Noah Anderson – Deck of DT 2022

Name: Noah Anderson
Team: Gold Coast
Position: MID
Price: $679,000
Bye round: 13
2021 average: 81
2021 games played: 20
Predicted average: 90
Draft range: M4 range

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Why should I pick him?

If Noah Anderson played for Fremantle, and we didn’t feel visibly sick seeing so many under-priced Suns players sitting in our starting midfield, then Anderson would enjoy a far greater ownership than his current 0.92%. This is especially compared to his fellow 2019 draftee Caleb Serong who averaged 82.4 and sits in 26% of teams (including mine).

The reasons for Anderson are similar to the reasons for Serong: one midfield spot to fill from 2021 rotation (Cerra and Greenwood), potential for third year breakout (82 for Serong compared to 81 for Anderson), increasing disposal count for second year player (Serong 22.87 to Anderson’s 22.65) top draft picks with a history of high scoring, attended a high amount of CBA’s for a second year player (71 % Serong compared to Anderson 47%), plus a solid increase from a good first year (Anderson 58.9 to 81 with Serong 67.2 to 82.3) and lastly the potential small impediment of an under-priced player joining the club (Constable and Brodie).

An interesting stat which helps Anderson is that with Serong #1 in average disposal count of the 2019 draft class, Anderson is 2 with Green 3 at 20 and Ash 4 at 18- which again is at least saying Anderson could track similarly to Serong and potentially go 90-95, but it does depend on how successful Rowell is in lifting his 2021 average of 14. But let’s look a bit deeper at Anderson!

Anderson started like a second-year breakout player in 2021 when the Suns were playing ok football. After a sluggish 66 in Round 1, he went 120 R2, 118 R4 and 120 R6.  In those high scoring rounds he went 64, 29 and 73 % CBA. In fact, his CBA attendance fluctuated throughout the year, when he went and played on the wing. It tended to correspond to Swallow/Greenwood and Weller or if another mid was out injured like Miller in R9. Therefore, it is not like the Suns have an amazing stack of proven 24-year-old plus players holding Anderson back from increased CBA’s and midfield minutes.

Anderson had a down spot in the middle of the season, but from round 18 his scoring once again picked up. However, this was not because of increased CBA, as his CBA’s only reached over 50% once and that was in round 23.  This shows Anderson scored reasonably good numbers for a second-year player whether he plays in the midfield or on the wing (McCluggage style). He had a last 3 game average of 96.5 and a five-game average of 86.8.

Another factor for considering Anderson is his low TOG%. For Anderson it is not as simple as he scored high in high TOG games and low in low TOG. For example, he had 87% TOG against Collingwood in R7 for a score of 78 compared to his 120 against the Swans in R6 on 77%. However, it is a safe rule to assume- it is hard to score highly when not on the ground. Anderson had multiple games of TOG below 80% and some in the 60’s and some injury affected games. In 2 low scoring games, against North he scored 49 from 40% TOG and 36 against Fremantle with 74 % TOG although for 2 quarters he was hardly sighted.

Therefore, even with a modest increase in game time and avoiding in game injuries he is at least 5-10 points under-priced.

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

How many Suns players do you want in your side, especially the midfield, if you have Rowell at M6. Assuming you are not frightened by the sight of Suns in your midfield and hey if you ended the last season with 2 Suns you were awesome (Miller and Fiorini) then you still might say, ‘there are a lot of value mids in the mid-to-high 600’s and from the following list you might choose 3-4 and therefore Anderson just misses out’: Yeo 696K, Serong 691K, Cripps 682K, Uniacke 684K, Martin MID/FWD 682K, Thomas MID/FWD 681K, Graham 681K MID/FWD, Bolton 652K MID/FWD  Parfitt 642K, Drew 633 K, Rowbottom 634K.

Another cause to pause is the midfield balance with a fit Rowell looking like an inside midfielder, whilst Anderson can score well in a secondary position, namely the wing. I refer you DCcaterpillars excellent articles on the importance of high CBA’s for uber-premium midfield scores where McCluggage at 100 is the best of the non-high CBA attenders. Basically, it flags that if Anderson’s CBA’s sit around 50% than the scoring is likely to be lower than hoped; maybe 90 instead of 95-100 unless he’s the new Andrew Gaff from 2019 where as a winger he went 111.9.

Therefore, the preseason CBA balance at the Suns will be interesting: if it is Miller, Rowell, and Anderson with Fiorini juggling the wing with Anderson than get on. But if Anderson is mainly on the wing and Swallow and new-boy Constable are in the centre than he might be more of a risk than the safer options.

Deck of DT Rating.

KING 

I like the chances of Anderson going above 90. The preseason is a massive watch regarding not just his CBA’s but the mix of Suns players going through the middle. The Suns have a number of winger-types (Ellis, Fiorini, Flanders, Atkins, Weller and maybe even Lukosius and the potential of playing Davies there means Anderson could be a 50-50 player). Therefore, he is likely to be given a good CBA role because he is a better midfielder than all those winger-types, except for Fiorini.

Also, as a comparison, in 2019 McCluggage went 91.1 after a 77 in 2018 and I think that 14-point upside for a winger who attends 50% CBA’s could still make Anderson a king as he goes from 81 to 95. The question is, is Anderson’s 81 to 95 more likely than the above group of 600K midfielders?

 

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