Weekend Forecast – Round 11

***Live stream of the Weekend Forecast will be on my YouTube channel. Make sure to tune in as I will be answering your questions during the live stream. Also, feel free to subscribe to my YouTube channel and leave a like on the video. Would be very much appreciated.***

Carnage yet again for many coaches at team selection, but Round 11 is our final round before we enter the bye round section of the season, with rounds 12 through to 14 having 6 teams on bye each week, thus meaning our best 18 scorers each week will contribute to our score. We have 5 trades before the start of these bye rounds so trading is of the utmost importance, and you can’t waste a trade through this period. However, Bailey Smith was named out with illness, Braydon Preuss was not named, and coaches who held on to Whitfield and Taranto will have much more to think about this week, with the Giants duo both missing again through their respective injuries.

Now, lets get into the Weekend Forecast.

 

Sydney vs Richmond @ SCG

Weather Forecast

Around 18°C, clear

Team Lineups

Sydney

IN

James Rowbottom, Matt Roberts, Sam Reid

OUT

James Bell (Omitted), Tom Hickey (Injured), Josh Kennedy (Injured), Colin O’Riordan (Omitted)

Richmond

IN

Jack Graham, Marlion Pickett

OUT

Tom Lynch (Injured), Jake Aarts (Omitted), Kane Lambert (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Jayden Short

Still continuing to play his role split between defence and midfield. 113 last week was a good score, a little bit tougher this week against Sydney at the SCG, but he should be good once again.

Callum Mills

Great captain this week, but the beauty of it is he is an amazing VC option if you have the luxury of VC loopholing him. Richmond do give up points, as shown by Parish (146) last week. Could be massive this week.

Isaac Heeney

Played a decent amount of midfield last week, attending 15 CBA’s (48.4%). That could have been due to Rowbottom being out, but as an owner myself, I hope this is not the case and he does infact, from here on in, get that midfield time that was talked about in the preseason.

Other players to watch: Paddy McCartin, Dustin Martin, Jake Lloyd, Luke Parker, Matt Roberts, Nick Vlastuin, Peter Ladhams

Brisbane vs GWS @ The Gabba

Weather Forecast

Around 24°C, sunny

Team Lineups

Brisbane

IN

Daniel McStay, Deven Robertson, Marcus Adams

OUT

Jack Payne (Omitted), Tom Fullarton (Omitted), Hugh McCluggage (Injured), Mitch Robinson (Medi-Sub)

GWS

IN

Lachlan Keefe, Lachie Ash

OUT

Jake Stein (Medi-Sub), Adam Kennedy (Illness), Xavier O’Halloran (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Jacob Wehr

We have a couple of good rookie options this week, with one of them being Jacob Wehr. If you don’t need to get a defender rookie, I would grab Jake Soligo and Cooper Stephens over him, in that order. I would watch Wehr this week, and if he holds his spot and plays round 13 after his bye, I would grab him then. If you are looking for a defender rookie, I would grab him as I think he will play after the bye.

Jarryd Lyons

An underpriced option to look at in midfield. Scored a season high 129 last week, albeit against Hawthorn, but with McCluggage out, he should be in a full time midfield role this week, but even with McCluggage being injured in the last quarter against the Hawks, Lyons was still in the guts before that. Down 151k and someone to consider, especially with the round 14 bye.

Stephen Coniglio

Looked back to the Stephen Coniglio of old last week, back playing his midfield role. He attended 22 CBA’s (59.5%) and should be back in that role for the forseeable future. For owners, they would be all very happy but as for a trade target, I would want to see him this week, then consider after his round 12 bye.

