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Trent’s Take: Looking for Value

Get the good oil from last year’s winner on some bargain picks.

Hunting for value, especially when you don’t have the cash to just get in an 800K midfielder, is where a lot of our teams are currently at. The aim is to assess some value options and their potential trade in value. I am determining value as a player who satisfies both criteria below (next week we’ll look at the opposite- namely players who are value because of low scores and or injuries):

  1. Below 700 K (this is because if you are reading this article, you probably can isolate the top players already).
  2. My projected run home projected average for the player is significantly higher than their current average (or in cases of injury returns- their last 3 or 5 run average) and a low Round 17 BE.

To save time and space if you are interested in De Goey, M. Kennedy, Stringer, T. Kelly, and Yeo then read last week’s article.

Patrick Dangerfield

$671k
R16 149
AVG 90.7
BE 63

Like many coaches who didn’t bring in Dangerfield last week, we were planning of bringing him in this week.  Probably less analysis the better here- just buy him. Geelong play Carlton, Fremantle, Richmond and North and with Danger mainly playing midfield time, it is just an immediate trade in this week. The only danger is his dodgy ankle which got jumped on, so even though he played out the game, if Geelong are cantering to a top 2 spot by the end of the season there is a chance Danger could get a rest. Many will recall Danger resting forward late in the season last year to ease his body toward the finals; continue to monitor Geelong team news.

Jack Bowes

$539k
R16 98
AVG 87
BE 78

Bowes’ 5 game average of 63 is reflective of a defensive role he was employed in (especially when Collins is out) and the 42 he scored against the Lions. The last two weeks he is back to a role much like at the start of the season. And if sides start to put work into Lukosius then Bowes should average around the 90-95 mark. The Suns play GWS, Bulldogs and Melbourne over the next three weeks.  GWS are not known as a front half restricting team with Salem 126, Rivers 90 and May 84 whilst the Bulldogs allowed Tarrant and Hall to rack them up.

Nic Newman

$595k
R16 115
AVG 86
BE 56

The injury to Dochety has achieved two relevant reasons to buy Newman: job security and role. Apart from the GWS game where he scored 48, he has scored 75-115. Upcoming fixtures against Geelong, Collingwood and North should allow for plenty of play in Carlton’s backline. The advantage for the Carlton distributor is that Weitering and Jones who take the intercepts generally are wanting to dish off and this is where Newman can get those easy plus 6’s (apart from kickins). Probably a better buy than Bowes because of his role, Plowman is the third tall and Newman will not playing a lockdown role on anyone.

Adam Cerra

$574k
R16 98
AVG 80.7
BE 80

The upcoming fixtures will be critical with Fremantle potentially having a run of three games at Optus in a few weeks’ time, which makes Cerra a watch. But I think many coaches will look at Fremantle and West Coast players if they start playing at Optus.  T Kelly and Yeo are better options because of their upside, but Cerra is still value if he can eradicate the odd 56 type game he dished up against Collingwood. Upcoming games against Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney who concede high scores to midfielders before games at Optus (if you have the cash Brayshaw is an option, but he is not massive value- except for his potential to average 110 for the run home).

Lance Franklin

$511k
R16 92
AVG 72
BE 63

I don’t think I’ve ever owned Franklin because of his injury history, but he is value for anyone who loves risk. Sydney play Bulldogs, GWS and Fremantle and maybe Lance’s desire to kick 1000 goals might give him the impetus to score heavily in one of those three games. North forwards looked dangerous with Zurhaar after half time, and Goldstein plus the GWS defence looks shaky with Buckley’s injury.  I couldn’t do it, but he could get 6-8 goals in one of those games and score 130 (he could hurt a hamstring and get 25 also).

Matthew Rowell

$442k
R16 71
AVG 51
BE 59

I thought I’d include Rowell because there might be some coaches who have no cash to upgrade from Byrnes and Poulter, and Rowell should average more than them on the run home. He looked tentative 4 weeks back against Fremantle (48) and also against Port (64) and North (57), but he looked better in both his running capacity and tackling (4). He played 98 minutes of 119 against North two weeks ago, but just looked average whilst against the Tigers he played 103 of 121. I would consider Rowell as a sideways upgrade from a maxed-out rookie if I had limited other options. For example, you could get rid of an under-performing Sidebottom or an injured mid to Dangerfield and instead of dropping from Poulter to Connolly you could go from Poulter to Rowell if it meant not having to field Connolly on ground. The main caveat would be, what will his role look like when Greenwood returns?

Upshot: I was traveling ok with my De Goey and Kennedy trades until Macrae as captain reminded me why I should have VC’d Merrett- them’s the fantasy breaks. 2167 and 1779. This week I am probably going Dangerfield (depending on his dodgy ankle) and a rookie like Connolly or some yet to be named rookie and punting both Poulter and Byrnes. Good luck everyone!

