Weekend Forecast – Round 17

***Live stream of the Weekend Forecast will be on my YouTube channel. Make sure to tune in as I will be answering your questions during the live stream. Also, feel free to subscribe to my YouTube channel and leave a like on the video. Would be very much appreciated.***

Make sure you tune into the live stream of the Weekend Forecast, as I am lucky enough to have Warnie join me as we go through the upcoming round and answer your questions during the show.

 

Last week was a banging round with many coaches, with many of our premiums going huge and hitting 130+ allowing some coaches to score over 2400+ points. Some coaches even went bigger than that and scored 2500+! As for some others, injuries and dud scores from rookies, players that won’t be in many peoples finals 22 and even some premiums failing in such a high scoring week.

 

Thursday Night Footy – Port Adelaide vs Melbourne @ Adelaide Oval

In a finals like contest, the Dees were able to bounce back after their slight form slump against the Power who still haven’t been able to beat a team above them on the ladder this year.

Petracca (153) – Was absolutely huge last night, having one of the best well rounded games this year. 33 touches, to go with 8 marks, 6 tackles and 3 goals in an amazing display by the Trac. Fell down to as low as 739k but will now be over 800k next week. Also, if you were lucky enough to have him VC, I think you know what you’re doing, you’re taking that!

Karl Amon (130) – Has quietly been putting together a decently strong fantasy season, now averaging 96.9. Take out that one score of 35 against Collingwood, he hasn’t gone below 70 all year. Great pickup if you grabbed him in draft.

Christian Salem (108) – Really hitting some great form that’s now tons in a row, and a lowest score of 98 in his last 4. Going to be priced at somewhere around 700k, but will still be a really nice POD to bring in with a nice run towards the end of the year.

Max Gawn (108) – Just did his thing last night, 18 touches to go with 5 marks and 31 hitouts, with 2 behinds so could have been bigger. Hasn’t had that 130+ ceiling tis year with Jackson playing more ruck time, but him and Grundy are still so much better then all of the other rucks not named Sean Darcy.

Ollie Wines (105) – Nice to see yet another ton from Ollie. Only had the 3 marks and 2 tackles which meant he didn’t go 120+. What a pick he has been this year.

Clayton Oliver (98) – Still frustrating for owners not being able to hit the ton. Started really hot, but did get tagged by Willem Drew from quarter time. Not the worst score in the world, only 2 points away from a ton and got tagged, but considering he had 9 tons from his first 11 games, he only has 1 ton in his last 5, and hasn’t gone over 110 since round 11.

James Harmers (62) – Talk about saving your score! Was on 12 points at half time, ended up on 62. Still not a great score, but considering where he was, it wasn’t a bad recovery in the end.

Dan Houston (57) – Had another really quiet game, and now that is back to back quiet games. He was meant to be great value, but hasn’t really delivered over the last fortnight. Lucky he has a great run till the end of the season, but if you have no rookies left and can get to a Salem, Hurn, Rich, or even Newman if he continues scoring well this week, you could do it.

Now, let’s get into the rest of the Weekend Forecast.

 

Essendon vs Adelaide @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 7°C, mainly clear

Team Lineups

Essendon

IN

Martin Gleeson

OUT

Dyson Heppell (Injured), Brayden Ham (Omitted)

Adelaide

IN

Elliott Himmelberg, Lachlan Murphy

OUT

Taylor Walker (Injured), Jackson Hately (Medi-Sub), Luke Brown (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Zach Merrett

Probably the best VC option this week, Merrett should be big tonight, especially with back to back scores of 143 and 153. This is the ceiling we have wanted from Zach all year, and he is starting to deliver those 130+ scores we know he can.

Darcy Parish

Same for Darcy Parish, who is having an amazing season. A very nice POD VC option as most other people will go Zach. So if you want to go against the grain, it is a nice option.

Jordon Ridley

With Dyson Heppell being out this week, expect Ridley to have a nice game. Should take even more kick ins this week.

Rory Laird

Should continue on his merry way tonight and have a great game. Besides that score of 75 against Richmond, he hasn’t gone below 117 since round 8. What a jet! You could even loophole Lairdy.

