Connect with us

Around The Grounds

Dons v Dogs – Scratch Match Fantasy notes

Warnie watched Essendon take on the Western Bulldogs, notepad in hand.

It was great to have the afternoon off (Launceston Cup, half day holiday!!) to watch the Bombers – oh, and Dogs – in their first hitout for the year. It was also great for the boys in the red-and-black to grab the four points, err win, and probably become premiership favourites from here on.

Anyway… just as I’ve talked some rubbish here, we should be reminded that pre-season games – these praccy matches specifically – should all be taken with a grain of salt.

That being said, there was a bit to take out of the game. The eye test is an important thing. Watching a game without stats is cathartic. Trust your eyes. That’s something that I tried to do watching the game via the Kayo stream (a few dodgy moments made for some interesting pixelated viewing), however I did set up a spreadsheet to track the CBAs.

Let’s get into my takeaways from the opening game of these scratch matches. Make sure you add your two cents in the comments!

Notable absentees: Michael Hurley, Jake Stringer (no AAMI either, but trained this morning), Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (running, a fair bit off)

Players of interest (in no particular order):

Darcy Parish

Looked sensational! Hungry, fit and in play all over the ground. I’ve been a bit of an ‘avoid’ guy this pre-season, but he’s definitely a first choice midfielder. He attended the most centre bounces of all midfielders in the first half, only missing one. Parish won plenty of his own ball and ran hard to link up play. Every chance to be a top eight midfielder. Still, an upgrade target for me in Classic, but I’ll adjust my Draft rankings as I was maybe a little harsh.

Zach Merrett

He’s a midfielder. Plain and simple. In some play, he found himself behind the ball but that could be the extent of his ‘back role’ that was floated. Same old Zerrett.

Andrew McGrath

It was clear from the get-go that McGrath is being seriously looked at as a half-back this year. It’s super-interesting as there’s Heppell and Hind doing a lot of the run and carry there, bringing it out of the D50. McGrath was almost like a busy, inside half-back (could that even be a thing?!). Everything I saw today would say he’ll gain DEF status early on… and was still finding a bit of the ball. Stats next week will be important to track for Draft coaches.

Dylan Shiel

He’s fit – bump him up the draft order. That 63 next to his name in Draft is A LONG way from what he’ll be considering he averaged 100 in his first to seasons as a Don.

Jye Caldwell

Don’t panic … but, the midfield minutes may not be there to see him average enough to be the value we need him to be. With just 3 CBAs in what looked like a very settled rotation (especially in the first half, when it was more ‘real’), Caldwell may spend a bit of time as a half-forward. Stringer was out, which may have upset some of the rotations, but if you’re picking Caldwell based on a full-blown engine room role, then this is a flag. In saying this, he started well and got his hands on the ball a lot. Playing off the HFF didn’t mean that’s where he stayed… he was all over the ground.

Ben Hobbs

Was used in all but one CBA in the last quarter when he was finally brought on and given a run. Possibly doesn’t play R1 (you’d think he would have had more minutes), but will get games this year. Looked solid.

Jordan Ridley

Things were looking dicey early on for Ridley, but after about quarter time, he got his game on and ended up as best on ground according to Cal Twomey. Took quite a few intercept marks, due to being free of playing a key defensive role with Kelly in the team (and maybe the fact it was a praccy match). Kick-ins aren’t going to be a major thing. The Bombers rotated through a fair bit – Redman, Cutler, McGrath all had at least one. I was keen in content season, and I believe there is upside, but I won’t be starting in Classic at this stage. 90+ is definitely on the cards if he can be taking marks like he was today – including this one. Probably more stoked on how he played as a Bombers supporter than through my Fantasy glasses.

Other notes

  • Sam Draper is a jet. He’ll have Wright chopping out, but it won’t be much at all. Love him as a player. Might be 10-15 best ruck in your draft rankings.
  • Archie Perkins was given a few CBAs in the second half. He has come on a bit. Keeper league relevant (could retain FWD status?).
  • Nick Hind was playing a similar role to last year. He was used as a forward late in the season, no signs of this apart from his great run up the field.
  • Kyle Langford always has me thinking of gaining DPP in draft. Looked to be wing with the odd CBA.
  • Kaine Baldwin‘s body looked like he was AFL ready.
  • Tex Wanganeen came on in the last quarter and was electric, kicking two goals. Has been handed a spot on the list – hello FWD $190k who may get an opportunity as a small forward while AMT is out – alongside Nick Martin (who I kept hearing Mick Martyn and having flashbacks to the mid-90s).