Trent Sutcliffe, coach of 'aluniesheis', won AFL Fantasy Classic in 2020, one of the most challenging seasons to date.

131 Comments

131 Comments

  1. Henry

    July 7, 2021 at 9:40 am

    It’s probably not the best time to get rid of Weightman but considering he should only go up another $15 – $20k would you offload him for a Kennedy or DeGoey?

    • Aluniesheis

      July 7, 2021 at 12:35 pm

      If that was your only option, yes because he could go 50 this week against the Swans defence.

  2. Sean

    July 7, 2021 at 9:46 am

    Which trade is best?
    1. Idun to Connolly and Weightman to De Goey (field Bianco and Heeny)
    2. Idun to Connolly and Heeny to Dangerfield (field Bianco and Weightman)
    3. Gaff to De Goey and Idun to Bowes (field Heeny and Weightman)

    • Aluniesheis

      July 7, 2021 at 12:34 pm

      2- get Heeney off your field and Bianco and W are okay for a week, unless Gaff still out.

  3. Stan

    July 7, 2021 at 10:11 am

    Is James Harmes a value pick ?

    • Aluniesheis

      July 7, 2021 at 12:33 pm

      No- he was about 10 weeks ago, but now I think he will average 80 for the run home, unless one of the mids gets injured.

  4. Charlie

    July 7, 2021 at 10:13 am

    Newman and Kennedy or Danger and Kennedy

    • Aluniesheis

      July 7, 2021 at 12:33 pm

      Newman v Danger , what a world we are in, but that is my question also. For me, it is dependent on which rookie I am getting off ground. I already have Kennedy at F6 and so Newman to D6 rather than Bianco is probably how i’ll decide.

  5. K

    July 7, 2021 at 10:52 am

    Is Dusty to Danger worth it?

    • Aluniesheis

      July 7, 2021 at 12:31 pm

      No- sideways trade-

  6. Nick

    July 7, 2021 at 11:33 am

    Which 3 players should I field?
    Weightman, Bianco, Madden, Connolly, Newcombe, Sharp, Bramble, Amartey or Briggs

    • K

      July 7, 2021 at 11:49 am

      Amartey, Bianco then one of the others (not Madden or Connolly)

    • Aluniesheis

      July 7, 2021 at 12:30 pm

      Weightman, Bianco, and maybe Newcombe

  7. Josh

    July 7, 2021 at 11:54 am

    Good value article as per usual. A little stuck this week. Thoughts?

    Whitfield, laird, crisp, short, Houston, harmes (madden, bianco)
    Titch, Merrett, mills, Taranto, Pendlebury, Brayshaw, Walsh, sharp ( Newcombe, ronin)
    Grundy, rob (hunter)
    Zorko, hunter, Langford, hall, Kelly, amarthey (Williams, finlay m.

    Have 279 in the back. I am 5k off going madden to 170k and getting danger for hunter thus moving amartey to R3.

    I can get rid off bianco and keep amartey. Or just get rid of madden and amartey for danger. Still want cash gen. Thanks

    • Aluniesheis

      July 7, 2021 at 12:29 pm

      Amartey still good for a week and so is Bianco. Madden out and maybe one of the midpricers like Harmes or Houston and then move Mills and see what you can get as a midfield upgrade.

  8. cody

    July 7, 2021 at 12:13 pm

    hey trent. thinking treacy put this week for a 170k rookie if named. then it’s between bailey smith and james harmes to danger. i’m assuming baz is the better trade out is harmes is a pretty safe 80
    cheers

    • Aluniesheis

      July 7, 2021 at 12:27 pm

      Agreed and his role hasn’t changed as much as I thought with Viney back- a solid 80 before he gets upgraded.

  9. Allan Ball

    July 7, 2021 at 1:46 pm

    Hi Trent Am I crazy to go J Kelly and Treacy for Stringer and M Kennedy Been rocking Treacy at F6 for the last 2 weeks and just going him to P Dow feels wrong scored 2250 and 2360 the last 2 weeks even with Treacy and have bugger all cash generation. Thanks

    • Aluniesheis

      July 7, 2021 at 4:46 pm

      I would not be selling J Kelly. Who is you highest priced non player, sell them to a rookie and upgrade Treacy to a player at least with a low BE.

  10. Campbell

    July 7, 2021 at 2:52 pm

    Any defender / fwd under 791 k ?

    • Aluniesheis

      July 7, 2021 at 4:45 pm

      1. Mills 2. Whitfield whilst weirdly the most consistent at 651 is I. Smith. But if you want DPP Def/FWD than you are stuck at Ziebell and now is not the time for Ziebell.

