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Trent’s Take: Sub-$600k Targets

Last year’s winner looks at a range of options for you tro bring in.

The fixture chaos makes it difficult to plan but plan we must. At this time of year, we are attempting to trade out maxed out players to premiums or players of value. No one needs help buying a premium midfielder priced over 800 K. So, today’s aim is to give some trading options to the not so uber-premiums. I’ll look at players priced below 600 K (apart from the ruck situation where it is just finding a way of getting whoever you have at R2 to Grundy in the next few weeks).

DEFENDERS

Jordan Ridley: 566 K with a BE of 74 and 11% Ownership. Ridley’s last two scores are 87 and 90 as it looks like Essendon are now using Hind as a more attacking weapon rather than as a defensive transition player. I still think Ridley’s score is maxed to 90-95 with Heppell and Redman in the side, but it looks like he won’t end up as a lockdown player as long as Laverde and Stewart are in the side.  After the Geelong game, Essendon play Adelaide, North and GWS and 3 of them at Marvel where he averages 92. Importantly, apart from Geelong none of those sides have three massive talls, unlike the Eagles which is where Ridley scored 54. I’d take another look after Geelong and then look to sideways a maxed-out rookie to Ridley in R17 (like Bianco).

Brad Sheppard: 493 K with a BE of 79 and 1% Ownership. Sheppard is a gun player whose score is affected by a KO’d 6 in R12 and a poor 45 in R10.  However, either side of those scores are 105, 80, 73, 105, 90. Sheppard is a legitimate 85 average player and would be a good steppingstone to the more uber premiums in the weeks to come. For example, via DPP, you could just straight swap Poulter to Sheppard. West Coast won’t be as terrible against Sydney, North, Adelaide, and St Kilda in the coming weeks.

Nick Haynes:  556 K with a BE of 43 and 7 % Ownership. I bought Haynes 2 weeks back, but he is still value. He did loiter around the wing on occasions, but he also just gobbles us plus 6’s when in the last line of defence. It is now or never for Haynes, but because of his burgeoning ownership, you might want to find value in other players.  Last three scores of 107, 95, and 95 and with upcoming fixtures against Melbourne, Suns, Sydney, and Essendon means Haynes will continue to get many opportunities. For example, Melbourne conceded 107 and 90 to Heppell and Ridley, whilst the Suns didn’t concede massive scores to North defenders because they conceded them to their midfielders. However, the week before they conceded 103 to Bergman and 98 to DBJ.

Other defenders: Just a few players of interest for the risk desirous: Webster (441K), Hill (465K), B. Williams (475K), Day (516K), Newman (566K) and Bowes (544K).

MIDFIELD

Bailey Smith: 575K with a BE of 72 and 7% Ownership. The Smith rollercoaster was in full force against the Eagles where he scored 127, but just to delve into the role change a bit. His heat map is still on the wing, although he had 3 centre clearances.  However, it was on just the one wing, unlike against Geelong where he was on both wings and had zero possessions in the attacking 50 and only 3 just over the half-way. Against Fremantle it was the same as the Geelong game with Smith loitering on the defensive side of both wings.  Can you trust Beveridge to keep Smith on the wing and centre line- maybe not, but if so, his score will rise.

Elliott Yeo: 594K with a BE of 109 and 0.78% Ownership. I mentioned Yeo as a watch last week and he delivered 60, which screams don’t touch.  Yeo attempted, at times, a run with Bontempelli, which was completely unsuccessful.  The Eagles have a good run after the Sydney game this week: North, Adelaide, St Kilda, Collingwood. If not Yeo, watch the Eagles as getting an under-priced Eagle after this week is a valid play. I like one of Yeo, Gaff, Kelly, or Shuey for the run home.

Blake Acres: 531 K with a BE of 57 and 0.31% Ownership. I mentioned Acres as a value pick last week, and he scored 81 which I think is what he might average on the run home. I have a soft spot for Acres after last years as a forward. Last two scores of 107 and 81 although they are against Collingwood and the Suns.  He is playing both sides of the wing and seems to alternate with Aish (comparing Aish and Acres’ heat maps), which might hold his scoring back a bit. However, he has games against Carlton and Hawthorn which should yield scores around 80 plus.

