The Thursday Scramble: Round 5

We’ve had a bit of a blessed start to the season with some massive scores and our Rookies firing. But now we are starting to have to make a few choices and we have a few things that we need to deal with.  This is where things start to get interesting and the game starts to become fun. It is what separates the astute coaches from the rest.  That being said… let’s Scramble!

A bit of Tribunal Action

So far we hadn’t been impacted too much but now we have two really relevant Tribunal Outcomes.

Brayden Preuss

After waiting a long time for Preuss to play and then him missing round 1 with suspension we now have Preuss out again this week with suspension. What a headache for the coaches that were relying on him at R2. We can be thankful that is just the one week that he is going to miss. This means that we can (assuming you have cover which I will discuss shortly) hold him for the one week on the bench. He could also be a very handy loophole player for you with the Giants not playing until Saturday night. What worries me most is that this is now two suspensions for the Giants big man in the first four weeks of the season (with the first one coming in the preseason). If he is going to miss a game every now and then through suspension it is only going to hurt us. The other thing it does is that it will give Flynn another chance to prove himself. If he has a good game then he could potentially keep Preuss out of the side again.  Hopefully not but you never want to give an even chance to your opponent for your position.

Paddy Ryder

Ryder being suspended for two weeks won’t impact too many teams directly but what it does do is that it means that Jack Hayes is likely to come back into the side. What great timing for those that have lost Preuss to suspension. It will give us the opportunity to put him back on field to fill the hole that Preuss will leave for this week. This two weeks should see Hayes make some nice price rises before he slips back to the VFL when Ryder returns.

A bit of Injury Action

Nic Naitanui

Naitanui missing for an extended period of time will hurt those that have him (mostly draft teams) but it can also help with the Preuss issue we talked about above. A lot of teams have Hugh Dixon in their side and with the number 1 ruck at the Eagles missing it is time for Dixon to take over. We should see Dixon’s job security take a jump and also his time on the ball. He has played well over the last couple of games and should make some great money for us as well as provide cover if we need it.

Patrick Cripps

Hands up if you got stuck in any form of the game with him as your captain.  I certainly did in a couple of forms which really hurt.  He was on 36 points at quarter time when he was subbed out and was looking like having a big score. Word has come through that his injury is a minor one but he will miss this week’s game against Port. However, it is expected he might only miss one week. That would be a pretty good return from a hamstring. I am not optimistic that he will miss just one but I am praying that is the case. The big question that has been hotly debated this week is do we trade him?  If it is just the one week that he is going to miss, then in Supercoach and RealDreamteam then the answer is no. We have learnt this over many years. In AFL Fantasy, with our two trades a week it is a bit different now. We can trade him out, but if you do this then you will find yourself behind in the upgrade cadence for your team and possibly be one premium behind everyone else when he makes his return.

The other question is who do you go to? Do you flip a defender or a forward to the mids and upgrade in those areas or do you do a straight swap in the midfield. These are all questions that you need to consider with your team structure and plans in mind. The other complicating factor is that we are only a round away from getting the first batch of DPP positional changes.  Now Warnie is keeping tight lipped on who he is giving it to, but there are bound to be rookies that will get positions added because they are now playing roles that they didn’t play as a junior.

So this could change things altogether next week when guys like Daicos possibly have defensive status.  But, no matter who you think should get it, don’t put all your chocolate eggs in that basket because as we have seen before it isn’t always the obvious ones that get it.

Upgrade Season is here!…. isn’t it?

Round 5 traditionally is around about the start of the time in the year when we start to cull the rookies and pick up the fallen premiums (or in Calvin’s case the fully priced ones). Interestingly though this year our popular rookies aren’t all ready for the cull as some have been scoring pretty well and hence could spend another couple of weeks making some cash.  Similarly there are some premiums out there with some pretty big break evens to their name and still have further to fall.

This is where the strategy of the game can be at its’ best. Everyone asks when is the right time to either trade out or bring in.  Most will say it is when their BE is below or above their average (depending on if you are selling or buying) and that is the time that we do it.  But sometimes you just have to jump that little bit early. It might not be ideal but sometimes it can work to your advantage to go a little early to get extra points and also to free up next week’s trades to allow the next upgrade/downgrade to happen.  You will always find that at some stage during the year you will get to a point where you have two guys that you want to trade out or trade in because their price is going to have a big movement in the following week (in a bad way for you) so you pick one and often will miss the other one.  If you are planning far enough ahead you can avoid this to some degree and hopefully build a better team faster.

Also keep an eye on the Fallen Premiums.  Just because they have been a great scorer in the past and they are having a slow scoring start to the season it doesn’t mean they are a must pick up. There is usually a reason that their scoring hasn’t reached the levels that you were thinking of. The main case in point is Tom Mitchell. His scoring has been well down on what we would normally expect from him but many have said this is due to the direction that the new coach Sam Mitchell is taking and that is that he is playing the youth and trying to get different bodies through the midfield. So take the role and other factors such as injury into play before you do bring in a fallen priced premium.

Things to Remember

• We won’t get all the teams before the start of the round.  Hawks v Geelong is on Monday so those teams won’t be out on Thursday night.
• It is a good idea to plan your trades a week or two in advance. We know that things change but if they don’t it is good to have a plan.
• This is when we start to get ahead of the rest of the comp by starting to upgrade and get our teams to full premium as soon as we can.

Have a great Easter weekend everyone and hopefully your team scores a heap of points!  As I said, start to look at how you are going to strengthen your side and who you want to bring in over the coming weeks as things will get hectic with all the ins and outs and if you plan ahead at least you will have somewhere to start from (but I guarantee there will be an injury or a player dropped that will throw a spanner in the works).