  11. JMD567

    July 7, 2021 at 3:11 pm

    Hey Trent, No rookies on field now, so Trade outs targets: Markov, Dusty, Greene, Ridley, Houston, Cumming. Not sure who to trade out first initial thoughts were
    1) Markov and Bianco -> Neale or Petracca and Bench Rookie
    2) Greene and Bianco -> Dangerfield and Bench Rookie
    3) Greene and Bianco -> Zorko and Bench Rookie
    4) Markov, Greene -> DeGoey and Dangerfield
    What do you think Trent? Love you work as always, who would be priority, Dangerfield, Zorko, Petracca or Neale?

    • Aluniesheis

      July 7, 2021 at 4:42 pm

      Any of those options are good- but if Neale fit he is a gun, and Zorko as a FWD is a top option. Because of his forward status Zorko and then Danger. The other two can be bought any week.

  12. Johno

    July 7, 2021 at 3:21 pm

    Is it worth trading Phillips and CJ to Kennedy and Newman? My remaining 2 rookies are out scoring them and not leaking cash

    • Aluniesheis

      July 7, 2021 at 4:40 pm

      Absolutely

  13. Bombers

    July 7, 2021 at 4:09 pm

    Hi Trent, would appreciate your advice on the following trades.
    A. Lachie Jones to Neale or Adams via dpp and Harmes to Dangerfield or,
    B. Jones to Petracca and Dusty to Dangerfield.
    Leaves me with 1 rookie on the field.

    • Aluniesheis

      July 7, 2021 at 4:40 pm

      B i think- Neale and Adams should be higher than Petracca and Dusty has a ceiling higher than Harmes even though they may end up similar.

  14. Scott

    July 7, 2021 at 5:20 pm

    Hey Trent,
    I’m trading Markov out and will have $846K to spend. Should I get Mills or similar priced defender or use money to get in Grundy. Amartey currenlty R2. Maybe down to Newman and have extra money for next week. Too many options!!
    Already downgraded Jones to Garcia for cash.

    • Aluniesheis

      July 7, 2021 at 10:53 pm

      Grundy. Mills can be bought any week.

  15. Campbell

    July 7, 2021 at 5:56 pm

    Thoughts on Dan Houston/Cumming / Martin hold or trade ?

    • Aluniesheis

      July 7, 2021 at 10:52 pm

      Hold all I think this week. But the 2 Def are trades

  16. K

    July 7, 2021 at 7:14 pm

    Hi Trent, I’m stuck with my F5 and F6 (Amartey and Briggs/Brockman). Not much other cash gen, so would you recommend downgrading an option like Crouch or Short, to upgrade a FWD? And I have Bianco and Bramble as cash gen atm. So stuck this week. Thanks

    • Aluniesheis

      July 7, 2021 at 10:51 pm

      Maybe just get rid of 2 non players this week for cash generators and try and get a good player next week through Bianco.

      • K

        July 8, 2021 at 8:21 am

        Good idea, thanks Trent

  17. Plugger

    July 7, 2021 at 7:46 pm

    Is Phillips to Stringer a sideways trade or a good enough upgrade?

    • Adrian

      July 7, 2021 at 8:33 pm

      Bowes or T.Kelly?

      • Aluniesheis

        July 7, 2021 at 10:49 pm

        Kelly

    • Aluniesheis

      July 7, 2021 at 10:50 pm

      Ok because of the cash Stringer will make and his ceiling

  18. James

    July 7, 2021 at 10:24 pm

    Hi Trent. Trade Houston or Haynes?

    • Aluniesheis

      July 7, 2021 at 10:49 pm

      Haynes

  19. Jj

    July 7, 2021 at 10:30 pm

    Kennedy or Bowes?

    • Aluniesheis

      July 7, 2021 at 10:48 pm

      Kennedys role looks more assured

  20. Tani

    July 8, 2021 at 4:20 am

    Walsh and Danger or steele and stringer? Thanks champ.

  21. Jess

    July 8, 2021 at 8:02 am

    Hi Trent. I still have one rookie on field (Newcome/Bramble). I can’t upgrade to anyone decent so would you downgrade two red dots to any 170k to get cash for next week? Or look at one downgrade and go:
    1. Dusty to Darcy
    2. Harmes/Houston to Lloyd

    Thanks

  22. Kaihla

    July 8, 2021 at 8:29 am

    Need to trade 2 mid priced defenders. 1 being Daniels the other could be Ridley, Houston or Haynes. Will bring in Danger and most likely Tim Kelly. Will DPP move laird and Whitfield to backline.

  23. Ramsdale@hotmail.com

    July 8, 2021 at 3:45 pm

    Trent you legend, trading hind to De goey or Tom Stewart which allows me to go Dev Robertson to Petracca or Oliver
    Thoughts on these trades?

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