Other midfielders: for the insane: Kelly (596 K), Menegola (588K), Dumont (590 K), Brayshaw (505 K).

FORWARDS

Jake Stringer: 526 K with a BE of 27 and 1.82% Ownership. I have never once thought of buying Stringer and this will not be the first time, but he is worth an investigation.  His last two weeks heat maps are interesting with him against Melbourne acquiring most of his possessions in the centre arc to go with his 5 clearances (3 CC).  The week before against Hawthorn he played more of the Dusty Martin role where he spilled from stoppages to go forward, but still apart from the centre square most of his possessions were in the forward 50 arc. So, there was a role change even in the last 2 weeks.  Going back to the Richmond game where he scored 56, his map is the same as the Hawthorn game, it is just he didn’t really touch the pill.  The game against Melbourne, where there is now no McGrath, is when Stringer played more on ball.

The risk is two-fold: injury and Shiel. Namely, can his body handle more midfield time, and will it change when Dylan Shiel returns.  He is almost a free hit this week with his BE, but if he scores 60, you may not be able to get rid of him when you want.

Jordan De Goey: 515 K with a BE of 34 and 7% Ownership. Read above for the same risks, but with the added risk of a now fit Pendlebury, the return on Adams, the consistency of Crisp as a midfielder and Harvey as the coach. Where will De Goey play? The game against Melbourne, his heat map is that of a generalist midfielder, whilst the game before against the crows it was the same- it was just his scoring was lower, and this is the same for Geelong. So, that is three weeks where he has played predominately as a roaming midfielder.  Team selection will be interesting, namely who does De Goey come in for? Also, with Elliott back, does that free De Goey, especially at stoppages to play as the extra midfielder who will roam forward. I think De Goey is a better option than Stringer, mainly because of Elliott playing the old De Goey role.

Matthew Kennedy: 507 K with a BE of 52 and 9.86% Ownership. I am staggered by his ownership stats. He’s injury interrupted start to the year had scores of 22 and 44 (Medi-sub in R4 for 22).  His last two weeks are 110 and 93.  The problem is, is Kennedy’s JS safe or will he be the medi-sub next week. With Murphy’s injury, he at least has some more JS.  Just be prepared for a low score every now and then like his 44 against the Power where he had 88 min on ground and scored 44 as a midfielder.  If you like Kennedy, this is the week, but I’d rather the risk with the string or kmart dusty.

Other forwards: for the amnesiacs among us: Walker (542K), Stephenson (580K) Duryea (555K), Heeney (546 K), Franklin (500K) Rozee (526K).

Upshot: For me I will look at a simple one up and one down option with fattened cows. Last week was okay with 2242 and ranked 1399. Good Luck all!

Co-captain of DT Talk since we started this thing in 2007. Best finish was 13th in 2009... that was a long time ago. Follow on Twitter: @WarnieDT

129 Comments

129 Comments

  1. Battered Savs

    at

    Hey Trent,
    135k in the bank;
    D – Laird, Houston, Short, Lukosius, Haynes, Highmore (Briggs/Parks)
    M – Macrae, Titch, Wines, Merrett, Bont, Parish, Ward, Harmes (Bianco/Newcombe)
    R – Gawn, Grundy (Hunter)
    F – Hall, Dusty, Pendles, Zac Bailey, Hind, Amartey (A.Scott/H.Jones)
    U – Brockman

    Trade Hind to Stringer & Amartey/Jones/Scott to DeGoat, leaving Higbmore as only rookie onfield? or downgrade rookies/underperforming mid-pricers for more cash on better forward line upgrades in future weeks?

    • Aluniesheis

      at

      I think so, as Amartey might force your hand by getting dropped for Sinclair, but I am not a fan of Amartey against West Coast. The double Stringer and De Goey is risky, but it could work wonders.