Notable absentees: Bailey Smith (groin soreness), Hayden Crozier, Sam Darcy, Josh Bruce, Tim O’Brien, Alex Keath

Players of interest (in no particular order):

Adam Treloar

Possibly the Dogs’ best. While he was rested late in the game (he has been managed this pre-season), Treloar looked fantastic hitting close to half of the CBAs available for his TOG. This is all he really needs … although a few more would help! He was all over the ground – even when starting forward – and I’ve got no doubt that he’s super-value priced at 87 with the MID/FWD status. It’s a gift based on how he looked today.

Josh Dunkley

Time in the middle increased with the Bont out of the game after half-time. The mix will be important to track next week. It’s Libba, Macrae then the rotation between Dunkley, Treloar and Bont. While Treloar looked ‘better’ today, there was nothing not to like about Dunks. I don’t have a good read on what he scored – role was good, not sure about how much he racked up (tackles a big part of his game, but not many laid today).

Jack Macrae

Just gets it done. Must have started on the bench but when he hit his first CBA, he only missed two of the next 19. As mentioned above, he’s second banana to Libba. The inclusion of Bailey Smith doesn’t change stuff here. I guess seeing full clock from Bont is the only factor in what he did. Looked like a typical 110+ type game from Macrae.

Tim English & Stefan Martin

Split CBAs 50/50, but I felt like I saw English rucking around the ground a bit more. Stef looked fit (when doesn’t he?!) … so I’m not really sure I can back in English this year. Really sucks as I have him in my keeper.

Other notes

  • Marcus Bontempelli hit all the CBAs in the first quarter and then played mostly forward in the second. There’s been a bit of talk about an increased forward role, but this was him ticking his legs over today (and still looking like a man among boys at times).
  • Caleb Daniel was busy and was taking kick-ins with Bailey Dale, who was also impressive out of the backline.
  • Jason Johannisen could, could, could be worth using a late round draft pick on…

Co-captain of DT Talk since we started this thing in 2007. Best finish was 13th in 2009... that was a long time ago. Follow on Twitter: @WarnieDT

21 Comments

21 Comments

  1. Straight shooter

    February 23, 2022 at 9:40 pm

    Thx for your insight big dog great stuff true legend mate

  2. K

    February 23, 2022 at 9:47 pm

    Absolute rookie question here but what is a keeper league? And great content thanks!

    • Warnie

      February 24, 2022 at 5:23 am

      A draft league where you’re able to keep X amount of players year on year.

  3. Riley

    February 23, 2022 at 10:08 pm

    Given Dunkley’s scoring prowess as a high half-forward who pushes up to the midfield, is 40%+ a good amount of centre bounces for him to be averaging 100-105 or does it need to be closer to 50%?

    • Warnie

      February 24, 2022 at 5:25 am

      Yeah. It’s an interesting one. I need to have a good look at what his CBAs were like prior to injury. That’s what we want him doing.

  4. Ryan

    February 23, 2022 at 10:11 pm

    Shame about English, have him in my Keeper League and am getting impatient at this point!

  5. Squid

    February 23, 2022 at 11:19 pm

    Awww yeah, now it’s starting to get real, love this time of year.

    Top stuff Warnie, keep these coming, don’t suppose you could give us a Heppell heads up?

    • Warnie

      February 24, 2022 at 5:23 am

      Same old. He was there to tick the legs over.

      • Squid

        February 24, 2022 at 7:36 am

        Cheers, just easing in like a veteran, nice, very close to a lock for me.

  6. Jim

    February 24, 2022 at 12:53 am

    Warnie how is shiel priced @ 93? Played 8 games @ 66 in 2020? Its crazy to use 2019 average 102 (15 games) Why? Noone will consider him @ 93. Just means we all have the same few players to consider…..

    • Warnie

      February 24, 2022 at 5:22 am

      If you’re not across how the pricing works, check out dreamteamtalk.com/2022prices. The structure/formula may have some guys end up being ‘overpriced’ (in your mind), but it saves from some ridiculously underpriced guys – which is even worse for the game – making more gimme picks which is exactly what you’re against. FYI – Shiel is still cheaper than what he produced in the couple of seasons prior.

  7. Stevo

    February 24, 2022 at 9:21 am

    Thanks for a great write-up. I was worried about the roles of guys like Dunkley and Treloar, and was thinking to go with cheaper guys like Heeney and Butters as my premo Forwards, but I’ll have to re-think that now. Those CBAs for Dunkley make him pretty much a must-have, if that’s confirmed in the next trial game.

    • Double Parked

      February 24, 2022 at 9:27 am

      By half time both Dunks and Treloar had ~50% CBAs. Dunkley went up dramatically after half time when Bont was subbed. Though from the first half it seemed they were rolling with a split of:
      Libba: 75%
      Macrae: 75%
      Bont: 50%
      Treloar: 50%
      Dunkley: 50%

      I think at those splits Dunks and Treloar are must haves. Forward line is definitely the one to go deep in, I reckon I’ll have a couple spill into the midfield given how much value they represent.