Other players to watch: Daniel Rich, Dayne Zorko, Harry Perryman, Josh Kelly, Jacob Wehr, Lachie Neale, Keidean Coleman

 

Geelong vs Adelaide @ GMHBA Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 14°C, partly cloudy

Team Lineups

Geelong

IN

 

OUT

Patrick Dangerfield (Injured)

Adelaide

IN

Reilly O’Brien, Jordon Butts, Matt Crouch, Wayne Milera

OUT

Taylor Walker (HS Protocols), Kieran Strachan (Omitted), Lachlan Sholl (Medi-Sub), Josh Rachele (Managed), Chayce Jones (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Jordan Dawson

Looked to be in for an average score, but showed why he looks everything like a top 6 defender. Scored 73 points in the 2nd half with a score of 111. Tough game against Geelong in Geelong, but still a great target with a high floor, and the Crows run after their bye looks really tasty.

Jake Soligo

The no.1 rookie option this week. Backed up the 59 he scored in round 9 with a 77, from 87% game time which was great to see. Should be in Adelaide’s team past their bye, and could be the for the rest of the year so jump on this week.

Cam Guthrie

An underpriced option a few people are looking at after a season high 114 last week. He has now gone 100+ in 4 of his last 5 games, and with Dangerfield being out, that means more points for Guthrie, as he normally scores more when Danger is out.

Other players to watch: Tom Stewart, Sam De Koning, Mitch Duncan, Cooper Stephens, Ben Keays, Reilly O’Brien, Rory Laird, Matt Crouch

 

Melbourne vs Fremantle @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 15°C, sunshine and clouds mixed

Team Lineups

Melbourne

IN

Jack Viney

OUT

Luke Dunstan (Omitted), Ed Langdon (Injured)

Fremantle

IN

Brandon Walker, Darcy Tucker

OUT

Neil Erasmus (Medi-Sub), Sam Switkowski (Suspension), Bailey Banfield (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Clayton Oliver

Went huge last week with a 151, which consisted of 45 disposals, 5 marks and 6 tackles. Really expensive now at 936k, but if you are keen on him and you need a round 14 bye player, he is one of the top options.

Christian Petracca

Thats now four 110+ scores in a row, and 5 of his last 6 over 110. Just continues to get it done each and every week for his owners. A great target still with many coaches struggling with round 14 bye players, and should be good once again this week, even against a tougher Fremantle midfield.

Will Brodie

After many people thought about trading him after his 62 against Geelong in round 7, he has followed that up with 3 tons in a row, including a season high score of 128 against Collingwood last week. Even though he is still only getting 65%-70% game time, it doesn’t matter, as he is still avergaing over 95 for the season. Looks like a hold past his round 14 bye.

Other players to watch: Angus Brayshaw, Andrew Brayshaw, Max Gawn, Sean Darcy, Caleb Serong

 

West Coast vs Western Bulldogs @ Optus Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 18°C, clear

Team Lineups

West Coast

IN

Josh Kennedy, Sam Petrevski-Seton

OUT

Josh Rotham (Omitted), Hugh Dixon (Omitted), Patrick Naish (Omitted)

Western Bulldogs

IN

Tim English, Taylor Duryea, Cody Weightman

OUT

Bailey Smith (Illness), Luke Cleary (Omitted), Roarke Smith (Medi-Sub), Zaine Cordy (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Greg Clark

Saved his score in the 2nd half by getting to 61. With West Coast getting some players back over the next couple of weeks, maybe his scores will be much like his last 2 weeks compared to his 110 on debut. Still making good cash, but if there is a move where you can move him to your bench, then that is definitely a play.

Marcus Bontempelli

Looks all but confirmed to get forward status, as he is currently sitting at 39% forward for the season (35% is the threshold to gain DPP). One of the best targets this week, with potential instant reward against West Coast and will get his DPP once this round is finished.

Bailey Smith

I don’t normally write about players not playing, but I thought I would include Bailey Smith here. Baz has been ruled out with illness, but is set to gain FWD status before next round as he is over the threshold of 35% (currently sitting around 38% FWD). I am an owner and will be holding as he will be back next week, and a valuable commodity for the rest of the season as he will a top 3 forward, and potentially be the no.1 scoring forward.

