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Deck of Dream Team

Dylan Moore – Deck of Dream Team 2023

DC from Hat Chat looks at the relatively unknown Dylan Moore.

Player Dylan Moore
Club Hawthorn
Position FWD
Price $826,000
Bye 14
2022 avg 93.3
2022 gms 22
Proj. avg 96
Draft range 4th-6th round

Click here for 2023 Fantasy Classic prices.

Why should I pick him?

Let’s start with a question:

Who predicted Dylan Moore to average 93.3 in 2022?

Anybody?

Nup, didn’t think so.

Second question: 

Did you know who Dylan Moore was before 2022?

If you’re not a Hawks supporter or playing in deep draft leagues, I reckon there’s a chance you would’ve had no idea who he was. 

Remarkably, the diminutive forward was a picture of consistency in the first part of the season, not dropping below 70 in the first 8 rounds, after averaging 70 in the whole of 2021. He subsequently earnt the nickname “No-Floor Dylan Moore” on our Hat Chat podcast. 

But I wouldn’t be spending my time writing about No-Floor if it wasn’t for two things happening in the 2nd half of last year.

The first was that Moore spent significantly more time in the midfield to end 2022.

He didn’t register a single centre bounce attendance (CBA) prior to the round 14 bye. Rounds 15 and 16 saw him get a taste, before his midfield minutes skyrocketed to end the year, averaging 49% CBAs in his last 7 matches. This coincided with a 103 point average across those 7 matches. His most pure midfield time came from rounds 17-21. He had between 40-80% CBAs in those games and has scoring was outstanding, dropping 129, 112, 104, 98 and 101 for a 109 average.

Anything over 100 is clearly a top 6 forward average and it’s 5-10 points above what he’s priced at. What gets me a little hot under the collar though, is how comfortable he looked in the midfield. He is a natural-ball winner who hits every stat line. In the last 7 rounds of 2022, No-Floor averaged 24.1 disposals, 6.3 marks, and 5.4 tackles, including zero in round 23. That’s about 40 points per game from marks and tackles alone. 

His style of play (and stature) reminds me more than a little of Rory Laird, who made a similar positional switch in 2020, albeit from defence into the midfield. 

Fine, I’ll say it. Dylan Moore will be the top averaging player in 2023!!

…Okay, maybe not.

But I am bullish on his prospects for this season. The second big reason why is that Hawthorn showed the door to anyone who proclaimed to be a midfielder and was over 25 years old.

Titch? Gone. O’Meara? Gone. Shiels? Gone. Wingard? Seemingly so anonymous in 2022 that Sam Mitchell didn’t even realise he was still at the club.

So what does Hawthorn’s midfield look like for ’23? 

Well, Mitchell’s boy, Jai Newcombe is a lock to be there. Sophomore mid Josh Ward looks likely to take more responsibility (fantasy upside there as well, just quietly). But then what? 

Does the artist formerly known as James Worpel recover some mojo? Or is he destined to just remain as an online word game pun? The jury is probably still out but 2022 was far from encouraging.

Does Wingard return to relevance? I personally doubt it. With Mitchell diving head-first into the rebuild, 29 year-old Wingard taking on a full-time midfield role makes about as much sense as carpet in a barbershop. 

Karl Amon and Cooper Stephens have come in, but Amon seems most likely to play on a wing and Stephens is far from the finished article. 

Role players such as Nash and Maginness will have defensive-mid roles from time-to-time, and youngsters Connor MacDonald and Cam Mackenzie will get a taste inside. However, it’s hard to see any of them becoming mainstays in the midfield.

Hopefully this illustrates the uncertainty in the Hawks midfield. Supporters might be glass half-full and say there’s a lot of new blood, but as far as I can see, there’s major question marks and a gaping hole which is crying out for a classy mid to fill it. 

My feeling is that Dylan Moore will be one of the Hawk’s top 3-4 CBA players in 2023. He has more talent than most of the mids they have and he’s nearing his prime, unlike their recent high draft picks. Couple that with the success he had in the role to end last year, and I think we’re looking at an under-priced top 6 forward who could average around 100.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

The Hawks struggled in 2022. They then showed the door to seemingly 90% of their experienced players. My out-on-a-limb prediction (which isn’t actually out-on-a-limb whatsoever…) is that the Hawks will take out the spoon in 2022. So, for a bit of perspective, let’s have a look at the fantasy fortunes of the bottom two sides for the previous two seasons.

Averages over 90 in bottom two sides

2022

North Melbourne – 3 (Simpkin 96, Davies-Uniake 93, Hall 90)

West Coast – 2 (Hurn 94, Redden 93)

2021

North Melbourne – 4 (Hall 109, Ziebell 100, Cunnington 99, Simpkin 95)

Collingwood – 4 (Grundy 106, Crisp 102, Adams 101, Mayne 93)

So what did we learn?

  1. North Melbourne are shit.
  2. Only 1 pure mid has averaged over 100 (Adams, barely)
  3. Of the 13 players, 6 played in defence (James Sicily in 2022 👀)
  4. No one on the list had forward status the following year. 

Yeahhhhh…

It’s not encouraging reading if we’re looking for Moore to play a blend of midfield and forward and to push a 100 point average. He would definitely be bucking the trend. However, Jordan De Goey did average 110 after the bye in 2021, on the back of 65% CBAs. His tendency to present for marks is also similar to Moore’s. Nonetheless, it is concerning that Moore will likely be playing in a struggling team in 2023 and will need to win a substantial amount of his own ball to supplement his high tackle numbers. If he’s played predominantly forward then a regression is not out of the question.

Hawthorn’s near-tanking aside, the major reason I can see Dylan Moore being unique to start 2023 is that there are so many other attractive forward premium options to pick from. Stephen Coniglio and Connor Rozee had massive 2nd halves of 2022 following substantial jumps in midfield time. Rozee is also 5 points cheaper than Moore, which becomes crucial when picking your starting side. The other two big boys are both at new clubs. Dunkley and Taranto will be incredibly popular as both have averaged over 110 before and they look likely to play as full-time mids at their new homes. 

So, the question becomes, are you willing to pick Dylan Moore over one or two of those other players? It seems that picking four of the five is probably the most you could get away with. Some people might even go with just two if they’re loading up in the midfield instead.

Deck of DT Rating.

QUEEN

As bullish as I am on No-Floor, I also like a lot of the other premium forward options and I see at least a few of them coming with substantially less risk. That said, Moore is a natural scorer who hits every statline and could be absolutely anything in the right role. If he looks like playing predominantly midfield in 2023, then lock him in. He’s the sort of pick that could land you in hat territory if it works out.

Catch more from DC and the Hat Chat lads via their Facebook, Instagram and Twitter.

DC is one-quarter of Hat Chat, a podcast that focuses on helping coaches get to the top of the AFL Fantasy rankings. He has four top-500 finishes since 2018, including a 71st overall finish in 2021. Twitter: @DCCaterpillars Hat Chat Twitter: @HatChatAFL




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