  8. Jim

    February 25, 2022 at 12:48 am

    My apologies warnie, not looking to get into your grill. Should have started with much appreciate the preseason write up. Just think there are a few anomilies with the pricing formula. Shiel and prestia are two examples. Both have had 2 years of injury interrupted seasons – are injury prone – and are imo made irrelevant by the formula in classic (reflected in less than 1% ownership). They are both priced higher than dunkley, treleor, cripps, m. crouch, sicily, dangerfield etc. cheers jim

    • Double Parked

      February 25, 2022 at 1:34 am

      Hi Jim, there aren’t any anomalies with the pricing, at least with the players you’ve mentioned. When a player plays less than 10 games in the season, their price is based on their best average from the 2 most recent seasons. Then for every game less than 10 that they played, they receive an additional 3% discount.

      Take Dylan Shiel for example:
      Played 7 games in 2021 at an average of 63.1.
      Played 15 games in 2020 at an average of 81.7 (adjusted to 102.1 due to shortened quarters in 2020)

      Therefore Shiel’s price is based on his 2020 average of 102.1, from which he receives a 9% discount due to playing only 7 games in 2021 (3 games less than 10). Therefore, he is priced at 92.9. You can verify this is correct in the app by comparing his price to Salem, who averaged 92.9 in 2021.

      Hope this helps

      • Double Parked

        February 25, 2022 at 1:37 am

        Dangerfield, Dunkley, Cripps and Treloar all played over 10 games, so they are simply priced at their 2021 average. Sicily and Crouch missed the entirety of 21, so they each receive a 30% discount on their covid adjusted average in 2020.

        • Double Parked

          February 25, 2022 at 1:42 am

          Though I’m pretty sure there is one anomaly in Sam Skinner. I don’t understand how he is basement priced given be played 2 games in 2020 at an average of 49.5 (61.9 adjusted). Should really be priced at 43.3, so around 362k.

          • Warnie

            February 25, 2022 at 6:53 am

            I’m not sure what happened there. Could be a quirk in the system after being delisted (unlikely, but may have changed his ID which ‘wiped’ his data – this hasn’t happened before). Prices aren’t done manually – there’s a database/spreadsheet that is way above my ability to pump it all out.

  9. Double Parked

    February 25, 2022 at 1:34 am

    Hi Jim, there aren’t any anomalies with the pricing, at least with the players you’ve mentioned. When a player plays less than 10 games in the season, their price is based on their best average from the 2 most recent seasons. Then for every game less than 10 that they played, they receive an additional 3% discount.

    Take Dylan Shiel for example:
    Played 7 games in 2021 at an average of 63.1.
    Played 15 games in 2020 at an average of 81.7 (adjusted to 102.1 due to shortened quarters in 2020)

    Therefore Shiel’s price is based on his 2020 average of 102.1, from which he receives a 9% discount due to playing only 7 games in 2021 (3 games less than 10). Therefore, he is priced at 92.9. You can verify this is correct in the app by comparing his price to Salem, who averaged 92.9 in 2021.

    Hope this helps

  10. Jim

    February 25, 2022 at 2:00 am

    thanks dp, im not suggesting that the calculation is wrong just that the formula produces prices for some players that don’t pass the pub test. Appreciate you explaining the calculation. Cheers
    Jim

    • Warnie

      February 25, 2022 at 7:01 am

      The issue is that whatever formula you use can have questions asked. This came in a few years ago when pricing was putting players ridiculously cheap (Kerridge was one) based on how the prices were calculated. There was a lot of feedback on transparent formulas. Rather than arbitrary changes – which raise eyebrows – a ‘simple’ formula which discounts players on the higher average of the last two years is more realistic overall. Shiel and Prestia’s injury interrupted seasons would be built into their average if it hampered them … and then they are discounted off that figure. It wouldn’t be wise to whack in some injury clause in a formula. The pricing formula needs to be as transparent and simple as possible.

      As you say to pass the pub test, the formula needs to be consistent (and not be too convoluted so it’s ‘easy’ to understand).

      Whatever you do, there’s going to be something that doesn’t sit right. For example, if Shiel or Coniglio were priced based on their 2021 average alone (or heavens forbid, discounted based on that number) they would be must-haves, which would be terrible for the game. Making a handful of players irrelevant is better than making some no-brainers, making for less variation in teams.

      Anyway – everyone is playing by the same rules.

Leave a Reply

More in Around The Grounds