Other players to watch: Alex Witherden, Buku Khamis, Jack Macrae, Caleb Daniel, Bailey Dale, Isiah Winder, Callum Jamieson, Tim English, Josh Dunkley, Adam Treloar, Brady Hough, Robbie McComb

 

Gold Coast vs Hawthorn @ TIO Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 27°C, clear (65% humidity)

Team Lineups

Gold Coast

IN

Alex Davies, Caleb Graham, Jeremy Sharp

OUT

Rory Thompson (Injured), Brayden Fiorini (Omitted), Sean Lemmens (HS Protocols), Jy Farrar (Injured)

Hawthorn

IN

Connor Macdonald, Jack Scrimshaw

OUT

Max Lynch (Injured), Kyle Hartigan (Medi-Sub), Jaeger O’Meara (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Tom Mitchell

Is the Pig back? That is the question on everyones lips this week after a season high score of 120 against Brisbane. Only attended 18 CBA’s (48.6%), which is his 2nd lowest for the season, but from the eye test after watching this game, he was pushing right up into the midfield contest every time he started forward, so I don’t see the lack of CBA’s as much of  a problem. Priced at 795k, I think he is certainly an option to look at, especially as he has the round 14 bye.

Touk Miller

Has been quite up and down this season, shown by the fact he scored 128 against Fremantle in round 9, then followed it up with an 82 against the Bulldogs, mind you it was in Ballarat against a very tough opposition. I would trade him in this week, instead watch him over the next 2 weeks, then maybe target him after his round 13 bye.

Jarrod Witts

With all of the ruck chaos this week, people are looking to move Preuss to a premium ruck, and I think Jarrod Witts is the best option, and a great option. Up against Hawthorn this week who don’t have a ruck, and it is at TIO Stadium, with potentially more chance for hitouts.

Other players to watch: Sam Butler, Noah Anderson, Joel Jeffrey, James Sicily

 

St Kilda vs North Melbourne @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

***Roof Closed***

Team Lineups

St Kilda

IN

Mitch Owens, Dan Butler, Jarrod Lienert

OUT

 

North Melbourne

IN

Jack Mahony, Jaidyn Stephenson, Jackson Archer

OUT

 

 

Players to Watch

Jack Sinclair

Just continues to get it done every week, with another score of 111 against Adelaide last week. Has the round 12 bye which could be tricky for some coaches, but is a great target after that, with only 2 scores under 90 all season (80, 84). Is in the mix with the top 6 defenders.

Luke Davies-Uniacke

If your are looking for a round 14 bye player that could get you through to the round 14 bye, I think LDU could be an option. Priced at 649k, and last 3 scores of 81, 100 and 103, you could look at it. I personally wouldn’t do it, but if you couldn’t afford anyone above 700k, you could do a lot worse than LDU.

Jed Anderson

Now down at 670k as a forward, I think we need to keep an eye of Jed Anderson over the next few weeks. Back to back scores of 72 and 83 aren’t great, but looks to be playing a little bit more midfield, and still on limited game time as he works his way to full fitness. He may not become on option, but just a name to keep on your watchlist.

Other players to watch: Jason Horne-Francis, Marcus Windhager, Rowan Marshall, Jade Gresham, Brad Crouch

 

Collingwood vs Carlton @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 16°C, partly cloudy

Team Lineups

Collingwood

IN

Reef McInnes, Caleb Poulter, Trey Ruscoe

OUT

 

Carlton

IN

Jack Newnes, Jack Martin, Jordan Boyd, Paddy Dow

OUT

Brodie Kemp (Medi-Sub)

 

Players to Watch

Patrick Cripps

Has struggled the last 2 weeks playing this midfield-ruck role, with back to back scores of 76 and 71 worry a few coaches.  Hopefully we see Silvagni play that R2 role more around the ground meaning Crippa will be fine, but coaches will be worried if things don’t change this week.