Hawthorn vs Fremantle @ UTAS Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 13°C, mainly sunny

Team Lineups

Hawthorn

IN

Emerson Jeka, Tyler Brockman, Denver Grainger-Barras

OUT

Jai Newcombe (Omitted), Oliver Hanrahan (Omitted), Tim O’Brien (Omitted), Damon Greaves (Omitted)

Fremantle

IN

Bailey Banfield

OUT

Brett Bewley (Injured), Mitch Crowden (Medi-Sub)

 

Players to Watch

Tom Mitchell

Should be big this week, especially since he is back at pig park. One of the best captain options following the VC on Friday night, but you could easily loophole him as he plays the first game on Saturday if you wanted to go something different from Merrett, Parish and Laird.

Tyler Brockman

Brockman returns after not playing since round 4. If you still have him on your pine, like myself, it will be good to see him make some more money.

 

Carlton vs Geelong @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 13°C, partly cloudy

Team Lineups

Carlton

IN

Zac Williams

OUT

Matthew Cottrell (Medi-Sub), Tom Williamson (Omitted)

Geelong

IN

Mark O’Connor, Esava Ratugolea, Shaun Higgins

OUT

Luke Dahlhaus (Managed), Jeremy Cameron (Injured), Quinton Narkle (Omitted), Joel Selwood (Managed)

 

Players to Watch

Sam Walsh

I expect Mark O’Connor to tag Walsh on Saturday so I wouldn’t be expected a 120+ score which he has been doing consistently lately. Only got to 57 last time he was tagged.

Nic Newman

Still a great option to bring in under 600k. Took the majority of the kick ins, and racking up +6’s in the Blues defence with back to back scores of 110+.

Matt Kennedy

The cheapest of the 3 mid priced forwards, probably has the best floor out of the 3 of them, as he looks safe to score 80+. A sideways move from a Phillips type is still a great trade to do.

Patrick Dangerfield

Another great underpriced option to bring in, on the back of his 149 last week. With the Cameron injury, some people are worried if he will play more forward time with Jeremy Cameron out, but Ratugolea has come back into the team and both Selwood and Narkle are not playing this week so I expect to see Danger in the guts for the majority of the game Saturday arvo.

Brisbane vs St Kilda @ Metricon Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 14°C, clear skies

Team Lineups

Brisbane

IN

James Madden, Lachie Neale

OUT

Rhys Mathieson (Omitted), Jason Prior (Medi-Sub), Jarrod Berry (Injured)

St Kilda

IN

Zak Jones

OUT

Josh Battle (Omitted), Jack Higgins (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Lachie Neale

Lachie is back in the team this week after being a late out against the Crows with a calf niggle. I would want to watch him this week before pulling the trigger and bring him in.

Jack Steele

Has been on fire as of the late. His last 5 scores, 118, 137, 133, 114 and a massive 157 last week. Should be great again, even though it is a tougher matchup against the Lions.

 

GWS vs Gold Coast @ MARS Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 10°C, partly cloudy

Team Lineups

GWS

IN

Jesse Hogan, Sam Taylor, Matt De Boer, Xavier O’Halloran

OUT

Jack Buckley (Injured)

Gold Coast

IN

Caleb Graham, Rory Atkins, Zac Smith, Hugh Greenwood

OUT

Josh Corbett (Injured)

 

Players to Watch

Isaac Cumming

Wasn’t as good last week with Ash back in the team, and Perryman also back there. He should be back this week, but if he struggles again you could offload him to a bigger premium as he is now up to 671k. Let’s cross that bridge if we come to it.

Tim Taranto/Lachie Whitfield/Josh Kelly

I expect all 3 to be great this week. You could even make one of them your fall back captain option, with Taranto being the pick of the 3 due to the higher ceiling he has shown this year, but I wouldn’t be surprise if Whitfeld hits his first 130+ score this year or Kelly does what he did against North Melbourne.

Jack Bowes

With Collins back I the team, had a less lockdown role and was able to roam free a bit more with a score of 98. If we see something again this week that indicates he is back to the role he was doing at the start of the year, at somewhere around 550k, could be an option.

Western Bulldogs vs Sydney @ Marvel Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 15°C, cloudy

Team Lineups

Western Bulldogs

IN

Hayden Crozier, Jordon Sweet, Lachlan McNeil, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (Debut), Ed Richards, Josh Schache

OUT

Aaron Naughton (Injured), Toby McLean (Omitted), Patrick Lipinski (Omitted)

Sydney

IN

Dylan Stephens, Colin O’Riordan, Callum Sinclair

OUT

 

 

Players to Watch

Jack Macrae

After failing under 100 for the first time this year, I expect a response from Jack this week. Sydney can be tough to score on on their day, but Jack has still gathered 30+ touches in each game this season and I think that will continue on Sunday.