  2. Josh

    at

    Hi Legends,

    Thoughts on these trades

    Dale to Haynes
    Walsh to Grundy

    Cheers

    • Daniel

      at

      Wouldn’t trade Walsh yet, he’s still a premo and I’m sure there are rookies to be traded before him

      • Aby Benny

        at

        yeah 123 last week hold

  3. Mike

    at

    Hi Lads,

    Should I hold parish or trade him. If traded it allows me to get a rookie of my field

    Cheers

    • Ando the brain dead barfly

      at

      Hold fo shizza

    • Aluniesheis

      at

      Hold and VC

  4. Gallos

    at

    Which trade is best?
    1. Weightman and Cox to Sharp and Haynes (field Poulter, Idun/Bianco and Newcombe)
    2. Weightman and Idun to Sharp and Haynes (field Poulter, Cox/Bianco and Newcombe)
    3. Poulter and Cox to Sharp and Grundy (field Weightman, Idun/Bianco and Newcombe)
    4. Poulter and Idun to Sharp and Grundy (field Weightman, Cox/Sharp and Newcombe)
    5. Idun and Cox to Sharp and Haynes (field Poulter, Weighthman/Bianco and Newcombe)

    • Aluniesheis

      at

      Poulter and Cox to Sharp and Grundy. Have to be careful getting two players out, only to get two more players who will require being traded later.

  5. Henry

    at

    Thanks Trent!

    1) Phillips and Hind > Grundy and Sharp

    2) Phillips and Weightman > Neale and 170k fwd

    • Aby Benny

      at

      1

      • Aluniesheis

        at

        1 everyday

  6. Tim

    at

    Good Trades ?

    Dale and Docherty to Grundy and Brad Shepard

    Thanks

    • Aluniesheis

      at

      Yep- lock it in- similar to myself this week- although Grundy against the saints pair is a minor concern.

  7. Ben

    at

    Good DEF/FW options under 555k preferably averaging a 75-85 from here till the end of the season

    • Aluniesheis

      at

      Sheppard, Stringer, De Goey and Kennedy

  8. Mike

    at

    Need some help with trades, have plummeted in ranking since the bye
    1) Poulter + Hind > Stringer + Houston
    2) Poulter +Treacy (Bench) > L. Hunter + Connoly (Bench)

    • Aluniesheis

      at

      2- others seem a bit sideways

  9. JMD012

    at

    Hey Trent, sorry to double up but I have realised I actually have another option.
    I could actually do:
    Option 1) Kosi and Scott -> Grundy and Bench rookie (Bramble or hoping for 170k rookie named tonight)
    Otherwise the other option would be
    Option 2) Markov and Kosi -> Grundy and Bench Rookie (Neale next week, and would have to field one of Scott, Amartey or Kosi)
    This would mean mean I would have Markov this extra week, because you would assume he would score more than both Scott, Kosi and Amartey this week. And then use Markov and Amartey to trade out next week for Neale. Just need to hope Markov can get close to his Breakeven 79 and Neale doesn’t go too far in front of his Breakeven 111.
    This will probably work better?

    • Aluniesheis

      at

      Neale is gone- so replace him in your thinking with Adams

  10. James

    at

    Great stuff Trent. Good luck for this week. I have a couple of options which I am stuck on which may be a common dilemma this week.

    So I keep Z Williams, upgrade Robertson to danger, and have fingers crossed one rookie next week…but still with Haynes, Hind, amongst other trash

    Or keep Williams, upgrade Hind to Whitfield, and have two rookies next week but also still have trash…or scrap both options and just go Jordan De Goey :D

    • Aluniesheis

      at

      tough= if you have trash on ground you want your trades to be for premiums- Get Whitfield or Danger

  11. James

    at

    Hi Trent
    Please help.

    Hind to Dusty or
    ROB to Danger?

    • Aluniesheis

      at

      Hind to Dusty

  12. Luke

    at

    With madden out, he was gonna be my last rook on field (no one better due to limited dpp)
    Hind to Grundy, doch to Newman (field Treacy)
    Or
    Doch to sharp (last rook on field) Treacy to Grundy?
    Top couple hundred and wanna stay there please ❤️

    • Michael Kuhni

      at

      1. (Grundy 110, Newman 90, Treacy 45) = 245
      2. (Sharp 65, Hind 70 , Grundy 110) = 245

      I think they’ll probably score the same so I’d go the option getting rid of Hind as he’s bleeding cash. See if you can loophole treacy with a different rook to get a look at his score?

      Sharp will generate probably 150k over the next few weeks but it depends how many cash cows you have left. You only have 4-5 rounds of one-ups, one-downs… Then you’ll start sideways trading premos to catch the form players and good runs.