Darcy Cameron

After hearing Mason Cox was going to be playing as the main ruck, many coaches were worried about what Cameron would end up scoring. A finger injury to Cox in the first quarter opened the door for Cameron to play as the main ruck, and boy did he deliver. Filled up the stat sheet with only 12 disposals, but had 7 marks, 8 tackles and 22 hitouts for 115. All but confirmed to get ruck status next round, which will be helpful for coaches with their R2 flexibility.

Jack Crisp

Even with him being sick all last week, it didn’t stop Crispy from cracking the ton again, scoring a 104 with less CBA’s. That’s now 6 of his last 7 games over 100, and the one game he didn’t, he scored 99. Should be great yet again against Carlton on Sunday, and back to his usual midfield role.

Other players to watch: Corey Durdin, Sam Walsh, Jordan De Goey, Sam Docherty, Taylor Adams, George Hewett, Nick Daicos, Jesse Motlop, Jack Carroll

Port Adelaide vs Essendon @ Adelaide Oval

Weather Forecast

Around 19°C, cloudy with periods of light rain (87% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

Port Adelaide

IN

Jed McEntee, Riley Bonner, Charlie Dixon

OUT

 

Essendon

IN

Andrew Phillips, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Jordan Ridley, Brayden Ham, Harrison Jones, Jye Caldwell

OUT

Nick Bryan (Omitted), Matt Guelfi (Injured), Mason Redman (Suspension)

 

Players to Watch

Zach Merrett

After a disgusting 51 in round 9, Merrett responded with 105, his first ton since round 6. Has been getting less CBA’s the last 2 weeks which is something to watch, but he is a guy to watch this week, as he could be a really good underpriced target after his round 12 bye.

Zak Butters

Has been solid the last 2 weeks, with his 94 last round his highest score since round 5. Good matchup against Essendon, but it is expected to be wet weather so he may not have his high ceiling, meaning owners will be hoping for an 80+.

Nic Martin

Most coaches will not be able to move Nic Martin on this week with all of the carnage going on, but if you can I think it is a good move. This game is expected to be wet, so he could be in for a poor score, and moving him on to an underpriced midfield option like Bont, Wines, Titch, Lyons, etc., is a great play.

Other players to watch: Dan Houston, Ben Hobbs, Darcy Parish, Connor Rozee, Ollie Wines, Travis Boak, Sam Hayes, Tex Wanganeen

 

My Trades

So my trades this week have been quite stressful, as I have all of Lachie Whitfield, Tim Taranto, Bailey Smith and Braydon Preuss out, so I have had to make a few options based on what I can do. These are the 4 options that I will choose from:

Option 1: if Paddy McCartin scores 60+, and Preuss and Sam Hayes are both out. Means I will keep all of Whitfield, Taranto and Bailey Smith

Carroll/Hough -> Soligo

Preuss -> Witts

 

Option 2: if Paddy McCartin scores less than 50, and Preuss and Sam Hayes are both out. Means I will keep Taranto and Bailey Smith

Preuss -> Witts

Whitfield -> Zorko

 

Option 3: if Paddy McCartin scores 60+, and one of Preuss or Sam Hayes are named. Means I will keep all of Whitfield, Taranto and Bailey Smith

Carroll -> Soligo

N Martin -> Wines/Mitchell

 

Option 4: if Paddy McCartin scores less than 50, and one of Preuss or Sam Hayes are named. Means I will keep Taranto and Bailey Smith

Carroll -> Soligo

Whitfield -> Docherty

I will post my final trades on Twitter before the Saturday games start, so stay tuned.

 

Anyway, thanks again everyone for reading the Weekend Forecast. If you have any questions about your starting teams, or anything else, leave your questions in the comments section below or hit me up at my Twitter or Instagram (links provided below).

Good luck for round 10!

Instagram: @baileyirrgang

Twitter: @baileyirrgang