability. This allows you to start the season with a points head start, a cash head start, and potentially a trade head start if Lloyd gets back to his very best and everybody has to bring him in because they didn’t start with him. Seems like a no brainer.
Why shouldn’t I pick him?
Whilst every rose has its thorn, this rose has two of those very tiny thorns that you know shouldn’t deter you from picking the rose but could make things very painful.
The first is also part of the positives, which is his price tag. Although you will be saving money on other premo options by bringing Lloyd in, there are cheaper (and slightly riskier options) that could provide higher returns. Players like Aaron Hall, Christian Salem, and even Elliot Yeo are all cheaper than Lloyd and have the potential to average the same or more than him. Lloyd is priced in that awkward bracket that you never really want to pick – Not quite premo prices, but also not quite cheap enough to save you lots of cash. However, I think this is a risk we can safely ignore as Lloyd is a genuine premium option that had a down year, rather than somebody you are actually taking a chance on. See this more as a Boxing Day sale purchase, rather than a Dollar Store hit or miss bargain.
The second reason not to pick Lloyd is a potential role issue. Whilst Lloyd played every game consistently and still performed well, his season and average was marred slightly by some of the younger kids at Sydney being tested out in his role. There were times where Lloyd was used as a lockdown defender, rather than the roamer that we all know and love. Just this threat alone is enough to send a shiver down any Fantasy Coaches spine, and it has clearly done more than that judging by his low ownership. I don’t personally believe we have anything to worry about. Lloyd finished the home and away season with six straight 80+ games and I feel like Sydney stabilised their experimentation during this time. Hopefully this role-shifting is over and, if not, you can still expect a strong Fantasy scorer, just throw out some of his consistency.
Deck of DT Rating.
I am genuinely struggling to think of a reason not to pick Lloyd. I would easily pick Docherty over him if you had the cash to spend, however I have him level with Sinclair and Dawson in terms of value and he feels less risky than both. I think, as long as you can spend the extra cash well, Lloyd is an absolute lock for this season, but I’m sitting here hoping that you don’t pick him so that I can start the year with a star at 2% ownership.
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February 5, 2023 at 9:23 am
What reason does he average 7 points more than last year tho?
February 5, 2023 at 1:47 pm
Read the article, Kjaks, not just the headline.
February 5, 2023 at 2:47 pm
I believe Kjaks is OK asking the question. and I don’t see the seven-point gain mentioned in the headline, so he at least read the table. There are better options than Lloyd, because the reasoning Lloyd will increase is that he will return to his previous ways, and a seven-point gain is not enough to cover the risk. Horse can be as unreadable as Bevo. but Sydney came third on the ladder and made a GF with the system they used last year. Is he going to change it much? I doubt it. So, even that minor seven-point predicted gain is at risk. There is a better chance of improvement in Doc (at least initially, while Carlton is without Walsh), Salem, Yeo and even Brayshaw. No way would I have all of them – I have Doc and Yeo – but with Melbourne trying to recapture their mojo, they are more likely to return to their premiership winning ways and WCE are a shambles who need Yoyo to step up, so they are better risks. With 2.45% ownership, Lloyd is a POD; maybe a successful one. Good luck to those who take the risk. I won’t be one of them.
February 6, 2023 at 7:59 am
fark, this is a killer response.. i agree with all of it, can’t see horse shuffling the magnets too much from last year and expect lloyd to be much the same.. he could go 7+ more per game for sure, that’s only 1 extra +6 after all, but i’ve got as much confidence that salem/yeo can go 15+ making their $pp value much more appealing..
February 5, 2023 at 2:29 pm
Predicting he will average 98 and then saying he should average the same as if not more than Gus is just plain strange haha
February 5, 2023 at 3:44 pm
For me he’s first emergency should Stewart or Daicos have any pre season hiccup, can definitely see The Seagull being a top 6 defender again, worth watching for sure.