The 2022 AFL Fantasy season is over and while many of us, me included, have their feet up and taking a break, some dedicated coaches have turned their thoughts to making a list of potential picks for next year.
We currently don’t know the salary cap for 2023, which is needed to have the actual prices. You may have heard us over the 16 (!!) seasons we’ve been talking rubbish about fantasy footy referring to a ‘priced at‘ figure. This is a essentially the break even for a player at the start of the season, meaning, what score does a player need to hit in order to maintain their price.
This can be found by dividing the starting price by the magic number. The magic number is the multiplier used to create prices based on their average (and any discounts applied).
As we don’t have the official cap and therefore all the other intricacies to formualte prices, let’s base our thinking using the 2022 numbers.
2022 Salary Cap – $14,800,000
2022 Magic Number – approx. 8386
In most cases, players’ prices are calculated by multiplying the magic number by their average. These are rounded to the nearest $1,000. If we continue to use these numbers here are some of 2022’s top averaging players’ prices. Note, these guys will all be ‘fully priced’ (ie. don’t get a discount as they played 10 or more games).
Rory Laird: 120.4 x 8386 = $1,010,000
Sam Docherty: 110.3 x 8386 = $925,000
Josh Dunkley: 108.8 x 8386 = $912,000
Max Gawn: 103.2 x 8386 = $865,000
You can use these calculations with any player who played 10 or more games in 2022. For example, someone who averaged 75 would cost $629,000 while someone who averaged 50 would be worth $419,000. Those averages are also their priced at figure.
Discounts are applied to players who played fewer than 10 games. They receive a 3% discount on their price for every game under 10. Eg. play 5 games in 2022, they receive a 15% discount… play 1 game, 27% discount… play 9 games, 3% discount. If a player missed the whole season, they receive a 30% discount while two seasons out of the game, they will cop a 35%.
If a player qualifies for a discount, it will be applied to the highest average from the last two seasons. If a player has missed both seasons, the 35% is applied to the most recent average available.
Some discount examples for next season:
Brodie Grundy – 6 games (12% discount)
2022 avg: 93.3 | 2021 avg: 106.4
0.88 x 106.4 = priced at 93.6
93.6 x 8386 = $785,000
Mitch McGovern – 7 games (9% discount)
2022 avg: 69 | 2021 avg: 67
0.91 x 69 = priced at 62.8
62,8 x 8386 = 527,000
Josh Goater – 1 game (27% discount)
2022 avg: 83 | 2021 avg: DNP
0.73 x 83 = priced at 60.6
60.6 x 8386 = $508,000
Toby McLean – 0 games (30% discount)
2022 avg: DNP | 2021 avg: 64.6
0.7 x 64.6 = priced at 45.2
45.2 x 8386 = $379,000
The only other thing to note is that a player who is yet to debut, they will be basement priced. This was $190,000 this year based on the $14.8m salary cap. This figure equates to being priced at approx. 22.6. Therefore, any player whose discount would have their priced at figure go below that number, they would be basement priced. No player is ever priced below the basement.
So there you have it. That’s basically all you need to know about calculating prices for the upcoming season. That said, there is likely to be a salary cap increase to remain in line with the real one. With that, the magic number also increases which means that basement price could possibly increase and that number quoted for Laird, for example, might be low.
The thing to remember is that it is all relative.
Our priced at figure is the key to it all. Their price is based on this number which equates to their average. If you think that number is lower than what they’ll produce, generally speaking, they will be value… and that is the aim of the game! Finding players who present value.
Happy off-season bargain hunting!
- Dan on Friday Fantasy Fill Up – Rd. 13: “agreed Warnie , windhager every day over Warner” Jun 10, 01:14
- Warnie on Friday Fantasy Fill Up – Rd. 13: “Windhager is averaging 33 or so because he was sub in three of his first six games. He scored 120,…” Jun 9, 22:21
- Will on Calvin’s Captains – Rd. 13: “English was absolutely dominating Lycett all game, he wasn’t injured. They had to sub him off and double up on…” Jun 9, 19:17
- lizardofoz on Friday Fantasy Fill Up – Rd. 13: “known” Jun 9, 18:48
- lizardofoz on Friday Fantasy Fill Up – Rd. 13: “I’m happy with Warner but Windhager had to be a dodgy selection. 66 from a know tagger averaging 33 or…” Jun 9, 18:47
I’ve worked on $16m and magic number 9000 puts Laird at $1080k. Interesting that JGoater NTH and L Florence WCE both scored 83 on debut in Rd 23. Their season ending price was around $300k now $545k with discount under my pricing for 2023. Do you wait for preseason game to see how they go I’m presuming their BE will be low. If they play they could could increase their value early and be early larger upgrades around Rd 4 or 5.
Firstly, Florenca isn’t AFL listed, he was a top up player hence why he only played the one week when WCE were desperate.
Goater’s break even won’t be low to start the season it’ll be what he is priced at for round 1 and will change dependent on his scores round 1 onwards. Not the kinda guy you are going to be picking in your side
Who is L Florence from WCE?
Sorry it is Jake Florenca 25yr old WCE midfielder and he debued in R8 and it was the only game he played. Don’t know weather he was injured or not and why he didn’t play more games. He played 65% TOG and had 19 disposals, 3 marks and 7 tackles for 83 FPoints.
A League Dream Team starts soon. I have started a league if anyone wants to join. Go to sportsdeck.com. League Code is 244317
Thank you Warnie
I have knocked up a spreadsheet with your info and it has put a different complexion on thoughts for 2023
What is the formula for price increase/decrease from round to round? like with rookies
Your article helped me a lot, is there any more related content? Thanks!