    • Aluniesheis

      at

      Lock in Grundy. Newman won’t be play Adelaide every week, eve if he goes okay this week against Fremantle

  13. Josh

    at

    Hi Legends and Trent,

    Any help with my trades this week would be much appreciated

    DEF: Crisp, Docherty, Stewart, Cumming , Houston and Bianco

    MIDS: Macrae, Parish, Taranto, Titch, Merrett , Oliver, Walsh, Newcombe

    RUC: Gawn, Amartey

    FWD: Zorko, Kelly, Hall, Hunter, Martin, Dale

    Was thinking about trading Docherty and Dale to Grundy and Stringer allowing me to then get Amartey off my field

    Cheers.

    • Aluniesheis

      at

      Do it- Amartey might not even play this week.

  14. Wei

    at

    Poulter and Haynes or Weightman and Grundy?

    • Aluniesheis

      at

      Grundy and someone else, i wouldn’t be getting Weightman in.

  15. Martin

    at

    Haynes or Ridley for hind

    • Aluniesheis

      at

      Haynes better short term value

  16. Scott

    at

    G’day Trent.
    My team atm with 386K

    D: Crisp, Haynes, Markov, Stewart, Laird, Ridley (Jones, Highmore)
    M: Taranto, Macrae, Mitchell, Wines, Pendlebury, Neale, Kelly, Bianco (Newcombe, Sharp)
    R: Gawn, Amartey (Reeves)
    F: Martin, Kelly, Phillips, Robertson, Hall, Poulter (Macrae, Wilson)
    U: Fullarton

    Had always planned on Phillips and Poulter to Dangerfield and Whitfield. Not desperate for Grundy this week as hopefully other two can match points. However if Neale is late out, maybe could trade him to Grundy. I know Amartey won’t score as well but at least he is playing and saves a trade. Trying to avoid bringing in other rookies as still have a few to get rid of,

    Your thoughts appreciated.

    • Aluniesheis

      at

      You have great options with the cash reserve. I’d be still getting Amartey to the bench. Selling Fullarton and moving Reeves to UTI. Then trying to get Grundy. Maybe Jones to a rookie, you still have Highmore as cover and then Fullarton, although if you need cash you could punt Poulter/Phillips and move Amartey to the forward line.

  17. subdub

    at

    Best midfielder to bring in under $730k? Looking at Boak, Danger, Redden and Adams.

    Leaning towards Boak as Port have a good run home but do see the value in Danger, although he should be cheaper next week. Not sure if I can trust Redden to keep scoring and Adams to stay fit.

    Any help appreciated.

    • Burnt

      at

      I think you have summed it up well. I dont trust Danger or Adams to stay fit. not sure about Redden, although he has 2% ownership. Boak for me.

      • Petracca

        at

        Which is the biggest point upgrade:
        1. ROB to Grundy
        2. Serong to Lloyd
        3. Harmes to Crisp, Petracca, Adams (anyone under $757k essentially)
        4. Newcombe or Bianco (move to bench after trading out Waterman) to Matt Kennedy (risky!)

        • Aluniesheis

          at

          Serong has to go- Lloyd leaking cash for a few weeks. What about Maynard.

    • Aluniesheis

      at

      Boak is super consistent and durable.

  18. Nick

    at

    Which two rookies should I field?
    Sharp’s 62, Newcombe, Bramble, Weightman or Armartey

    • Aluniesheis

      at

      Sharp

  19. Burnt

    at

    62 in the bank from Sharp is good buying.

  20. SMith

    at

    Whitfield or Mills?

    • Aluniesheis

      at

      Whitfield has the higher ceiling

  21. Andrew

    at

    Option 1: Heeney to Sheppard, Dev Robertson to Dangerfield
    Option 2: Heeney to Ridley, L Parks downgrade or lateral trade to playing rookie (e.g. Leo Connolly, Pedlar, Eddie Ford etc.)

    • Aluniesheis

      at

      Ridley will probably outscore Sheppard, but obviously Danger is a good buy. I wouldn’t be trusting any of those rookies unless Connolly named to start. Overall, I’d go 2 if Connolly named (assuming he is not on your ground).

  22. Hotwheels

    at

    Hey guys, would you go Danger or Hunter for Dev Robbo?

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