Jake Lloyd

Everyone is still disappointed after his 57 against Port in round 15, but I am actually one looking to bring him in as soon as I can. Now at 693k and will most likely drop in price again this week, he has an insanely easy run to finish up the year with GWS, Fremantle, Essendon, St Kilda, North Melbourne and Gold Coast.

 

Richmond vs Collingwood @ MCG

Weather Forecast

Around 15°C, partly to mostly cloudy

Team Lineups

Richmond

IN

Daniel Rioli, Matthew Parker (Debut), Rhyan Mansell, Sydney Stack, Toby Nankervis, Will Martyn

OUT

Bachar Holi (Injured), Callum Coleman-Jones (Injured), Shane Edwards (Injured)

Collingwood

IN

Will Kelly, Trey Ruscoe, Oliver Henry, Jack Ginnivan (Debut), Callum Brown

OUT

Josh Daicos (Injured), Caleb Poulter (Omitted)

 

Players to Watch

Jayden Short

As many of us know, he had a field day against Collingwood in the preseason, racking up 43 touches and 171 points! We haven’t seen that same ceiling this year, but I think he will be big this week. With Houli missing this week as well and most likely for the season, that only further helps Short.

Dustin Martin

After a sub par performance last week of only 69, I expect a response from Dusty this week, and I hope it is a 100+ as we haven’t seen him hit that as much as we would like this season.

Brodie Grundy

A great captain option this week if your VC fails. Nank is back for his first game for a while this week, so I expect RuckPig to use his tank against Toby this week. See what I did there.

Jordon De Goey

He has bee awesome playing midfield the last 4 weeks. Only one score below 100, and a massive 124 last week with 32 disposals and 9 marks. Still only 574k, a great option to bring in and one I am considering.

Taylor Adams

Been really good since returning, with back to back scores of 116 and 109. I expect Adams to average at least 105+ for the rest of the year, and is a great option at 730k to bring in, and has a pretty good run of games to add to his appeal.

 

West Coast vs North Melbourne @ Optus Stadium

Weather Forecast

Around 19°C, rain likely (90% chance of rain)

Team Lineups

West Coast

IN

Jackson Nelson, Liam Ryan, Xavier O’Neill, Brendon Ah Chee, Josh Rotham, Andrew Gaff

OUT

Alex Witherden (Injured), Jack Redden (Injured), Jamaine Jones (Injured)

North Melbourne

IN

Charlie Lazzaro, Jared Polec, Tom Campbell, Patrick Walker (Debut)

OUT

Eddie Ford (Medi-Sub)

 

Players to Watch

Tim Kelly/Elliot Yeo

Are you looking for an underpriced midfielder with a great run home? Then I think Kelly and Yeo are great options. Both had good games last week even though they got smashed, with scores of 98 and 118 respectively. Kelly is at 567k and Yeo 605k, so they are both at least 100k less than what they can do.

Andrew Gaff

Gaff looks like he is back this week, and it would have been frustrating for his coaches and added salt into the wound after being a late out on Saturday last week, to go with the fact he has been really poor this year. If he is all good, he should be able to get back and gives his coaches a ton this week, back at Optus against the Roos. If he can start playing well, what a bargain he would be under 680k.

Aaron Hall

Just gets it done for us. Every. Single. Week. Take out that score of 88 against Gold Coast (which isn’t a bad score at all), in his 11 full games this year, he hasn’t gone below 98, and 7 of those scores are 120+. Ridiculous. Another good fall back captain option on Monday night.

My Trades

Poulter -> Jacob Edwards (move Amartey to F6)

Highmore -> Mills/De Goey

So my first trade as mentioned, I would be able to move Amartey onto my field at F6 which gives me a heap of cash, which I want to use on top of a rookie and finally bring in Callum Mills. He has an insanely easy run to finish the year after this week (as Dogs are a little tougher on mids), Giants, Fremantle, Essendon, St Kilda, North Melbourne, and Gold Coast. I have however thought about bringing in De Goat instead. Bringing in De Goey leaves me with 223k for next week so I have contemplated that, but at this stage, I will stick with getting Mills who is a guaranteed top 6 defender.

 

Anyway, thanks again everyone for reading the Weekend Forecast. If you have any questions regarding trades, or anything else, leave your questions in the comments section below or hit me up at my Twitter or Instagram (links provided below).

Good luck for the round 17!

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Twitter: @baileyirrgang